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Pivot Trading

  • #33,801
  • Edited 2:45pm Jan 11, 2020 2:34pm | Edited 2:45pm
Quoting Davit
Hi guys after careful thinking this is what I like to do going forward.I had today over 173 viewers 95% none members lurking etc and one even started his thread who got banned from here basically copying everything from here my work.That's going to stop. No more live calls. I am going to post only Fridays after the trading week is over posting my results and feedback on others trades.If there is something I really like you to see I will PM you.(there is no list so dont PM ask I know who core group members are and members who put honest work) People...
I follow your thread every day, not to copy your trades, but to try and get into your mind, how you look at the market, how you manage risk, your attitude, your drive....I can’t think of a trade that I copied from you, rather I tried to dissect your trade to make it part of how I should analyze a trade going forward. When you took some time off I defended your methods where I could, tried to show my support for what you taught us, so I apologize for not posting much since then as my agenda changed a bit when you returned as I began to study some Price Action through Gartly, Gann, Jenkins, Beck methods to make my entries a bit more precise....but all of my trading use weekly pivots as the base, not an add on.

I have grown as a trader since coming into contact with the best thread in FF, not just because of your posts, but also the posts of all the friends here who I know would say the same. You made us think about our flawed methods, our reliance on lagging indicators and so on. But you also made us think about price action, patterns and so on. 2 years ago I thought GARTLY was a scam to make traders have colourful charts....how very wrong that thinking was. YOU changed my thinking and I will be forever grateful for that...so THANK YOU!

A couple of months ago I removed all my subscriptions to all threads as I needed some private time for which I prefer not to elaborate....but this is the best thread in FF bar none...that opinion I own....how you proceed is your business, but just know many of us are not lurkers, but learners who value what is being taught here. Hope we can share a glass of wine someday,I would like to meet you in person. Maybe you will do the trading show in Vegas or something that many of us would go to.
  • #33,802
  • Jan 11, 2020 8:15pm Jan 11, 2020 8:15pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I think you made a mistake.Based on the chart you posted its other way around what is shocking almost -3% daily WOW no way to hold this beyond a day.It sure will drain the account. {image} {image}
Absolutely correct !!!
my mistake
usd/JPy short is negative swap
thank you for observe it
  • #33,803
  • Jan 11, 2020 8:19pm Jan 11, 2020 8:19pm
Quoting ppxdf
{quote} oanda charge us according each currency pair will have different financing rates. For example 14 November UJ USD/JPY 0.89% for short and -2.99% for long https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post12618243

correction

For example 14 November UJ USD/JPY 0.89% for Long and -2.99% for short
  • #33,804
  • Jan 11, 2020 8:52pm Jan 11, 2020 8:52pm
Quoting Cryptosurf
{quote} Honestly that’s been tried here before and failed miserably. Just turned into a time suck with idle chatter and unwanted childish drama. Plus not really conducive for posting and analyzing charts in an organized manner. I post when I can, but my trading comes first. Sure there’s a lot of lurkers here, but those that want to develop as traders need to just post their questions, challenges etc., and will find help.
Thank you Cryptosurf
but I did not say Telegram could substitute FF.
here is the main place for posting and analyzing charts.
i say telegram might be used for live calls and feedback instead no live calls and feedback only on Friday here on FF.
  • #33,805
  • Jan 11, 2020 11:57pm Jan 11, 2020 11:57pm
Quoting Swede
{quote} I follow your thread every day, not to copy your trades, but to try and get into your mind, how you look at the market, how you manage risk, your attitude, your drive....I can’t think of a trade that I copied from you, rather I tried to dissect your trade to make it part of how I should analyze a trade going forward. When you took some time off I defended your methods where I could, tried to show my support for what you taught us, so I apologize for not posting much since then as my agenda changed a bit when you returned as I began to study...
==========
Spoken like a true scholar and gentleman, Swede.
Yes, I will join the two of you and a multitude of others here.
Continued success to you.
Hercs.
Hercs
  • #33,806
  • Jan 12, 2020 12:02am Jan 12, 2020 12:02am
Quoting Hyperfire
{quote} Greetings Hercs, thank you for your kind word. Please over ADR_V2 indicator tab over general setting window check the first two settings over there, the first is " Allow DLL imports" the second one should be "Allow external experts imports" and check if this solve the issue, of course to the same with other indicator if needed. Hope it helps. Take care H. {image}
=====
Hi there H,
Yes, that is the first thing I checked and they were correct.
I found the EA, but I was warned that their site is a scam, so I backed off.
Is there anyone else that could assist me in finding this "ftc_EAlib" please?
Best wishes,
Hercs.
Hercs
  • #33,807
  • Jan 12, 2020 4:40am Jan 12, 2020 4:40am
Hello,
I just post now because I spent almost a year to improve my skills as a trader with Pivots.
I waited a long time this moment, to be the proof that with hard work, dedication and a lot of discipline you can succeed.
I will post my story in a concise way hoping to help people who are struggling with this incredible system, by Davit.

I have started to trade in 2015, but with Pivots only in February 2019 and in the most humble way I kept my head down on learning everything that I could in this thread. In te first months I had positive results, not great, but positive. I wanted more. I have had these results until the trade war in May hit me hard (like a lot of people here). So, I have changed my method. I decided to plan my learning process in blocks. The first one the Price Action. After months and months on the same charts you understand a lot of concepts and movements really important (Now I really understand the concept PA is queen). So in June and July I saw improvements both in my skills and in my results.
Second block. The Pivots. Once I implemented them my results grew exponentially touching an overall of 8,36% gain in December and already more than 5% in January, seeing in this way the 10% monthly goal in front of me, thing that was a completely mirage less than a year ago.
Now it's time for me to focus on the third block, the events and the calendar. And all I can say is that giving the exponentially results that I had in these months of hard work and dedication I am a little be thrilled about what can I accomplish in the days to come.
After all this months I can say that trading is also a journey in which you develop skills thank to great habits helpful to succeed in the long run.
Now I'm ready to contribute in the most efficient way in this thread.

I wanna be really thankful with Davit for really everything, reporting a quote by Maxwel Maltz already reported by him numerous times, that means really a lot for me.
"We must have courage to bet on our ideas, to take the calculated risk, and to act. Everyday living requires courage if life is to be effective and bring happiness." Maxwell Maltz

I leave my results of my two accounts here attached to my story.
Attached Images
Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand, and I will move the Earth
  • #33,808
  • Edited 8:11am Jan 12, 2020 4:52am | Edited 8:11am
My first public calendar. I would love feedback, positive or negative. The best thing to learn.

Mon
CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey It can give some indications about the decision of next week about the rate statement on Wednesday 22.
Some rumors about a rate cut (not so good data also between GDP, Retail Sales and CPI) prior to last employment release of last Friday that changed this view.
Looking to long AC and UC if good opportunities come.
NZD NZIER Business Confidence Previous -40. The only important NZ data that can move the market beside CPI on Thursday 23 and employment data on Wednesday 5.
This indicator is decreasing since January 2017 with consistent worse data in all 2019. Considering that the span of time of this indicator is 2019 Q4 we may expect worse data for the last effects on trade war.
It can hit the overvalued NZD with bad data. Watching AN and NU

Tue
USD CPI m/m Forecast of 0.2% from 0.3% Watching for UC longs
USD Core CPI m/m Forecast of 0.2% from 0.2%

Wed
USD Core PPI m/m Forecast of 0.2% from -0.2% Positive data expected. It can boost USD especially with good CPI data the day before
USD PPI m/m Forecast of 0.2% from 0.0%
USD Phase-one trade deal sign between China and U.S. Different sources say that this will be the day of the sign. It can boost different pairs like USD, AUD, NZD.
AUD and NZD could be also affected by not so great conditions signed by China

Thu
EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts I don't expect a change of tone of ECB about its policy and I don't think this will be a market mover event, although some pairs are in a good shape for long retracements (EC, EN)
By the way I am not so comfortable yet to long Eur so let's see
EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
USD Core Retail Sales m/m Forecast of 0.5% from 0.1% Great opportunities to boost USD here. Looking for UC and NU
USD Retail Sales m/m Forecast of 0.3% from 0.2%
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Forecast of 4.5% from 0.3%

Fri
CNY GDP q/y Forecast of 6.0% from 6.0%. It is constantly decreasing since January 2018 and with the last Q4 affected by the trade war I will not be surprised if GDP print red. AUD and NZD could be affected.
GBP Retail Sales m/m Forecast of 0.8% from -0.6% Super positive forecasts are expected. Personally I do not trade GBP unless I see a great opportunity in front of me
*Trump impeachment Senate trial. Can it be this week? A huge sell-off of USD started when the impeachment occurred so it may be another opportunity to boost USD. I didn't find anything about the specific date of the trial.
I will closely look AC, AN and UC for longs. EC and EN could give also great opportunities But I have to be careful with the swaps.
I will sell EA and EU if they rebound up providing good selling opportunities.
Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand, and I will move the Earth
  • #33,809
  • Jan 12, 2020 8:52am Jan 12, 2020 8:52am
My Calendar Events week three January

Sharp focus on USD and AUD this week.

Mon
GBP GDP m/m I usually don't trade GBP. Just putting as a reference. Outside of the numbers, Brexit will continue to be the main area of focus. Just 2 weeks remain until UK leaves the EU and enters the transition period.
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m -0.3% 0.2%.
CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey This report is highly respected given its source and timing in relation to interest rate decisions. It can also have predictive qualities regarding future economic conditions because the surveyed firms are selected in accordance with their composition of the nation's GDP. Direction through the week may come from market risk appetite and influence on crude oil prices. Any re-escalation in the Middle East would be positive for CAD. The Phase 1 Trade agreement between US-China are positive as well.
NZD NZIER Business Confidence Previous data came -40. Watching AN for longs if this shows a negative reading.

Tues
CNY Trade Balance
USD CPI m/m Projection of 0.2% from 0.3%. Watching UC for longs on a pullback.
USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%.

Weds
GBP CPI y/y 1.5% 1.5%
EUR Industrial Production m/m This may not be a mover. Germany and France released production data on previous week. Both account for about half of the Eurozone's economy.
USD Core PPI m/m To edge up 0.2% from -0.2%. UC on watchlist for longs.
USD PPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
AUD Phase 1 Trade deal Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit Washington to sign the Phase 1 trade deal with the U.S. on Wednesday, which will deescalate the trade war between the two sides. While the signing is risk positive, the markets will want to know what’s next. Watching AC and AN for longs, maybe EA for shorts on a rally up.

Thurs
EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
USD Core Retail Sales m/m Projection to edge up 0.5% from 0.1%. UC still is my prime candidate for longs.
Depending on market sentiment, USD may get sell-off on earlier on the week or could appreciate, pricing the good news, then on the release of the data, go to opposite direction. This happened to CAD last week. This may happen as well to AUD this week, let's see. Here is a Davit's post that may worth reading about this.
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks She doesn't shared much of her views on the last press conference. Let's see on this.
NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index
CNY GDP q/y Projection of 6.0%. A positive reading should be positive for AUD and NZD.

Fri
GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.8% -0.6%

I am looking to UC and AC for longs and maybe EA for shorts.
Let's pile the pips!
"In the end you only trade yourself."
  • #33,810
  • Jan 12, 2020 10:20am Jan 12, 2020 10:20am
Quoting artestine
Hello, I just post now because I spent almost a year to improve my skills as a trader with Pivots. I waited a long time this moment, to be the proof that with hard work, dedication and a lot of discipline you can succeed. I will post my story in a concise way hoping to help people who are struggling with this incredible system, by Davit. I have started to trade in 2015, but with Pivots only in February 2019 and in the most humble way I kept my head down on learning everything that I could in this thread. In te first months I had positive results,...
Truly a great story......so Davit, can you see what is happening with those in the background who may not be posting much until their ready? They are just as valuable to your thread as the vocal ones because they are benefiting from your teachings, same as the vocal ones. Your posting only your weekly results tells me what I already know....your a better trader than I am. But when you say your watching EA for example, we soon discern the events that peaked your interest, soon we are ahead of you by finding these on our own....your teaching has been outstanding in that regard! Some, like me, only take a few trades per week, but they usually result in nice profits because they are based on your principals,,,not because you spoon fed us the trade but because you may have alerted the house to your focus, or interest. Anyway, just my two pips bouncing of the weekly pivot..lol
  • #33,811
  • Jan 12, 2020 1:35pm Jan 12, 2020 1:35pm
Quoting R61
My Calendar Events week three January Sharp focus on USD and AUD this week. Mon GBP GDP m/m I usually don't trade GBP. Just putting as a reference. Outside of the numbers, Brexit will continue to be the main area of focus. Just 2 weeks remain until UK leaves the EU and enters the transition period. GBP Manufacturing Production m/m -0.3% 0.2%. CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey This report is highly respected given its source and timing in relation to interest rate decisions. It can also have predictive qualities regarding future economic conditions...
Your results have been impressive here and shows just doing what I ask will gave great results.
Just a little reminder when doing the caladar never say I will long or short always put POSSIBLE trade option.This allows flexibility to see where PA will lead next week and often it goes very different then what you thought...
So to conclude dont hard wire yourself of action that has not materialized in charts in PA.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #33,812
  • Jan 12, 2020 1:36pm Jan 12, 2020 1:36pm
Quoting artestine
My first public calendar. I would love feedback, positive or negative. The best thing to learn. Mon CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey It can give some indications about the decision of next week about the rate statement on Wednesday 22. Some rumors about a rate cut (not so good data also between GDP, Retail Sales and CPI) prior to last employment release of last Friday that changed this view. Looking to long AC and UC if good opportunities come. NZD NZIER Business Confidence Previous -40. The only important NZ data that can move the market beside...
nicely done and welcome!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #33,813
  • Jan 12, 2020 4:58pm Jan 12, 2020 4:58pm
Hello Davit and all,

Like Artesine, I have been a trader for some time but always hesitant to post my analysis. I get to the end of the weekly events, try to see the bias for the pairs that make sense to trade, then wait for the charts to give me a good entry location. I am more simple in my mind than many of the analysis giants here so have waited to post, wanting it to be right. Davit, I know you get those people who want to troll and make mud. You have changed my life for the better so I am going to try to post, even if it is not completely the best. This I started before I read your post 33,793.

SUN
AUD TD Securities Inflation, considered of moderate impact, an estimate of AUD inflation, decreased through 2019 from 1.9 to 1.5, likely to remain unchanged at 1.5 today, with little or no impact

MON
GBP – spate of news, trade balance, index of services etc with expected low impact and projected negative numbers, Manufacturing and industrial production, GDP all moderate impact, both with negative expectations, bearish for GBP, watching EURGBP for move to R38 or 61 for sell opportunity if bearish
CAD – BOC Business Outlook Survey – moderate impact expected. This is a quarterly report of 100 business leaders to gauge business sentiment. Last quarter was mixed and slightly bearish. As a commodity driven economy, Canada is likely affected in the short term by the drone attack on Iran General last week by possible increase demand for Canadian oil. Rystad Energy suggests an overall decrease in oil prices in the long term. (Davit, is this source one you follow?)
NZD – NZIER Business Confidence, allows economic situation in the short term and Building Permits , moderate impacted suggested. 2019 numbers painted progressively negative and is now -40, bearish. Technically though, very oversold, especially against the AUD.
CNY – Imports/Exports/Trade Balance – moderate impact suggests bullish stance. Trade wars with US continue to create uncertainty however also affecting the CAD, AUD and NZD. This should stabilize with Wed signing of trade agreement.

TUES
USD CPI – high impact news expected to be unchanged at .2%.
FED Williams speech moderate impact expected
Monthly budget statement – moderate impact expected with slightly bullish stance possible
AUD Westpac Consumer confidence – moderate impact, December bearish sentiment, overall I expect low number due to overall impact from fires and economic uncertainty from trade wars

WED

GBP CPI – high impact , expected to remain unchanged
PPI and other news – moderate and low impact – mixed expectations

USD PPI – moderate impact
US/China Trade Deal signature – this is already expected to be a done deal so shouldn’t have a huge impact, conceptually supports more stability with US and all commodity dependent countries, CAD, AUD, NZD
FED’s beige book

JPY Machinery orders – moderate impact, mixed with slightly bullish sentiment
EUR CPI – high impact, expected to remain unchanged

THURS

EUR Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – high impact expected

USD Retail Sales – high impact, increase to .4% from .1% expected bullish sentiment
Jobless Claims – moderate impact – mixed but slightly bearish
NZD Business PMI moderate impact – decreased to 50.6 from 51.4 expected

AUD New Home Sales – moderate impact -increase expected,

JPY - Foreign Investments – moderate impact –
CNY GDP – high impact, no change in numbers

FRI

GBP Retail Sales – moderate impact
EUR CPI – moderate impact, consensus in that it remain unchanged
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment – high impact increase from 99.3 to 99.4,

EUR/GBP –in a nice channel, will wait for R38-61 for sell to S38 area,
Watching also AUD and USD.

Davit, please chop me up as you will. It is my goal to learn from you, get into your trading brain and become an independent and contributing member of this thread. There is much more study to be done in understanding why all of the particular releases are important. Trying to show that I am a giver and not a taker only of this amazing thread for now.
  • #33,814
  • Edited 10:21pm Jan 12, 2020 10:10pm | Edited 10:21pm
Just look at all those touches.
Range between R38 - S38.
Dam you BREXIT.
And also correlated positively with GBPAUD.
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Attached Image
We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #33,815
  • Edited 10:59pm Jan 12, 2020 10:33pm | Edited 10:59pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Decided to take a shot, will keep a close eye on it. PLEASE DO NOT FOLLOW MY TRADES.
Still plenty room to go down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #33,816
  • Jan 13, 2020 6:50am Jan 13, 2020 6:50am
Hi guys
I am going to post this until Friday.
Its obvious we got important red news on CAD and CAD is gaining now.Important is understanding difference of buying the CAD and market dumping old positions prior of event.So its not fundamentally CAD getting stronger its more old positions of sell CAD are being dumped which makes it buy CAD.
There is fundamental buying and there is positions dumping prior of news.I hope you understand the difference.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #33,817
  • Jan 13, 2020 8:34am Jan 13, 2020 8:34am
GA Bat on an H1. ABCD on an Daily ADR in the RED mixed Data on GBP this morning and more to come for the GBP this week.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #33,818
  • Edited 12:56pm Jan 13, 2020 9:37am | Edited 12:56pm
News : US-China Phase One deal signing, China will be removed as a currency manipulator., FBN Lawerence citing a China source


Adds, that Chinese trade sources stated they wanted to be
removed from the list prior to the trade deals signing
Attached Image
  • #33,819
  • Jan 13, 2020 1:42pm Jan 13, 2020 1:42pm
Just for giggles

In 24hrs Went from "I trade similar to Davit Pivot trading to It has nothing to do with pivots and yet uses my template and shares PDF's from this thread(Irony of it all)
Only posting this as a reminder to folks out there Don't take lessons on bicycle riding from a guy who still has training wheels attached.

Got kicked out of here for being rude obnoxious because he could not take constructive criticism of holding a position when Exited EA around 6180 I was adding more shorts.Tells everyone about his "kindness" when here the guy was plain asshole!!The irony of it!
Mizi123 got banned because he could not use the template and indicators provided and ignoring 1st page request, his chart was becoming color candy wrap but instead of complying the guy gets all "insulted" now goes around telling how crappy this system is!
Just a warning guys dont settle for amateurs. Remember Brien? Its sad how people easily risk their money following a guy with no track record nothing about himself nothing actually other then feel good platitudes as "system"
Thought to "heads up"
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #33,820
  • Edited 4:33pm Jan 13, 2020 1:57pm | Edited 4:33pm
Quoting Davit
Just for giggles In 24hrs Went from "I trade similar to Davit Pivot trading to It has nothing to do with pivots and yet uses my template and shares PDF's from this thread(Irony of it all) Only posting this as a reminder to folks out there Don't take lessons on bicycle riding from a guy who still has training wheels attached. Got kicked out of here for being rude obnoxious because he could not take constructive criticism of holding a position when Exited EA around 6180 I was adding more shorts.Tells everyone about his "kindness" when here the guy...
Davit, I hope you'll take this as a minor friendly criticism. I believe you're paying too much attention to noises.

I personally have read nearly all your posts, taking notes etc. I began trading this system/approach only 3 weeks ago and, for God's sake, 3 weeks of profit in a row cannot be accidental!

So, why don't you punish them by ignoring them as if they don't even exist and let your green figures talk?

Cheers...
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