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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #2,481
  • Edited 5:25pm Jan 11, 2020 5:05pm | Edited 5:25pm
Courtesy of Alex C.

USDJPY SINEWAVES

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post12698591

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  • #2,482
  • Jan 11, 2020 10:34pm Jan 11, 2020 10:34pm
@Parisboy - I have just spent the last few days reading the entire thread, making notes along the way. Thank you (and the other contributors) for the massive volume of free information that you have provided. It is much appreciated, though I now have an overwhelming number of books to read

I am working on my charts and will form my live trading strategy in the near future. I am particularly interested in seeing how this method works with digital assets like btc and xrp. Though no long-term price history exists yet, I am confident that the same principles will be valid.
  • #2,483
  • Jan 13, 2020 3:27am Jan 13, 2020 3:27am
Hi Alain
Just a few thoughts now that our friend Sohocool as made trading your method a great deal easier with his wonderful indicator for MT4.
We have had a number of of discussions about the construction of Octaves, be it Gann, Murrey or indeed perhaps the best way being from Swing points as you have demonstrated.
Me being a simple guy, want to trade and be more than happy with picking a few pips up out of the Daily range, with this, I want a constant ( we will say Grid ) that as a set formula that lets me jump on the (trend direction) and gives me for want of better words Bus Stops that let me get on or off during the journey.
What ever method of Grid construction we accept that they have to re-configure hence I like the use of Murrey as it does this in a constant way.
I will give this example for your comments and thoughts, if you would, as if it drops a few more pips it will re-set on a Daily 1 min chart and then a 60 min set to a 4 day chart
Thanks for all your help
Dave
p.s
I do take Range expectation also into my thought when looking at which Bus Stop to use
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  • #2,484
  • Jan 13, 2020 3:32am Jan 13, 2020 3:32am
Now 1 min as re-set
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  • #2,485
  • Jan 13, 2020 3:35am Jan 13, 2020 3:35am
DAX Closed Short position + 22 points
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  • #2,486
  • Jan 13, 2020 3:46am Jan 13, 2020 3:46am
Quoting OAPDave
Hi Alain Just a few thoughts now that our friend Sohocool as made trading your method a great deal easier with his wonderful indicator for MT4. We have had a number of of discussions about the construction of Octaves, be it Gann, Murrey or indeed perhaps the best way being from Swing points as you have demonstrated. Me being a simple guy, want to trade and be more than happy with picking a few pips up out of the Daily range, with this, I want a constant ( we will say Grid ) that as a set formula that lets me jump on the (trend direction) and gives...
Hi Dave what is your exact question about your charts ?
  • #2,487
  • Edited 9:01am Jan 13, 2020 4:02am | Edited 9:01am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Hi Dave what is your exact question about your charts ?
Alain
I think that there are better area's in lets say (trend) to trade, perhaps is it the turn, middle or the end, hopefully my grid gives me a clue, I notice you do not really use or at least not show one, so what made you just bank your +22 pips in your last trade
Take this view from my 60min chart
We are in a down trend, we have already had an 84 pip range, it need's to move another 30 pips down (1/8th) to hit my next grid line, can it do it today , yes, but if I had sold I would be more than happy to bank or at least tighten a stop now ?
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  • #2,488
  • Jan 14, 2020 8:06am Jan 14, 2020 8:06am
Parisboy, would you be able to take a moment to look at bitcoin and give me your thoughts. I have tried to analyse the charts a few times and have been wrong more times than right. Here's my chart from last night...

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Thanks !
  • #2,489
  • Jan 14, 2020 8:46am Jan 14, 2020 8:46am
Quoting AP2762
Parisboy, would you be able to take a moment to look at bitcoin and give me your thoughts. I have tried to analyse the charts a few times and have been wrong more times than right. Here's my chart from last night... {image} Thanks !
As long as the Ascending Valid Trend Line (green) whose slope is 54° is not broken on the downside Trend is UP
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  • #2,490
  • Edited 11:31am Jan 14, 2020 9:02am | Edited 11:31am
Thank you !

I was looking at historical cycles and trying to use the cycle landmarks to forecast where are in the current cycle and therefore where we are heading. Seems this is not so valid.

I'm noting that you are taking the VTL from the break of the second envelope rather than breaching the outer envelope.

Also what are your envelope values - they look different to mine.

Merci beaucoup
  • #2,491
  • Edited Jan 15, 2020 10:21am Jan 14, 2020 1:23pm | Edited Jan 15, 2020 10:21am
HI

If we want to solve the lag (-16) "Problem" , we can add a moving average shifted -16 .

with 1 period = price
or
3,4,5 periods = price filtred

So, we have price and channels in same index (-16) ,we can compare price and channels

precisely (real time),now .




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KISS&V :Keep it simple safe & visual
  • #2,492
  • Jan 14, 2020 4:54pm Jan 14, 2020 4:54pm
Quoting Sohocool
HI If you want to solve the lag (-16) "Problem" , you can add a moving average shifted -16 . with 1 period = price or 3,4,5 periods = price filtred {image}
Sohocool
Good thought, but is that not the same idea as the Chikiou Span from the Ichimoko Kinko Hyo System/Method
Dave
  • #2,493
  • Jan 14, 2020 5:31pm Jan 14, 2020 5:31pm
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Sohocool Good thought, but is that not the same idea as the Chikiou Span from the Ichimoko Kinko Hyo System/Method Dave
More than Happy with your fantastic PB Channel Indicator and my Octaves be it hand drawn or a fix method
Thank you
Dave
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  • #2,494
  • Edited 6:50pm Jan 14, 2020 6:38pm | Edited 6:50pm
Quoting AP2762
Thank you ! I was looking at historical cycles and trying to use the cycle landmarks to forecast where are in the current cycle and therefore where we are heading. Seems this is not so valid. I'm noting that you are taking the VTL from the break of the second envelope rather than breaching the outer envelope. Also what are your envelope values - they look different to mine. Merci beaucoup
My Envelopes Value are 625 / 312,5 / 156,25 for the 256 / 128 and 32 Envelopes

Note you could have calculated this way :

Screen Top = 8.800
Screen Low = 6.400

8.800- 6.400 = 2.400 = Price range

Octave de Gann = Price range / 8 = 2.400 / 8 = 300

Envelope 256 TU = Centered Moving Average 256 +/- 300
Envelope Amplitude = 2 x 300 = 600
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  • #2,495
  • Jan 15, 2020 5:04am Jan 15, 2020 5:04am
After the return to the mean, Price Action fluctuates within a Range of 16 points
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  • #2,496
  • Jan 15, 2020 8:02am Jan 15, 2020 8:02am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} My Envelopes Value are 625 / 312,5 / 156,25 for the 256 / 128 and 32 Envelopes Note you could have calculated this way : Screen Top = 8.800 Screen Low = 6.400 8.800- 6.400 = 2.400 = Price range Octave de Gann = Price range / 8 = 2.400 / 8 = 300 Envelope 256 TU = Centered Moving Average 256 +/- 300 Envelope Amplitude = 2 x 300 = 600 {image}
Thank you
The little tweak's made a positive difference to my set ups
Dave
  • #2,497
  • Jan 15, 2020 3:37pm Jan 15, 2020 3:37pm
I dont understand the significance of the 256 time units for the Centered Moving Average first envelope. Please would you point me to a post or explain?
  • #2,498
  • Jan 15, 2020 9:33pm Jan 15, 2020 9:33pm
Thanks to Parisboy's envelope and to Sohocool for his PB channel that made the work easier.

Quoting BWilliam
{quote} One last dip from 1.3015 before reversal is possible.
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Know what you trade
  • #2,499
  • Jan 15, 2020 9:42pm Jan 15, 2020 9:42pm
EU
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Know what you trade
  • #2,500
  • Jan 16, 2020 5:35am Jan 16, 2020 5:35am
DAX 1 mn

Price Action fluctuates within the same Range as yesterday

62.5 / 31.25 / 15.625
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