AUDNZD

I'm a keen seller lol

#AUDNZD / Weekly / Two Ideas

#AUDNZD / Weekly / Two Ideas

- Going to close short @ 1.0680 & 1.0630

- Looking to sell again @ 1.0844

Rarely trade this pair but it helps me position trades on the other AUD and NZD pairs. This is what my eyes are seeing and therefore I am targeting AUD pairs to go UP in the next 3-5 days (not tonight Oct. 9 - Oct. 10). Needs to go down first, maybe until Oct. 10 morning and then gently start moving UP.

#AUDNZD / Weekly & Daily / Two Ideas

I'm optimistic.
I bought. 1.05987

On the 13th of Nov RBNZ took the market by surprise by not cutting interest rates from 1.0% to 0.75%.

0.75% had been priced into the NZD and subsequently the pair is re-pricing.

It is clear on the daily chart that this AUD/NZD has been in a strong downtrend since the 13th of Nov announcement.

There have been no significant pullbacks on the daily chart at any support levels, buying into this pair right now IMO is far more risky than selling into it. On the daily chart below the next significant support zone is delineated at 1.0455. I would not consider taking a position trade at this level, but rather see it as a final target area for shorting into this pair on the current downtrend.



There are plenty of opportunities to enter short on pullbacks on the 1h / 15 min.

AUD/NZD is now approaching 1.0455

It is looking increasingly likely that a 30 - 50 pip bounce will happen from this area as a short term scalp.

#AUDNZD / Weekly & Daily / Two Ideas

What may be going on with AUD/NZD.

The big four banks in Australia, were told circa October, November of 2019 that they would need to hold more capital in reserves, the currency would need to be held in New Zealand Dollars.

Here is an article related to this if you wish to get the gist https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-...aland/11768464

Here is a reference chart, 4 hour AUD/NZD. The key movement is at the RED dashed vertical line. Which is around the time that these articles started to show up


The Royal Commission into Misconduct in Banking happened between 2017 - 2019 which saw changes to some of the rules which is beyond my payroll or understanding. I'm a small time trader and not much of an economist, so if someone is able to drop some knowledge bombs to shed some clarity that would be nice.

Though this new capital requirement does not seem to have anything to do with the Royal Commission inquiry, the reasons are clear, it's related to protecting the banks against a big financial downturn, a sort of protective pre-emptive defensive move just in case. So this recent strength in the New Zealand Dollar could be the banks topping up their coffers to meet the new reserve requirements, how far down that road they are is anybodies guess.

The big question is, are the banks finished buying up their reserves.

Addition information - In the article above it mentions that "analysts" believe they should not need to cut dividends to fund this however ANZ bank cleary reduced their franking to 70 which is a big change from the normal 100, could it be related, a sneaky move to buy up those NZ Dollars by cutting dividends, which all happened around the same time.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

[quote=RockDove;12690391]What may be going on with AUD/NZD. The big four banks in Australia, were told circa October, November of 2019 that they would need to hold more capital in reserves, the currency would need to be held in New Zealand Dollars. Here is an article related to this if you wish to get the gist https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-...aland/11768464 Here is a reference chart, 4 hour AUD/NZD. The key movement is at the RED dashed vertical line. Which is around the time that these articles started to show up {image} The Royal Commission into Misconduct in Banking happened between 2017 - 2019 which saw changes to some of the rules which is beyond my payroll or understanding. I'm a small time trader and not much of an economist, so if someone is able to drop some knowledge bombs to shed some clarity that would be nice. Though this new capital requirement does not seem to have anything to do with the Royal Commission inquiry, the reasons are clear, it's related to protecting the banks against a big financial downturn, a sort of protective pre-emptive defensive move just in case. So this recent strength in the New Zealand Dollar could be the banks topping up their coffers to meet the new reserve requirements, how far down that road they are is anybodies guess. The big question is, are the banks finished buying up their reserves. Addition information - In the article above it mentions that "analysts" believe they should not need to cut dividends to fund this however ANZ bank cleary reduced their franking to 70 which is a big change from the normal 100, could it be related, a sneaky move to buy up those NZ Dollars by cutting dividends, which all happened around the same time. {image}[/qu

do we have any imp news in calendar that can bottom out AN around 1.03? i am looking to buy it but only if daily close gives 1.0440+ ..

Tomorrow we have Australian Import / Export data, trade balance + Chinese CPI data, then further in the week we have a lot of US data.

As for the direction AN, it's really hard to tell where it will turn, we are at the lowest point since mid last year and still have a bit to go to take that out. Looking for positive data to give both currencies a boost. Could be a good time to take some small long positions and scale in slowly when it looks convincing.

At least with my previous post it will give traders some caution to know that banks have been instructed to buy up New Zealand dollars. I have no idea how far down this buying will push this pair down.

tks buddy for the helpful info. usually if AN reverses with a central bank event .. like last time around 1.03 when mkt deemed RBNZ more dovish than RBA then buying is more convincing. will see if there is any CB event of RBNZ on the calendar ..

Sounds like a plan. I remember that!

feb 12 RBNZ IR decision ... if they give hints of easing after preceding some hopefully not so good data .. then maybe else looks like we continue to go down ...

holding from 1.0320ish. this will be the trade of 2020

already up +70 from yesterday. good start.

Resistance at current level 1.39 indicates that 1.41 - 1.42 as a potential swing entry into the downtrend for this pair, if this price level is reached soon.

I went long this pair a couple of days ago at 1.034.