Vikinsa's GBPUSD Journal

GBPUSD
All trades, systems, strategies are for my personal use only. I do not intend to give any kind of investment or financial advice of any sort. I use this thread only to log my analysis, planning, execution and results of trades. If you seek any value out of my posts, you are most welcome but please do so only educational purposes.

https://www.tradingview.com/u/vikinsa/

My Strategy Discussion: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12678892

AUDUSD Trade Analysis Journal: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=970850
EURUSD Trade Analysis Journal: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=970846
GBPUSD Trade Analysis Journal: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=970847
USDCAD Trade Analysis Journal: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=970851
USDJPY Trade Analysis Journal: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=970848
GOLD Trade Analysis Journal: https://www.metalsmine.com/showthread.php?t=971472

On Nov 16, 2019, the usual sentiment was that GBPUSD was going to fall because BAT Pattern was completed on weekly time frame. However because even after 2 weeks the fall was not occuring and 200SMA was getting close above, I predicted that it would turn into an ALT Bat pattern completing at 1.13 Fib level.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GB...Alt-Bat-Forms/


On November 20th I reported that bollinger bands on daily timeframe were squeezing which could mean that a breakout was expected.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GB...-Are-Squeezed/


It was also coinciding with UK general election which could push this pair one side which it did. So the price pushed higher as expected giving us a very good profit.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GB...ort-Positions/
And from the blue zone we were able to short because of completion of ALT Bat pattern. The fall is still happening and is about to reach its 38.2 FIB retracement level around 1.28056 giving us great profits on short side too.
We must be aware of 1.2690 level where 200SMA is. 61.8 Fib level may never reach if 200SMA becomes a blocker.

First short target was adjusted for the impulse leg.
Previous AD leg was from 1.9581 to 1.32038
It has been adjusted from 1.9581 to 1.35151 which gives us 38.2 Fib (target 1) at 1.29020 and target 2 (61.88) at 1.25543



It has reached its target 1 earning 300 PIPs. Closing this short now and leaving part running for target 2.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7UdFPdxC/

400 PIPS opportunity (from today @1.29521): Weekly trend is shifting down. We have 2 confirmations and a third one can push it easily to 61.8 Fib level @ 1.25700

But we need to wait for close of this week.

OK so 1.30800 Is the level to add to short positions again. On 1H we have 200SMA, on daily and weekly also we have barriers.

We must have a strop loss above 61.8 Fib level i.e. 1.32547
Target1: 1.2900
Target2: 1.2696
Target3: 1.2550

Weekly:

Daily:

Hourly:

1.3080 level reached. 38.2 fib retracement is where we can add to short position. Stops above 61.8.

This is also where we have 200sma on 1 hour chart

1.3080 level is important. Market is coming back to it.

Weekly Analysis:

A good Head and Shoulders Pattern is developing on GBPUSD on M5 chart which can push it up by 40 PIPs or so. However it is nothing that I am concerned about. I am still bearish until is violates higher time frame 61.8 Fib level.

A good level to start shorts from:

Confluence:
1. Round Number 1.31500
2. 4H Pivot

Short position is going nice.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GB...As-Resistance/

GBP Short position update. Added to my short positions. Now we have 2 confirmations for downside. Today's close should give the 3rd confirmation.

"We must have a strop loss above 61.8 Fib level i.e. 1.32547". This is your short trade SL according to your post.

You SL was hit. So basically you ignored your SL.
You are a newbie playing a guru with your posts. You should go back to basics first.

Thanks for pointing that out. I actually made a mistake. I calculated my FIB wrong initially. But then I corrected it so my SL was never hit. Besides I take my positions based on a zone. So I take multiple positions around an area hence I have multiple SLs giving me better R:R. So there was mistake in my planning but not in execution.
Sir, I always a newbie even after 7 years in trading. Always learning new things every day from experts and seniors like yourself.

I calculated wrong fib here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post12678288

I posted the correction here on Dec 29th: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GB...ekly-Analysis/

and: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post12679505

Then corrected it here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post12684312

This is how it looks:

We have 3 confirmations now.

More downside expected for now however I need to be careful.

I have closed my short position because of H4 chart. However I still have bearish bias on GBPUSD because of weekly timeframe so if it goes back higher up to restest highs or create a double top, I will short it again. We need to be careful because of Brexit on Jan 31st.

This can be the place to start or add to short positions again.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GB...rn-Forming-Up/

GBPUSD Plan For Consolidation Phase-Use Patterns To Take Profit, we have 2 patterns now. One for long entries and other for short.

Still waiting for either of these patterns to get completed for an entry.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GB...o-Take-Profit/