Vikinsa's AUDUSD Journal | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Another Trading Journal - Yuhu's Journal 17 replies

Twitch Journal - Live Journal 4 replies

AUDUSD journal 142 replies

My Personal journal up 18% in 2 months going to start a journal 8 replies

Candlestick Chart Analysis - AUDUSD & USDCAD 1 reply

Attachments: Vikinsa's AUDUSD Journal
Exit Attachments

Vikinsa's AUDUSD Journal

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jan 21, 2020 4:38am Dec 23, 2019 2:38pm | Edited Jan 21, 2020 4:38am
AUDUSD
All trades, systems, strategies are for my personal use only. I do not intend to give any kind of investment or financial advice of any sort. I use this thread only to log my analysis, planning, execution and results of trades. If you seek any value out of my posts, you are most welcome but please do so only educational purposes.

https://www.tradingview.com/u/vikinsa/

My Strategy Discussion: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12678892

AUDUSD Trade Analysis Journal: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=970850
EURUSD Trade Analysis Journal: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=970846
GBPUSD Trade Analysis Journal: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=970847
USDCAD Trade Analysis Journal: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=970851
USDJPY Trade Analysis Journal: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=970848
Minor JPY Trade Analysis Journal: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=970853
GOLD Trade Analysis Journal: https://www.metalsmine.com/showthread.php?t=971472
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #2
  • Dec 23, 2019 3:02pm Dec 23, 2019 3:02pm
AUDUSD A Breakout Expected With 250 PIPS Potential:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AU...IPS-Potential/

If 0.6930 Level Is Broken and confirmed by a close above, we can expect a rally to Target 1 and If that is also broken then it can rally to Target 2 where ALT Bat pattern completes.

Analysis Breakdown:

1. The monthly chart shows that the Dec 2019 bull candle is projecting upwards. If this closes above the 10SMA then the next target could be 20SMA which is mid line of bollinger band.
2. On the weekly time frame we see multiple points

  1. XA leg tracement created point B which is 50% Fibonacci which means possible BAT pattern at 88.6 Fibonacci retracement of XA
  2. BC leg was then created. Its placement indicates that we could be going beyond usual BAT pattern.
  3. Another B1 point was created which is at 61.8 Fib level of XA indicating that we could be looking at Gartley pattern.
  4. So now we have 2 patterns.
  5. Fibonacci extension on BC and B1C legs create fibonacci confluences at points D and D1.#
  6. D becomes our first target and D1 second target.
  7. However D1 (0.71927) is beyond 20SMA (0.70796) of Monthly chart so we will have to be careful and we might only get up to 1.13 Fib extension at (0.71352) .

3. BUT... It can all work only if we have a confirmed breakout of the 50% and 61.8% levels i.e. B and B1.

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa 2019-12-23_19-22-23 AUDUSD Monthly.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa 2019-12-23_19-22-23 AUDUSD.png Size: 154 KB
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #3
  • Dec 24, 2019 3:30am Dec 24, 2019 3:30am
Ok, The price is struggling with a bearish trend line. The previous daily candle was strong however this trend line must have an effect on the price. This must be broken and tested before it starts to move upwards. It also is looking as a double top. So I will not take a long position until I have a confirmation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa AUDUSD 24 Dec 2019 Before Breakout Prediction.png Size: 131 KB
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #4
  • Dec 24, 2019 1:08pm Dec 24, 2019 1:08pm
trying hard to break the trend line:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa AUDUSD 24 Dec 2019 Before Breakout Prediction-2.png Size: 88 KB
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #5
  • Dec 26, 2019 1:26am Dec 26, 2019 1:26am
Weekly trend line is broken but we need a confirmation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_20191226_072544.jpg Size: 446 KB
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #6
  • Dec 26, 2019 1:55am Dec 26, 2019 1:55am
Since the start of Dec 2019, we have secured more than 100 PIPs on AUDUSD long.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AU...alysis-Part-1/

Dec 1, 2019 Before:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa AUDUSD 2019-12-26_07-52-57 Dec 1, 2019 Long Term Weekly Analysis.png Size: 101 KB


After:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa AUDUSD 2019-12-26_07-52-57 Dec 1, 2019 Long Term Weekly Analysis After.png Size: 95 KB
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #7
  • Edited 1:04pm Dec 26, 2019 12:33pm | Edited 1:04pm
breakout in motion but we wait...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa AUDUSD Dec 26, 2019 Before Breakout.png Size: 71 KB


this level represents a breakout from 0.693 level which is crucial for a good few hundred PIPS long trade

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa 2019-12-23_19-22-23 AUDUSD.png Size: 154 KB
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #8
  • Edited 1:52am Dec 27, 2019 1:36am | Edited 1:52am
We have confirmation now as yesterday's candle closed above resistance. We can wait until end of this week i.e. today if want further confirmation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa AUDUSD Breakout Confirmation Dec 27 2019 2019-12-27_07-28-01.png Size: 185 KB


200SMA has been broken too:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa AUDUSD Breakout Confirmation Dec 27 2019 2019-12-27_07-28-01-2.png Size: 72 KB


80 PIPs Long Position Opportunity

Target:0.70294 (adjustable on market conditions)
Entry:0.6948
Stop:0.68837 (adjustable on market conditions)
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #9
  • Dec 27, 2019 6:26am Dec 27, 2019 6:26am
Although we had a breakout this week and today's close level will be very important, there are high chances of a bearish next week.That can give us a retest of the trend line and 0.69300. This is because of over-extension and candle stick pattern that I explained in my strategy thread.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post12678068

Attached Image


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa AUDUSD Weekly Retracement Expected Dec 27 2019 2019-12-27_12-25-38.png Size: 185 KB
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #10
  • Dec 29, 2019 7:44am Dec 29, 2019 7:44am
Weekly Analysis:

Inserted Video
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #11
  • Dec 30, 2019 5:35am Dec 30, 2019 5:35am
Quoting vikinsa
Although we had a breakout this week and today's close level will be very important, there are high chances of a bearish next week.That can give us a retest of the trend line and 0.69300. This is because of over-extension and candle stick pattern that I explained in my strategy thread. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post12678068 {image} {image}

Still waiting for the restest of the structure on a weekly bearish candle. Once tested I will enter a long position. Market is trying to reach 0.70000 Level

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa AUDUSD Waiting For Weekly Down To Retest The Structure 2019-12-30_11-32-03.png Size: 37 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Highly Stretched To Reach 0.70000 Level 2019-12-30_11-34-38.png Size: 27 KB
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #12
  • Dec 30, 2019 9:49am Dec 30, 2019 9:49am
Quoting vikinsa
{quote} Still waiting for the restest of the structure on a weekly bearish candle. Once tested I will enter a long position. Market is trying to reach 0.70000 Level {image} {image}
As expected:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa AUDUSD Highly Stretched To Reach 0.70000 Level 2019-12-30_11-34-38 After Test.png Size: 28 KB
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #13
  • Edited 4:37am Jan 3, 2020 3:35am | Edited 4:37am
Quoting vikinsa
Although we had a breakout this week and today's close level will be very important, there are high chances of a bearish next week.That can give us a retest of the trend line and 0.69300. This is because of over-extension and candle stick pattern that I explained in my strategy thread. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post12678068 {image} {image}
As I said, this week has tuned bearish. I could see that from the candlestick pattern which I explained here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post12678892

Before:

Attached Image


After:

Attached Image
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #14
  • Edited 5:43am Jan 3, 2020 5:09am | Edited 5:43am
Quoting vikinsa
AUDUSD A Breakout Expected With 250 PIPS Potential: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AU...IPS-Potential/ If 0.6930 Level Is Broken and confirmed by a close above, we can expect a rally to Target 1 and If that is also broken then it can rally to Target 2 where ALT Bat pattern completes. Analysis Breakdown: 1. The monthly chart shows that the Dec 2019 bull candle is projecting upwards. If this closes above the 10SMA then the next target could be 20SMA which is mid line of bollinger band....
Long position Target 1 was achieved.

AUDUSD Waiting for 0.693-0.69 Level To Go Long Again after Long Position Target 1 was achieved . This time we can target Target 1 and Target 2 both.
The entry zone is between 0.69300 and 0.6900

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AU...Go-Long-Again/

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa AUDUSD Long Position Plan at 0.6900 Jan 03 2020.png Size: 146 KB


Although current daily time frame candle is very bearish but that entry zone should still work. I will watch it carefully and will wait for a confirmation before entry. We have confluence there of: 38.2 Fib, 200SMA, Round Number, TrendLine
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa AUDUSD Long Position Plan at 0.6900 Jan 03 2020 -2.png Size: 58 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa AUDUSD Long Position Plan at 0.6900 Jan 03 2020 -3.png Size: 46 KB
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #15
  • Edited 9:40am Jan 5, 2020 8:53am | Edited 9:40am
That 38.2 Fib level is important.

Inserted Video


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vikinsa AUDUSD Forex Trade Plan Jan 05 2020 38.2 Fibonacci Level Confluence.png Size: 159 KB
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #16
  • Edited 1:50am Jan 7, 2020 1:24am | Edited 1:50am
First entry taken at 0.691. Next order set for 0.69.

I am expecting a reaction to 10SMA on monthly chart which has confluence with 38.2 Fib. Monthly chart is turning bullish too with multiple signs. Stops are below 61.8 Target is 20sma on Monthly chart Fib. 2:1 R:R with 150 or more PIPs.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Jan 7 2020 Reaction To 10SMA on Monthly Forex Chart 2020-01-07_07-46-59.png Size: 86 KB
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #17
  • Jan 7, 2020 1:59am Jan 7, 2020 1:59am
order at 0.69 filled.
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #18
  • Jan 7, 2020 4:20am Jan 7, 2020 4:20am
AUDUSD Reached 38.2 Fib as expected and we have a lot of confluence there. However on Daily timeframe it is getting overbought so we need to be careful. If the market shows rejection at 38.2 then we can add to our long positions else we will have to wait for 61.8 level where more confluence is. If the entry has been taken at 38.2 then stops will have to be below 61.8 naturally.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AU...Entry-at-61-8/

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Daily Time Frame Overbought Jan 07 2020 38.2 Fib Reached 2020-01-07_10-19-08 Vikinsa.png Size: 126 KB


Inserted Video
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #19
  • Jan 8, 2020 10:59am Jan 8, 2020 10:59am
Break of this level can give us a good entry point to add to my long position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2020-01-08-16-58-04-99.png Size: 122 KB
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #20
  • Jan 10, 2020 9:50am Jan 10, 2020 9:50am
Cross occurring as expected.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2020-01-10-15-49-55-81.png Size: 121 KB
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
0 traders viewing now