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  • #801
  • Dec 17, 2019 10:46am Dec 17, 2019 10:46am
Quoting auricforecas
Where you at detector, missing you in cheetah etc What are you in lately? Also, didn't read the whole thread but what Island is this about.. Island as an idea or UK (island/s)? BTW was almost in London this week, but skipped it (although still thinking if i should catch it...) Am observing the opportunities since I do love to trade London times the most, triple the liquidity at certain markets... Trying to figure if there would be any benefits of physical presence there I like the dynamic and "energy" or better.....
Hello A, pleased someone is sorry I haven't been active, been a little poorly and work been manic, had a few small positions but in general on the sidelines with Christmas holidays on the horizon, been here before so keeping my powder dry.
The "Island" this is what we buy when we make it big, expect to see you all as neighbours, will be much easier to trade when we're all a jet ski away.
I'm further up the country but worked in London many times, been drunk there many times tooD
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #802
  • Edited 11:26am Dec 17, 2019 11:13am | Edited 11:26am
Quoting detector
{quote} Hello A, pleased someone is sorry I haven't been active, been a little poorly and work been manic, had a few small positions but in general on the sidelines with Christmas holidays on the horizon, been here before so keeping my powder dry. The "Island" this is what we buy when we make it big, expect to see you all as neighbours, will be much easier to trade when we're all a jet ski away. I'm further up the country but worked in London many times, been drunk there many times tooD
Nice man!

Might be off-topic (so sorry people, pass if necessary), but it is TRADING related...
Speaking about trading/hedging.. am seriously considering moving/establishing residency/comp in UK before you might take another route... I like to be hedged man... at this day and age In a way I like OPTIONS/freedom in the world.. Just check how US people got limited now... about CFDs, CO2.. EU dropped the leverage to 30:1.. although it basically had unlimited leverage just years back... what was also the significant advantage vs US... They were luring me into moving some brokers account US account (50:1) to EU (offered 100:1 at the time) but I said.. no tnx man... can not afford to take that chance... and now glad I didn't... because this 30:1 limit came overnight basicaly.. Although there was ONE broker that warned me in advance... when I asked other brokers at the time, they had no clue about it untill they informed us overnight... So yeah, that is why I prefer more brokers or at least THE ONE (big one), one optimal and one for unlimited leverage that still exist gladly... US citizens are much more limited I heard.. they can not even open accounts outside of US or certain brokers do not accept them... Also CH lost in edge years ago, if you ask me, due to EU/US pressure, not tax heaven anymore and not protected accounts.. numbered accounts are even more historic... So what is really left there... So I'm very curious what UK might do post-brexit... I believe it might be best to be there BEFORE some changes.. since there will be some grace period for EU citizens, some moratorium.. so will see.. I might establish comp there at least or even move residency... I can always go back... So the grass will be always green Basically I love that we still have options to open account at almost any broker in the world... Currently some brokers outside that offer 500:1... even though if it is "too much" as some say.. I do not care, I love the freedom to choose.. I might very well find out myself that EU people were geniuses with limiting to 30:1.. but tell that to my P&L where I made my first big profit with 50:1 full in.. and still angry I didn't had higher leverage... because there was one epic winning streak.. Anyway, what I am trying to say is that I still love UK and its tax heavens... also I think I am not young enough to learn some other foreign language.. always bothered me that CH doesn't have english as official.. So yeah, it seems at the moment, it might be best to have multiple accounts or even comps open around the world.. and watch where they will become the smartest first... I honestly think that anything is possible after brexit.. almost don't care much.. I just want to be hedged UK can become GLORY or.. the other thing I mean I tried to trade NYC times but liquidity drops af. so then I checked the actual volume and it is TRIPLED at london times at least in the markets I trade in mostly... So I think before I get to investment (VC etc..) level... to go play with money in NYC.. since I believe US still wins hands down for VC and overall investments and liquidations, raiding etc I think it is best to TRADE our asses up in EU/UK BTW I have seen those things before... am old enough to be part of some dissolved union before The ones that got the best deal were the ones that hedged Yeah, betting on winning horse is cheaper but risky.) So am seriously considering UK comp formation for the purpose of trading... (although I might throw some money away since FX spot is not taxed in my country, for real persons) and later even consider of some tax island of UK from there.. many comps, branches can be opened (in another parts - hedged world).. if needed.. Just my thoughts since not much going on man BTW was explaining this to some people that capital/equity doesn't give a f.. what happens since it is hedged mostly I mean US was playing with taxes before.. what happened, Trillions offshore profits, legally... and they are scratching their.. how to get it back (last time I check they managed to stimulate .7T back, still 3.3T left... at least)... I believe UK have great potential to suck money out of EU if they mess up... At the same time EU can suck capital out of UK if they mess up... But I can not bet on ONE side at this smart politicians we have as an option... So I prefer this hedge approach until some clearer direction ATM I have no favourite... But know which countries have the potential to make crazy money out of this mess The question is.. will they... Till then... I much prefer to be HEDGED, MOBILE, FLEXIBLE My 2b man...
Oh and yeah... do not get me started on Tobin.. again... One of my EDGE would be HEDGE, for at least the next 5years

Inserted Video
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #803
  • Dec 17, 2019 11:32am Dec 17, 2019 11:32am
But to add some more direct trading...

EURUSD
I will make an exception and just mention EURUSD... I would bet on AT LEATS 1.1162 that might happen VERY SOON... I suspect that when liquidity is restored... might be tomorrow... so might got some 10PIPs if not obsessed with R:R 1:1 And if you are, you might be good contribution to CHEETAH thread

WTI (XTIUSD) seems to be strong (NORHT)... might be in tune with this for the next month till I resume SOUTH views.. most likely...

GOLD (XAUUSD)
UP in general, for the next 1-2years AT LEAST... But since apart from uncertainty and countries piling up... it needs VOLUME.. I am not sure I would be buying/trading it before 2020.. and some 1-2weeks into new year... so basically in the next month.. But my overall strategy would be BUY, specially while below 1500 which I consider it as a no-brainer BUY, at least for long term...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #804
  • Dec 17, 2019 12:09pm Dec 17, 2019 12:09pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Nice man! Might be off-topic (so sorry people, pass if necessary), but it is TRADING related... Speaking about trading/hedging.. am seriously considering moving/establishing residency/comp in UK before you might take another route... I like to be hedged man... at this day and age In a way I like OPTIONS/freedom in the world.. Just check how US people got limited now... about CFDs, CO2.. EU dropped the leverage to 30:1.. although it basically had unlimited leverage just years back... what was also the significant advantage vs US......
A, think Brexit will have more adaptions than any novel, politicians cannot even call it, there will be a reason but that will be apparent, or show in many years, think this is a long game to get a desired result, I'm no poker player but know you need to sacrifice something to achieve a winning hand, you couldn't have chosen a better movie, "Lucky Number Sleven" the Kansas shuffle.
Higher leverage, not for me ATM, my timing is not that accurate, would have worked against me in my strategy, need to work on the trigger, also,If I can move forward in the same vein, a larger account may have as good an impact with a low level, spreadbetting in the UK (covers the same markets as CFD) is tax free on profits, will be more inclined to jump ship if it all works out, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #805
  • Dec 17, 2019 12:11pm Dec 17, 2019 12:11pm
Opened a small short on the Dow 28294 against my better judgement, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #806
  • Dec 17, 2019 12:16pm Dec 17, 2019 12:16pm
Quoting detector
Opened a small short on the Dow 28294 against my better judgement, D
The 15 min has rejected, for now, feel any news could change all, but going with it, 28360 is breakout level, 28250 short target, D
EDIT
28360 or about could be added, need to evaluate if the breakout could happen.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #807
  • Dec 17, 2019 12:23pm Dec 17, 2019 12:23pm
28320 to beat for a possible fall, seen many pullups from here on the candle wicks, a possible bun fight, D
EDIT
Failing this 28500 next step.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #808
  • Dec 17, 2019 12:35pm Dec 17, 2019 12:35pm
Quoting detector
spreadbetting in the UK (covers the same markets as CFD) is tax free on profits, will be more inclined to jump ship if it all works out, D
Wow tnx for reminding me.. I will look into it as/if the times comes.. But I remember there were some issues with spread betting and EU... Will look more if I become even more serious about UK And how that apply (tax wise) to other brokers outside of EU/UK with higher leverage, for UK residents... As I understand this is for real persons only... Ok will check if needed As of now still checking the benefits of trading from UK... For PURE trading wise.. I do not see any benefits as of yet... but there might be some peripheral advantages.. Specially for re-investing profits "somewhere" And to have certain access to some opportunities... London still has strong image imho
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #809
  • Dec 17, 2019 12:37pm Dec 17, 2019 12:37pm
Quoting detector
28320 to beat for a possible fall, seen many pullups from here on the candle wicks, a possible bun fight, D EDIT Failing this 28500 next step.
Apologies 28285 to beat
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #810
  • Edited 1:13pm Dec 17, 2019 12:52pm | Edited 1:13pm
Quoting detector
{quote} Apologies 28285 to beat
Just checked your TE man... You seem to be rolling it for now BTW have you ever though about getting your trades reviewed to maybe find better harvest strategy? I myself am using rather simplistic harvest strategy.. haven't found better one than combinatorics from stat modelling different past, future scenarios as certain market conditions at certain parameters.. but I let.. in fact I know there is better... Have tried to find some sci guys and/or traders... but think both have some sort of blind spot Traders are locked-in certain "golden rules" while sci guys do not have a clue about trading usually and although their "fit" seem to suggest something, the bigger picture tells something different.. Anyway, there is another benefit I might see at UK, since there are many pros there... am planing for a long time.. to get my trades analysed.. to optimise my profits... I, if I do have anything... to be confirmed/rejected am strong(est) in price prediction.. that might happen with delay... so yeah, not within RR 1:1 as many praise... also... am not that skilled at trailing stops although my brokers auto-analysing program suggested I would have pulled much more using it... So just wanted to know if you were checking in that area... checking your TE.. you seem to have almost RoMaD 4... Return over DD... Imagine if there is maybe room to optimise HARVESt of your trades... Yeah, I see that neg non-cume profit also but so far you were on the right side, pulled off As you know, the KEY is to know when to PULL out BTW I was predicting eurusd correctly for 5 straight months (at which point I stopped, it was predetermined before how long will it last...)but and was seeking for optimal harvest by anyone.. but no one replied even So I stick to what I have atm... Am just curious of some services to help with this, just a though... But they would have hard time convincing me
BTW that was one of the main reason for me posting.. if someone would say "wait a minute, why don't you... you would get"... but real BASEd argument, not just some copy/paste rookie s... like "omg, you should use R:R" or "omg you should make X pips/trade"... but REAL computations, backtest and projection wise Ok I hope you get the idea.. Just a though, brainstorm

Just to tell you... when I started trading, WHILE back... I made some LARGE profit... let's say ONE+ year FU position.. but later found out... if I would adjust the parameters better, it could be x10 that... by all others being equal! Just if I would adjust TP/SL/LEV a bit better, for same entries... and everything... Still mad about it, almost So this HARVEst is very important.. In fact.. some are lousy traders but good at that and they still make some money While some might got PRICE right AF... but fail at this harvest or risk m.. and fail... In fact, when I started I thought I suck till I found out that my predictions DO come true with X delay... that was almost constant at certain market conditions.. Ok..

Also, some traders might go crazy (just reminded me of another "glory rule" of rookies...: win-rate....) about your stat (below) that is a good example to show that high-winning rate might not be necessary... It is beautiful Return counts, next is DD... and then there is noise But yeah, peripheral parameters can be used to determine luck vs juice but that is FAR beyond of any discussion I came across here so far - but I did initiate it many times So let't leave that for now

  1. Return: 191.5%
  2. Max Return Drawdown: -58.1%
  3. Win Rate: 51.9%

Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #811
  • Dec 17, 2019 1:14pm Dec 17, 2019 1:14pm
Quoting detector
Opened a small short on the Dow 28294 against my better judgement, D
Closed out, made a little profit, market break coming, (15min) not wanting any shocks, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #812
  • Dec 17, 2019 1:41pm Dec 17, 2019 1:41pm
Quoting detector
{quote} Closed out, made a little profit, market break coming, (15min) not wanting any shocks, D
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #813
  • Dec 17, 2019 1:43pm Dec 17, 2019 1:43pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Just checked your TE man... You seem to be rolling it for now BTW have you ever though about getting your trades reviewed to maybe find better harvest strategy? I myself am using rather simplistic harvest strategy.. haven't found better one than combinatorics from stat modelling different past, future scenarios as certain market conditions at certain parameters.. but I let.. in fact I know there is better... Have tried to find some sci guys and/or traders... but think both have some sort of blind spot Traders are...
A, thanks, never dissected my TE, and probably don't know off hand, never needed to, my results are of late, just enjoying the training wheels off with results, I have two sets of system, the first I used when I met my fellow Island trades, results were showing, albeit 2 steps forward 1 back, I realised my lot size was my enemy, trying to move too quick, then created the second system, this is refining a little, still too early on entry though, the WTI flash we had the other week knocked me, the irony was, I seen the rise and done nothing, I was suffering being poorly, which only became worse, but as Li said, it never stopped my comeback, sleeping was more on my agenda.
Because I have taught my profession in the past, I have always advised to master the art before you ask for the reward, trading is in the same category, if this is happening, I will drill down and examine, the market will still be there tomorrow, hopefully my system will still perform tomorrow in the same way, thanks for taking the time, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #814
  • Dec 17, 2019 1:47pm Dec 17, 2019 1:47pm
Quoting detector
{quote} A, thanks, never dissected my TE, and probably don't know off hand, never needed to, my results are of late, just enjoying the training wheels off with results, I have two sets of system, the first I used when I met my fellow Island trades, results were showing, albeit 2 steps forward 1 back, I realised my lot size was my enemy, trying to move too quick, then created the second system, this is refining a little, still too early on entry though, the WTI flash we had the other week knocked me, the irony was, I seen the rise and done nothing,...
Tnx for the input... I will let my trades roll also... specially next year.. and then, If I am satisfied... might give them reviewed if "they" found some better harvest I know I might be missing some pips but nevertheless.. at the moment the price prediction still primary focus of mine... Also the second thing I will have reviewed... is to (know how but do not have time to program it myself).. to extract luck vs juice.. but that would be later, atm it might be better not knowing aka "enjoying" the benefit of the doubt, just in case..

BTW just to fire some synapses to some... Return 0% could be GOLDEN too at certain conditions: HINT: SWAPS
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #815
  • Dec 17, 2019 2:02pm Dec 17, 2019 2:02pm
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} {image}
Li, as ever, Looking at the reopen I could have squeezed a sheckle more out, I took a look at the WTI chart after your post on WTI thread, while I'm a little hesitant, there was an opp to short, seen something similar yesterday that I acted on but closed fruitless, however, the chart is showing another possible rise then a good fall, around (380 bars back on the 4hr,) the top out could be 65, thought 70 was going to be the target but around about, cheers, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #816
  • Dec 17, 2019 2:13pm Dec 17, 2019 2:13pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Tnx for the input... I will let my trades roll also... specially next year.. and then, If I am satisfied... might give them reviewed if "they" found some better harvest I know I might be missing some pips but nevertheless.. at the moment the price prediction still primary focus of mine... Also the second thing I will have reviewed... is to (know how but do not have time to program it myself).. to extract luck vs juice.. but that would be later, atm it might be better not knowing aka "enjoying" the benefit of the doubt, just...
A, looked over your TE, very impressive, in my best terminology, I see you beating your opponent with minimum moves, very timely and profitable.
Swaps/Rebates, there is a FF member Blue Panther (you may have read his story) the rebates he received when he was actively trading made for "just good profit" outside of trading, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #817
  • Dec 17, 2019 2:18pm Dec 17, 2019 2:18pm
Quoting detector
{quote} A, looked over your TE, very impressive, in my best terminology, I see you beating your opponent with minimum moves, very timely and profitable. Swaps/Rebates, there is a FF member Blue Panther (you may have read his story) the rebates he received when he was actively trading made for "just good profit" outside of trading, D
Tnx.. My favourite, first TE... got "destroyed" once I re-deposited (I just moved money from one account to another, at same broker.. and back.. and wtf.. tested again.. and now it got divided by 4, virtually.. due to TE calculations (how formulas are set up) So when you re-deposit.. your profits gets divided to all deposits even though you move assets just for a minute from one account to next and then back So I then lost interest in building it since it "virtually" dropped from 200% to 50% (but it still is 200%), kicked me out of list etc... so I then withdrawn the cash Also, even if one only withdraws, there seems to be some weird stat coming out Anyway, preparing new TEs for 2020.. If all goes well.. I might attack big, we will see And as you know, the favourite is the cheetah... You might be a good contribution, keep up the good work, you can check (your trades) in retrospect what trades would be candidates for it. For example, certain markets at certain estimated certainty etc... to be continued, if all goes well Remember, we only need to be right ONCE, n=12.. I have proven that n=12 can be made... the question is, can we repeat it... (together)... The idea is that if only 3 of us bring only 4 of our best signals... we might get to it.. if in sequence F. Roma anyone?
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #818
  • Dec 17, 2019 2:58pm Dec 17, 2019 2:58pm
Quoting detector
{quote} Ef, sorry about the misspelling, forgot them darn glasses, and to be so vague, yeah, Santa delivered but not to the extent (certainly at the moment) ChinUSA talk could have done if all the hype was to be believed, while I'm typing the Dow looks like a leg down appearing, all a little unsettled however think it could be a rouse, past patterns have shown a sharp move, given this I'm on the side a little until we get some clarity, long would be my preference for the time being, hope your well bye the wayD
Thanks Detector. I'm doing well other than the fact I sold some holdings back in October when the S&P was 180pts lower. Percentage wise it's not a lot, but monetarily speaking it hurts some to miss out on that upside. Either way, I can't complain since it's been an amazing year. I need to do the math at some point to see what I actually made between all my accounts.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #819
  • Dec 17, 2019 3:33pm Dec 17, 2019 3:33pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} Thanks Detector. I'm doing well other than the fact I sold some holdings back in October when the S&P was 180pts lower. Percentage wise it's not a lot, but monetarily speaking it hurts some to miss out on that upside. Either way, I can't complain since it's been an amazing year. I need to do the math at some point to see what I actually made between all my accounts.
Ef, very pleased to hear and hope subsequent years ahead are the same, is that individual or indexes, If I can carry this off in the same fashion, I may look at stocks in the new year, trouble is, they close, or most of them, this for me, working off the daily has always been a little unnerving, many more opportunities though, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #820
  • Dec 17, 2019 4:05pm Dec 17, 2019 4:05pm
Quoting detector
{quote} Ef, very pleased to hear and hope subsequent years ahead are the same, is that individual or indexes, If I can carry this off in the same fashion, I may look at stocks in the new year, trouble is, they close, or most of them, this for me, working off the daily has always been a little unnerving, many more opportunities though, D
Thank you! I've been in indexes. I'm open to individual stocks, but I view them as riskier since so many things can go wrong with one stock whereas I have to be wrong about the economy to lose on the index.

Your 191.7% return blows mine away. I've really got to applaud you for that, fantastic job! You've proven you're a great trader at this point, I think you should put more capital behind this strategy. It seems like you're destined to make a fortune with this strategy.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
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