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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #45,321
  • Dec 11, 2019 3:01pm Dec 11, 2019 3:01pm
Quoting deltaone
long @27.900
out. +10
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #45,322
  • Dec 11, 2019 3:04pm Dec 11, 2019 3:04pm
10 mins. +40
good night...
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #45,323
  • Dec 11, 2019 4:40pm Dec 11, 2019 4:40pm
since i´m in a good mood, i´ll post some ta before i go to another party - again

m1, h1, d1, w1, q1 charts - clean and free of levels or positions:

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trend is bullish to me, will be interesting if monthly can close green. if so, good chances that this longest bull run and most hated rally ever can continue in 2020.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #45,324
  • Dec 12, 2019 12:14am Dec 12, 2019 12:14am
Thanks for the charts ... Looking at D1, I think I now understand why, when asked about catastrophic scenario, you mentioned the 27000 level in your response:
Quoting deltaone
{quote}... ofc. i do: cat exit would be 27.000 if reached today [dec 2, 2019], that would be a crash with high likelihood to continue, turning the monthly breakout into a fake one. but as i said: it´s not over till the fat lady sings. will look at daily nyse close.
Since you specify "if reached today" in december 2nd, would you maintain that "cat exit" if reached today, tomorrow or any day before monthly close?
Thanks a lot,
  • #45,325
  • Dec 12, 2019 2:37am Dec 12, 2019 2:37am
It’s just the 200 MA on the charts. Mentioned this about a month ago and got no interest - hahahah.

Mean reversion is absolutely critical folks. Always remember that markets strive for equilibrium and will touch that 200. The further extended, the bigger the chance of a touch.

I am hoping for this touch soon and I believe the bull run continues after given economic factors.

Delta, what’s your thoughts? The Dow seems to be recording lower highs and European indices have been doing so for a month now. I feel we will know it’s going down if there’s no ATHs this Friday/Mon
  • #45,326
  • Dec 12, 2019 2:42am Dec 12, 2019 2:42am
Quoting Neogenesis
It’s just the 200 MA on the charts. Mentioned this about a month ago and got no interest - hahahah. Mean reversion is absolutely critical folks. Always remember that markets strive for equilibrium and will touch that 200. The further extended, the bigger the chance of a touch. I am hoping for this touch soon and I believe the bull run continues after given economic factors. Delta, what’s your thoughts? The Dow seems to be recording lower highs and European indices have been doing so for a month now. I feel we will know it’s going down if there’s...

Given the seasonality, I think this will continue until after January 1, so that the guys on Wall Street can get their bonuses...

ECB meeting today.
  • #45,327
  • Dec 12, 2019 2:48am Dec 12, 2019 2:48am
How would the stock market goig up or down affect their bonuses? As long as they’re positioned in the right way it doesn’t matter whether you’re short or long...

Its mostly a game of liquidity actually. Smart money takes dumb money. And dumb money is short again
  • #45,328
  • Dec 12, 2019 2:48am Dec 12, 2019 2:48am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Thanks. Clearly you’ve gone before me in doing so. If you have any recommendations of things to read (SSRN, books; any general learning) please do PM me. Always grateful to have the ear of successful people. Woke up to a month’s salary in profit this morning. Motivation sitting at an IB desk is currently low. Lol
Was it a trade you posted here? That's a very nice accomplishment.
  • #45,329
  • Dec 12, 2019 2:55am Dec 12, 2019 2:55am
Quoting Neogenesis
How would the stock market goig up or down affect their bonuses? As long as they’re positioned in the right way it doesn’t matter whether you’re short or long... Its mostly a game of liquidity actually. Smart money takes dumb money. And dumb money is short again

Hm, not sure about the bonuses ;-) Not that I think about it...

But if dumb money is short, that means smart money should be buying it all up?
  • #45,330
  • Dec 12, 2019 3:09am Dec 12, 2019 3:09am
Quoting EddyL
{quote} Hm, not sure about the bonuses ;-) Not that I think about it... But if dumb money is short, that means smart money should be buying it all up?
I do think that there is at least a portion of the bonus that is tied to "open profit" at the end of the year.
  • #45,331
  • Dec 12, 2019 3:26am Dec 12, 2019 3:26am
Quoting EddyL
{quote} Was it a trade you posted here? That's a very nice accomplishment.
My FTSE trade. Took another profit on the Dow this morning too.

I believe in karma so do not post profits or lot sizes.
  • #45,332
  • Dec 12, 2019 3:30am Dec 12, 2019 3:30am
Quoting EddyL
{quote} Hm, not sure about the bonuses ;-) Not that I think about it... But if dumb money is short, that means smart money should be buying it all up?
Well, yes, absolutely and that’s precisely what has happened.

The btd video posted by D1 coined it perfectly. Retail traders who believe they are in the know... think crypto is taking over, Trump is being impeached and the US is about to collapse on debt, and they have been shorting all year. Meanwhile, what has smart money done? BTD... and just buying in general.

I don’t necessarily believe in a market being overpriced. The price is what people are willing to pay albeit institutional or retail. But I do believe in equilibrium - mean reversion, and this market will come back before continuing up again.
  • #45,333
  • Dec 12, 2019 4:31am Dec 12, 2019 4:31am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Well, yes, absolutely and that’s precisely what has happened. The btd video posted by D1 coined it perfectly. Retail traders who believe they are in the know... think crypto is taking over, Trump is being impeached and the US is about to collapse on debt, and they have been shorting all year. Meanwhile, what has smart money done? BTD... and just buying in general. I don’t necessarily believe in a market being overpriced. The price is what people are willing to pay albeit institutional or retail. But I do believe in equilibrium - mean reversion,...
Sure, I get it, and I agree. Just don't think it will happen this year... Although this weekend will decide that - whether the trade deal is reached, and whether or not Trump decided to cancel/postpone/keep the planned tariffs.
  • #45,334
  • Dec 12, 2019 8:37am Dec 12, 2019 8:37am
  • #45,335
  • Dec 12, 2019 8:42am Dec 12, 2019 8:42am
Who’s long lol
  • #45,336
  • Dec 12, 2019 8:47am Dec 12, 2019 8:47am
S&P just recorded a new high. We have our answer.
  • #45,337
  • Dec 12, 2019 8:55am Dec 12, 2019 8:55am
Quoting Neogenesis
Who’s long lol
Trump´s Tweet
  • #45,338
  • Dec 12, 2019 9:04am Dec 12, 2019 9:04am
Missed damit
  • #45,339
  • Dec 12, 2019 9:06am Dec 12, 2019 9:06am
Conngrats Delta1
  • #45,340
  • Dec 12, 2019 9:06am Dec 12, 2019 9:06am
Guys, get Tradingview and setup alerts either on indicators or on price. $5 a month for 30 alerts or 200 for $50

I never miss a move.
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