From Concept To Profitable Trading

Really interesting approach - I'm looking forward to hearing about the results.
Thanks for your answer and your inspiring approach.

GBP/JPY (Trade #13) Update.

Price has now reached the 38.2% retracement of the AD leg, so moving stop to BE per trade management rules. Initial target is at 140.30 (61.8% retracement level). If the market starts to get bearish with a risk off direction, I may hold on to see if the bottom of the range can be achieved (extended target).

Also, on the M60 chart, notice this has made our double top formation and broken the V point. The 161.8% extension comes in around 140.64. it will be interesting to see how price reacts in this area.

Demo Trade #15 Set Up. Long EUR/NZD 1.7060, Stop 1.6962, Initial Target - 1.7259. RR: 2:1. Price moved past my entry a little further than expected, but still a healthy RR ratio.

Entry Criteria - D completion in confluence with 127-138 extension and support AOI.

Trade management - D completion rules which are BE at 38.2 of AD leg (1.7160) and initial profit target is 61.8 (1.7259) by trailing on structure.

This first trade of this formation happened overnight, but posting this to show the set up and the plan for trade #2 of the formation.

Demo Trade #16 Set Up. Long GPB/AUD 1.8931, Stop 1.8885, Initial Target - 1.9000. RR: 2:1.

Entry Criteria - Double top formation with 161.8 extension and support AOI.

Trade management - Take profit around the 1.9000 area as this is resistance at the V point. Expectation is price will make a retest of the 1.8900 area (161.8 extension), then attempt to break the V point for a retest of the double top. The retest of the 1.8900 area will be the entry point for trade #2.

Here are a couple of double top with 161 Extension set ups I plan to test, if price comes to my AOI. Both of these would be the re-test of the 161.8 extension after the first test with expectation that the re-test of the double top would play out in the near future. This pattern has happened since we have been demo trading on EUR/NZD, GBP/USD and EUR/USD. On the first two, the retest of the double top/bottom formation eventually broke through. EUR/USD will wait and see on that one. These will be to evaluate the retest of the 161 extensions.



UPDATE: Price did not cooperate and make the second retest of the 161 extension and now has broken through the V point resistance. Adjusting now to take a C entry on any correction to 1.9010. See chart below. If price makes a 1 to 1 ABCD, then corrects, the 61.8 is about 1.9000 and the V point turning to support. Expectation would then be for a retest of the double top up at 1.9150 area for the target.

Demo Trade #17 Set Up. Long USD/JPY 108.58, Stop 108.18, Initial Target - 109.18. RR: 1.5:1 Extended Target - 109.90 (D completion of the larger pattern)

Entry Criteria - D completion in confluence at 138-161.8 extension, 78.6 retracement on H4 and support AOI.

Trade management - D completion rules which are BE at 38.2 of AD leg (108.95) and initial profit target at 61.8 (109.18 is structure just below). Extended larger D point is 109.90 and will trail on structure if good price action supports.

Demo Trade #18 Set Up. Short GBP/USD 1.2994, Stop 1.3038, Initial Target - 1.2898. RR: 2:1 Extended Target - 1.2835 (Next support)

Entry Criteria - D completion of ABCD in confluence at 138 extension and resistance AOI.

Trade management - D completion rules which are BE at 38.2 of AD leg (1.2940) and initial profit target at 61.8 (1.2898). Extended is 1.2835 and will trail on structure if good price action supports.

Weekly Trade Review. Also, update to trade plan, revision 1

Demo Trade #19 Set Up. Long USD/JPY 108.61, Stop 108.22, Initial Target - 109.18. RR: 1.5:1 Extended Target - 109.90 (D completion of the larger pattern)

Entry Criteria - D completion in confluence at 138-161.8 extension, 78.6 retracement on H4 and support AOI. This is a re-entry from the trade from last week.

Trade management - D completion rules which are BE at 38.2 of AD leg (108.95) and initial profit target at 61.8 (109.18 is structure just below). Extended larger D point is 109.90 and will trail on structure if good price action supports.

Demo Trade #20 Set Up. Long EUR/JPY 120.11, Stop 119.75, Initial Target - 120.63. RR: 1.45:1 Extended Target - 121.29 (D completion of the larger pattern)

Entry Criteria - D completion in confluence at 138-161.8 extension, Point 2 on M15, start of 60% range on H4 and support AOI.

Trade management - D completion rules which are BE at 38.2 of AD leg (120.38) and initial profit target at 61.8 (120.63). Extended larger D point is 121.29 and will trail on structure if good price action supports.

Demo Trade #21 Set Up. Long CAD/JPY 81.95, Stop 81.47, Initial Target - 83.00. RR: 2.1:1.

Entry Criteria - C entry in confluence 78.6 of M15, support AOI, Point 2 on M15, start of 60% range on H4.

Trade management - C entry rules which are BE at previous NSH (82.70) and begin decision candle trailing at 83.00. After exit of this trade, we will set up for point 3 of the trend.

Trade #20 EUR/JPY Update

Per trade plan rules we have reached 38.2% of AD leg and moved to BE. We now have reached a decision point as the instrument is at T1. From the below chart, you can see we are at the 61.8% of AD leg, which is our T1 and the 1:1.5 RR the trade was based off of. However, the extended target is up at 121.29 and is the completion of the M15 ABCD with A being point 2 in our smaller ABCD's going up the longer term H4. Based on the strong move up today, we will look for this to move towards the extended target and will trail on structure. What that means is, I am expecting this to correct from the 61.8% T1 area, create a higher low, then continue on. As it makes higher lows, I will move the stop behind. Hopefully, this can continue this week.

Below is what it looks like trailing on structure. For this trade we will be locking in 38 pips. As it makes more higher lows we will move up until we reach 120.63, then will trail as it makes a NSH towards the extended target.

Am I crazy enough to take either of the below entries long? Yes, if the trade plan says we have an entry, I need to take it. Both are low risk and high reward. Some 5PM EST news on the GBP vote has emerged, but the plan is the plan. I missed the initial drop on the GBP/JPY, but if it comes back to the AOI to re-test and the GBP/CAD gets to my AOI, I will enter per the rules.

Demo Trade #22 Set Up. Long EUR/GBP 0.8443, Stop 0.8407, Initial Target 0.8497. RR: 1:1.5

Entry Criteria - C entry in confluence with 38.2 and AOI support block. This is an aggressive C trade, however, strong momentum long and only expecting shallow correction due to strength long. Smaller position size due to margin requirement of GBP and other trades in progress.

Trade management - C entry rules which are BE at previous NSH (0.8460) and begin decision candle trailing at 0.8497.

Demo Trade #23 Set Up. Short GBP/USD 1.3209, Stop 1.3230, Initial Target - 1.3170. RR: 1.9:1 Extended Target - 1.3120 (Bottom of range)

Entry Criteria - D completion in confluence at 161.8 extension and resistance high.

Trade management - D completion rules which are BE at 38.2 of AD leg (1.3184) and initial profit target at 61.8 (1.3170). If market begins to exit positions on Thursday and momentum is strong, trail down to bottom of range, if opportunity presents itself. If price struggles to get to the 61.8, profit can be taken at T1.

Demo Trade #24 Set Up. Long AUD/NZD 1.0432, Stop 1.0376, Initial Target 1.0509. RR: 1:1.4. Extended Target #1 - 1.0570, Extended Target #2 - 1.0683

Entry Criteria - C entry in confluence with 78.6 on H4 and AOI support block. M15 has made a NSH (new structure high) and broken the downward trend. C entry is based on correction back to 61.8% and support area between 61.8 and 78.6 levels.

Trade management - C entry rules which are BE at previous NSH (1.0480). If price action begins to develop in a bullish fashion, we can trail on structure up to overall correction of H4 areas - 38.2% (1.0570) and 61.8% (1.0683) of the BC bearish leg recently made.

Week 5 Trade Review

Demo Trade #25 Set Up. Long GBP/USD 1.3160, Stop 1.3098, Initial Target - 1.3363. RR: 2.7:1 Extended Target - 1.3580 (Larger D completion)

Entry Criteria - D completion in confluence at 161.8 extension (M15 ABCD), 78.5 retracement of larger H4 swing & support AOI.

Trade management - D completion rules which are BE at 38.2 of AD leg (1.3275) and initial profit target at 61.8 (1.3363). Extended target is the D completion point of the H4 ABCD.

Demo Trade #26 Set Up. Long GBP/JPY 144.18, Stop 143.08, Initial Target - 146.42. RR: 2.0:1 Extended Target - 149.35 (Larger D completion)

Entry Criteria - D completion in confluence at 161.8 extension (M15 ABCD), 78.5 retracement of larger H4 swing & support AOI.

Trade management - D completion rules which are BE at 38.2 of AD leg (145.45) and initial profit target at 61.8 (146.42). Extended target is the D completion point of the H4 ABCD.

Happy Holidays to all. I hope you are enjoying time with your family and friends. Sorry, I have been behind in posting the charts at entry for the last handful of trades, but I will review them all this weekend. Some good trades, as well as a couple poor trades. Busy time during the break, but getting back in the swing now and below is next trade.

Demo Trade #32 Set Up. Short NZD/CAD 0.8773, Stop 0.8834, Initial Target - 0.8655. RR: 1:1.9

Entry Criteria - D completion in confluence at 127 extension, 78.6 retracement of larger H4 swing & support AOI from daily chart.

Trade management - D completion rules which are BE at 38.2 of AD leg (0.8702) and initial profit target at 61.8 (0.8655).