From Concept To Profitable Trading

Hello Guys, please have a look at this here .

Mody88, this post provides no value to the participants and you have spammed this across multiple threads in FF. You are removed.

Revision 0 of trade plan. As I work thru the demo testing, I will adjust as needed.

ZigZag_Corrected_v3.5 Fibo

Do you know this indicator? Seems to fit your method pretty well.

Weekly Analysis to prepare for the upcoming week.

Demo Trade #9 Set Up. Long EUR/AUD 1.62326, Stop 1.6192, Initial Target - 1.6296, Extended - 1.6327

Entry Criteria - C entry point on 15 Min ABCD, Area of Interest with support and good RR.

Trade Management - Manage per the C entry criteria in trade plan. Once price reaches 1.6275, go to breakeven.



PS. Trades #7 and 8 were not posted as they happened quickly, but covered in weekly trade review.

Demo Trade #10 Set Up. Long EUR/GBP 0.8583, Stop 0.8542, Initial Target - 0.8640

Entry Criteria - C entry point on 15 Min ABCD, Longer term H4 with close to D completion and extended past 138.2. Expecting a correction back towards 0.8800.

Trade Management - Manage per the C entry criteria in trade plan. Once price reaches 0.8605, go to breakeven.

Demo Trade #11 Set Up. Short GBP/AUD 1.9037, Stop 1.9088, Initial Target - 1.8961, Extended - 1.8910

Entry Criteria - D completion in confluence with 161.8 Extension and resistance AOI.

Trade management - D completion rules which are BE at 38.2 of AD leg and initial profit target is 61.8 by trailing on structure.

Lining up the CADJPY for entry hopefully around the 82.20-28 range. We have many areas of confluence going on here. Two ABCD completions, 78.6 of the H4 downtrend and at the 138 extension.

Demo Trade #12 Set Up. Short CAD/JPY 82.13, Stop 82.46, Initial Target - 81.64, Extended - 81.10

Entry Criteria - (2) D completions in confluence with 138 Extension, 78.6 on H4 making NSL's (new structure lows) and LH's (lower highs), resistance AOI.

Trade management - D completion rules which are BE at 38.2 of AD leg (81.85) and initial profit target is 61.8 by trailing on structure. The extended target is the D completion of the H4 larger term ABCD. If price action is becomes strong to the downside, we can trail on structure (smaller ABCD's).

Hi Josi, thanks for your thought and post. I have seen some of the ZigZag indicators, but prefer to use my own two eyes to draw out the ABCD patterns.

In developing a trade plan, one of the items I thought about was not to be reliant on any custom indicators, EA's, etc. I wanted to have a plan which was based on natural market movements, so I could trade about any instrument / financial market and be adaptable as times change. The only item I have thought about adding, which is standard is the ATR / ADR to just be aware of the range to help time entries as price becomes extended for a reversal.

Hi Rush,

I really appreciate your plan and the way you are approaching trading. I went through a similar period in my trading a few years ago. Keep it up! You will get where you want to go.

You are right that indicators are not necessary for successful trading. With enough practice, all the information you can see from an indicator is available without it.

Nice to see another Indiana member on here.

Demo Trade #13 Set Up. Short GBP/JPY 141.40, Stop 141.95, Initial Target - 140.20, Extended - 139.40

Entry Criteria - D completion in confluence with 138 Extension, top of long term range box, resistance at AOI.

Trade management - D completion rules which are BE at 38.2 of AD leg (140.67) and initial profit target is 61.8 by trailing on structure. The extended target is the bottom of the H4 range. If price action is becomes strong to the downside, we can trail on structure (smaller ABCD's).

Update: With the strong move up to the 161.8 extension, it requires adjustment of BE and initial target values. 38.2 of AD is now 140.87 and initial target is 140.30.

Demo Trade #14 Set Up. Long EUR/USD 1.1002, Stop 1.0952, Initial Target - 1.1075, Extended - 1.1155

Entry Criteria - This is a test or variation of the double top/bottom formation with 161.8 Extension. In the first trade of this formation with EUR/NZD, we saw a retest of the 161.8, then a move to retest the double bottom. Going to set up the same for EUR/USD on the re-test with the expectation of re-testing the double top formation in the future. Short term target would be the resistance at the V point again and basis for RR.

Trade management - Move to BE at 1.1075 and evaluate price action for hold or take profit.

Skracor, thanks for your post and great to meet a fellow Hoosier. Although I went to Purdue (my wife went to IU so a divided house), still a Hoosier.

Trading, like anything in life takes a lot of practice and discipline for the long term. Forex has its own set of variables to consider and learn, but up for this challenge and journey. Thanks for your supportive words and good trading to you.

Weekly Trade Review.

Adjustments to the Plan: (1) Need better evaluation of H4 for the C entry trades on 15 min. It needs to be in a strong move and looking to take the second correction. (2) Due to available margin with the small account, may have to scale back to 5,000 position size to take all available opportunities, should they present themselves at a similar time.

Sounds simple and straightforward but
how exactly do you propose to do that? What are your exact criteria under which circumstances?

Tweaking will always be necessary, of course, but aren't failing trades integral parts of trading? What I want to say is:
Isn't it possible that tweaking, i. e. cancelling out categories of trades, harms your overall performance instead of improving it because you tried to improve what cannot be improved, i. e. that a certain amount of trades fail, and by doing so not only got rid of bad trades but also and at the same time of exceptionally good ones etc.
So that is why I asked for precise criteria...

I think your thread up to now has been a very impressive attempt to achieve clarity, objectivity and relevance
and avoid all the bragging and self-congratulatory bullshit that makes other threads so depressing...

I hope you can keep up the standards you have already set...

Josi, thanks for your post and you bring up some great questions. Actually, you are a little ahead of me, as I have been thinking about how to make the H4 bias more objective vs. the current interpretation I have today in the plan. Currently, the bias is based on the ABCD structure. If point B has made a new high, I expect D in the near future to make a new structure high, prior to breaking the low of point A, thus invalidating that structure. At the moment, the H4 would be signaling in my plan to look for long trades on the M15. However, even with this bias there are some points which are better to enter and provide a better expectancy than others. Let me explain with the enclosed chart and my thought on the criteria change.

On the below EUR/JPY H4, we have it trending higher with ABCD patterns. Bias is long and I expect 121.5 (B) to be taken out before 117.07 (A) is breached. With a 1 to 1 completion, I can project that the C to D leg will be approximately 442 pips. My intent with the C entry trades is to participate with M15 entries up to point D. If we drill down to the M15 it may look like the smaller ABCD's listed as 1-5 entries as price works it way up over the next few weeks. A way to objectively qualify if the H4 is moving in our direction would be to simply take a range. In the example below, the orange box represents 60% of the C-D leg and this would be the area to seek entry on M15 which has plenty of pips to gain from 2-3 entries. Entry 1 (still may not have full commitment to move to point D) and 5 (at the end of the D leg losing momentum and wanting to correct), possibly are C entries with a higher risk of failing and providing a lower expectancy over a large number of trades. In my week three review, we saw the losing trades in this early / late stage of the H4 leg.

The idea would be to further qualify the H4 evaluation to include this range for a criteria to enter. Next week, this EUR/JPY example should come into play and we will see how trading this in the identified range works out.

As far as tweaking the plan, I fully expected to have to do that. I wish I could come out of the gate with a perfect plan, but that would not be realistic. As I adjust, I am simply looking to provide a set of rules which provide the best expectancy once I go live.

Now, filtering, as I would call it, does impact expectancy and ultimately performance. Once I have a set of entry and exit rules, following those exactly is very important. If I pass on a trade which is in my plan because the momentum coming to my AOI was really strong or everyone is expecting a rate to be cut tomorrow, or whatever subjective reason, that is not good. If you have tested the plan to produce a 65% win rate, then begin filtering for various subjective reasons who knows what the plan will generate.

Thanks again and hope that answered your question.

Will your future M15 trades apply the same entry and exit rules or will there be changes (i. e. for trade 1 and 5)? Or will you skip these altogether?

No changes. If I were to take trade 5 in the above example, same rules apply. Stop would be below point 4 (or the A point of the pattern) and target would be 1 to 1 / or 127.2 extension (of the smaller ABCD on M15).

The adjustment to test next week is to tighten up the criteria on the H4 direction bias for entry and only take C entries in the 60% range of the C-D leg as shown above. I plan to skip trades 1 & 5 on any other set ups. Next week the EUR/JPY should provide an opportunity for trade 2 and possibly trade 3. It will probably take a couple weeks to get up to point D (if it makes it there).