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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #44,861
  • Nov 22, 2019 12:41am Nov 22, 2019 12:41am
Final profit taken this morning on Dax. Possibly time to sit on sidelines...
  • #44,862
  • Nov 22, 2019 12:54am Nov 22, 2019 12:54am
Quoting dcavar
{quote} Hey Danc, I tried to find this about ranges but couldn't...also went to his profile but again found nothing...could you help maybe with link or anything how you use the ranges? Thanks
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=228616
  • #44,863
  • Nov 22, 2019 2:27am Nov 22, 2019 2:27am
1min
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  • #44,864
  • Nov 22, 2019 2:53am Nov 22, 2019 2:53am
15 min chart i bought it dow 30
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  • #44,865
  • Nov 22, 2019 5:56am Nov 22, 2019 5:56am
Quoting jmss59
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=228616
Good luck to anyone understanding those charts!

Dax longs up another 3% today. That’s a 10% change in two days. Is the herd arriving for the finish?
  • #44,866
  • Nov 22, 2019 10:08am Nov 22, 2019 10:08am
good evening,

still keeping my longs. seems like dow is back on track today. 1h:

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fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #44,867
  • Nov 22, 2019 10:26am Nov 22, 2019 10:26am
since i´m heavy loaded and got a cold, most likely i´ll not open new longs today. so i´ll try to answer pm´s and posted questions.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #44,868
  • Nov 22, 2019 10:30am Nov 22, 2019 10:30am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Ah fair enough, re MAs I only really find the 200ema to be valuable. Took another long Dax profit today but still have one position underwater which I will hold as my indi says the market is oversold. Guessing Deltaone is the resident expert here? This thread certainly dates back longer than I have been trading. What’s your thoughts on the below, Delta + peeps? I feel like there’s one final push up left and then it’s bear time. Rationale: - Mean reversion. Based on history this run is over extended and will reach for equilibrium of the 200EMA...
hi Neogenesis,

thanks for your thoughts. working on an answer.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #44,869
  • Nov 22, 2019 11:12am Nov 22, 2019 11:12am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Ah fair enough, re MAs I only really find the 200ema to be valuable. Took another long Dax profit today but still have one position underwater which I will hold as my indi says the market is oversold. Guessing Deltaone is the resident expert here? This thread certainly dates back longer than I have been trading. What’s your thoughts on the below, Delta + peeps? I feel like there’s one final push up left and then it’s bear time. Rationale: - Mean reversion. Based on history this run is over extended and will reach for equilibrium of the 200EMA...
first of all: english is not my mother tongue, so i mainly avoid long postings here - life is short...

ad 1) mean reversion:
you´re right with the description that this market is on the longest bull run ever. still, i don´t agree that it is near to end. reasoning later/ see below.

ad 2) it´s called framing. if you need clarification of that behavioral finance term, please let me know. i think what we see here is micro-framing (copyright by deltaone) since bias, esp. within retail traders and the media which is aiming at those market participants, changes like the wind on a nearly daily basis with a fear based grounding. why? not only the big boys have stocks not at 100% within their portfolios. even more, many retail traders are heavily underweighted in stocks, regarding the last big drop during financial crisis: bought high and sold at climax low. stupid money…

ad 3) not sure which data source you use for that dax longs statement: don´t think that eurex data supports this. please clarify.

ad 4) trade ware news: this is the only thing which can be a short term argument against the bull run to continue. in my book: up to he roof if solved.

ad 5) i like that warren buffet qoute. he´s sitting on huge cash reserves for quite a while, one reason for relative underperformance. to me, this rally will continue due to fundamental change in finance. zero interest -> there is no other asset:
the basis formula for corporate valuation under the discounted cashflow model has two main components: the cashflows and the risk free interest rate.
now: what happens if the numerator is constant while the denomenator goes to zero?
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #44,870
  • Nov 22, 2019 11:48am Nov 22, 2019 11:48am
it´s all said above: buy the dip! at minimum to years end.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #44,871
  • Nov 22, 2019 12:08pm Nov 22, 2019 12:08pm
added 25 indices long @27.869,79. no sl, tp BIG brn.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #44,872
  • Nov 22, 2019 12:51pm Nov 22, 2019 12:51pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} first of all: english is not my mother tongue, so i mainly avoid long postings here - life is short... ad 1) mean reversion: you´re right with the description that this market is on the longest bull run ever. still, i don´t agree that it is near to end. reasoning later/ see below. ad 2) it´s called framing. if you need clarification of that behavioral finance term, please let me know. i think what we see here is micro-framing (copyright by deltaone) since bias, esp. within retail traders and the media which is aiming at those market participants,...
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Tja, Perlen for die Säue. Trotzdem ein schönes Wochenende allen...
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #44,873
  • Nov 22, 2019 4:51pm Nov 22, 2019 4:51pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} first of all: english is not my mother tongue, so i mainly avoid long postings here - life is short... ad 1) mean reversion: you´re right with the description that this market is on the longest bull run ever. still, i don´t agree that it is near to end. reasoning later/ see below. ad 2) it´s called framing. if you need clarification of that behavioral finance term, please let me know. i think what we see here is micro-framing (copyright by deltaone) since bias, esp. within retail traders and the media which is aiming at those market participants,...
I understand what you mean re behavioural finance and framing. Hence my earlier post where I mentioned Reuters' speculative article with no direct quotes, it was merely created so institutions could initiate some more buying space. That I was sure of.

100% agree with you; the economic outlook/fundamentals are good. I strongly feel this bull run will continue after a 5-7% retracement.

Observing the daily chart, 200ema has been touched 7 (almost 8) times since January. Approx averaging a 6% retracement each time. Currently, price is 6% away from it's 200ema. Given this, I feel the drop is extremely close.

I use IG and CNN for sentiment. IG's retail positioning and CNN's fear and greed indicator. I feel growing conviction from everything pointing the same way - greed is high, longs are increasing, gold is due a bounce, negative news is being reported every other day. We are one bullshit article away from a big drop.

Again I agree, if the trade deal goes well I think we're up to 3200. Certainly doesn't appear that way but hey ho - daily news fluctuations and Trump's posturing.

I do not understand what you mean by there is 'no other asset?'. Please clarify. I am sure that has a meaning as I know you understand how risk on/off based assets interact and perform.

There is definitely still a little squeeze left. Whether I personally take a few small positions or not I don't know yet, but you have got some big balls! US indices will continue to grow with the world's biggest economy. We certainly aren't near the top if you take an 18 month view, but in this moment - we are dangerously close to a seasonal top (imo). I went 100x (over $1m notional value) long on the FTSE around this time last year and got killed by the Huawei arrest - lol. That was nasty.

Enjoying the debate. Excited to see how this pans out and glad I found the thread.
  • #44,874
  • Edited 3:45pm Nov 23, 2019 7:05am | Edited 3:45pm
Ray Dalio has apparently taken a $bn bet that markets will drop by March. Easy money if you have it.

edit: Dalio saying he doesn’t have a bearish view in response to Wall Street Journal article. They’ve responded with perhaps its for hedging purposes. Doesn’t matter.
  • #44,875
  • Nov 25, 2019 2:08am Nov 25, 2019 2:08am
good morning

short 13231 SL 15
  • #44,876
  • Nov 25, 2019 2:58am Nov 25, 2019 2:58am
Quoting Wachturm
good morning short 13231 SL 15
SL to b/e now, TP at 13186
  • #44,877
  • Nov 25, 2019 6:03am Nov 25, 2019 6:03am
SL hit b/e some time ago
  • #44,878
  • Nov 25, 2019 6:20am Nov 25, 2019 6:20am
I wouldn’t short this market yet...
  • #44,879
  • Nov 25, 2019 6:34am Nov 25, 2019 6:34am
good day,

put champagne into the fridge, waiting for BIG brn hit again...

good luck everyone!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #44,880
  • Nov 25, 2019 6:40am Nov 25, 2019 6:40am
Quoting deltaone
good day, put champagne into the fridge, waiting for BIG brn hit again... good luck everyone!
almost done
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