What increased your probabilities as a trader? | Forex Factory

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What increased your probabilities as a trader?

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  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 15, 2019 12:28pm Nov 15, 2019 12:28pm
You all have traded the forex markets, but there are some turning points in you career that increased your probabilities and turned you from loser to winner. What did you add to your trading, what was your missing piece of the puzzle?
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #2
  • Nov 15, 2019 7:53pm Nov 15, 2019 7:53pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
You all have traded the forex markets, but there are some turning points in you career that increased your probabilities and turned you from loser to winner. What did you add to your trading, what was your missing piece of the puzzle?
I have a story. I have not been profitable for over 7 years (2009 I started Forex), I have tried different systems with indicators, many with FF or other forums, their settings, but they did not suit me. In 2016, I decided to do something of my own from the knowledge gained over time to find something that suits me. I put together a system that fits me perfectly. I changed the day trade to medium term. Conclusion in my case: stopped trying others, and tried to do something of their own, using the accumulated knowledge. I also realized that you can trade less frequently with a good result.
  • #3
  • Nov 15, 2019 7:59pm Nov 15, 2019 7:59pm
Entry trade only at retracment,
  • #4
  • Nov 16, 2019 1:47am Nov 16, 2019 1:47am
Quoting Antichrist
{quote} I have a story. I have not been profitable for over 7 years (2009 I started Forex), I have tried different systems with indicators, many with FF or other forums, their settings, but they did not suit me. In 2016, I decided to do something of my own from the knowledge gained over time to find something that suits me. I put together a system that fits me perfectly. I changed the day trade to medium term. Conclusion in my case: stopped trying others, and tried to do something of their own, using the accumulated knowledge. I also realized that...
You are saying that indicators doesn't do the work?

In my case I tried many different tools, some I use them frequently and some of them don't, these I use doesn't do the job all the time, but they give me an edge, an eye that help me understand the chances in any of my decisions.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #5
  • Nov 16, 2019 2:00am Nov 16, 2019 2:00am
Quoting Artawidi
Entry trade only at retracment,
This is my strategy! What are you doing if, the price moves more to the other side?
I got burned many times like that.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #6
  • Nov 16, 2019 4:07am Nov 16, 2019 4:07am
I came up with a long-forgotten strategy that I tested almost in my early days, it wasn't good. at that time, I was not able to correctly interpret the interconnections.
with experience behind me I see things in a completely different way.
I have been using this strategy ever since.
  • #7
  • Nov 16, 2019 4:55am Nov 16, 2019 4:55am
Hello dear trader.. Stop go here and there learn from someone hanky panky trading.. Mostly all forex gurus are useless.. They can't trade so they selling system to people who don't know anything, nowday I stop learning from other, MM control lot size to overcome your dd fear, u will succeed.. Good luck
  • #8
  • Nov 16, 2019 5:56am Nov 16, 2019 5:56am
Hi all,
I have tried different strategies. They looked like working at the beginning but all ended up in losses.

Lately, I'm having weeks of break even and positive weeks. I removed all indicators from my charts except TDI. TDI helps me enter in the right direction. I also move to higher timeframes, 4H charts mainly and 1H charts. Next step is daily charts. The highger the timeframe the less that I overtrade and also means bigger profits.

Another thing that can sound crazy, I increased my % of risk to a 5%. I was afraid at the begining but it works for me
  • #9
  • Nov 16, 2019 6:28am Nov 16, 2019 6:28am
Quoting Vic80
Hi all, I have tried different strategies. They looked like working at the beginning but all ended up in losses. Lately, I'm having weeks of break even and positive weeks. I removed all indicators from my charts except TDI. TDI helps me enter in the right direction. I also move to higher timeframes, 4H charts mainly and 1H charts. Next step is daily charts. The highger the timeframe the less that I overtrade and also means bigger profits. Another thing that can sound crazy, I increased my % of risk to a 5%. I was afraid at the begining but it works...
I think the hit rate of the strategy determines what percentage of risk should be.
i use 20%.
  • #10
  • Nov 16, 2019 6:36am Nov 16, 2019 6:36am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} This is my strategy! What are you doing if, the price moves more to the other side? I got burned many times like that.
Close half position at slightly profit or BE,

Risk only 1% or less,

I am too got burned till 10% in first week of the month,
But last week got recovered and 12% profit
  • #11
  • Edited 7:48am Nov 16, 2019 7:21am | Edited 7:48am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} You are saying that indicators doesn't do the work? In my case I tried many different tools, some I use them frequently and some of them don't, these I use doesn't do the job all the time, but they give me an edge, an eye that help me understand the chances in any of my decisions.
No, I just listed what I tried and it did not work for me. I am convinced that there are people with a schedule similar to all the colors of the rainbow, and this works for them =)
In addition, you have added a question at the beginning of the topic. I'm looking for some patterns and then a trend line or equidistant channel. That's all I rely on, and I'm happy!
  • #12
  • Nov 16, 2019 7:45am Nov 16, 2019 7:45am
Quoting pujionojc8
{quote} The 4 Pillars of Forex Trading Success Most people make trading more complicated than it needs to be. Whenever it is not easy to succeed in trading, it is very easy if you boil it for its main components. If you do this, there are really only four pieces of the 'puzzle' that you need to pay attention to. If you are spending time and energy focusing on something other than these four pieces, then you are just completing the trading process and moving forward on the road to success. 1. Trade Entry Strategy 2. Discipline 3. Money Management...
You may be surprised, but I first get the exit point from my algorithm and then in search of the entry point. Then comes your appetite for risk. The last thing that comes into play is discipline, as you mentioned, and belief in your beliefs.
  • #13
  • Nov 16, 2019 8:09am Nov 16, 2019 8:09am
I have a story very similar to the above member. However my turning point was when I realized that math formulas, algorithms, and calculations were absolutely worthless. They mean absolutely NOTHING to the market structure and how it works. I realized that if I base any kind of market interaction on any of these formulas I will continue losing.

My epiphany came when I understood HOW the market works. Here is a brief summation: (1) Anyone and everyone who wishes to participate in the market must do so by placing orders. (2) These orders are made up of two different types. Passive - also known as "liquidity"; and aggressive - also known as "market" orders. (3) These orders are matched with each other at agreed upon prices buys with sells until the liquidity at a particular price is gone. Then price will move higher (or lower) depending on the surplus of orders remaining unfilled. (Higher with more buying, and lower with more selling). (5) These orders are constantly coming and going into and out of the market and create a "flow" which will vary in its intensity and "net" direction (buy or sell). It is the waxing and waning of this order flow that creates price movement and at times will actually precede it.

Anyone who learns to "see" and "read" this order flow has an automatic "edge" on the rest of the market. This is because there is literally no math formula, or computer algorithm that can accurately predict human behavior. In fact, the data required to make accurate calculations will always lag behind the actual market and its price movements and always have the trader who relays on this data at least 2-3 steps behind the market. Yes even price lags behind order flow, (if only slightly).

Unless you leave behind all the rest of the losing technical analysis theories and concentrate your efforts solely on learning the market structure and how it effects price movement...you will lose overall. I would save you that pain and anxiety. Start anew and learn the ideas and concepts behind trading the four structural components of the market itself. Time; Order flow; Volume; Price.

If you are going to engage in this possibly financially ruinous profession...do it right from the start and don't waste your time and money with any of the above mentioned, math (indicators, oscillators, formulas, algorithms).
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  • #14
  • Nov 16, 2019 9:18am Nov 16, 2019 9:18am
Quoting DonPato
I have a story very similar to the above member. However my turning point was when I realized that math formulas, algorithms, and calculations were absolutely worthless. They mean absolutely NOTHING to the market structure and how it works. I realized that if I base any kind of market interaction on any of these formulas I will continue losing...Start anew and learn the ideas and concepts behind trading the four structural components of the market itself. Time; Order flow; Volume; Price. If you are going to engage in this possibly financially ruinous...
Could you kindly point to some relating learning resources DonPato? Thanh you in advance.
  • #15
  • Nov 16, 2019 9:56am Nov 16, 2019 9:56am
Getting rid of ALL indicators and using only price!

Not saying it's for everyone, but it made a huge difference to me...
  • #16
  • Nov 16, 2019 10:57am Nov 16, 2019 10:57am
I have created a poll, thanks for participating in this, please when you vote "other" write a mention in this thread what is the tool you are using.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #17
  • Nov 16, 2019 11:00am Nov 16, 2019 11:00am
Quoting Exciter135
{quote} Could you kindly point to some relating learning resources DonPato? Thanh you in advance.
This is what I was going to ask to DonPato, thanks for asking.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #18
  • Nov 16, 2019 11:32am Nov 16, 2019 11:32am
Quoting Exciter135
{quote} Could you kindly point to some relating learning resources DonPato? Thanh you in advance.
I have started several threads on this very topic. All one needs do is search my username and they will come up. They all deal with this subject (order flow) via the means of price action: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=613543
And volume:. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=723604
And practical application:. https://www.energyexch.com/showthread.php?t=942505
This last is one of many others. These posts also show my personal progression from merely using price action to actually now using order flow charts and if you read them all from beginning to end you will also see the incredible progess in accuracy.

Best of luck
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  • #19
  • Nov 16, 2019 11:41am Nov 16, 2019 11:41am
Quoting DonPato
Here is a brief summation: (1) Anyone and everyone who wishes to participate in the market must do so by placing orders. (2) These orders are made up of two different types. Passive - also known as "liquidity"; and aggressive - also known as "market" orders. (3) These orders are matched with each other at agreed upon prices buys with sells until the liquidity at a particular price is gone. Then price will move higher (or lower) depending on the surplus of orders remaining unfilled. (Higher with more buying, and lower with more selling). (5)...
This is one of the best posts I've read.

I wanted to dive a bit deeper into what really moves the market. The following is part of a post from 2015:

WHAT MOVES THE MARKETS, IS THE RELATIVE ENTHUSIASM OR AGGRESSION OF EITHER THE BUYER(S) OR THE SELLER(S).

Let's take a simplified example.

Suppose you want to buy a car. The price you are willing to pay is 50,000. The seller of the car is asking for 100,000. Now let's suppose we can't just split the difference and make a transaction at 75,000.

The car will sit there and no transaction will happen unless one of you is willing to move. Suppose you as a buyer see three more potential buyers coming. You may now have the incentive to raise your price to 100,000. You are now willing to hit the ASK. This willingness is enthusiasm or aggression. The opposite could be true as well. Suppose the Seller becomes aware that other sellers of the same car are coming and are willing to take 45,000. The first seller would have an incentive to quickly lower his price to 50,000. That is, the seller needs to hit the BID and make a transaction happen before the buyers get word of the other car on the market.

This is what actually moves the market. Buyers willingly hitting the ASK will raise price and Sellers willingly hitting the BID will cause price to fall.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EX 1.png Size: 56 KB
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #20
  • Nov 16, 2019 12:24pm Nov 16, 2019 12:24pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} This is one of the best posts I've read. I wanted to dive a bit deeper into what really moves the market. The following is part of a post from 2015: WHAT MOVES THE MARKETS, IS THE RELATIVE ENTHUSIASM OR AGGRESSION OF EITHER THE BUYER(S) OR THE SELLER(S). Let's take a simplified example. Suppose you want to buy a car. The price you are willing to pay is 50,000. The seller of the car is asking for 100,000. Now let's suppose we can't just split the difference and make a transaction at 75,000. The car will sit there and no transaction will happen...
Hello hidden gap...I would greatly appreciate having this conversation with you and further would greatly appreciate being able to do it with input from many points of view. However I do not want to distract from the theme of this thread. Can we open another thread on this topic and discuss it?...I am currently occupied at the moment and cannot do it myself right now BUT will happily participate in an exchange of these very important ideas. If you do not wish to... that's ok, tomorrow when I am free I will again quote your post and begin this as a new topic. Thanks as always for bringing stimulating and truthful conversation to this topic.
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