I am going to start considering requests for statistics and probabilities

I will not take all requests but leave a comment and I will consider what I want to test..

The testing is based on 10 years of data. (EUR/USD.. see post #7 more details)

I will mostly consider statistics of daily TF and some higher TF.. (your welcome to request anything tho.. convince me)

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HOW TO SUBMIT A REQUEST:

Start your post with a title "REQUEST" and kindly leave the exact criteria.. something like "statistics that 2 days with higher highs will be followed by 3rd day of higher high" (like I said I might not test it but I'll consider if it looks like promising data)

(ALSO.state the

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PS: Others are welcome to share there data if any.. and one last thing... if any of these probabilities help you create a good system the least you could do is share your system with the thread or kindly PM me

AGAIN: Post #7 Raises some important considerations

---------STATISTICS AND PROBABILITIES---------

Here will go the collection of data we come up with... I'll start with something basic...

I will not take all requests but leave a comment and I will consider what I want to test..

The testing is based on 10 years of data. (EUR/USD.. see post #7 more details)

I will mostly consider statistics of daily TF and some higher TF.. (your welcome to request anything tho.. convince me)

----------------------------------------

HOW TO SUBMIT A REQUEST:

Start your post with a title "REQUEST" and kindly leave the exact criteria.. something like "statistics that 2 days with higher highs will be followed by 3rd day of higher high" (like I said I might not test it but I'll consider if it looks like promising data)

(ALSO.state the

__TF and YEARS__somewhere.. otherwise I will test on Daily when you might be thinking 1M or something.. and I will test 10 years of data when you may only want the most recent 2 years..)----------------------------------------

PS: Others are welcome to share there data if any.. and one last thing... if any of these probabilities help you create a good system the least you could do is share your system with the thread or kindly PM me

AGAIN: Post #7 Raises some important considerations

---------STATISTICS AND PROBABILITIES---------

Here will go the collection of data we come up with... I'll start with something basic...

__Condition (current day makes Higher High than previous day & price > 21 SMA > 50 SMA)(10 years of data)__

Current Day will Close Above Previous High = 55.21%

Current Day will Close Below Previous High = 44.79%

Next Day Will Make A New High = 60.26%

Next Day Will Fail to Make New High = 39.74%

__Condition (current day makes Lower Low than previous day & price < 21 SMA < 50 SMA)(10 years of data)__

Current Day will Close Below Previous Low = 52.96%

Current Day will Close Above Previous Low = 47.04%

Next Day Will Make A New Low = 60.81%

Next Day Will Fail to Make New Low = 39.19%

__Price Returns to Open after Making a New High or Low(10 years of data)__

Price Returns to Open after making New High = 61.46%

Price Returns to Open after making New Low = 59.74%

(NOTE: for example, this means after making a new high, price will return to the opening price at least 1 time 60% of the time)

__what is the probability of having at least 50pips of breakout distance from either high or low of 2nd bar, provided that the retracement from breakout point is less than 50pips?(10 years of data daily charts)__

result = 47.62%

__Condition: bar3 (anything) , bar2 ( makes higher high & higher low compared to bar3) , bar1 (insidebar), bar0 (today breaks bar1 high)..__

(testing data on 1 hour chart for 10 years)

probability it will go up 20 pips = 45.94%

probability it will go down 20 pips = 54.06%

__Regarding #3.. of the 60% of times..(10 years of data)__

price makes new high returns to open, chance it.. Returns to last days high again = 68.26%

price makes new low returns to open, chance it.. Returns to last days low again = 66.58%

__Daily candle being the same direction as candle from the previous day.__

45.36%

__Weekly candle being the same direction as candle from the previous week.__

50%

__LONDON and NEWYORK stats__

Average pips per breakout:

(I used net pips to determine trend/breakout.. but results are in actual pips)

(London breakout define as 3-6am(EST).. Newyork breakout define as 8am-12pm(EST)

(10 years data)

London up = 40 pips

(this means if London breaksout upward.. it averages 40 pip upmove)

London down = 39 pips

(this means if London breaksout Downward.. it averages 40 pip down move)etc. for rest of results

NewYork up = 57 pips

NewYork down = 56 pips

(Last 2 years data)

London up = 54 pips

London down = 57 pips

NewYork up = 76 pips

NewYork down = 73 pips

NEWYORK & LONDON Copy eachother? :

(10 Years)

NEWYORK copied LONDON = 49.19%

LONDON copied NEWYORK = 48.23%

(Last 2 Years)

NEWYORK copied LONDON = 49.92%

LONDON copied NEWYORK = 49.14%

(10 years)

London's direction today will be London's direction tomorrow = 47.73%

NewYork's direction today will be NewYork's direction tomorrow = 47.82%

- Regarding #3 and #5

__I ran the test again.. this is the result when you use the previous bars middle point rather than the newbars open price (which is same as last bars close price)__

so the middle point of previous bar..

it makes new high.. chance it returns to previous bars mean = 38.92%

so now its made a new high and return to the mean point.. chance it makes it back to the high = 30.29%

and if you want to know the percent of times over a 10 year period that price made a new high.. return to mean of previous bar.. and then made it back to the high.. 10.22%

Just wanted to show the relationship to risk to reward.. or the fact that in previous test 3 and 5 the open price was often near the high resulting in high winning chances.. but considering the risk to reward.. you draw your own conclusions

__Will the weekend gap fade?__

Yes it will fade = 53.97% of the time

NOTE: This is done with 1:1 risk to reward.. so if the weekend gap was 50 pips.. will it fade the 50 pips.. or go the opposite direction 50 pips..

__Standard Deviation__

if price goes to +1 SD or -1 SD.. you immediately place a trade in direction of the average, with TP at the average, and SL at +2 or -2 SD (to get 1:1 risk to reward)

chance you will get your TP = 54.23%

__Its Friday and just after London close__

the week was up.. does the EUR/USD retrace in direction before forex closes for the weekend? Will everyone take their profits before the weekend?

NO! more often than not the last few hours of Friday will continue in the direction of the weeks trend..

Friday after London closes: (10 years data)

Continues in weeks direction = 56.10%

Retraces direction = 43.90%