Dislikedany upside is going to be short-lived in NZDUSD, since rate cuts are not positive for the underlying currency + the unhealthy retail in sentiment signals further losses. 6100-6150 next 4-6 weeks very likely at this rate of decline. I'd rather focus on short selling any rips/bounces after RBNZ.Ignored
- #13,702
- Nov 12, 2019 2:54pm Nov 12, 2019 2:54pm
- Joined Feb 2014 | Status: trading bank levels | 8,143 Posts
I'd take it one step at a time.
Right now I will be focused on buying the dip after RBNZ.
Right now I will be focused on buying the dip after RBNZ.
- #13,704
- Nov 12, 2019 7:07pm Nov 12, 2019 7:07pm
- Joined May 2014 | Status: From1toMillion | 9,482 Posts | Online Now
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
- #13,708
- Nov 12, 2019 10:39pm Nov 12, 2019 10:39pm
NZD/USD analysis | Nov 13, 2019
The 3-drive pattern mentioned in previous analysis has completed its minimum target on Nov 08 as price closed below low of Oct 30. Besides this technical factor, the fundamental factor of the fall was probability of Official Cash Rate Cut. But RBNZ didn't cut OCR today and this surprise built bullish scenario back again as the price erased fall of almost last six trading days in minutes. Not only did it erase the fall but also stayed around 0.6400 until end of RBNZ press conference. In press conference, governor Orr said that economy as per his assessment is doing well, so he doesn't see a need of rate cut.
On daily/D1 time-frame: target is where ABCD161.8 & abcd61.8 coincides, this area also makes a resistance cluster with FIB50.0 of whole swing down and previous swing lows.
On H1 time-frame: Overbought RSI makes a ground for some downward correction/retracement. FIB50.0 coincides with previous swing high, which makes this price level a significant support. If the pair retraces down to this support level, there is high probability that it may return back to upside from here. Therefore, we have a buy limit here. However, we cannot be sure that it will retrace down to this support level, so we have already entered half buy position and kept half for buy limit.
The 3-drive pattern mentioned in previous analysis has completed its minimum target on Nov 08 as price closed below low of Oct 30. Besides this technical factor, the fundamental factor of the fall was probability of Official Cash Rate Cut. But RBNZ didn't cut OCR today and this surprise built bullish scenario back again as the price erased fall of almost last six trading days in minutes. Not only did it erase the fall but also stayed around 0.6400 until end of RBNZ press conference. In press conference, governor Orr said that economy as per his assessment is doing well, so he doesn't see a need of rate cut.
On daily/D1 time-frame: target is where ABCD161.8 & abcd61.8 coincides, this area also makes a resistance cluster with FIB50.0 of whole swing down and previous swing lows.
On H1 time-frame: Overbought RSI makes a ground for some downward correction/retracement. FIB50.0 coincides with previous swing high, which makes this price level a significant support. If the pair retraces down to this support level, there is high probability that it may return back to upside from here. Therefore, we have a buy limit here. However, we cannot be sure that it will retrace down to this support level, so we have already entered half buy position and kept half for buy limit.
- #13,710
- Nov 13, 2019 1:39am Nov 13, 2019 1:39am
- Joined Feb 2014 | Status: trading bank levels | 8,143 Posts
I'd take it one step at a time. Right now I will be focused on buying the dip after RBNZ.
I can't get a clear read on the chart.
- #13,713
- Nov 13, 2019 3:45am Nov 13, 2019 3:45am
- Joined Feb 2014 | Status: trading bank levels | 8,143 Posts
- #13,719
- Nov 20, 2019 9:48pm Nov 20, 2019 9:48pm
NZD/USD analysis | Nov 13, 2019 The 3-drive pattern mentioned in previous analysis has completed its minimum target on Nov 08 as price closed below low of Oct 30. Besides this technical factor, the fundamental factor of the fall was probability of Official Cash Rate Cut. But RBNZ didn't cut OCR today and this surprise built bullish scenario back again as the price erased fall of almost last six trading days in minutes. Not only did it erase the fall but also stayed...
