NZD/USD

New Buy limit NZD/USD

Fundamental: Besides the NFP fundamentals I wrote earlier, weaker than forecast ISM Manufacturing PMI weakened USD; and NZD/USD already hit minor target 0.64523 that was abcd61.8 (view abcd61.8 in previous NZD/USD-post).
Technical at daily/D1 time-frame: Technical analysis for the pair is still same as I wrote earlier and we can target ABCD 161.8 (major target). It is not overbought yet, so there is enough room for it to go to the major target. But we should wait for a minor downward retracement for better entry price.


At H1 time-frame:
I have placed buy limit at 30% retracement (+spread) of recent swing made on H1 after FOMC. If we compare the SL with target, we have almost 1:2::risk:reward.

Looking at the daily rate, it is an upward trend.
However, I want to aim for a short circuit around 0.64990, which seems to be a resistance line.

#NZDUSD / H4

NZDUSD daily candel have open below up trendline, potenzial for down move.

I am long on NZDUSD based on D1

NZD/USD analysis | Nov 07, 2019

Although I had entered a little early in NZD/USD (it retraced down a little more), I am still bullish in NZD as I was in previous analysis.
The last swing down on daily/D1 time-frame looks just like previous two downward retracements, it doesn't seem to be a reversal. These three harmonic retracements make a setup for further continuation.
A look alike 3-drive pattern was formed, 2nd drive was 161.8 of 1st retracement and 3rd drive was 1272.2 of 2nd retracement (these expansions have not been plotted on chart); thus it is mathematically fulfills the criteria to be a 3-drive.
3-drive is a reversal pattern which actually shows/is formed by the exhaustion of market speed, exhausted market makes slower 2nd and slowest 3rd drive and then collapse to cause a reversal. But, this 3-drive is not showing exhaustion of market because 2nd drive is way faster than 1st and even 3rd is faster than 1st drive. Although, market has respected this look alike pattern and cause the 3rd retracement, this 3-drive doesn't seem to be perfect and can't seem to cause full reversal. Hence, this pattern doesn't contradict with the idea of further upward continuation.
ABCD161.8 (0.64831) and a'b'c'd'100.0(0.64776) almost coincide. We can set TP in mid of them.
Risk: Setup fails if any D1/daily candle closes below c/a'. Note that minimum target of 3-drive is to erase the last/3rd drive. It means that if NZD/USD closes below c/a', the 3-drive will be said to have completed minimum target; then it will be considered significant despite it's not perfect, so then it may cause even further fall.

Think NZDUSD is stuck in a range while waiting for RBNZ decision on 13th of Nov. While the market likely priced in the 0.25 cut, there were still a lot of speculation about it moving price sideways. Further positive news on US-China deal may still bring it up a bit, but RBNZ cut will likely move it to 6315 and potentially will break into 6294-6298 range for the week of 18th.

TP 1/2 per pic. Will tighten SL as news in 1 hr, but strong 15min bull candle.. at resistance. Watching close

TP .63741. Wanted to leave it but with news coming happy to take 11pips solid profit.

Shorting NU .6347

Data of "Inflation Expectations q/q" (Tuesday) for me will be key on further positioning. There's a good chance that if it will be better than the forecast, the OCR (Wednesday) won't change and I'll be long with target of .6430-.6440 range. If not, I'll be positioning my shorts with target of .6280 and lower.

maybe sell with Stochastic

NZD/USD analysis | Nov 11, 2019

As per risk part of my previous analysis, NZD has technically turned bearish because the 3-drive has been fully validated as price broke below previous swing low.
We can target next support that is FIB61.8 of the whole swing up. Set TP 2.0 pips + spread above FIB61.8.

Risk: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and statement is due to release at 8 p.m. EST, Nov 12 ( 2 p.m. NZ time, Nov 13). 60% of analysts all over the globe are expecting a rate cut to 0.75% but 40% analysts including Westpac are expecting no rate cut and similar statement to that of Sep 25.

This uncertainty led NZD to a new low in last week and may continue to weigh on it more because professional traders sell during uncertainty.

Nevertheless, profit taking from sell positions ahead of the news may push NZ a bit higher; therefore current sell position has tight stop and we should move SL to BE as soon as we get +10.0 pips floating.

Change/update: we should move SL to BE as soon as we get +15.0 pips floating.

Inflation expectations declined raising probability of a cut tomorrow. I continue to keep negative view for NZD with further downside until .6280.

Ahead of RBNZ decision, closed sell trade with +25.0 pips at closure of London session.

NU update and trade plan with SL/TP into RBNZ
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZ...AN-WITH-SL-TP/

H1 PA compressing into trn now, so break down after RBNZ is very likely, since a rate cut odds are high.
however, the key is the RBNZ stance / forward guidance at the conference.
This in turn may produce a knee-jerk reaction 6300 - 6375.

I don't recommend entering any trades before the press conference.

any upside is going to be short-lived in NZDUSD, since rate cuts are not positive for the underlying currency + the unhealthy retail in sentiment signals further losses.
6100-6150 next 4-6 weeks very likely at this rate of decline.
I'd rather focus on short selling any rips/bounces after RBNZ.