Is anyone interested in why I took the EU or UC trade?
Ignored
Yes, SentiFx, I am more interested in the UC trade as the sentiment was massively stacked for the sell side (94% Retail Positioned Long)..What made you go with the sheep on this one?
I do understand the EU trade as the Sentiment and Market structure were aligned (easy one this one)
{quote} Yes, SentiFx, I am more interested in the UC trade as the sentiment was massively stacked for the sell side (94% Retail Positioned Long)..What made you go with the sheep on this one? I do understand the EU trade as the Sentiment and Market structure were aligned (easy one this one) Thanks
Ignored
Funny you say that, see my screenshots below.
One trader was saying how UC didn't change rates - and there was a Spike UP in price and that the expectation was for US to cut rates.
Assuming all information is priced into the markets (efficient market hypothesis) then this spike was unwarranted.
The US cutting rates should be BEARISH for USD, and since CAD rates weren't cut, price should have gone DOWN. But it didn't, so I viewed it as a temporary mispricing of information.
Add that to my overall view that USDCAD is going to be on a multi year DOWN MOVE, any spike up like this is a selling opportunity. I sold at the LG fill, will sell more at stops above, and sell even MORE at the next LG fill above. If I'm wrong, I will get stopped out at structure above all of that. And that will be OK - it's just 1 trade of thousands and thousands.
I'd say 90% of my trades are based on Sentiment/Market Structure combo, 8% is based on MS alone, 1% based on some other Fundamental Driver or Momentum Force, and the last 1% just for fun/excitement trade.
My UC view overrides any sentiment view and I will take any trade that has downside opportunity.
{quote} Funny you say that, see my screenshots below. One trader was saying how UC didn't change rates - and there was a Spike UP in price and that the expectation was for US to cut rates. Assuming all information is priced into the markets (efficient market hypothesis) then this spike was unwarranted. The US cutting rates should be BEARISH for USD, and since CAD rates weren't cut, price should have gone DOWN. But it didn't, so I viewed it as a temporary mispricing of information. Add that to my overall view that USDCAD is going to be on a multi...
Ignored
@SentiFX, Thanks for that..I have been following the way you look at the markets since the day you opened this thread and I must say that my trading has changed for the better ever since that day....Thanks to you Sir...
One question I have though...How do you handle trades when you have a Market structure break and have a sentiment analysis that is not coinciding with that structure break (e.g AU breaks structure to the upside and the sentiment is still 80% retail positioned Long)..Do you weigh your decision more on the structure break and trust that sentiment is shifting but not apparent or do you stay out until both align for one side? Hope my question is clear...
UC position is still up 24 PIPS, I would really like for price to move up into my other 2 sell orders. Who wants price to move against them? In this case I do as I still believe any higher prices are good entries short for a longer term trade. My personal struggle is holding on for weeks. Always has been. But if I can find my inner holding power, this could be a very profitable trade.
Ignored
UC is looking really appealing especially for the downside..Yes you might have to hold and forget about this one as I see that on D1 there is a Market Structure break to the downside and Retail is heavily long at the same time..High probability trade indeed...
{quote} @SentiFX, Thanks for that..I have been following the way you look at the markets since the day you opened this thread and I must say that my trading has changed for the better ever since that day....Thanks to you Sir... One question I have though...How do you handle trades when you have a Market structure break and have a sentiment analysis that is not coinciding with that structure break (e.g AU breaks structure to the upside and the sentiment is still 80% retail positioned Long)..Do you weigh your decision more on the structure break and...
Ignored
That's good to hear that you're looking at the markets in new light Gceezee and that I was able to help with that. Thank you.
As far as how to handle MS breaks and Sentiment misalignment - there are a few ways to approach it. Usually one lead the other and it can be just by a little or by a lot. If there is a HUGE Sentiment shift (y axis cross, x axis cross, move into strong zones) but MS is not responding, you can wait for MS to respond for first and then put on more risk - or you could put on less risk and go with the trade anyway in the expected direction - or you could have an entry order where MS should break and if the entry gets hit, hoping for continuation.
The challenge with the last option is from my experience sometimes its a GG (Grab and Go) so my order (liquidity) gets taken and then gets stopped. It's more risk to do it that way - the LESS risk is to wait for MS to break strong, then buy the pullback to the original break (where Trapped Traders are). This is when MM's have tipped their hand and the directional order flow is clearly on your side and in alignment with going against the herd.
If MS is doing something different then sentiment, sometimes I take the trade anyway but again without as much leverage. I save the big leverage trades when BOTH are in alignment.
{quote} UC is looking really appealing especially for the downside..Yes you might have to hold and forget about this one as I see that on D1 there is a Market Structure break to the downside and Retail is heavily long at the same time..High probability trade indeed...
Ignored
Yes if you look back at threads or watch the Youtube videos, you'll see that we were interested in this short a few weeks ago and called out key (top) area before it was known to be a recent top. At the time, sentiment DID NOT align, but structurally it was a great place to enter based on the weekly chart (where previous trapped traders were).
Expecting the market cycle to play out on this one fully which I'm projecting to be 2022 or 2023 - thousands of pips south.
Again with UC, I really don't care what sentiment says as I will enter short whenever the opportunity arises with a shift down in structure, selling LGs and Stops. And the reason for that is all the above, I have a strong longer term view of CAD appreciating more than USD over the next few years.
That of course doesn't mean there will not be long opportunities - there will.
It also doesn't mean UC will move straight down and will be an easy sell all the way down.
But it does mean if my reading and analysis is correct, that your HIGHEST probability trades will be to the downside with UC.
If you can wait for the opportunities (however you view opportunities - Sentiment, MS, Moving Averages, Pivot Points, Fibs, Star Patterns, Chicken Bones) to strike on the sell side, I believe you have the greatest chance to profit with your sell side trades.
{quote} That's good to hear that you're looking at the markets in new light Gceezee and that I was able to help with that. Thank you. As far as how to handle MS breaks and Sentiment misalignment - there are a few ways to approach it. Usually one lead the other and it can be just by a little or by a lot. If there is a HUGE Sentiment shift (y axis cross, x axis cross, move into strong zones) but MS is not responding, you can wait for MS to respond for first and then put on more risk - or you could put on less risk and go with the trade anyway in the...
Ignored
Yes SentiFX, This makes a lot of sense to me now...I have had a lot of trades that I missed whereby MS was leading and only to find out later that the Sentiment was shifting behind the scenes...Thank you so much, this brings much more clarity now...
{quote} Yes if you look back at threads or watch the Youtube videos, you'll see that we were interested in this short a few weeks ago and called out key (top) area before it was known to be a recent top. At the time, sentiment DID NOT align, but structurally it was a great place to enter based on the weekly chart (where previous trapped traders were). Expecting the market cycle to play out on this one fully which I'm projecting to be 2022 or 2023 - thousands of pips south. Again with UC, I really don't care what sentiment says as I will enter short...
Ignored
I see it as well that the highest probabilities are on the downside on this one..I am just waiting for my strike zones to trigger, so as to go short on this one..I also cannot hold for too long to save my life lol..I will be targeting the low hanging fruit myself on this one and rinse and repeat until we get to the destination should all goes well...
Thanks man...Your thread has helped me a lot in my trading...
Good Day Traders - Hope you all have been able to take the profitable signals that I have been sharing week after week. Just wanted to give you an update as to where we are with SentiFX and where we are headed. Today I released a SentiFX Beginner course to get new members up to speed quickly on Sentiment Trading and Market Structure Trading. We combine both types of trading to extract profit from the market week after week. EURUSD was a great example how Sentiment was a LEADING INDICATOR before Market Structure change and to date has been over a...
{quote} Subcribed a long time ago. Didn't get anything.
Ignored
Hi princefred, I don't know your email/username but if you are a member - when you log in to the site, you should have an education button on the left that you can access the SentiFX Beginner course and starting this weekend will have the first piece of the Market Structure Deep Dive available.
If you're having trouble accessing - please contact Bob or myself.
{quote} I see it as well that the highest probabilities are on the downside on this one..I am just waiting for my strike zones to trigger, so as to go short on this one..I also cannot hold for too long to save my life lol..I will be targeting the low hanging fruit myself on this one and rinse and repeat until we get to the destination should all goes well... Thanks man...Your thread has helped me a lot in my trading...
Ignored
Gceezee, the struggle is real for long hold times. But not only do we get paid to wait, we also save broker fees and spread by trading less frequently. And better yet, if we trade the very high probability trades (Sentiment and MS alignment) - our accounts grow much faster.
I really would classify myself as more of a single leg swing trader - trading level to level and depending on the situation will leave a piece on the table to squeeze more out of the trade.
Really glad that the thread has helped you with your trading! This business is tough enough as it is for multiple reasons and most of the material out there shared by furu's is just straight up garbage with no edge.
I would imagine by now anyone who has been following and taken any of the real time trades has witnessed the true power of Sentiment Shifting and Positioning in combination with Market Structure Alignment.
When I see opportunities for the short UC trade, I'll try to post them here (with charts). Short side only of course. Doesn't mean I won't take the long side trades if in alignment with Senti / MS , but will do so with lower risk and lower expectations (LG Fill only - not Stop Hunts or GGs).
{quote} Gceezee, the struggle is real for long hold times. But not only do we get paid to wait, we also save broker fees and spread by trading less frequently. And better yet, if we trade the very high probability trades (Sentiment and MS alignment) - our accounts grow much faster. I really would classify myself as more of a single leg swing trader - trading level to level and depending on the situation will leave a piece on the table to squeeze more out of the trade. Really glad that the thread has helped you with your trading! This business is...
Ignored
SentiFX, Thank you very much for sharing...Indeed, Sentiment and MS alignment has true power and I have witnessed it myself man...I will keep a keen eye on that UC as well...
By the way I always look forward to your E.O.W analysis and forecast for the upcoming week on Youtube..Keep it up man and keep shining...
{quote} SentiFX, Thank you very much for sharing...Indeed, Sentiment and MS alignment has true power and I have witnessed it myself man...I will keep a keen eye on that UC as well... By the way I always look forward to your E.O.W analysis and forecast for the upcoming week on Youtube..Keep it up man and keep shining...
Ignored
Thank you for the kind words Gceezee, will have a EoWA tomorrow sometime and will post a link.
Really excited about what Bob has added to the SentiFX tool starting this upcoming week... emailed alerts with visuals!
Now, if I'm away from my computer or out and about or on vacation.. I will get emails whenever a Sentiment signal is triggered (x axis cross, y axis cross, or strong threshold entry) and will know if the signal was a buy or sell, get a sentiment snapshot, and a 1H and 4H price snapshot with DC for quick MS analysis and 2 longer term MAs to assess flow.
And to top it off, next he is going to look at adding alerts when any pair has made a structural change (change in Order Flow).
What a game changer! Especially if I can't stare at the charts and Sentiment Tool all the time. Thanks Bob!!!!
