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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #921
  • Oct 25, 2019 8:28am Oct 25, 2019 8:28am
Quoting The-Flipper
Trading is fu**ing boring if you know how to do it. And then it becomes a patience game, even though there are plenty of good opportunities every day. It's basically exploiting the whole market/system vulnerabilities by seeing first what's going on, and to basically know the outcome to a certain degree, level and interval. What others don't see, don't look at and don't understand, you do. And right now there is no A.I. or coded system which can beat that.
May I just ask you one thing?!
What kind of screeners are you using, to scan the market and not to have to go through all assets one by one?!
As you mentioned 'boringnes'; using software/AI support can make it much more pleasing.

Professional traders do not sit in front of the same assets day by day; either they trade stocks, or commodities, forex, indices... depending on news base/volatility. That makes it much more interesting.
  • #922
  • Oct 25, 2019 1:38pm Oct 25, 2019 1:38pm
Quoting Fx-Gamer
{quote} May I just ask you one thing?! What kind of screeners are you using, to scan the market and not to have to go through all assets one by one?! As you mentioned 'boringnes'; using software/AI support can make it much more pleasing. Professional traders do not sit in front of the same assets day by day; either they trade stocks, or commodities, forex, indices... depending on news base/volatility. That makes it much more interesting.
I do not trade for the thrill.
The market itself is "interesting".

The whole purpose is to make money, and only money.

I trade the FX market only, for several reasons and there are enough opportunities every day.
(other markets, yes, been there, done that).

What other professional traders do and how many asset classes they handle - i really don't care.

My system is built in that way that i don't need any assistance from A.I.s
(but it would be definitely helpful if any could trade most of the time the Tokyo session when i'm sleeping).

I use my own screeners.
Everything, the whole market and all special important things which i have to see, i do. Instantly, at any time.
  • #923
  • Edited Oct 26, 2019 12:59am Oct 25, 2019 3:10pm | Edited Oct 26, 2019 12:59am
Quoting The-Flipper
{quote} I do not trade for the thrill. The market itself is "interesting". The whole purpose is to make money, and only money. I trade the FX market only, for several reasons and there are enough opportunities every day. (other markets, yes, been there, done that). What other professional traders do and how many asset classes they handle - i really don't care. My system is built in that way that i don't need any assistance from A.I.s (but it would be definitely helpful if any could trade most of the time the Tokyo session when i'm sleeping). I use...
and I agree again.

yes, the market itself is interesting and it is all about the money no thrill.
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #924
  • Oct 26, 2019 1:33am Oct 26, 2019 1:33am
I agree screw thrill that's for day traders...real traders want at least 75% usually 90% probably that way you can risk up to 5 to 10% not a measly 1 to 2%. You'll never see real profits day trading or scalping. You want to double yer account about once a quarter. That should be a fx traders goal..when you do trade 25% in a week is solid, but most weeks theres nothing there and you trade nothing..just sit on yer hands.
  • #925
  • Oct 26, 2019 1:41am Oct 26, 2019 1:41am
Quoting josephcom
Update 13 Oct 2019: Please, after reading this post (the first post) take a look at this post too (click on the link) to better understand what I mean. Thank you... OK, it's time for me to ask the big question! For over 3 years, I've been trying to find a long-term successful strategy in Forex, but in vain! When I say 3 years I am talking about something like 5 to 10 hours a day!!! In a way, I've wasted 3 years of my dear life. I am one of the best computer programmers...
I have been trading for few years and recently have become very successful in it. I have past 8 months performance with success and I believe and I know I have found the way to succeed in trading.
So I will be starting a new thread with my results so all get motivated
  • #926
  • Oct 27, 2019 12:34am Oct 27, 2019 12:34am
I just don't know were to begin with that quote...I guess all I can say is if yer spending 5-10 hours a day for long trades. I guess try holdem at the casino same probability but unless you can cut back to 8 hour charts or bigger and spending less than 15m of yer time at session opens or maby an hour or 2 during economic releases yer just gonna beat yerself up psychology .
  • #927
  • Oct 27, 2019 1:30am Oct 27, 2019 1:30am
An endless circle of bu*l sh*t!

A: I got a new system/strategy/approach etc. Do this, do that and boooom.

B: I did, but it fails all the time

A: you need discipline!



Other possible bu*l sh*ts:

A: you need Money Management
or
A: you need some good books on psychology. buy Mark Douglas's
or
A: takes centuries of experience

You're welcome to criticise me or get upset or angry etc. I've been there before. But, believe me: you gonna like this post sooner or later. It's just a matter of time. See you!
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #928
  • Oct 27, 2019 2:23am Oct 27, 2019 2:23am
I think becoming successful in the markets is like striking oil. A very rewarding but remarkably impossible task. Most investments go under water. Similarly in trading most ideas fail, atleast partially. I developed alot of EAs, mainly trend following. I could never bring myself to follow any of them. They were just too cyclical. The volatility was not much of a problem for me but trading a system for one year and breaking even is a horrible use of my time. I'll do better shining shoes. There might just be too many people already on the trend following band wagon.

The main trouble is consistency. For me a system that outperforms but not consistently is of little use. To be consistent you need an original idea.Generating an original differentiated idea, good luck to that. The time spent will not be less than 4 years and still with no guarantees. This path is a huge risk, so newbies just be aware of what you are getting into. No one blew the alarm for me, open your ears wide and run!
When you see it, BET big.
  • #929
  • Oct 27, 2019 3:36am Oct 27, 2019 3:36am
Quoting josephcom
An endless circle of bu*l sh*t! A: I got a new system/strategy/approach etc. Do this, do that and boooom. B: I did, but it fails all the time A: you need discipline! Other possible bu*l sh*ts: A: you need Money Management or A: you need some good books on psychology. buy Mark Douglas's or A: takes centuries of experience You're welcome to criticise me or get upset or angry etc. I've been there before. But, believe me: you gonna like this post sooner or later. It's just a matter of time. See you!
Have you tried Gann Astro shit?
  • #930
  • Oct 27, 2019 5:26am Oct 27, 2019 5:26am
Quoting josephcom
you gonna like this post sooner or later. It's just a matter of time. See you!
Seeya josephcom. Perhaps some decade down the line you won't be so arrogant as to think that everyone will fail at trading simply because you were a failure.
  • #931
  • Edited 7:39am Oct 27, 2019 7:08am | Edited 7:39am
Yes. The problem is that people tend to overcomplicate.

Here it is the way most people trade:

- Support will become resistance.
- Resistance will become support.

You do not need indicators nor robots to work on that concept that is working since markets exist.

If you cannot eventually develop a strategy with the image I have attached, you'd better try another business.

I think this book contains, at least for charting, most of what one needs to know.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_M...nical_analyst)

Thomas Bulkowski has researched and developed these topics into something more tangible.

But if one does not expend a few years, maybe 5, learning and practising, none of that is going to be useful. Trading is not easy. Surviving trading in the long-term is almost impossible.
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  • #932
  • Oct 27, 2019 7:19am Oct 27, 2019 7:19am
Better stay away reading ff.com and take this for real treasure. 99% of what i have read over the last years are simple trash, nothing more.
Eliminate all from chart to simple basic market give. Price and time. You fear only using this simple informations? You will never take money on a trade, because you miss several filter you have learned alot here in ff.com? You will never trade as you dream from. Cut with trading if you fear opening a trade.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #933
  • Oct 27, 2019 7:26am Oct 27, 2019 7:26am
The thread is back on its old track!!
  • #934
  • Oct 27, 2019 7:37am Oct 27, 2019 7:37am
Found your signatur.
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!

You can not measure market behaviour, so improving is inpossible. Calculate a emotional driven market? Hard work to understand this, many need years or never reach it.

I am really really tired to point this for free out.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #935
  • Oct 27, 2019 8:08am Oct 27, 2019 8:08am
Quoting MichaelSch
Better stay away reading ff.com and take this for real treasure. 99% of what i have read over the last years are simple trash, nothing more. Eliminate all from chart to simple basic market give. Price and time. You fear only using this simple informations? You will never take money on a trade, because you miss several filter you have learned alot here in ff.com? You will never trade as you dream from. Cut with trading if you fear opening a trade.
I have read many threads in ff.com and I only got my time lost too.

I agree trading does not have complex strategies and setups, or at least do not require it.

Only finding a few simple patterns and good money/risk management. I spent a lot of time even with complex machine learning models. All crap. The better techniques are quite simple.

All the traders that are making money have spent a lot of time, effort and money to achieve it. A few have written good books like this man, Bulkowski. But reading a book is not enough to get a feel for the market, like reading a boxing book is not enough for fighting in the world boxing championship.

Take a few simple concepts and explore the charts to find out which patterns work. Bulkowski already did it, but one is free to waste his/her time doing it again.

  • #936
  • Oct 27, 2019 8:41am Oct 27, 2019 8:41am
Quoting josephcom
Another Experiment For Better Understanding Technical Analysis Fallacy Guys, I ask you to open your favourite charting tools (mine is Meta Trader) and place a horizontal line anywhere on your chart (preferably with your eyes closed! Yes, completely blindly). If you like you can place more than one line with some space between them. Then go back in the chart to see something interesting. Very often, you can see those random lines act as very good support & resistance. Sometimes it's so amazingly accurate that one would think there must be some sort...
If you can Identify the No trade Zones, the Momentum Zones and the stay long or short zones.

That is all you need, forget the rest, let the market tell you when it is time to trade or not, and when it is time to get out of those trades.

You only want to be in the market when it is moving so you don't tie up your capital waiting for something to happen.

You want to stay out of the market when there is no momentum and nothing but uncertainty.

You want to exit when the move is over or when the move is ready to start but not quite there yet.

Humans are impatient and it is the journey within that they need help with.

this journey to learn about yourself is an incredible experience, it will be one of the harder things to do but at the same time the most rewarding.

I wish everyone success in their journey.
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Click to Enlarge Name: Identify the no trade zones.JPG Size: 197 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #937
  • Edited 10:09am Oct 27, 2019 9:58am | Edited 10:09am
Recommended reading for skeptics and newbies...
Market Wizards
book by Jack D. Schwager
and also the follow up book New Market Wizards published a few years later.

Real people. Real traders. Real interviews. And yes, have personally chatted with one or two people mentioned in those books (many many years ago) unfortunately for me, they did not share the details of their approach with me even though we spoke generally about their approach (geez, I wonder why they did not give me all the details of their trading systems...)

All sarcasm aside, even if they did give me details of their personal "holy grail" I don't think I would have implemented it or would have been able to.

Could you have bought Apple stock when it was under $20 on the brink of demise and after Steve Jobs came back to the company and worked just for stock options? And could you have added on to your position each time it dipped? Remember this is BEFORE the iPhone, before the iPad, before the MacBookPro, before the iPod, right around the time of the iMac. You are probably too young to remember those days. Most people wrote Apple and their stock off at the time. My boss at the time was crazy fanatic about them and bought in lots of 10k shares several times and just held all of them. Guess what. I worked right next to him and did not follow and copy his entries even though I knew he made huge bank trading stock options (we were developing trading software pre internet days even before google was a company). I was right in the middle of it, watching him and listening to him pick up the phone and place his orders with his broker and did I copy him? No. Did I believe he was a good trader? Yes. Did I think he was extreme in his purchasing AAPL at the time? Yes. Years later, did I buy shares in google on it's ipo day? No. Do I regret those things? Kind of.

Point is, someone could give you every detail of their system and chances are you would not follow through with it because it's not your own idea. Or, you could have some great ideas of your own that worked out well later in hindsight, but you never followed through with them at the time, not because you didn't believe, but because you were not willing to take the risk. This business of trading has little to do with belief but more to do with having the conviction of following through on that belief enough to take the risk and just as important, if not more so, to change and admit that your timing or approach was wrong if your decision was not confirmed by the market.

If you haven't yet. Read the book Market Wizards.

There's more to the story. This same boss, used to ridicule Jeff Bezos when he took Amazon public and complained about him for losing a BILLION dollars in the infancy years of Amazon.com. This was one of the first if not the first IPOs to lose a billion dollars and still brag about becoming profitable in the near future (now this is commonplace in the industry). Anyway, obviously he didn't buy Amazon stock. So he's not a "guru", but still an awesome and rich trader.

Gotta find your own way. Anyway read the book.
  • #938
  • Oct 27, 2019 7:20pm Oct 27, 2019 7:20pm
Quoting tradur
{quote} Have you tried Gann Astro shit?
A horoscope would be a better choice.
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #939
  • Oct 27, 2019 7:26pm Oct 27, 2019 7:26pm
Quoting scherzi
Yes. The problem is that people tend to overcomplicate. Here it is the way most people trade: - Support will become resistance. - Resistance will become support. You do not need indicators nor robots to work on that concept that is working since markets exist. If you cannot eventually develop a strategy with the image I have attached, you'd better try another business. I think this book contains, at least for charting, most of what one needs to know. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_M...nical_analyst) Thomas Bulkowski has researched...
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post12557182

Even if, instead of that spider network, you would draw some random lines here and there, 50% of the time they would act as support/resistance; and you would invent some fancy titles for The other 50%: false break out, break out etc. Think about what I just told you. Click on the above link
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #940
  • Oct 27, 2019 8:40pm Oct 27, 2019 8:40pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} If you can Identify the No trade Zones, the Momentum Zones and the stay long or short zones. That is all you need, forget the rest, let the market tell you when it is time to trade or not, and when it is time to get out of those trades. You only want to be in the market when it is moving so you don't tie up your capital waiting for something to happen. You want to stay out of the market when there is no momentum and nothing but uncertainty. You want to exit when the move is over or when the move is ready to start but not quite there yet....
All very nice if you pick the trend correctly, most don’t and enter too late. The question I often ask traders is why are they trying to trade a trend.
Its a low probability win which is proved by the amount of losing traders out there.

The market is coded to reverse at liquidity zones.
The advantage is we can let it run, let the market make the big move first before entering when price reaches exhaustion.
Far higher win rates this way.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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