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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #901
  • Oct 23, 2019 1:54pm Oct 23, 2019 1:54pm
Trading is fu**ing boring if you know how to do it.
And then it becomes a patience game, even though there are plenty of good opportunities every day.

It's basically exploiting the whole market/system vulnerabilities by seeing first what's going on, and to basically know the outcome to a certain degree, level and interval.

What others don't see, don't look at and don't understand, you do.

And right now there is no A.I. or coded system which can beat that.
  • #902
  • Oct 23, 2019 2:38pm Oct 23, 2019 2:38pm
Quoting The-Flipper
Trading is fu**ing boring if you know how to do it. And then it becomes a patience game, even though there are plenty of good opportunities every day. It's basically exploiting the whole market/system vulnerabilities by seeing first what's going on, and to basically know the outcome to a certain degree, level and interval. What others don't see, don't look at and don't understand, you do. And right now there is no A.I. or coded system which can beat that.
I could not have said it better, thank you flipper.
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #903
  • Oct 23, 2019 4:12pm Oct 23, 2019 4:12pm
Quoting The-Flipper
Trading is fu**ing boring if you know how to do it. And then it becomes a patience game, even though there are plenty of good opportunities every day. It's basically exploiting the whole market/system vulnerabilities by seeing first what's going on, and to basically know the outcome to a certain degree, level and interval. What others don't see, don't look at and don't understand, you do. And right now there is no A.I. or coded system which can beat that.
you would be joking , ""trading boring"" YOU SAID >>> And then it becomes a patience game, even though there are plenty of good opportunities every day. So you do not take a trade when a great opportunity presents it self , but wait for something in the wind and rain
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #904
  • Oct 23, 2019 4:38pm Oct 23, 2019 4:38pm
Don't be ridiculous. The AI is already here and it's kicking your ass on a daily basis!

Who do you think makes the markets today?
Do you still think that the market makers are actual people?
You think some bank traders are sitting somewhere at a desk placing buy and sell orders all day long...?

It's all f*ing AI on the other side!

This was the market just 10 years ago:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: National-3.jpg Size: 477 KB


This is the market today:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dwave.png Size: 1.8 MB
  • #905
  • Edited 6:13pm Oct 23, 2019 5:26pm | Edited 6:13pm
Quoting The-Flipper
Trading is fu**ing boring if you know how to do it. And then it becomes a patience game, even though there are plenty of good opportunities every day. It's basically exploiting the whole market/system vulnerabilities by seeing first what's going on, and to basically know the outcome to a certain degree, level and interval. What others don't see, don't look at and don't understand, you do. And right now there is no A.I. or coded system which can beat that.

well said; that's what I believe too.

human mind is awesome; if you know how to feed it information; and be disciplined, etc.

It's not that Algos does not work; they do but die very quickly.

The reason why complex algos and AI will not make it in the long run; is due to the "system complexity theory". The more degrees of freedom you get; the more data mining bias you get.

btw; fellows; I hold a Master Degree in AI. I have dwell so deep in AI; that got few years wasted in my life. I am glad I did that; so now I know not to waste my time anymore.

Don't be fooled by those funds who are bitching about doing AI; they are only saying that so they don't look stupid in the eyes of their investors. Trust me on this; I have been on the inside of the industry and know what I am talking about.

as i mentioned in an earlier post; I have attended a TradeTechFX conference in Spain few years ago; and met one of those so called "AI experts" who works in ******* Asset management; who presented on AI and Trading. while he was talking and making it look like is the end of the world for non AI stuff; I told myself "AI my a$$"; so I went straight to the fucking source and spoke to the presenter afterward during coffee break. I asked him face to face "are you making money by trading AI" ? he said "They only use AI in analytics and research, and they are foreseeing that in couple of years; they should deploy a strategy that works.

All I did I *grin" and sip more coffee and eat so many cakes that day; and went back to La Ramblas at night; and smoke so many Cigars all night.

I told myself "Thank God" that I got to know the truth years ago !!!!!

My conclusion;
* AI in research: yes; stuff like creating random strategies using genetic programming etc. Backtesting using GA, etc
* AI in trading: Nooooooo, run for your life! get an axe and a chovel; and start trading manually

Trust me; my advice above is fucking worth $$$$$$$$.
An hour of market observation through screentime is much better than 100 engineers meeting and programming AI all day.
  • #906
  • Oct 23, 2019 5:35pm Oct 23, 2019 5:35pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} well said; that's what I believe too. human mind is awesome; if you know how to feed it information; and be disciplined, etc. It's not that Algos does not work; they do but die very quickly. The reason why complex algos and AI will not make it in the long run; is due to the "system complexity theory". The more degrees of freedom you get; the more data mining bias you get. btw; fellows; I hold a Master Degree in AI. I have dwell so deep in AI; that got few years wasted in my life. I am glad I did that; so now I know not to waste my time anymore....
see some very good people like alphadude
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #907
  • Oct 23, 2019 5:52pm Oct 23, 2019 5:52pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} well said; that's what I believe too. human mind is awesome; if you know how to feed it information; and be disciplined, etc. It's not that Algos does not work; they do but die very quickly. The reason why complex algos and AI will not make it in the long run; is due to the "system complexity theory". The more degrees of freedom you get; the more data mining bias you get. btw; fellows; I hold a Master Degree in AI. I have dwell so deep in AI; that got few years wasted in my life. I am glad I did that; so now I know not to waste my time anymore....

It's all part of the journey my friend!

Eventually you will make 360 degree. You will see....
  • #908
  • Edited 6:13pm Oct 23, 2019 6:01pm | Edited 6:13pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} It's all part of the journey my friend! Eventually you will make 360 degree. You will see....
lol; you mean 180"

i am in for simple algos; but don't get too complex.

nowadays; i am happy with discretionary systematic trading; with semi automated trade management.

PS: I just checked my linkedin connections; that loser from ******** still works there; but moved out of trading, lol
  • #909
  • Oct 23, 2019 6:15pm Oct 23, 2019 6:15pm
Quoting The-Flipper
Trading is fu**ing boring if you know how to do it. And then it becomes a patience game, even though there are plenty of good opportunities every day. It's basically exploiting the whole market/system vulnerabilities by seeing first what's going on, and to basically know the outcome to a certain degree, level and interval. What others don't see, don't look at and don't understand, you do. And right now there is no A.I. or coded system which can beat that.
You do realise who you are trading against. Not a big player or some banker from London, the Algo that moves price is that trader.
The good news is this Algo at the centre of the market is dumb. There is a code that’s easily broken down to a few rules and can be traded against.
Traders keep trying to guess where price is going, they never establish what the physics of price movement actually are.
How fast can it move?
How far can it move?
What angle can it move?

If these laws are broken, what do you think happens.

IT REVERSES
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #910
  • Oct 23, 2019 6:23pm Oct 23, 2019 6:23pm
Quoting josephcom
Another Experiment For Better Understanding Technical Analysis Fallacy Guys, I ask you to open your favourite charting tools (mine is Meta Trader) and place a horizontal line anywhere on your chart (preferably with your eyes closed! Yes, completely blindly). If you like you can place more than one line with some space between them. Then go back in the chart to see something interesting. Very often, you can see those random lines act as very good support & resistance. Sometimes it's so amazingly accurate that one would think there must be some sort...
This may be the dumbest post I've seen on FF. Why do failing traders believe no one is successful or that it is out of complete luck? By this post I can clearly tell that forex isn't for you. Go get a job and stop being ignorant cause you fail at the craft!
  • #911
  • Oct 23, 2019 6:25pm Oct 23, 2019 6:25pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} lol; you mean 180" i am in for simple algos; but don't get too complex. nowadays; i am happy with discretionary systematic trading; with semi automated trade management.
No. I mean 360".

You will go back to where you started, to solve the old problems (again, and again....) but each time with completely different mindset and with far better knowledge.

And you are right - the human brain is awesome. After all, it's the most advanced AI we know of and it constantly wants to expand beyond its natural boundaries. We are the only "animal" with such ability and needs. The computer systems that we build are simply extensions of our brains. We outsource memory and computational resources because our brains are not optimized for these tasks.
  • #912
  • Oct 23, 2019 6:42pm Oct 23, 2019 6:42pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} lol; you mean 180" i am in for simple algos; but don't get too complex. nowadays; i am happy with discretionary systematic trading; with semi automated trade management. PS: I just checked my linkedin connections; that loser from ******** still works there; but moved out of trading, lol
Hi Alpha

I have seen many EA’s from professional Algo traders within my network. The current trend is to make small simple EA’s with no more than two external functions. They are now choosing to select only the very best markets (3-5 pairs) per EA and jut trade multiple accounts.
The direction seems to be simple, not complex Algo’s.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #913
  • Oct 23, 2019 7:01pm Oct 23, 2019 7:01pm
Quoting alphaomega
Don't be ridiculous. The AI is already here and it's kicking your ass on a daily basis! Who do you think makes the markets today? Do you still think that the market makers are actual people? You think some bank traders are sitting somewhere at a desk placing buy and sell orders all day long...? It's all f*ing AI on the other side! This was the market just 10 years ago: {image} This is the market today: {image}
There is no perfect market maker or Black-Box (A.I.).
The whole system is at war, the route of money changes every day and there are "blind spots" everywhere.

Find them. Exploit them. Make money.
  • #914
  • Oct 23, 2019 7:31pm Oct 23, 2019 7:31pm
Well said.
  • #915
  • Oct 23, 2019 8:02pm Oct 23, 2019 8:02pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Alpha I have seen many EA’s from professional Algo traders within my network. The current trend is to make small simple EA’s with no more than two external functions. They are now choosing to select only the very best markets (3-5 pairs) per EA and jut trade multiple accounts. The direction seems to be simple, not complex Algo’s. Cheers
hi Rick,

with those portfolio of EAs; do you manually intervene from time to time to close the basket?
  • #916
  • Oct 23, 2019 10:01pm Oct 23, 2019 10:01pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} hi Rick, with those portfolio of EAs; do you manually intervene from time to time to close the basket?
Not portfolio EA’s, keep your hands off them.
We have to trust our testing systems and run them until Market conditions could never allow it to profit that year. I am happy if one single account meets its profit goals for two years out of three, I expect one year to perhaps break even or end up with a small loss. This is why we need to run 5-7 EA’s in different accounts at the same time. My target is normally around 100% equity increase per account which is not asking much out of a Algo.
Outside Portfolios, I like to trade scalping EA’s on the market. For example we could attack GU with a reversal scalping EA. Here I would wait for a master candle / wide ranging candle and trade the pull backs against the main trend. I never trade with a trend, that’s a foolish game unless you are a master trader and bloody lucky.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #917
  • Oct 23, 2019 11:24pm Oct 23, 2019 11:24pm
No suceccful traders here just join our school we will repeat ourselves even though you can pick up any book at a public library
  • #918
  • Oct 23, 2019 11:30pm Oct 23, 2019 11:30pm
Most people repeat anything you can read then charge you monthly to repeat themselves but when you improve it's because you put in the time and work not because some school repeated itself.
  • #919
  • Oct 23, 2019 11:36pm Oct 23, 2019 11:36pm
You have to learn get better on yer own trading schools just repeat anything you can learn for a book
  • #920
  • Oct 24, 2019 4:53am Oct 24, 2019 4:53am
Quoting jetclub.fx
" It's like asking a composer to come up with a "code" for all his compositions. But he doesn't understand this, worse... he's set in his views because he's convinced he knows everything, probably the main reason why we're all witnessing his failure. No... the answer is there are things you have not learned because you're stuck in your one way perspective of "I know everything, you don't and that makes you a liar"..
Well that’s amazingly put. Our biggest enemy is truly the over confidence we possess, that we know everything. This very attitude takes us closer to failure.
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