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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #821
  • Oct 19, 2019 5:40pm Oct 19, 2019 5:40pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Edit: Anyone with an open GBP long position over the weekend is in for a rough open. The GBP FA landscape was negative for the week and I hope no one is carrying that exposure.
Then you should hold your short trade and not closed them.

Anyway the weekend gap down was already known few hours ago, so no harm stating that "long position over the weekend is in for a rough open." But it will be different if it is stated 10 hours ago.

But anyone who hold buy or sell position is just trying their luck. To those who win, they will proclaim on the forum that they knew it. For those who get burned, they just lie low.
  • #822
  • Oct 19, 2019 8:48pm Oct 19, 2019 8:48pm
Quoting failinforex
{quote} Then you should hold your short trade and not closed them. Anyway the weekend gap down was already known few hours ago, so no harm stating that "long position over the weekend is in for a rough open." But it will be different if it is stated 10 hours ago. But anyone who hold buy or sell position is just trying their luck. To those who win, they will proclaim on the forum that they knew it. For those who get burned, they just lie low.
What do you know about my long term trades that qualifies you to make such a recommendation? They were opened in early May, above 1.3000. Are you a long-term trader? Maybe we could swap stories about how to manage long-term trades.

The gap down was known? You knew last Friday before the close that the GBP would gap down? Because I didn't know that. I knew there was a risk of that happening, since it was known that the British government was to take up the Brexit issue over the weekend, making it too risky for me to hold open positions. But you knew it would gap? Did you short the market?

I agree that it's risky to hold short-term positions open over the weekend. But as an apparent long-term trader, I'm sure you're not referring to your long-term positions, since, you know, they are long-term.

Glad you could share your expertise with the world.
  • #823
  • Oct 19, 2019 8:53pm Oct 19, 2019 8:53pm
personally I do not use FA in my trading.......to me is all in the bar if you know how to read each of them properly....

This is what I consider an high probability trade: prices are travelling in a expanding bull channel (market condition), they poke the trend line and stall (a possible false break out)...then make a double bottom (or double bull flag) and at the London opening they print a trend bar.....my gain (at the round number) was my risk....
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trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #824
  • Oct 19, 2019 9:15pm Oct 19, 2019 9:15pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} What do you know about my long term trades that qualifies you to make such a recommendation? They were opened in early May, above 1.3000. Are you a long-term trader? Maybe we could swap stories about how to manage long-term trades. The gap down was known? You knew last Friday before the close that the GBP would gap down? Because I didn't know that. I knew there was a risk of that happening, since it was known that the British government was to take up the Brexit issue over the weekend, making it too risky for me to hold open positions. But...
I'm saying that you post this "Anyone with an open GBP long position over the weekend is in for a rough open." hours after the fact - Weekend GBPUSD is known.
  • #825
  • Oct 19, 2019 9:33pm Oct 19, 2019 9:33pm
Quoting failinforex
{quote} I'm saying that you post this "Anyone with an open GBP long position over the weekend is in for a rough open." hours after the fact - Weekend GBPUSD is known.
I said that the GBP landscape was negative going into the weekend. That was my assessment last Friday.That's why it was a bad idea (worse than usual) to hold long trades open over the weekend. My comment about a rough open was based on the British parliament's vote to seek more time from the EU. That's what may drive the open to gap down. The topic was trading fundamentals. I have no idea where the market opens tomorrow. But there was a fundamental reason to cut your risks. The opening price is unknown to me. But assessing possible risk is my job. Are you having troubles keeping up?
  • #826
  • Oct 20, 2019 1:06am Oct 20, 2019 1:06am
has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system ?
  • #827
  • Oct 20, 2019 1:24am Oct 20, 2019 1:24am
Quoting Okpala1988
has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system ?
Yes,have a look at this guy "Andrew Mitchem" who advertises as "The Forex Coach" in New Zealand.He sells an education package for about USD $2,500,he claims 2,500 customers in 58 countries around the world.He has been peddling this since 2009 so he's raked in $6,250,000 in the last ten years,not bad but I believe he claims to make much more actually trading his own account.I think every one should buy his course and then you can all start making a fortune.
PS.I am not affiliated with this guy in any way,we just live in the same country.
  • #828
  • Oct 20, 2019 10:57am Oct 20, 2019 10:57am
I've said it before, and I'll say it again - In Forex there is no stable correlation between fundamentals/news and price action. And this is completely logical once you know the mechanics of the markets and the way positions are build (randomly) over time.

As long as you get the news at the same time as everyone else and as long you don't have access to insider information regarding the exposure of all market participants and all orders then for you the price action is random and the effects of the news are random as well. It's just that simple. The probability for uptick or downtick is always 50%.

This is not even worth the debate because it's very easy to proof with various EA's

From what I have seen so far, the ways people seem to make money from trading in the short term are mostly related to using averaging and martingale techniques. Some people try to chase the trends but this is proven as fruitless.

So in the search for winning strategy and real evidence of an edge you have to have precise definition about the characteristics of a real winning strategy.

So here I give you the challenge:

Show me a track record or a profitable system which does not use any form of averaging or martingale. Just simple positions with stop and target. In and out.
Let's see if you can find such strategy with sufficient sample and positive expectancy after 3+ years.
  • #829
  • Oct 20, 2019 11:07am Oct 20, 2019 11:07am
Quoting alphaomega
I've said it before, and I'll say it again - In Forex there is no stable correlation between fundamentals/news and price action. And this is completely logical once you know the mechanics of the markets and the way positions are build (randomly) over time. As long as you get the news at the same time as everyone else and as long you don't have access to insider information regarding the exposure of all market participants and all orders then for you the price action is random and the effects of the news are random as well. It's just that simple....
And who the hell will do that? Just to prove or show of? Some people knows, most don't. You gotta keep searching and learning and discovering. . otherwise, you won't know.
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #830
  • Oct 20, 2019 11:15am Oct 20, 2019 11:15am
Quoting edge540
{quote} Yes,have a look at this guy "Andrew Mitchem" who advertises as "The Forex Coach" in New Zealand.He sells an education package for about USD $2,500,he claims 2,500 customers in 58 countries around the world.He has been peddling this since 2009 so he's raked in $6,250,000 in the last ten years,not bad but I believe he claims to make much more actually trading his own account.I think every one should buy his course and then you can all start making a fortune. PS.I am not affiliated with this guy in any way,we just live in the same country.
He became millionaire by coaching, not in trading. Those who really knows how to trade doesn't charge money to teach, coz they can easily get money from the market. ,Those who can't make money in trading, makes money in teaching or sell system instead.
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #831
  • Edited 11:43am Oct 20, 2019 11:32am | Edited 11:43am
Quoting edge540
{quote} Yes,have a look at this guy "Andrew Mitchem" who advertises as "The Forex Coach" in New Zealand.He sells an education package for about USD $2,500,he claims 2,500 customers in 58 countries around the world.He has been peddling this since 2009 so he's raked in $6,250,000 in the last ten years,not bad but I believe he claims to make much more actually trading his own account.I think every one should buy his course and then you can all start making a fortune. PS.I am not affiliated with this guy in any way,we just live in the same country.
Quote
I think every one should buy his course and then you can all start making a fortune.
Gosh no way!!.
Quote
PS.I am not affiliated with this guy in any way,we just live in the same country.
What a coincidence!!!.

Guys I just think that this thread is turning into something where the roaches will start feeding off the vulnerable,

Careful and I don't know how FF can allow something like this to continue.

Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #832
  • Oct 20, 2019 11:37am Oct 20, 2019 11:37am
Quoting alphaomega
I've said it before, and I'll say it again - In Forex there is no stable correlation between fundamentals/news and price action. And this is completely logical once you know the mechanics of the markets and the way positions are build (randomly) over time. As long as you get the news at the same time as everyone else and as long you don't have access to insider information regarding the exposure of all market participants and all orders then for you the price action is random and the effects of the news are random as well. It's just that simple....

Do you want main password access to the account as well, in order to check?
According to you guys myfx is a fraud, zulu is a fraud, darwinex is a fraud... Multiple links that meet your criteria have been presented through the thread! But they are all fraud... As far as I am concerned, its all good! Believe whatever you want to believe... Your beliefs have zero effect on my life
Plus nobody has to prove anything to you or look for proofs for you, you can search yourself, if you exhausted your search, give up... Don't like it, don't trade... Go do something else!
  • #833
  • Oct 20, 2019 11:51am Oct 20, 2019 11:51am
Quoting papamax
{quote} Do you want main password access to the account as well, in order to check? According to you guys myfx is a fraud, zulu is a fraud, darwinex is a fraud... Multiple links that meet your criteria have been presented through the thread! But they are all fraud... As far as I am concerned, its all good! Believe whatever you want to believe... Your beliefs have zero effect on my life Plus nobody has to prove anything to you or look for proofs for you, you can search yourself, if you exhausted your search, give up......
I don't care about personal beliefs.
I'm interested only in the numbers.
And so far the numbers show mostly randomness and noise.
  • #834
  • Oct 20, 2019 11:59am Oct 20, 2019 11:59am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} I don't care about personal beliefs. I'm interested only in the numbers. And so far the numbers show mostly randomness and noise.

yeap! You got it! You already have your answer.... Give up on your search, stop wasting your life on this random crap...

Below more examples of randomness and noise, for those who do not understand what they are looking at... it is all noise and randomness to me

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  • #835
  • Oct 20, 2019 2:12pm Oct 20, 2019 2:12pm
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} It sounds like a very fine trading tool, good work! Can you describe here for us how does that work ? Only the basics, if you're so kind. Thank you.
its based on autommated support/resictance range and volume(if there is volume)..its pattern trading in a way and looks that it has fractal qualities meaning same behavior over all markets and timeframes down to the minute..equity curve cant be regular since there are not many trades..i havnt incorporated the range part of the code yet and i dont have any risk managment applied in the code..its a tough endeavor since i do it on my own in my free time..
  • #836
  • Oct 20, 2019 3:59pm Oct 20, 2019 3:59pm
Hi Joseph!

There are a lot of profitable strategies out there. Of course the ratio (profitable strats / unprofitable strats) approaches zero, BUT there is a distinctive positive number of winning strategies.

The irony in its climax; some of them have been discussed within these fora. ;-)

So if you are really keen on strategies with an edge, we should find some more private environment for some discussions.




E(arb) = E[r^2/(1+r)]
  • #837
  • Oct 20, 2019 11:44pm Oct 20, 2019 11:44pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I did not give your post the time it deserved, and my reply was incomplete, so I’ll give it a better go now. First, your reply was moronic, but that doesn’t make you a moron. Second, your comments about market reaction to FAs is just wrong. The market’s reaction to all and every FA is exactly, 100% (logical, correct, predictable, you pick the right words here). Your problem is, you lack the information needed to follow along with the market. If you can’t figure out that a Brexit deal will help the GBP recover from its lows, then the problem...
Thank you for taking the time, I will not do the same and try to keep it as short as possible. You provide me with one example, but this does not prove your point. I believe that there are too many arguments on why it would or would not work.

Quoting GEfx
{quote} An overview of my GBP trading this week: I closed my long-term GBP short trades this week, but did not open a new long-term buy on the GBP. I bought the shit out of the G$ and GY this week, and all my trades were closed on Friday morning. I had 6 standard lots open on both pairs for most of the week and had lots of smaller trades in the 1 to 2 lot size that were open for 1 to 3 hours through out the week. It was a fun week, but I’m not convinced we’re on our way back to 1.4600 yet.
To me this is all talk. I did this, I did that, closed a trade here and went long after blablablabla. You know what? I was long GBP/USD 50 lots and closed it for a 750 pip profit. I knew price was going to my fib level there. You want proof? No! It is none of your fucking business.

Quoting GEfx
{quote} I trade with 7 accounts and used them all this week. It was a busy week. Finally, I don’t publish info on my trading accounts because it’s no ones fucking business. If you can’t figure out how I trade by reading the journal, then you won’t be able to match or exceed my results anyway. I’m not looking for a following or a reputation on FF, outside of the things I post. If you or anyone have a topic you’d like to discuss about the random and magical market, let’s go there. If this is just more bullshit about how you’re not getting it and you...
- You have no problem sharing your trades.
- You have no problem sharing your lot size.
- You have no problem keeping a trading journal.
- You have no problem telling us you trade 7 accounts.
- Sharing a trackrecord??? Wait a second, that is none of your business!

This just doesnt make any sense, because you literally shared 90% already. Shows that you want to avoid publishing hard numbers and I am totally ok with that, because I never asked for a statement of anyones account in the first place, because I know people get offended when you confront them with reality.
  • #838
  • Oct 21, 2019 4:38am Oct 21, 2019 4:38am
Quoting Viktory
{quote} * <30% per year on average * {quote} * 1st: <25% per year on average ; 2nd: <40% * --- Yes guys, again: look at the performances of the examples: something relatively *realistic/plausible* and not very long-term.
30% on average is good, especially if the DD is < 10%.

I'm so far ~60% for this year and I'm extremely happy with this, probably not even going to trade further this year.
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"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
  • #839
  • Oct 21, 2019 8:42am Oct 21, 2019 8:42am
Quoting michisuperfr
{quote} 30% on average is good, especially if the DD is < 10%. I'm so far ~60% for this year and I'm extremely happy with this, probably not even going to trade further this year. {image}
why you ignored me?
Still learning. Telegram @TraderJaya
divergence scalping All Time Return: -99.8%
  • #840
  • Oct 21, 2019 11:17am Oct 21, 2019 11:17am
Quoting Batuvisser
{quote} Thank you for taking the time, I will not do the same and try to keep it as short as possible. You provide me with one example, but this does not prove your point. I believe that there are too many arguments on why it would or would not work. {quote} To me this is all talk. I did this, I did that, closed a trade here and went long after blablablabla. You know what? I was long GBP/USD 50 lots and closed it for a 750 pip profit. I knew price was going to my fib level there. You want proof? No! It is none of your fucking business. {quote} -...
I share things on FF that can't be faked (a clear description of what and how I trade, as described in my journal and posts containing trade ideas), and information about what it takes for me to trade successfully (education requirements, experience requirements, number of accounts I use in the US where FIFO rules apply, and sometimes lot size, which is in actuality less important). Based on comments I've received, there are traders here on FF that appreciate that information. Very rarely does someone sitting along the sideline call bullshit to my offerings because I refuse to publish results. If you'd like to talk about trading that's great. If you are sitting alone the sidelines with your bad attitude and stack of trading losses, just pissing on my leg because 90% isn't enough for you, then fuck yourself.

I had a great trading results from last night and this morning. If anyone is curious about how I did it, go read my journal and I'd be happy to answer questions and discuss. If you want specifics on my results, you aren't a serious trader and your problems are beyond anything I can help with.

There are profitable trading approaches. The problem most want-to-be traders have is simple: you dont know enough to manage and run those approaches. Get to work! Stop looking for someone with an impressive, fake trade explorer, and instead, start reading the right stuff. Don't be influenced by this loser and the other losers on FF that cant find a trade in a runaway market. And dont listen to me, either. Part of becoming a trader is finding your own path. If you dont think there is money in forex trading, consider this: banks are making tens of millions every month in forex trading. Most bank traders are idiots, yet banks keep making money. Think about that while you're looking for your path.
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