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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #761
  • Oct 16, 2019 2:16pm Oct 16, 2019 2:16pm
Quoting Viktory
{quote} Dude, that's just part of the rudimentary start... {quote} Do you really know what's A.I. and its near-future implications? It has nothing to do with retail trading "robots" or "Expert Advisers"... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nt3edWLgIg * Best explanation I know so far (even if it's from 2016), from a truly great intellectual. His logic is flawless, irrefutable. And for some good tangible examples, also check the fourth chapter called "A.I. is the Future. Will it Keep Us Around to Enjoy It?", from the Amazon Prime's documentary...
if you only know what AI is; and how it works deep down; you will know the truth.
  • #762
  • Oct 16, 2019 2:38pm Oct 16, 2019 2:38pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} if you only know what AI is; and how it works deep down; you will know the truth.
Ok, obviously you aren't updated enough about the topic and its potential issues. Please, watch the video carefully, read the articles... and then tell me what do you think and why.

Again: "retail algos" have nothing to do with bank/institutional ones; and not even those actually approach to the newer AI that is just starting to get tested, which in a few years will logically dominate the financial markets.

"Super intelligent-autonomous AI" is very different to current working "narrow AI". But year after year, we're getting closer to "general self-conscious AI"...

So I'm not telling you that it's already happening with its current state.
  • #763
  • Oct 16, 2019 2:44pm Oct 16, 2019 2:44pm
Quoting Viktory
{quote} Ok, obviously you aren't updated enough about the topic and its potential issues. Please, watch the video carefully, read the articles... and then tell me what do you think and why. Again: "retail algos" have nothing to do with bank/institutional ones; and not even those actually approach to the newer AI that is just starting to get tested, which in a few years will logically dominate the financial markets. "Super intelligent-autonomous AI" is very different to current working "narrow AI". But year after year, we're getting closer to "general...
AI may find some use in some fields; but:

AI in trading = Algo Masterbation

It's hard enough to get an Algo working for a prolonged period of time; let alon getting an AI working. Datamining bias is what kills AI.

BTW; most trading firms that claim to use AI in trading; are not using it for trading; rather for doing other tasks; such as optimization, news reading, etc.
  • #764
  • Oct 16, 2019 4:26pm Oct 16, 2019 4:26pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} AI may find some use in some fields; but: AI in trading = Algo Masterbation It's hard enough to get an Algo working for a prolonged period of time; let alon getting an AI working. Datamining bias is what kills AI. BTW; most trading firms that claim to use AI in trading; are not using it for trading; rather for doing other tasks; such as optimization, news reading, etc.
You know what is funny? If we can make real working AI even at Level 1, then trading will be our last priority.

First of all, just the source code and the intellectual property alone will be worth billions of dollars.

And then simply imagine the potential applications! It's crazy......
  • #765
  • Oct 16, 2019 4:50pm Oct 16, 2019 4:50pm
What most of us here want is a system that will work well for retail traders (us). Arbitrage seems great in theory but in practice the brokers defeat it. We need to have systems that can catch large market movements.
Open to new approaches.
  • #766
  • Edited 6:18pm Oct 16, 2019 5:07pm | Edited 6:18pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} At this moment in my trading career, I have stopped Algos temporarily; and went discretionary. I am still developing manual strategies and testing them as we speak. What I realize so far in my recent few months experience: Algos are NOT the end game Algos will not work forever. You need to babysit them all the time Algos creates a gap between you and the markets; as you start dealing with arrays of double[]; you start divorcing yourself from the market personality, the true action of buyers and sellers on the chart (or tape) Algos requires...
Well put Alpha,
People are underestimating the power of "mass" between our ears.!!!
on a postive roll...
  • #767
  • Edited Oct 17, 2019 5:26am Oct 16, 2019 11:23pm | Edited Oct 17, 2019 5:26am
Quoting alphadude
{quote} AI may find some use in some fields; but: AI in trading = Algo Masterbation It's hard enough to get an Algo working for a prolonged period of time; let alon getting an AI working. Datamining bias is what kills AI. BTW; most trading firms that claim to use AI in trading; are not using it for trading; rather for doing other tasks; such as optimization, news reading, etc.
Yes, that's what I keep repeating: → from the → beginning/start → to the → near future →

But as a matter of fact, I very well know a small Mexican company (founded by a 36 y/o close friend) that currently uses NLP A.I. (not "quantitative" models) to trade the NYSE and Nasdaq stock markets; without any leverage, super successfully since around 7 years ago. Everything from a custom-made powerful Supercomputer, filled with nVidia CUDA for heavy parallel processing with multiple Tesla GPUs; and of course they also have physical collocation in the exchanges, connected to their local server trough Direct Optical Fiber. It's a complete system that of course he constantly keeps upgrading to keep-up with newer technology advancements, from hardware/telecommunications to software/algorithms.

Their only current problem is further scalability. At first they were generating returns exceeding 200% per year (without accounting the infrastructure costs), but as the main account and its positions have largely grown over time, then limited liquidity has become an issue for proper executions [EDIT]. Now it's a > $100 Mill USD private hedge fund, annually making less than 100%; solely for him, the company and some "family & friends".

So, what's the main difference between my friend and the rest of us, you may ask? Well, that he's a true scientist with an I.Q. over 160, working with a personal interdisciplinary team of PhDs in maths, physics, CS and DS. Oh, and just the utilized Bloomberg Data/News Feed, costs more than $100K USD per month.

Prior to that, he started capitalizing with a few self-made HFT market-making algorithms in the CME & ICE futures markets, mainly for the E-mini Russell 2000; also with "colloc" advantage...
  • #768
  • Edited 3:11am Oct 17, 2019 1:00am | Edited 3:11am
@alphaomega

I guess AI has to do with how do we define intelligence.
For instance, a calculator can make any basic operation way much faster than a normal person.
Say a simple 252 divided by 7 ...how much is it? How many seconds took you...? Well, that little baby in the pic below made it instantly.
Does that mean any simple calculator is much smarter than you or me ?
Well, then it means that we've already invented AI much smarter than its original creator !

But if we define intelligence more as creativity and adaptability, than stocking data and calculus speed ...then no AI will ever be smarter than humans!
Even if robots will make optimizations alone, they are limited by the patterns the creator taught the machine.
Don't you think so?
Me, I don't define intelligence as repeating patterns ...no matter how sophisticated!
That's only a tool. A wonderful tool, but only a tool, a machine...
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  • #769
  • Oct 17, 2019 2:00am Oct 17, 2019 2:00am
Quoting TudorIoan
@alphaomega I guess AI has to do with how do we define intelligence. For instance, a calculator can make any basic operation way much faster than a normal person. Say a simple 252 divided by 7 ...how much is it? How many seconds took you...? Well, that little baby in the pic below made it instantly. Does that mean any simple calculator is much smarter than you or me ? Well, then it means that we've already invented AI much smarter than its original creator ! But if we define intelligence more as creativity and adaptability, then...
Please, don't be naive...
We're not talking about just "calculators" here, neither the most powerful actual computers (and even if it's in its infancy, Quantum Computing has already started).
Inserted Video

* Best explanation I know so far, from a truly great intellectual. His logic is flawless and irrefutable.
  • #770
  • Edited 5:30am Oct 17, 2019 2:58am | Edited 5:30am
Quoting Viktory
{quote} Please, don't be naive... We're not talking about just "calculators" here, neither the most powerful actual computers (and even if it's in its infancy, Quantum Computing has already started). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nt3edWLgIg * Best explanation I know so far, from a truly great intellectual. His logic is flawless and irrefutable.
I don't think I am naive. Ok, not that smart as your guy over there either.
But I think he is a seller ...he is selling to you what you want to hear and he's cashing his commision for that
And what is it what you want to hear? A plesant robotic-based fiction

The only way we can get harmed by the machine is ...to become too fkn degenerate lazy and dependable on it!

Otherwise, these follwing laws must be very familiar to everybody:
First Law
- A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. (I'd remove that out, is not wise )
Second Law
- A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
Third Law
- A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Laws.

(The Zeroth Law ...I think is wrong ...because can jeopardize those basical three)

In the real world (no SF) a real machine will never break those laws.
Not even if those laws may seem - in our view - an obstacle for their optimization task.
I am absolutely sure about that. You know why? Because a machine doesn't have conscience. It doesn't have EGO.
Your smart guy doesn't know - or ignores it - that there is no possible social conflict in this Universe without the EGO element
So we can maybe kill each other using the machines, but the machines will never come against us ...unless some super-ego diabolic human brain will code them to do precisely that at some point in their evolution ...now, that's a real danger!
Member
  • #771
  • Edited 3:52am Oct 17, 2019 3:16am | Edited 3:52am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} I don't think I am naive. Ok, not that smart as your guy over there either. But I think he is a seller ...he is selling to you what you want to hear and he's cashing his commision for that And what is it what you want to hear? A plesant robotic-based fiction The only way we can get harmed by the machine is ...to become too fkn degenerate lazy and dependable on it! Otherwise, these follwing laws must be very familiar to everybody: First Law - A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human...
Ahmm, better read/hear a little more about Sam Harris before judging him like that.

And those "laws" are science fiction... Are you kidding me?

Dude, with what you just said, it's clear that you don't understand a thing about this, with a remarkably narrow logic.

Please better stop talking with such level of "New Age" pseudo-metaphysics nonsense mumbo-jumbo...

Some people could think that we could program "laws/rules" within the AI, but once it gets smarter and somewhat conscious with general intelligence (of course it will be possible one day not so far ahead), it could easily rewrite itself with a language that nobody will be able to decode. Oh man, the world don't even imagine it; they don't have any idea.

EDIT: "Your smart guy", lol... so on top of that, you're also making fun of someone you don't even know... pfff... just what dimwits say when they aren't capable of grasping some higher things & concepts, thinking outside of their little box.
  • #772
  • Oct 17, 2019 3:20am Oct 17, 2019 3:20am
Quoting Viktory
{quote} Ahmm, better read/hear a little more about Sam Harris before judging him like that. Those laws are science fiction... Are you kidding me? Man with what you just said, it's clear that you don't understand a thing about this, with a remarkably narrow logic. So better stop talking with such level of newage nonsense mumbo-jumbo ...
Ok, buddy! But that's me, ...the "narrow logic boy", thanks ! ...but those laws are no science-fiction
I wish you have a great trading!
Member
  • #773
  • Oct 17, 2019 3:30am Oct 17, 2019 3:30am
i have wrotte a system that was fully autommated and worked for a prolonged period of time..around 2 years..my partner subervissing it got greedy and we started loading our positions a lot and the equity curve broke to a sideway motion ever since..the system had a profit factor of 1.85 and produced over 200 percentayear with a 10x margin without significant drawdowns..equity curve was going straight up at perfect minimal fluctiations arround regression line..we thought we had the golden goose whitch it was but for 2 years only..since then i work on something different and very promising..
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  • #774
  • Oct 17, 2019 5:36am Oct 17, 2019 5:36am
Quoting mkingset
i have wrotte a system that was fully autommated and worked for a prolonged period of time..around 2 years..my partner subervissing it got greedy and we started loading our positions a lot and the equity curve broke to a sideway motion ever since..the system had a profit factor of 1.85 and produced over 200 percentayear with a 10x margin without significant drawdowns..equity curve was going straight up at perfect minimal fluctiations arround regression line..we thought we had the golden goose whitch it was but for 2 years only..since then i work...
It sounds like a very fine trading tool, good work!
Can you describe here for us how does that work ?
Only the basics, if you're so kind. Thank you.
Member
  • #775
  • Oct 17, 2019 6:09am Oct 17, 2019 6:09am
Quoting michisuperfr
Here you can find for example some performances over 3+ years https://www.darwinex.com/all-darwins {image}
* <30% per year on average *
Quoting DavidRP
Ok, let see >3 years successfull real traders. Are there edges in the fx market? Yes, there are. Are there obvious ? No, they aren't. And yep fx good traders are <1%. And yep, the odds are against you, but all bussiness have odds against you. Regards Btw, the charts are not mine. {image} {image} {image}
* 1st: <25% per year on average ; 2nd: <40% *

---

Yes guys, again: look at the performances of the examples: something relatively *realistic/plausible* and not very long-term.
And here we have some other ones that also look kinda good...

The best I've seen there, but just 2 years:
https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/HFD.4.17/
<50% per year, with around <10% Max. DD

A decent one, with almost 5 years:
https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/THA.4.12/
<60% per year, with around <18% Max. DD

2 years:
https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/FSK.4.12/
Started very well, but this year's drops with almost 30% DD are awful.

+ Probably fake history since mid~2018 when they started there:
https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/SCS.4.5/
(what a coincidence)

+ Also probably fake track record since they started this year:
https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/ZVQ.4.5/

---
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} They don't. It's yet another scam invented by the Forex industry. I had small test accounts in all of these social/copytrade platforms a few years ago. I knew that there is something fishy but I had to make sure that I'm not missing the next big thing. After all, If I can earn money by copying the best traders this will be perfect (in theory). All I have to do is build a diversified portfolio with as many traders as possible and over time I have to allocate more and more capital to the best performing traders. Sounds like a great strategy........
And @alphaomega: contrary to "services" ForexSignals, ZuluTrade and eToro, Darwinex is a legitimate well regulated UK broker, allegedly providing only "A-Book ECN/DMA/STP" executions for retail clients...
https://blog.darwinex.com/darwinex-dma-explained/
https://www.darwinex.com/legal/order-policy

+ The only misleading flaw that I see with them, is that they allow traders to register/"transfer" previous accounts from other brokers with history/track-records longer than 6 months, in order to "start" from there.
  • #776
  • Oct 17, 2019 8:29am Oct 17, 2019 8:29am
Very precise. 40% in one month..nobody talked about what my EA is doing..

check .: Server: GlobalPrime-Demo
Login: 2160203 Investor: j4flybr

SOON IN REAL!
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  • #777
  • Oct 17, 2019 9:36am Oct 17, 2019 9:36am
Quoting alphadude
{quote} At this moment in my trading career, I have stopped Algos temporarily; and went discretionary. I am still developing manual strategies and testing them as we speak. What I realize so far in my recent few months experience: Algos are NOT the end game Algos will not work forever. You need to babysit them all the time Algos creates a gap between you and the markets; as you start dealing with arrays of double[]; you start divorcing yourself from the market personality, the true action of buyers and sellers on the chart (or tape) Algos requires...
Hi Alphadude

Yes, trading with Algo's is hard work, totally automating them is a chore and most traders would never believe how much work goes into developing good EA's.

But they make great money, especially Reversal Algo's.
Probably the best way is to develop Scalping EA's and place them on the market at the correct locations. Here I would see GU running and load up a EA to trade the direction BUT take it would be coded to take small profits then re-enter. Any pull backs it would take the trade only in one direction but NEVER traded with martingale. Just one set lot size and many many small trades. I am talking targets of 10-15 pips, take profit and re-enter.

Simple - EA's do all the work and the trader has total control.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #778
  • Oct 17, 2019 11:30am Oct 17, 2019 11:30am
Quoting Viktory
{quote} * <30% per year on average * {quote} * 1st: <25% per year on average ; 2nd: <40% * --- Yes guys, again: look at the performances of the examples: something relatively *realistic/plausible* and not very long-term. And here we have some other ones that also look kinda good... The best I've seen there, but just 2 years: https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/HFD.4.17/ <50% per year, with around <10% Max. DD A decent one, with almost 5 years: https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/THA.4.12/ <60% per year, with around <18% Max. DD 2 years:...
Initially I had hopes for Darwinex and their investor platform but in the end it didn't work. Just like the other platforms you cannot replicate the strategies as investor.
So my assumption is that: a) their technology sucks, or b) they are scammers like everyone else. I don't know which one is true. Maybe both.

But I still think they are OK as a Broker if you are not interested in their investor/copytrade platform.
  • #779
  • Oct 17, 2019 2:49pm Oct 17, 2019 2:49pm
Blackwave by Gary Comey has more than 3 years of history. Below are the three low, medium and high risk versions.

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Lazard/high-risk-blackwave-alpine/1302652
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Laz...acific/1364641
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Laz...fornia/1601589
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #780
  • Oct 17, 2019 3:04pm Oct 17, 2019 3:04pm
ManhaTTan Club by FF member diamond777 is almost 3 years old. Its presented at https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=732058.
Results are at https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Dia...n-club/3191153
The trader IS the holy grail.
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