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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #81,881
  • Oct 16, 2019 9:41am Oct 16, 2019 9:41am
This chart has knocked on the 4hr resistance level every hour in the overnight.

Attached Image


They Yen appears to be mimicking the same pattern it went through in July. Even bouncing off the same levels. If it continues the level hit by USD/JPY (109.299) during that same time in July in my opinion will be met. After it hit.. we went down. After Yen hit.. it went up. That which has happened will happen. Keep in mind this is a 4hr chart, so this is going to be a patience and money management test. Especially if you sold early. As I did. If your account is in peril.. Hedge if you can.

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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,882
  • Oct 16, 2019 9:43am Oct 16, 2019 9:43am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} I agree, but will "the market" like the extension?
For me, the longer Brexit/Trade war get bad news, the better will be for safe heaven currencies like JPY/CHF. Without any catalyst i think we will remain in this range for a while.
  • #81,883
  • Oct 16, 2019 9:47am Oct 16, 2019 9:47am
Also as you mentioned, after the gap, we remained in the resistance zone for 24 hours.
  • #81,884
  • Oct 16, 2019 9:55am Oct 16, 2019 9:55am
Quoting GPetroff
Also as you mentioned, after the gap, we remained in the resistance zone for 24 hours.
1hr close above 108.9 will signal the completion of this pattern IMO. Set your alerts. Tea n crumpets for all til then.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,885
  • Oct 16, 2019 10:02am Oct 16, 2019 10:02am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} 1hr close above 108.9 will signal the completion of this pattern IMO. Set your alerts. Tea n crumpets for all til then.
For sure bro, i am being patient, market lately is way too uncertain, while a single tweet can send it 50-100 pips the other way. If we get clear breakout i will enter and ride the 2.0 of the shark, will be about 30-35 pips from 108.9.
  • #81,886
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:23pm Oct 16, 2019 12:23pm
Quoting GPetroff
{quote} For sure bro, i am being patient, market lately is way too uncertain, while a single tweet can send it 50-100 pips the other way. If we get clear breakout i will enter and ride the 2.0 of the shark, will be about 30-35 pips from 108.9.

EURUSD bearish right now IMO. While we wait for this paint to dry over here.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,887
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:39pm Oct 16, 2019 1:39pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} EURUSD bearish right now IMO. While we wait for this paint to dry over here.
Looking at this on EURUSD
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  • #81,888
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:50pm Oct 16, 2019 1:50pm
Possible Bullish Black Swan on the Yen. If it forms we will have our 109.3 as well as our sell finally. I am still learning Harmonics, so i am using a thinkorswim script. Grain of salt...

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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,889
  • Oct 16, 2019 2:07pm Oct 16, 2019 2:07pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Possible Bullish Black Swan on the Yen. If it forms we will have our 109.3 as well as our sell finally. I am still learning Harmonics, so i am using a thinkorswim script. Grain of salt... {image}
Harmonics ain't that tricky, but hard to get your entry and catch the reversal as high as possible. Short said about the harmonic i posted, we're looking at another shark. The C point where fibs are, is usually 1.618 and sometimes extreme 2.0, post that the pattern is invalidated. Then once we get a clear reversal, we'll aim the 0.886 or the 1.13 for the XD.
  • #81,890
  • Oct 16, 2019 11:01pm Oct 16, 2019 11:01pm
Let's expect some very explosive move on USDJPY today.

It has been my observation that whenever a pair does 50% or less of its average daily range on a particular day, the next day usually sees it having a very explosive move.

Hence my expectation for USDJPY.

Let's be on guard and take advantage of the move.
  • #81,891
  • Oct 16, 2019 11:14pm Oct 16, 2019 11:14pm
Quoting GPetroff
{quote} Harmonics ain't that tricky, but hard to get your entry and catch the reversal as high as possible. Short said about the harmonic i posted, we're looking at another shark. The C point where fibs are, is usually 1.618 and sometimes extreme 2.0, post that the pattern is invalidated. Then once we get a clear reversal, we'll aim the 0.886 or the 1.13 for the XD.

You sound like Charlie Brown's teacher right there. I will learn though.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,892
  • Oct 16, 2019 11:14pm Oct 16, 2019 11:14pm
Resistance just formed but the level is "poorly defended"

Just about 703 net sell volume available there.

While the average H1 volume is 3752.

This simply means that the level will be easily invalidated once and if it assaulted.

Even the average M15 volume is around 915.

In chess (just like in war), you gain entrance through the weakest link. The resistance at 108.806 is a weak resistance. Bulls will run through it before the day ends.
  • #81,893
  • Oct 16, 2019 11:15pm Oct 16, 2019 11:15pm
Quoting pipcenturion
Let's expect some very explosive move on USDJPY today. It has been my observation that whenever a pair does 50% or less of its average daily range on a particular day, the next day usually sees it having a very explosive move. Hence my expectation for USDJPY. Let's be on guard and take advantage of the move.

From your keyboard to the pip Gawd's ears my friend.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,894
  • Oct 16, 2019 11:19pm Oct 16, 2019 11:19pm
keep an eye out for JPY from the newswire or whichever squawk service you use
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  • #81,895
  • Oct 16, 2019 11:23pm Oct 16, 2019 11:23pm
Quoting pipcenturion
Resistance just formed but the level is "poorly defended" Just about 703 net sell volume available there. While the average H1 volume is 3752. This simply means that the level will be easily invalidated once and if it assaulted. Even the average M15 volume is around 915. In chess (just like in war), you gain entrance through the weakest link. The resistance at 108.806 is a weak resistance. Bulls will run through it before the day ends.
That validates the completion of my bullish black swan theory. Thank yee sir.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,896
  • Oct 16, 2019 11:31pm Oct 16, 2019 11:31pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} That validates the completion of my bullish black swan theory. Thank yee sir.
Nice! H4 is almost overbought for this week. Once I see a H4 candle close higher than 3 standard deviations from VAP, I will start looking for opportunities to sell and hold the trade for the rest of this week (possibly into next week).
  • #81,897
  • Oct 17, 2019 2:21am Oct 17, 2019 2:21am
Total supply at that level has been mopped up.

The next time price comes to that level, it will trade through it.
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  • #81,898
  • Oct 17, 2019 2:34am Oct 17, 2019 2:34am
BUY limit at 108.737

Stop loss: 25 pips

Target : 109.19 or slightly beyond.
  • #81,899
  • Oct 17, 2019 4:19am Oct 17, 2019 4:19am
Quoting pipcenturion
BUY limit at 108.737 Stop loss: 25 pips Target : 109.19 or slightly beyond.
Triggred!!
  • #81,900
  • Oct 17, 2019 4:22am Oct 17, 2019 4:22am
Short 108.83 stop 109.83 target 105.83
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