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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #741
  • Oct 16, 2019 3:30am Oct 16, 2019 3:30am
Quoting DavidRP
Ok, let see >3 years successfull real traders. Are there edges in the fx market? Yes, there are. Are there obvious ? No, they aren't. And yep fx good traders are <1%. And yep, the odds are against you, but all bussiness have odds against you. Regards Btw, the charts are not mine. {image} {image} {image}
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} It's not a constant rate, come ooon! It's the average... one month you make +45, other month +5%, another one goes like -12% ...but the average goes to 15%
That's exactly my point.
Low the growth rate on short term -> low the recurrent risk -> low but solid growth on the long run!
Member
  • #742
  • Oct 16, 2019 5:42am Oct 16, 2019 5:42am
Quoting alphadude
{quote} have you tried discretionary trading? it maybe worth a try. human mind can adapt to changing market condition. robots can get lost sometimes. look at elon musk cars. some of them killed their owners. think about it, anybody can learn how to drive. even old ladies. Elon musk and his 10000 engineers are still strugling to develop a perfect robot.
Yes, this is a good point regarding discretionary trading.

I traded manually for many many years, and I still trade manually on the stock market and other markets where fundamentals play significant part of the strategy.
Overall I have mixed success with manual trading and the same is true for my automated systems.

But the thing is, I'm a bit bored by manual trading. You see, I want to look to the future, and not to the past. This is why I will never give up on the idea for complete automation.
Automation is the end of the line. It's the end game. And you know this as well! We all know it. The people who lead in the automation/robot wars are going to be the new kings of the world.

Elon Musk and his team will succeed with their autonomous cars eventually. (I have no doubts about this) And when they do, manual driving will become obsolete overnight.
  • #743
  • Edited 6:31am Oct 16, 2019 6:05am | Edited 6:31am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} Yes, this is a good point regarding discretionary trading. I traded manually for many many years, and I still trade manually on the stock market and other markets where fundamentals play significant part of the strategy. Overall I have mixed success with manual trading and the same is true for my automated systems. But the thing is, I'm a bit bored by manual trading. You see, I want to look to the future, and not to the past. This is why I will never give up on the idea for complete automation. Automation is the end of the line....
Hi, alpha! IMO, automation is not the end of the line. It's not the end of the game.
Trading robots are only executing your algorithms. You build a trading formula, system, strategy and the bot is just keep it going.
But the market is random. That means the market can change its behaviour whensoever. And your bot can't adapt. It's not supposed to.
It's only you, the experienced trader, the one who can feel the market behaviour ...experience, years of experinece is the final line, ultimate experience
Member
  • #744
  • Oct 16, 2019 6:32am Oct 16, 2019 6:32am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Hi, alpha! IMO, automation is not the end of the line. It's not the end of the game. Trading robots are only executing your algorithms. You build a trading formula, system, strategy and the bot is just keep it going. But the market is random. That means the market can change its behaviour whensoever. But your bot can't adapt. It's not supposed to. It's only you, the experienced trader, the one who can feel the market behaviour ...experience, years of experinece is the final line, ultimate experience
True. But you need to expand your horizons!

What you describe is only stage 1 of the automation game. This is the lowest level. And we are already super successful at this level. There is no more room for improvement or new discoveries at this level. So we have to move to the next.

On stage 2 you have to create algorithm that is capable of adaptation. A self-optimizing algorithm. We are almost done here. But there is still a lot of room for improvement.

And on stage 3 the human (the programmer) is almost completely out of the equation! This is Level 1 AI. At this level the algorithm can write it's own code, correct it's own mistakes and is capable of autonomous decisions (a bit of creativity).

Stage 4 is still mostly unknown. But at this level we are talking about some super smart AI, much smarter than it's original creator.
  • #745
  • Edited Oct 17, 2019 12:41am Oct 16, 2019 6:36am | Edited Oct 17, 2019 12:41am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} True. But you need to expand your horizons! What you describe is only stage 1 of the automation game. This is the lowest level. And we are already super successful at this level. There is no more room for improvement or new discoveries at this level. So we have to move to the next. On stage 2 you have to create algorithm that is capable of adaptation. A self-optimizing algorithm. We are almost done here. But there is still a lot of room for improvement. And on stage 3 the human (the programmer) is almost completely out of the equation! This...
If you sincerely believe that we will be able to create some super smart AI, much smarter than its original creator, ...what can I say... I do respect that ...I mean hope is a big thing in life, who am I to destroy hope ?!?
Member
  • #746
  • Oct 16, 2019 7:00am Oct 16, 2019 7:00am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Here's mine, Dave! 600% in 99 days (65 trades) weee! {image}
Looks familiar to me. Martingale would result in the same curve (constant growth for a while (false hope for the naive) and then booooom )
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #747
  • Oct 16, 2019 7:06am Oct 16, 2019 7:06am
Quoting josephcom
{quote} Looks familiar to me. Martingale would result in the same curve (constant growth for a while (false hope for the naive) and then booooom )
It's the only way you can annihilate the market's randomness ...for a while ...until the booom !
Member
  • #748
  • Oct 16, 2019 7:09am Oct 16, 2019 7:09am
2019/10/16
The day we learnt that markets and economies are random.

Meh
Necessity knows no law except to conquer
  • #749
  • Oct 16, 2019 7:13am Oct 16, 2019 7:13am
Quoting 3ndlessHope
2019/10/16 The day we learnt that markets and economies are random. Meh
Hey listen, smartie!
Can you prove here (empirically or theoretically) that the market is not random on the long run ?
Because if you can't do it beyond any reasonable doubt ...just STFU!
Member
  • #750
  • Oct 16, 2019 7:26am Oct 16, 2019 7:26am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Hey listen, smartie! Can you prove here (empirically or theoretically) that the market is not random on the long run ? Because if you can't do it beyond any reasonable doubt ...just STFU!
Did you know that ppl who insult over the internet are usually weak both psychically and mentally?

You claim markets and economies are random and _i_ should prove the opposite?
Anyways just by looking at the brexit mess, you would find the answer, smartie ( :
Necessity knows no law except to conquer
  • #758
  • Edited 1:40pm Oct 16, 2019 1:29pm | Edited 1:40pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} True. But you need to expand your horizons! What you describe is only stage 1 of the automation game. This is the lowest level. And we are already super successful at this level. There is no more room for improvement or new discoveries at this level. So we have to move to the next. On stage 2 you have to create algorithm that is capable of adaptation. A self-optimizing algorithm. We are almost done here. But there is still a lot of room for improvement. And on stage 3 the human (the programmer) is almost completely out of the equation! This...
At this moment in my trading career, I have stopped Algos temporarily; and went discretionary.

I am still developing manual strategies and testing them as we speak.

What I realize so far in my recent few months experience:

  1. Algos are NOT the end game
  2. Algos will not work forever. You need to babysit them all the time
  3. Algos creates a gap between you and the markets; as you start dealing with arrays of double[]; you start divorcing yourself from the market personality, the true action of buyers and sellers on the chart (or tape)
  4. Algos requires lots of work. Yes it can run automatically and make few bucks for a while; but they need constant review, improvements, R&R. Often it becomes too late to discover a strategy is dead.
  5. Manual trading always keeps you in touch; well aware of what's happening; and your intution gets in to save the day, or make big bucks
  6. Manual trading allows you to adapt quickly with just a quick look at the chart; you get in the moment
  7. Manual trading gets you into the zone quickly
  8. Manual trading is NOT tiresome as algo trading. All you need; is a mouse, a chart, and ability to draw S&R lines, Trend Lines, and an order entry
  9. Manual trading can be done for few hours a day (say 3 ~ 4 hours), and few days a week (say 3 days); and off you go
  10. Manual trading helps you keep it simple
  11. All you need as a manual trader; is a simple strategy; as simple as 123; train your brain on it, and have the market for breakfast.


In summary;
- amount of coding hours you have to do for algos; IMHO is not worth it. You are better off putting those hours on manual backtesting; and screen time.
- Algos requires you to develop few strategies to diversify the risk. Manual trading; all you need is one single strategy that works; and you can milk the markets left and right; morning and evening.

So far I am enjoying it. Howeve; I will have final say once I start trading 100% and making profit.

Profit is all that matters at the end of the day.

  • #759
  • Oct 16, 2019 2:12pm Oct 16, 2019 2:12pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} have you tried discretionary trading? it maybe worth a try. human mind can adapt to changing market condition. robots can get lost sometimes. look at elon musk cars. some of them killed their owners. think about it, anybody can learn how to drive. even old ladies. Elon musk and his 10000 engineers are still strugling to develop a perfect robot.
Dude, that's just part of the rudimentary beginning...

Quoting alphadude
{quote} At this moment in my trading career, I have stopped Algos temporarily; and went discretionary. I am still developing manual strategies and testing them as we speak. What I realize so far in my recent few months experience: Algos are NOT the end game Algos will not work forever. You need to babysit them all the time Algos creates a gap between you and the markets; as you start dealing with arrays of double[]; you start divorcing yourself from the market personality, the true action of buyers and sellers on the chart (or tape) Algos requires...
Do you really know what's A.I. and its near-future implications? It has nothing to do with retail trading "robots" or "Expert Advisers"...
Inserted Video

* Best explanation I know so far (even if it's from 2016), from a truly great intellectual. His logic is flawless, irrefutable.

And for some already current tangible examples, please also check the fourth episode of the Amazon Prime's documentary "This Giant Beast That is the Global Economy", called "A.I. is the Future. Will it Keep Us Around to Enjoy It?".

Institutional automation is only starting to get Schwifty:
https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/...l-intelligence
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...er-than-you-do
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ms-get-smarter
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...f-the-universe
  • #760
  • Oct 16, 2019 2:15pm Oct 16, 2019 2:15pm
Really good post Alpha and some great advice about manual trading.

You only need one winning trade a day to make a good living in this business.
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