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  • #1,160,661
  • Oct 15, 2019 2:34pm Oct 15, 2019 2:34pm
some red flags on Wednesday, but Thursday appears a lot more data-driven. Maybe we get some action then.
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  • #1,160,662
  • Oct 15, 2019 2:40pm Oct 15, 2019 2:40pm
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"Two! Two bounces off the 4HR48MA! HaHaHa!"

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It can't bounce forever....... ..eventually it will have to cross below.
  • #1,160,663
  • Oct 15, 2019 3:23pm Oct 15, 2019 3:23pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} I'm close to giving up any calls for upside in EURUSD. Seems like whatever happens, EURUSD just sells off - DXY down, EURUSD flat. DXY up - EURUSD dumps, GBPUSD is unchanged. Very weak currency! Good news, bad news - doesn't matter.
You seem to be a good trader noticing distortions in the market Yeah, I think we can pretty much expect this kind of thing(s)... till the FED party at the end of the month... This one might be the big one

Anyway, since you quoted me... I will use this also to update the chart... You can see that it follows (swings around) the merlin's line rather nicely...
BEFORE (posted yesterday): https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post12559701 or direct link to pic... https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...9&d=1571082425
NOW (below pic): or direct link to pic... https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...9&d=1571171006
Do compare them.... (and many before...) Crazy right? Is this real? Seems to be, for now

Quick switch between below links (as quoted above) to direct pics...:
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...9&d=1571082425
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...9&d=1571171006
Surreal, for now...
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Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #1,160,664
  • Oct 15, 2019 3:25pm Oct 15, 2019 3:25pm
on the daily cloud above. A valid question is - can price action take out the cloud resistance, and did that happen in the past?
Both answers are yes. Having said that, it can't kill the cloud entirely without doing a proper pullback first.

So my focus next few days will be on just that - either we try to pierce the cloud and then rollover or get
rejected outright.

Here's the EU chart for reference, this is cloud piercing in 2017.
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  • #1,160,665
  • Oct 15, 2019 3:28pm Oct 15, 2019 3:28pm
auricforecas, thanks for the review, appreciated. I'm keeping an open mind for what's next.
It's possible that we get a strong rejection soon, or maybe there's a bit more upside to EURUSD
next few weeks.

Generally speaking, November/December are strong for EURUSD.

However, Brexit still weighs heavily on EURUSD, but here's the catch. If there's some real progress made
next 4-10 days on that front, EURUSD might surprise to the upside, cause Brexit is one of the built-in reasons
that drags this EU lower (not to say it's the key driver, I know that key driver is always the yield curve, interest rates).

So let's see what happens, and make some money in the process!
  • #1,160,666
  • Oct 15, 2019 7:01pm Oct 15, 2019 7:01pm
Pretty sure that yesterday’s compression into 1.1 and sudden rejection of the price point means that we are going up this week
  • #1,160,667
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:27am Oct 16, 2019 12:27am
USD: Tactical Weakness Likely To Extend But Beneficiaries To Vary: 3 Themes To Watch - Citi

Citi discusses the USD tactical outlook and sees a scope for varied levels of weakness against other G10 and EMFX.
"(1) Fed rate cut coupled with US political tensions (Trump impeachment proceedings) - Tactical weakness in USD likely with JPY and Gold expected to be the key beneficiaries.
(2) Positive US – China trade developments - USD weakness likely against Commodity currencies (AUD, NZD & CAD) as well as Asia EM; Safe havens (JPY & Gold) to also likely weaken across the board (ex USD).
(3) Progress on Brexit - USD likely to weaken against EUR and GBP; safe haven CHF likely to decline against both EUR and GBP," Citi notes.
  • #1,160,668
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:27am Oct 16, 2019 12:27am

  1. BBG reports EU,UK negotiators said to be closing in on draft Brexit deal
  2. Report says optimism for a breakthrough before the end of week
  3. The report cites 2 EU officials; risk rallies sharply higher
  4. DE bund yields rally sharply, DE-US spreads tighten
  5. GBP/USD rallies near 1.2770, EUR/USD spikes up above 1.1040
  6. Daily cloud base, 55-DMA, 76.4 Fib of 1.1109-1.0879, Oct 11 high loom
  7. Break of those resistances are likely to put bulls back in charge

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  • #1,160,669
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:45am Oct 16, 2019 12:45am
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yes yes yes
  • #1,160,670
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:58am Oct 16, 2019 12:58am
Rangy week. Back to upper side?
...and my pivot S/R levels.
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  • #1,160,671
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:18am Oct 16, 2019 1:18am
some big levels on options today

EUR/USD

  1. 1.0900 1.8bn euro
  2. 1.0950 1.4bn
  3. 1.0980 951m
  4. 1.1025 1.0bn
  5. 1.1057 612m
  6. 1.1075 1.3bn
  7. 1.1125 729m
  8. 1.1160 672m


USD/JPY

  1. 107.50 879m USD
  2. 108.30 402m
  3. 108.75 450m
  4. 109.00 370m
  5. 109.75 550m
  6. 110.20 404m


GBP/USD

  1. 1.2650 GBP323m
  2. 1.2800 GBP394m


AUD/USD

  1. 0.6750 510m AUD
  2. 0.6800 632m


USD/CAD

  1. 1.3330 855m USD


NZD/USD

  1. 0.6270 372m NZD

  • #1,160,672
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:21am Oct 16, 2019 1:21am
Quoting asgcorp
some big levels on options today EUR/USD 1.0900 1.8bn euro 1.0950 1.4bn 1.0980 951m 1.1025 1.0bn 1.1057 612m 1.1075 1.3bn 1.1125 729m 1.1160 672m USD/JPY 107.50 879m USD 108.30 402m 108.75 450m 109.00 370m 109.75 550m 110.20 404m GBP/USD 1.2650 GBP323m 1.2800 GBP394m AUD/USD 0.6750 510m AUD 0.6800 632m USD/CAD 1.3330 855m USD NZD/USD 0.6270 372m NZD
stop loss hit hunting
  • #1,160,673
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:23am Oct 16, 2019 1:23am
likely shorting into close of this hour. TP 1000.
  • #1,160,674
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:24am Oct 16, 2019 1:24am
Breaking news spike. You can forget about technicals.
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  • #1,160,675
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:27am Oct 16, 2019 1:27am
more simple channel up eurusd with target now 1072/1108 as last leg up to correct ,1043 remain as the validation handle , 1037/23 may confirm but still may range up , breaks back & hold should end the life of bull. watching
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #1,160,676
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:30am Oct 16, 2019 1:30am
yeah forget technicals. In fact why not get a job at Taco Bell instead. Maybe trading is not for you.
  • #1,160,677
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:35am Oct 16, 2019 1:35am
price wants to test the cloud on daily now, 1100 very likely. let's see if there's any pullback to buy dips now.
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  • #1,160,678
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:37am Oct 16, 2019 1:37am
This was all technical.
See my last post. Massive buy volume at 1.10000 could not be ignored.
  • #1,160,679
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:39am Oct 16, 2019 1:39am
Quoting EvilEye
This was all technical. See my last post. Massive buy volume at 1.10000 could not be ignored.
forget it man. Obviously there are still many out there that think they can make money by reading public news headlines.
  • #1,160,680
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:45am Oct 16, 2019 1:45am
was technical from the start, just yesterday was a bit confusing that's all.
target for bulls is 1100 now. buy dips and you will make money.
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