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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #81,861
  • Oct 15, 2019 2:10pm Oct 15, 2019 2:10pm
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} 112 only if there is a complete trade deal but I think 109 will be the top for now I still think that by year end, it will go to 102

102 sounds like Impeachment numbers to me. Long way away from that.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,862
  • Oct 15, 2019 3:11pm Oct 15, 2019 3:11pm
A bit different approach than Amir, but the concept remains the same. Aiming at cypher/shark. If we break the 1.41 the cypher invalidates, then we look at 1.618 and possible extreme to 2.0.
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  • #81,863
  • Oct 15, 2019 3:49pm Oct 15, 2019 3:49pm
Quoting GPetroff
A bit different approach than Amir, but the concept remains the same. Aiming at cypher/shark. If we break the 1.41 the cypher invalidates, then we look at 1.618 and possible extreme to 2.0. {image}
Can you tell us what levels that fib is drawn off of? I have had my eye on the 109.10 all day although my TOS chart has a 109.3 (ghost) hit.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,864
  • Oct 15, 2019 3:55pm Oct 15, 2019 3:55pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Can you tell us what levels that fib is drawn off of? I have had my eye on the 109.10 all day although my TOS chart has a 109.3 (ghost) hit.
Fib levels are drawn for the C point, measured from the AB leg, aka top mid point of the left side of the harmonic. After we get confirmation on reversal, i will draw the fib levels for the XD extension(CD leg).
  • #81,865
  • Edited 5:49pm Oct 15, 2019 5:39pm | Edited 5:49pm
I don't think that we are done. Look at the Yen in July... and look at it today. It is almost IDENTICAL....
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,866
  • Edited 6:35pm Oct 15, 2019 6:21pm | Edited 6:35pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
I don't think that we are done. Look at the Yen in July... and look at it today. It is almost IDENTICAL.... {image}
The aqua line with 71.9% is where I see untested support. Price ought to go a bit deeper on this chart being reaching demand level.

It seems to translate to 108.93 for USDJPY but the current deviation extreme shows possibility for a H4 close higher than 108.96
  • #81,867
  • Oct 15, 2019 7:04pm Oct 15, 2019 7:04pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} The aqua line with 71.9% is where I see untested support. Price ought to go a bit deeper on this chart being reaching demand level. It seems to translate to 108.93 for USDJPY but the current deviation extreme shows possibility for a H4 close higher than 108.96
The 71.9 is professed to be a bank reversal level, it has proven itself before, so I am inclined to think it will prove itself again. Furthermore XAUEUR which has mirrored the yen and been U/J's doppelganger in past months appears poised for a double bottom before going up. Outlook on most channels is for it to go long. EUR/USD is also out of sync right now having popped a parabolic on the Brexit news. Once it settles in below the previous day's low I feel we too will be ready to finally move where we need to. When my main charts confuse me I like to look at others that play in the same sand pit for confirmation. Were it not for these I would think we are ready to dive now. 109.11 is the logical stop, but as illogical as this has been, not to mention it's penchant for stripping accounts, I have my eye set on that 109.3. It just doesn't make sense that my TOS went to that level perfectly.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,868
  • Oct 15, 2019 8:23pm Oct 15, 2019 8:23pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} The 71.9 is professed to be a bank reversal level, it has proven itself before, so I am inclined to think it will prove itself again. Furthermore XAUEUR which has mirrored the yen and been U/J's doppelganger in past months appears poised for a double bottom before going up. Outlook on most channels is for it to go long. EUR/USD is also out of sync right now having popped a parabolic on the Brexit news. Once it settles in below the previous day's low I feel we too will be ready to finally move where we need to. When my main charts confuse...
The banks and pro traders know exactly where the support/resistance levels are for the cumulative net volume done at any point in time.

Your TOS chart has foretold where price can get to, we only need to see a bearish candle as confirmation AFTER price hits the high shown on your TOS chart.

By the way, what is TOS?
  • #81,869
  • Oct 15, 2019 8:41pm Oct 15, 2019 8:41pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} The banks and pro traders know exactly where the support/resistance levels are for the cumulative net volume done at any point in time. Your TOS chart has foretold where price can get to, we only need to see a bearish candle as confirmation AFTER price hits the high shown on your TOS chart. By the way, what is TOS?

Thinkorswim = TOS
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,870
  • Oct 15, 2019 8:53pm Oct 15, 2019 8:53pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Thinkorswim = TOS

Okay, thanks so much sir.
  • #81,871
  • Oct 16, 2019 2:05am Oct 16, 2019 2:05am
Buy limit @ 108.66

Stop loss: 40 pips

Target : 109.23 or slightly higher
  • #81,872
  • Oct 16, 2019 2:19am Oct 16, 2019 2:19am
VAP has formed support at 108.784 (with corresponding MT4 support at 108.653).

Deviation for current day is 7 pips (so 42 pips is okay as stop loss).
3 standard deviations above VAP is currently at 109.041 (a H1 close above this level is when I will begin to expect a reversal).

Kindly note that all values are re - computed at the end of each hour.

Happy trading!
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  • #81,873
  • Oct 16, 2019 3:51am Oct 16, 2019 3:51am
hypothesis1
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At its best, change itself becomes a lifestyle.
  • #81,874
  • Oct 16, 2019 6:15am Oct 16, 2019 6:15am
USD has news today. Also the Chinese are right on queue. They are now questioning what they stand to gain purchasing agriculture. We will either complete the jump to 109 before the news or use it to get there IMO.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,875
  • Oct 16, 2019 7:05am Oct 16, 2019 7:05am
Aha! BREXIT. The same news that catapulted us through that resistance. Today is the deadline for some of the talks. Who thinks Boris will pull it off?
Anyone know when Parliament closes?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...dup-extension/
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,876
  • Oct 16, 2019 7:12am Oct 16, 2019 7:12am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Aha! BREXIT. The same news that catapulted us through that resistance. Today is the deadline for the talks this year. Who thinks Boris will pull it off? Anyone know when Parliament closes? https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...dup-extension/
Possible, but then he must seek extension. That's how i see it. The Backstop is too complicated to be solved for 2 weeks, while it took them years without any result.
  • #81,877
  • Oct 16, 2019 7:43am Oct 16, 2019 7:43am
retail sales data was bad, i think USD/JPY bears will come in after the stock market opens in NY

if the bears don't come, then i think they are hibernating already

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/16/ther...-products.html

Quote
U.S. and China’s “substantial” deal is already looking hazy, especially regarding China’s promise to hike its purchase of agricultural products, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

looks like more bad news for bulls
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #81,878
  • Oct 16, 2019 7:47am Oct 16, 2019 7:47am
Quoting MrPresident
retail sales data was bad, i think USD/JPY bears will come in after the stock market opens in NY if the bears don't come, then i think they are hibernating already
This report ain't that important, compared to the ISM or NFP. If Brexit deal happens we will get our spike.
  • #81,879
  • Oct 16, 2019 9:26am Oct 16, 2019 9:26am
Quoting GPetroff
{quote} Possible, but then he must seek extension. That's how i see it. The Backstop is too complicated to be solved for 2 weeks, while it took them years without any result.
I agree, but will "the market" like the extension?
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,880
  • Oct 16, 2019 9:32am Oct 16, 2019 9:32am
Dow approaching UNCH. S&P approaching UNCH. Looks like all bets are on Brexit and negative China news.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
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