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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #81,841
  • Oct 14, 2019 8:47am Oct 14, 2019 8:47am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
This appears headed for a spike up to rip stop losses, and engage some buyers before ripping down. Last night my TOS chart showed a spike RIGHT to the 109.3 level previously bounced off of. I prefer not to use indicators to trade as they create urgency, but with that said I keep them on some charts because many swear by them and I like to get in people's heads. Right now a fan favorite the Fisher Transformer is screaming oversold. All could be a trap, but be wary and watch that 109. I think it is an unrealized target that fizzled on lackluster news....
I think it is now entering a downtrend towards 105
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #81,842
  • Oct 14, 2019 8:50am Oct 14, 2019 8:50am
Quoting MrPresident
play "buy the dip game" until October 10/11, once the U.S/China trade talks are over and no progress is made, sell rallies heavily
“Buy the dip game” is over, time to sell the rallies as the trade deal optimism starts to fade

I think stop loss above the 109 level is safe for bears, target 105
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #81,843
  • Oct 14, 2019 9:35am Oct 14, 2019 9:35am
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} “Buy the dip game” is over, time to sell the rallies as the trade deal optimism starts to fade I think stop loss above the 109 level is safe for bears, target 105

Today is Columbus Day. Bonds are on holiday, and volume is down. A lot of room for wackyness. I have a buy in with a trailing 10p stop to prevent pocket ripping, and to hedge being that last week's shenanigans hurt my PL. TP open just in case they spike.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,844
  • Oct 14, 2019 10:43am Oct 14, 2019 10:43am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Today is Columbus Day. Bonds are on holiday, and volume is down. A lot of room for wackyness. I have a buy in with a trailing 10p stop to prevent pocket ripping, and to hedge being that last week's shenanigans hurt my PL. TP open just in case they spike.
yes, it is a holiday today in the US and Canada but shady brokers can spike the price in either direction to stop people out and steal money.
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #81,845
  • Oct 15, 2019 1:58am Oct 15, 2019 1:58am
If you are bearish, and in this trade already. I don't know a better teacher of patience. Yeesh.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,846
  • Oct 15, 2019 2:07am Oct 15, 2019 2:07am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} The low has been breached to the down side. As fore told by VAP. {image}
Hi pipcenturion, do you in what number would it bounce back for retracement? im kind of late to make an entrance
  • #81,847
  • Oct 15, 2019 2:15am Oct 15, 2019 2:15am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
If you are bearish, and in this trade already. I don't know a better teacher of patience. Yeesh.
Distribution takes time to complete the campaign.

Note the range within which USDJPY has been trading since it hit the 108.40 level on Friday.

Also consider this: why did JPY not weaken seriously by reason of the typhoon in Tokyo over the weekend? There ought to have been a gap up at market open. Why didn't we see this?

Why didn't we see a strong bullish continuation on Monday despite having such a seemingly "strongly bullish" candle last week?
  • #81,848
  • Oct 15, 2019 10:08am Oct 15, 2019 10:08am
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} “Buy the dip game” is over, time to sell the rallies as the trade deal optimism starts to fade I think stop loss above the 109 level is safe for bears, target 105
unexpected bull move lol
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #81,849
  • Oct 15, 2019 10:25am Oct 15, 2019 10:25am
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} unexpected bull move lol
i sold the spike, stop above 109, target open
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #81,850
  • Oct 15, 2019 10:46am Oct 15, 2019 10:46am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
This appears headed for a spike up to rip stop losses, and engage some buyers before ripping down. Last night my TOS chart showed a spike RIGHT to the 109.3 level previously bounced off of. I prefer not to use indicators to trade as they create urgency, but with that said I keep them on some charts because many swear by them and I like to get in people's heads. Right now a fan favorite the Fisher Transformer is screaming oversold. All could be a trap, but be wary and watch that 109. I think it is an unrealized target that fizzled on lackluster news....

The double top did NOT satisfy. I think someone over at TOS made a mistake on Sunday night and telegraphed this move upwards. Today is encouraging my "unrealized target" theory. They Yen is also on it's way to the -161% deviation off of that Strong Bearish Henry alert I mentioned. I am of the opinion that is where it will stop, and in turn bring the UJ to a halt. From there... 107... or 104. Let's GO!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,851
  • Oct 15, 2019 10:48am Oct 15, 2019 10:48am






https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post12561746
Attached Image
Patterns have an underlying mathematical structure.
  • #81,852
  • Oct 15, 2019 10:48am Oct 15, 2019 10:48am
A good indicator for UJ has been the DOW for me. The implied open on CNBC tends to be accurate, and when it tops out... UJ seems to follow.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,853
  • Oct 15, 2019 10:58am Oct 15, 2019 10:58am
Quoting Amir_Forex
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post12561746 {image}




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Patterns have an underlying mathematical structure.
  • #81,854
  • Oct 15, 2019 10:58am Oct 15, 2019 10:58am
Quoting Amir_Forex
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post12561746 {image}
waiting for your post Amir! i shorted that spike
  • #81,855
  • Oct 15, 2019 11:01am Oct 15, 2019 11:01am
Quoting Amir_Forex
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post12561746 {image}

Or just listen to this guy. TP is where Amir?
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,856
  • Oct 15, 2019 11:02am Oct 15, 2019 11:02am
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} This week it seemed every time a flag formed, price broke, hit 50+pips. No one selling, waiting, or loading up? WHo knows
........
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #81,857
  • Oct 15, 2019 11:04am Oct 15, 2019 11:04am
Take care bro inverse SHS on daily ON.
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  • #81,858
  • Oct 15, 2019 12:15pm Oct 15, 2019 12:15pm
Quoting b_hand
Take care bro inverse SHS on daily ON. {image}
I agree. 112 is possible, and we are in an inverted H/S. However I am of the opinion we need to consolidate at this level first which is why I feel the immediate target after today's 109 high will be 107.

Edit: Thank you for this though. Made me take a closer look. We previously bounced off 107 twice. We seem to have satisfied those two times on the right, however a shoulder appears needed to complete the pattern, so perhaps 107 is a bit ambitious.

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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,859
  • Oct 15, 2019 1:19pm Oct 15, 2019 1:19pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} I agree. 112 is possible, and we are in an inverted H/S. However I am of the opinion we need to consolidate at this level first which is why I feel the immediate target after today's 109 high will be 107. Edit: Thank you for this though. Made me take a closer look. We previously bounced off 107 twice. We seem to have satisfied those two times on the right, however a shoulder appears needed to complete the pattern, so perhaps 107 is a bit ambitious. {image}
112 only if there is a complete trade deal but I think 109 will be the top for now

I still think that by year end, it will go to 102
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #81,860
  • Oct 15, 2019 2:10pm Oct 15, 2019 2:10pm
Small dip.. then one last push during Asian market to trap bulls, then we are ripe for selling IMO. Closed my longs. SOOO glad I hedged.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
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