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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #681
  • Oct 13, 2019 8:26am Oct 13, 2019 8:26am
Quoting chrisdk2017
{quote} Where is your proof of randomness?
CADJPY (from 2016 on, 10-pip intervals)

100000011100110001010010001000110010001010001011110100111001011000001100001011110110000011000101110100010111100100000110010101101000010100010011010001010110110100110111100100100010000010001110111000110111111000011100111100111111001101111101110101000101100000011111111001010011101011100010101011011110000110101101001111111000101000111110011110001011100000011100110001010010001000110010001010001011110100111001011000001100001011110110000011000101110100010111100100000110010101101000010100010011010001010110110100110111100100100010000010001110111000110111111000011100111100111111001101111101110101000101100000011111111001010011101011100010101011011110000110101101001111111000101000111110011110001011011101101111110010010110011001101001111100011000100001001111101111011010010000001111100110101010010101010000001111110110011000011110010101011100010110001101110110000100101001110111101011001111001110000010010011010000000010101100100101100000010000111011110111010000111101111111011010010110000100110101111001111111011111000111110000101111001111111011001010101011110011100000000010010010011100100010101000010101000001101000010110001010001100111011101110110010110101101110010010001111000101011100100000111010000011110111010111001000111110101100100001100010001001000110100001111101110110011011001010001110011000100010110000101101000000000001011001000111110101110011011000111011001101001100011111111010010101111010001000110100000000001111111010010111000110111000000100000111110001110101101100100000010100000000000000010101001111101100011110001110010111010010100100001000011110011011100010101010111001101011110011110001100111001101100001101011010000001011100001101111010101111001100111001101000000000011001011110010110100001001001011111100111011100111111011100000110101110001111001011101111011001010101111000101101000011000011100011110100101010010110111010100000110001011000101100000001000101111110111001001100101001010011000001110110001110100001011101101110000000110100011100011010010110001000100010111010100011110010101010101111100010100101110001110100010010111101110101101111100101100000010110110001000001010101110000100110010010110001101110000001111101000100000011110000110110111111101000010110001111010111011110101001001100010011111000111010001111101100101100011000100001110100101110100010101100110000001010100101011011011110100111010000000100000011001101100000100011100101100001101111001111001111100100111011011111100101101110100101001001011111101111110110010101101101111011010111110011110100010101000110111100110100111110111

Now use a tool like this link (if you know how to use regular expressions) to work out for yourself. You can easily prove that the probability of moving 1 unit towards north is the same as 1 unit towards south (don't ask me how cause I'm not going to teach math here. Also don't ask me how I converted the chart to a bunch of 1s and 0s cause I'm not teaching programming either (it's so easy though))

Please stop this, we're not here to fight or argue all the time. Please stop...
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #682
  • Edited Oct 14, 2019 2:22am Oct 13, 2019 8:29am | Edited Oct 14, 2019 2:22am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} First, you have used the coin flip example and corresponding charting of results as presenting the same rests as forex market action. This is your view and your example. Not mine. You've made this false equivalence, not me. Therefore, you see them as the same, or at least similar. Second, based on your post above, you dont know or understand fundamental. If you did, you would see the market as you do. If the market doesn't react to a fundamental announcement in the way you expected, it must be randomness. It never occurred to you that you...
Second this... It really is unbelievable!!!

I give up, you guys are right it is all random, impossible to make money. Do us a favour, delete your profiles and go back to living your normal lives, why waste time here? I really don't get it... If that is the cemented belief of so many the best thing to do is surely leave.... The more you talk about it, and bring attention to the forum the more people will fall into this "trap" called forex. Start leaving and the forum will eventually die..

On a final note, at least a couple of guys(the thread starter and TudorIon are 2 of them) here seem to be good programmers that are frustrated because it seems impossible for them to code a profitable system with all their coding skills, then it must mean it is impossible to trade...
Lets put things into perspective here and compare trading to driving. Driving is something most humans can easily learn how to do... But coding a self driven car is not/was not an easy accomplishment... It took billions of dollars in investment and thousands of people working on the task.
Trading is something a lot more difficult than driving, otherwise everyone would be doing it, so to think that coding a system that works 100% of the time is something easy to do and that you magical coding skills should enable you to accomplish it easily if it was possible is just silly... The problem is you think you are too good (and you might be at coding) but reality is the task is a lot bigger than you realize.
  • #683
  • Oct 13, 2019 8:38am Oct 13, 2019 8:38am
Quoting papamax
{quote} Second this... It really is unbelievable!!! I give up, you guys are right it is all random, impossible to make money. Do us a favour, delete your profiles and go back to living your normal lives, why waste time here? I really don't get it... If that is the cemented belief of so many the best thing time do is surely leave.... The more you talk about it, and bring attention to the forum the more people will fall into this "trap" called forex. Start leaving and the forum will eventually die.. On a final note, at least a couple of guys(the thread...
It's all about my motto down there:

If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it (Abraham Lincoln)

It's not about programming; it's that if I cannot back test it for a couple of years, and do it objectively, how can I invest a good money in it? And if I'm not gonna invest a good money, what's the point of wasting all this time? And if I'm not sure enough to invest in it, it's not a good system then.

Makes sense?
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #684
  • Oct 13, 2019 8:39am Oct 13, 2019 8:39am
Quoting josephcom
{quote} CADJPY (from 2016 on, 10-pip intervals) 100000011100110001010010001000110010001010001011110100111001011000001100001011110110000011000101110100010111100100000110010101101000010100010011010001010110110100110111100100100010000010001110111000110111111000011100111100111111001101111101110101000101100000011111111001010011101011100010101011011110000110101101001111111000101000111110011110001011100000011100110001010010001000110010001010001011110100111001011000001100001011110110000011000101110100010111100100000110010101101000010100010011010001010110110100110111100100100010000010001110111000110111111000011100111100111111001101111101110101000101100000011111111001010011101011100010101011011110000110101101001111111000101000111110011110001011011101101111110010010110011001101001111100011000100001001111101111011010010000001111100110101010010101010000001111110110011000011110010101011100010110001101110110000100101001110111101011001111001110000010010011010000000010101100100101100000010000111011110111010000111101111111011010010110000100110101111001111111011111000111110000101111001111111011001010101011110011100000000010010010011100100010101000010101000001101000010110001010001100111011101110110010110101101110010010001111000101011100100000111010000011110111010111001000111110101100100001100010001001000110100001111101110110011011001010001110011000100010110000101101000000000001011001000111110101110011011000111011001101001100011111111010010101111010001000110100000000001111111010010111000110111000000100000111110001110101101100100000010100000000000000010101001111101100011110001110010111010010100100001000011110011011100010101010111001101011110011110001100111001101100001101011010000001011100001101111010101111001100111001101000000000011001011110010110100001001001011111100111011100111111011100000110101110001111001011101111011001010101111000101101000011000011100011110100101010010110111010100000110001011000101100000001000101111110111001001100101001010011000001110110001110100001011101101110000000110100011100011010010110001000100010111010100011110010101010101111100010100101110001110100010010111101110101101111100101100000010110110001000001010101110000100110010010110001101110000001111101000100000011110000110110111111101000010110001111010111011110101001001100010011111000111010001111101100101100011000100001110100101110100010101100110000001010100101011011011110100111010000000100000011001101100000100011100101100001101111001111001111100100111011011111100101101110100101001001011111101111110110010101101101111011010111110011110100010101000110111100110100111110111...
This is interesting because at the end you say "I'm not teaching programming (it's so easy though)"... That is something a lot of people may find impossible to learn, you put time into it, learned and it became easy... Have you ever considered that you might just be the guy saying programming is impossible to learn, but in relation to trading?

The problem for programmers and mathmaticians in the markets is they want to find something exact because it involves numbers but it has a lot more to do with human behavior than numbers. Psycologists who understand human behavior and emotions well have a much larger chance of success than maths people
  • #685
  • Oct 13, 2019 8:40am Oct 13, 2019 8:40am
Quoting josephcom
{quote} It's all about my motto down there: If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it (Abraham Lincoln) It's not about programming; it's that if I cannot back test it for a couple of years, and do it objectively, how can I invest a good money in it? And if I'm not gonna invest a good money, what's the point of wasting all this time? And if I'm not sure enough to invest in it, it's not a good system then. Makes sense?
Makes total sense.. Do you want me to show you the door?
  • #686
  • Oct 13, 2019 8:53am Oct 13, 2019 8:53am
To anyone still interested in fighting, check the following video:
This will bring the ultimate meltdown to this thread ; )

Inserted Video
  • #687
  • Oct 13, 2019 9:23am Oct 13, 2019 9:23am
Quoting RickM
{quote} No its not really, price is either positive or negative. On Friday, I sat trading AUDNZD for around three hours. I sold every positive rise and brought every negative fall in a grid formation over this period without a single loss. That was about 28 trades over that period on the M1 chart for around 90 Pips. Normally it moves away and the final basket may become a loss but this didn't occur on Friday. If you understand price mechanics and how price is coded to only swing from a neutral zone within the centre of the chart, you have a Bias...
Hi RickM,

How can I learned from you.I still a newbie in this trading world,only 1 and half year experience..Point me in the right direction.

Thank you.
  • #688
  • Oct 13, 2019 10:33am Oct 13, 2019 10:33am
Quoting josephcom
{quote} It's all about my motto down there: If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it (Abraham Lincoln) It's not about programming; it's that if I cannot back test it for a couple of years, and do it objectively, how can I invest a good money in it? And if I'm not gonna invest a good money, what's the point of wasting all this time? And if I'm not sure enough to invest in it, it's not a good system then. Makes sense?
Hi Joseph...
transfer chart data into computer programming language is not a proof for randomness...
...randomness is a mathematical and philosophical problem for at least last few thousand years...if you think that you have an plausible solution...i am ok with that...if you don't want to discuss it, i am ok with that...
...i hope you know that some very serious scientist has done experiments with "random throwing a dice"...and they failed to give any plausible proof for randomness...
you said.. "if you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it"...o really?
William Shakespeare wrote Hamlet...we know that..can you please "code" Hamlet, can you please "improve" Hamlet, can you please "measure" Hamlet?
Can you code/improve/measure Leonardo's Mona Lisa?
you said above ... " if I cannot back test it for a couple of years, and do it objectively, how can I invest a good money in it? And if I'm not gonna invest a good money, what's the point of wasting all this time? And if I'm not sure enough to invest in it, it's not a good system then. Makes sense?"....
...no it not makes sense...in other words, you want to know "in advance" that your investment will be 100% successful, than and only than you are ready to invest.
I don't know for such investment. If you know, please tell us here.
Forex is like real estate investment Joseph...it is all about good and attractive location, location, location...if you bought a house on a bad location, there are very small chances that you will sell it with profit...same is in forex...find a good "location" to enter a trade and profit will come back to you...
those "locations" are on the chart's....some people are able to find those "locations"....
  • #689
  • Oct 13, 2019 10:39am Oct 13, 2019 10:39am
Quoting josephcom
Another Experiment For Better Understanding Technical Analysis Fallacy Guys, I ask you to open your favourite charting tools (mine is Meta Trader) and place a horizontal line anywhere on your chart (preferably with your eyes closed! Yes, completely blindly). If you like you can place more than one line with some space between them. Then go back in the chart to see something interesting. Very often, you can see those random lines act as very good support & resistance. Sometimes it's so amazingly accurate that one would think there must be some sort...
There are still some 60+ coments that i didnīt read yet (maybe someone has asked this before)

What conclusion you get out of those chart?
  • #690
  • Oct 13, 2019 10:49am Oct 13, 2019 10:49am
Who would be looking to sell GBP at -5/-4 deviations is beyond me...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot - 10_13_2019 , 11_47_52 AM.png Size: 32 KB
  • #691
  • Oct 13, 2019 10:52am Oct 13, 2019 10:52am
Quoting papamax
{quote} ..... The problem for programmers and mathmaticians in the markets is they want to find something exact because it involves numbers but it has a lot more to do with human behavior than numbers. Psycologists who understand human behavior and emotions well have a much larger chance of success than maths people
This is completely false. Just like everyone else the "Psychologists" have 0% chance of success in the long run and the supporting evidence is everywhere.

On the other side, the most successful hedge fund in the world (Renaissance Technologies) is run entirely by scientists - mathematicians, physicist , statisticians, astronomers and programmers.

If you don't have proven, quantifiable, back tested and ideally automated strategy - then you simply don't have a strategy! Basically you are trading randomly on a mostly random market and you are hoping to get lucky. And this is simply gambling and will never work in the long run (more than 3 years).

Without proven quantifiable strategy you have 100% probability that you will lose your capital sooner or later. Even if you get lucky in the beginning, eventually your luck will run out.

So for the people without math and programming skills the best strategy is to invest in STOCKS/ETF's long term with diversified portfolio. Buy and hold, earn dividends....and so on. This is where the odds are in your favor and you can earn 10-15-20% per year.

Forex.....simply forget it! No chance for you to make anything here, especially in the current market environment . Sorry for the negative vibe but this is the naked truth.
  • #692
  • Oct 13, 2019 11:01am Oct 13, 2019 11:01am
Quoting Casiopea
{quote} There are still some 60+ coments that i didnīt read yet (maybe someone has asked this before) What conclusion you get out of those chart?
The random lines on a chart, bad example really,(not being anti here) but the phrase, "a stopped clock is right twice a day" the lines will run through somewhere, after all, the space is limited to the scale on where the price has been, now as to "when" price meets them is another thing, on a yearly chart, price may never go there again,

Above was my take, I'm no mathematician and cannot participate in previous posts but charts are something I've looked at many times, as us all trying to, or trading, you don't have to blindly create a line, a "random" (he who should not be named) figure corresponding with the current currency should do, the reason being the price has passed it and with enough curve fitting the outcome is probably the same, support and resistance however, is a more frequent point (if it can be called that) as opposed to the stopped clock method, if nothing else, a psychological embedded level
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #693
  • Oct 13, 2019 11:06am Oct 13, 2019 11:06am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} This is completely false. Just like everyone else the "Psychologists" have 0% chance of success in the long run and the supporting evidence is everywhere. On the other side, the most successful hedge fund in the world (Renaissance Technologies) is run entirely by scientists - mathematicians, physicist , statisticians, astronomers and programmers. If you don't have proven, quantifiable, back tested and ideally automated strategy - then you simply don't have a strategy! Basically...
You forgot to say, "just my opinion" not being anti and no offence but you stopped short of saying, " you're all fools"D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #694
  • Oct 13, 2019 11:18am Oct 13, 2019 11:18am
Quoting josephcom
{quote} It's all about my motto down there: If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it (Abraham Lincoln) It's not about programming; it's that if I cannot back test it for a couple of years, and do it objectively, how can I invest a good money in it? And if I'm not gonna invest a good money, what's the point of wasting all this time? And if I'm not sure enough to invest in it, it's not a good system then. Makes sense?
Let me save you lots of time and energy and lighten your confusion here... BACK TESTING PROVES NOTHING! Your 2 years back testing will only give you results, back test it again and will give you another and another and so on. Forex Trading is a business, and you know in business comes risk. It's about managing and taking risk. If you don't... just get a regular job. But in getting job, there's also risk of firing isn't it? Hmmn... every thing is risky, but you gotta take the chance and manage it, otherwise, you ain't go nowhere. Thoughts to ponder.
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #695
  • Oct 13, 2019 11:23am Oct 13, 2019 11:23am
Quoting detector
{quote} The random lines on a chart, bad example really,(not being anti here) but the phrase, "a stopped clock is right twice a day" the lines will run through somewhere, after all, the space is limited to the scale on where the price has been, now as to "when" price meets them is another thing, on a yearly chart, price may never go there again, Above was my take, I'm no mathematician and cannot participate in previous posts but charts are something I've looked at many times, as us all trying to, or trading, you don't have...

Maybe in 500 years of records that will happen!!
  • #696
  • Oct 13, 2019 11:30am Oct 13, 2019 11:30am
Quoting josephcom
{quote} CADJPY (from 2016 on, 10-pip intervals) (don't ask me how cause I'm not going to teach math here. Also don't ask me how I converted the chart to a bunch of 1s and 0s cause I'm not teaching programming either (it's so easy though)) Please stop this, we're not here to fight or argue all the time. Please stop...

Why anyone, then, shoul proof to you /teach or explain how to trade?
  • #697
  • Oct 13, 2019 11:32am Oct 13, 2019 11:32am
Quoting Casiopea
{quote} Maybe in 500 years of records that will happen!!
Casiopea, like it but the words "they were right" would be etched on our Grave Stone, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #698
  • Oct 13, 2019 11:51am Oct 13, 2019 11:51am
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 CO_NL_EW_NRP.ex4   26 KB | 484 downloads
  • #699
  • Oct 13, 2019 1:21pm Oct 13, 2019 1:21pm
"DD 31% at the beginning, mostly around 15%, high risk high reward".
Quoting josephcom
{quote} Oh my God! Guys, heads up! Finally we seem to have something here. Look at that growth curve That's what I'm taking about...
Quoting detector
{quote} Well done, knowing what I know that's very hard work,D
Quoting ZenNy
{quote} So true. Well done mate. Good stuff.
I didn't see it... What are the rest of its main stats? Like:

- Avg. Monthly %
- Avg. Win/Loss
- Longs/Shorts Won
- Avg. Trade Length
- Profit Factor
- Sharpe Ratio

Track Record and Trading Privileges verified? Which broker?
  • #700
  • Oct 13, 2019 4:30pm Oct 13, 2019 4:30pm
Falling in love is different than a mature love. Do you want to find reasons not to fall in love?

Market is a living being. You have to truly love it, to understand it.
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