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EURUSD

  • #1,160,561
  • Oct 12, 2019 1:17am Oct 12, 2019 1:17am
EUR USD EOW update and target for next week.

Daily/Weekly bullish close.

On daily chart we got the following:

 

  1. Price/RSI div - same as the last time - 1150 - 1400 - last time produced a 250 points move
  2. projecting same move to current low 0900 + 250 = 1150 - valid target for bulls next few weeks
  3. Bear TL broken on daily (see red lines)
  4. Overall, bullish outlook
  5. Elsewhere - retail is 90% NET short EURUSD - more gains likely
  6. November/December - strong seasonal period for EURUSD based on past 10 years of history

However, primary direction is still DOWN, but next 4-8 weeks I expect gains.
Conservative target for bulls is 1150, aggressive target is 1200.

Immediate target for next week is 1100. Recommended strategy is buying early next week with a tight stop loss (10-20),
near market open, unless there's a gap down (which is not likely at this stage).

Comments, questions, let me know. Have a nice weekend, traders!
If you like the analysis, feel free to upvote it!

PS: below is the daily price chart of EURUSD with my TA

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,160,562
  • Oct 12, 2019 2:07am Oct 12, 2019 2:07am
Quoting asgcorp
just in case someone is still struggling with the new reality (bullish EURUSD). DXY is maxed out and broke out of the rising wedge on H4/D1. Now I'm not saying it will die now in a straight-line. But it's pretty much dead for next 4-8 weeks. {image}
the issue is which is more dead usd or eur 😂
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,160,563
  • Oct 12, 2019 4:28am Oct 12, 2019 4:28am
Quoting Mitiblotch
I hate to make price forecasts, as I can follow price where it goes or wants to go each day. However, I must note that the D1 EMA200 around the 1.1200-1.1250 area is a valid target. From there shorts will set their sights on 1.0750 and possibly below.
You have a point my friend... but .. as Trump got some kinda trade deal done with china.. now he is free to engage with EUROPE where the Car tariff and Air Bus thing still to be sorted out and if he decides to pick EU as his next victim then forget 1250...price could revisit 1.05 considering already struggling manufacturing sector.... so bulls needs to be careful before becoming too optimistic... a hell lot of things there to be sorted before EU could become real bull again... I am assuming this current bull run to be run out gas around 1.1110-5 area.... I personally dont see EU recovering soon.. there are more downside left to come I guessbut then again considering the pressure from ECB and ongoing slowdown economic activity around EURO area if ..only if EU countries finally decides to implement fiscal stimulus to their economy then EU Bulls have a real chance to shake off the present bearish bias ..and could emerge as real Bull.... Till then bear it is..... I could be wrong but this is my understanding

Happy Trading
Trades technical moves enforced by fundamentals
  • #1,160,564
  • Oct 12, 2019 4:36am Oct 12, 2019 4:36am
40 bln USD worth of puts @ 1000 were written into the market and inter-bank writers received hefty premiums for the play.
Expiring on 08 nov 2019.

Now that PA cleared > 1000 price won't be trading below this level for next 4-8 weeks.
  • #1,160,565
  • Oct 12, 2019 5:11am Oct 12, 2019 5:11am
Quoting asgcorp
EUR USD EOW update and target for next week. Daily/Weekly bullish close. On daily chart we got the following: Price/RSI div - same as the last time - 1150 - 1400 - last time produced a 250 points move projecting same move to current low 0900 + 250 = 1150 - valid target for bulls next few weeks Bear TL broken on daily (see red lines) Overall, bullish outlook Elsewhere - retail is 90% NET short EURUSD - more gains likely November/December - strong seasonal period for EURUSD based on past 10 years of history However, primary direction is still DOWN,...
trump was talking yesterday after closed market,maybe gap up happend on opening market
  • #1,160,566
  • Oct 12, 2019 5:54am Oct 12, 2019 5:54am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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yes yes yes
  • #1,160,567
  • Oct 12, 2019 10:25am Oct 12, 2019 10:25am
Hi Moty,

Your charting seems to be very accurate. I have used those charts before with great success.
Thanks for sharing them here.
I see this pair going back South but I am not sure of the time frame. Whats your take on that?
Regards
  • #1,160,568
  • Oct 12, 2019 11:37pm Oct 12, 2019 11:37pm
Quoting pridolfx
{quote} trump was talking yesterday after closed market,maybe gap up happend on opening market
Notice that whenever trade war risk with china

1. Risk off == good news == eur drop
2. Risk on == bad news == eur rise

With this week good news , suspect eur might drop .
  • #1,160,569
  • Oct 13, 2019 2:14am Oct 13, 2019 2:14am
Quoting asgcorp
40 bln USD worth of puts @ 1000 were written into the market and inter-bank writers received hefty premiums for the play. Expiring on 08 nov 2019. Now that PA cleared > 1000 price won't be trading below this level for next 4-8 weeks.
and how sure is that for you?because every good news for usd can crash below 1.1000 or every bad news for euro,so all in god hands...
  • #1,160,570
  • Oct 13, 2019 2:26am Oct 13, 2019 2:26am
Quoting pridolfx
{quote} and how sure is that for you?because every good news for usd can crash below 1.1000 or every bad news for euro,so all in god hands...
Pretty sure about that. Not here to convert anybody.
  • #1,160,571
  • Oct 13, 2019 3:44am Oct 13, 2019 3:44am
Quoting fontu
checking week end as last few days movement not so exaggerated like gbp pains , a bottom forming ok in a bear set up still , daily close below 1.1056 may be ok to move next leg down towards 1. 0900 apparently. lets see , next week . {image} {image}
just bopen chart to see , ok to ready play the bear set up bigger ranges with little risk it may turn bull set up only after breaks 1.11088. ok test up 1.1077. breakout down will confirm at 1.1022/00 for 1.0940. . take care , fontu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #1,160,572
  • Oct 13, 2019 6:23am Oct 13, 2019 6:23am
last candle in 4 h chart is red . it can retrace 0.61 fibonancci level now . EUR still in bearish condition .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,160,573
  • Oct 13, 2019 6:29am Oct 13, 2019 6:29am
last H4 don't mean anything. profit taking before weekend.
  • #1,160,574
  • Oct 13, 2019 6:30am Oct 13, 2019 6:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} this crap has been posted here over a year. nato will fight nato.. its hard enough to keep a single country together in good times. throw 16 together during bad times and see what happens.. rubber bullets will not be rubber long. gold in shoes to pay border guards off is a must. same old shit stockpile food water bullets ect. break tl at 2885 and watch it fall.. there is nothing to catch it..
sad if it happens.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,160,575
  • Oct 13, 2019 8:30am Oct 13, 2019 8:30am
Quoting asgcorp
last H4 don't mean anything. profit taking before weekend.
Done going up Bro. 4HR inverted head and shoulder completed.Time to short.
Make it Green
  • #1,160,576
  • Oct 13, 2019 1:37pm Oct 13, 2019 1:37pm
1048 pre-market.
  • #1,160,577
  • Oct 13, 2019 3:13pm Oct 13, 2019 3:13pm
Quoting asgcorp
1048 pre-market.
Deal not done.EU and GU going down.
Make it Green
  • #1,160,578
  • Oct 13, 2019 4:49pm Oct 13, 2019 4:49pm
Here's my take on the EURUSD. On the H4 time frame, price action is operating at the 78.6 Fib retracement zone of the downleg from 1.11088 to 1.08780. Technically, we can expect a turnaround at the level or a slowdown of bullish momentum. Looking left, we can see that price action is located near the high of the massive bullish candlestick printed on August 12, 2019 and the market has printed topping candlesticks in the area on Friday, with a bearish print at the close of the session.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,160,579
  • Oct 14, 2019 12:19am Oct 14, 2019 12:19am
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  • #1,160,580
  • Edited 2:01am Oct 14, 2019 1:11am | Edited 2:01am
same as before , bull target goes to 1.1074 daily close wise & 1.1127 weekly close . failure any initiate tanking below previous low , though this leg up points to 1.1250 target as usual but not think so yet , as one leg try up to down continue probable as up & down not continue the same again & again ,may go for next level. close below 1.09655 bull may be over. take care
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 46 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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