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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #601
  • Oct 11, 2019 9:52pm Oct 11, 2019 9:52pm
Quoting Divergence
was bored thought id drop a hint. want to succeed step 1 leave forex step 2 trade the e mini nasdaq futures step 3 123s good luck

The old line Future’s is better than Forex.
When you require luck to be profitable trading any market, you better hope your blood pressure is under control.
I prefer to trade a mechanical system on a market that requires no luck.

I will stick with Forex but thanks for your advice.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #602
  • Oct 11, 2019 11:19pm Oct 11, 2019 11:19pm
Quoting Divergence
was bored thought id drop a hint. want to succeed step 1 leave forex step 2 trade the e mini nasdaq futures step 3 123s good luck
But we like FORRRREX!
  • #603
  • Oct 11, 2019 11:29pm Oct 11, 2019 11:29pm
Quoting user954
{quote} two relevant sayings come to mind: 1) a dumb loser who endlessly searches for a trading system can never succeed because even when one hits him in the head, he will keep looking for the new shiny thing -- if you understood anything about trading systems, you'd realize there is nothing to sell. The trades are posted live, it won't make a difference to the results if anyone took the trade a few minutes around the time 2) look at that face - its one even a mother cannot like now let me delete my first post lest something useful is contributed...
I Lol'ed...l used to worked where recognizing person facial expression/look to make money.about how to treat them etc [or in short service industry].And i'm not gonna lie when i see his face and the thing he wrote on first post.It's like saying..i'm very good at math,top of the line programmer.so if i can't make it this mean everybody just pretending.

Just look at this thing with a simple MA.Deep down there you know that you can make something out of it.but when you start wanting to make it fix [1:1 RR or whatever it is] to make your life easier/making money while you sleep, then you're at lost.
Because a few in this game manage to survive.and even much-much less manage to find a fix.
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Don't mind me.. i'm crazy
  • #604
  • Oct 12, 2019 1:29am Oct 12, 2019 1:29am
https://m.facebook.com/askkyleaberg/

this guy doesnt lose. king of forex.
  • #605
  • Oct 12, 2019 1:32am Oct 12, 2019 1:32am
Quoting purevenom
{quote} I Lol'ed...l used to worked where recognizing person facial expression/look to make money.about how to treat them etc [or in short service industry].And i'm not gonna lie when i see his face and the thing he wrote on first post.It's like saying..i'm very good at math,top of the line programmer.so if i can't make it this mean everybody just pretending. Just look at this thing with a simple MA.Deep down there you know that you can make something out of it.but when you start wanting to make it fix [1:1 RR or whatever it is] to make your life...
Yeah, of course it looks awesome in hindsight/retrospective, after the fact ¬¬
  • #606
  • Oct 12, 2019 4:05am Oct 12, 2019 4:05am
Quoting Viktory
{quote} Yeah, of course it looks awesome in hindsight/retrospective, after the fact ¬¬
I sell goods for a living...profit only can be seen after the fact.we might calculate cost of production etc.but we don't know how many we can sell.we look at history, like a chart and expecting pattern to repeat it self..like 'we sell 10 pcs today.we might sell 10 tomorrow'.but we can end up selling only 3 or even nothing, and goods expire. If you go to a market.most of them are just floating too survive too.because they don't do leverage so they float longer.
Would you see your self selling fish in the market? bargaining the price from the fisherman/wholesaler then trying to make a profit from consumer which in traditional market they too will bargain for a lower price or they'll go to someone else.and you try your best expecting nothing will go to waste in the end.and sometimes we risk more from we expect to gain
♦ Maybe you're not capable of trading. It's YOU who's caused the problem.
There he got his answer
People perceive things differently [for that simple chart]. some will think..ok i need a fix entry rule and where i'm going to put stop and target.some just being opportunist.enter when seeing rejection in those cluster exit the trade as soon as possible when it go against them and keep it as long a possible when it goes in their favor.scalp when it keep bouncing in the same zone. i'm not by any mean successful, i'm floating to survive.but in the end of month, i still see green in that % gain.
And speaking of chart ... first time for me is local stock trading.i use no chart. didn't know it exist. just browsing the daily newspaper for stock price and start comparing it in my head.pick what i like and call my broker.and somehow i make some money every month.maybe you're right..i'm just lucky.
Don't mind me.. i'm crazy
  • #607
  • Edited 4:41am Oct 12, 2019 4:27am | Edited 4:41am
Quoting user954
{quote} two relevant sayings come to mind: 1) a dumb loser who endlessly searches for a trading system can never succeed because even when one hits him in the head, he will keep looking for the new shiny thing -- if you understood anything about trading systems, you'd realize there is nothing to sell. The trades are posted live, it won't make a difference to the results if anyone took the trade a few minutes around the time 2) look at that face - its one even a mother cannot like now let me delete my first post lest something useful is contributed...
Actually I don't believe my face is relevant to trading. Even if it is, I am happy with my look and one more thing: my mother loves me so much

Second, if you're happy with your magical system, why are you wasting your time here calling me names? Why is your account a "demo" one? Why don't you launch your secrete weapon and fill out your bank account like there's no tomorrow?!

Like a member of this thread said, please shut the door on your way out. Thank you
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #608
  • Oct 12, 2019 4:37am Oct 12, 2019 4:37am
Quoting Viktory
{quote} Yeah, of course it looks awesome in hindsight/retrospective, after the fact ¬¬
Your short answer is the abstraction of all I need to explain to these people. Thnx

Things would be funny if we could see a couple of past pages of that chart. He just sees the parts he likes most.

It's like, for example "hammer" candle stick. When you see tops/buttons you can see a lot of them actually began with a hammer. However, what these people fail to see is "a lot of hammers" along the way.
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #609
  • Oct 12, 2019 4:40am Oct 12, 2019 4:40am
Quoting purevenom
{quote} I sell goods for a living...profit only can be seen after the fact.we might calculate cost of production etc.but we don't know how many we can sell.we look at history, like a chart and expecting pattern to repeat it self..like 'we sell 10 pcs today.we might sell 10 tomorrow'.but we can end up selling only 3 or even nothing, and goods expire. If you go to a market.most of them are just floating too survive too.because they don't do leverage so they float longer. Would you see your self selling fish in the market? bargaining the price from...
Why on earth, don't you show us your results instead of writing a novel as a post? You either show us your work or stop telling stories
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #610
  • Oct 12, 2019 4:59am Oct 12, 2019 4:59am
Quoting 8tango
The secret of a Forex long term success is only MONEY MANAGEMENT. Don't take a trade if you don't have a ratio Risk/Reward of 1:2 For instance: Win 40% of the time and a 1:2 risk reward ratio on 20 trades 12 losses at $100 loss per trade and 8 wins at $200 profit per trade. Net result: +$400 (net profit) You can be a bad trader (win only 40% of trades) but if you follow this ratio you will be a long-term winner.
Hardly.
Statistically you can't win 40% with RR 1:2. Your long run winning rate will be only 33%.
Because the market is random (for PA, TA)
In a random market:
- if RR 1:1, statistically the TP or SL will be hit in 50% of cases;
- if RR 1:2, statistically the TP will be hit in 33% of cases - and the SL in 66% of cases...

So if 33 trades will make +$66, 66 trades will make -$66.
Same boring 50-50 tie game !
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  • #611
  • Oct 12, 2019 6:07am Oct 12, 2019 6:07am
If there were the "Oscar" award in forex, you were one of the favorite candidates.

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POW!
  • #612
  • Oct 12, 2019 6:08am Oct 12, 2019 6:08am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Hardly. Statistically you can't win 40% with RR 1:2. Your long run winning rate will be only 33%. Because the market is random (for PA, TA) In a random market: - if RR 1:1, statistically the TP or SL will be hit in 50% of cases; - if RR 1:2, statistically the TP will be hit in 33% of cases - and the SL in 66% of cases... So if 33 trades will make +$66, 66 trades will make -$66. Same boring 50-50 tie game ! {image}
Yes, that's what I always say. There's always a compromise between Win Rate and RR. This is a common fallacy that a lot of people can't understand.
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #613
  • Oct 12, 2019 6:11am Oct 12, 2019 6:11am
Quoting fxprimate
If there were the "Oscar" award in forex, you were one of the favorite candidates. {image}
Oscar for idiots Can you show us how different you are from a typical idiot? And would you tell us why you think I am idiot?
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #614
  • Oct 12, 2019 6:20am Oct 12, 2019 6:20am
Quoting josephcom
{quote} Yes, that's what I always say. There's always a compromise between Win Rate and RR. This is a common fallacy that a lot of people can't understand.
Yeah, common rookie fallacy. Technically, it's impossible to make a distruption of the 50-50 balance.
The only chance for a reasonable trading is to find and exploit a recurrent chart pattern.
Position management is an illusion on long term. Martingale is the most funniest trick
Because you can bullshit people for years posing in a winner
Member
  • #615
  • Oct 12, 2019 10:45am Oct 12, 2019 10:45am
Quoting papamax
{quote} What system? Who calls something with 80% DD and carrying losses for over 1 yr a system?
Mr Clever (User594) above.. BUT he deleted his post out of embarrassment.. He should delete his second post too.. "Jokerman"
  • #616
  • Edited 11:37am Oct 12, 2019 10:52am | Edited 11:37am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Hardly. Statistically you can't win 40% with RR 1:2. Your long run winning rate will be only 33%. Because the market is random (for PA, TA) In a random market: - if RR 1:1, statistically the TP or SL will be hit in 50% of cases; - if RR 1:2, statistically the TP will be hit in 33% of cases - and the SL in 66% of cases... So if 33 trades will make +$66, 66 trades will make -$66. Same boring 50-50 tie game ! {image}
All would be very true on a fully random market... Except this is not a fully random market and you CAN have an edge, you CAN
find predictable patterns because there are inefficiencies and non-random aspects to the markets that one can take advantage off..
If they were fully random nobody would be able to profit from it, neither banks, nor pension funds, nor governments etc.
PS: Tudor, you know Nicola well, so you should know that too.
  • #617
  • Oct 12, 2019 10:53am Oct 12, 2019 10:53am
Bit confused. If it’s your view it’s not possible to be profitable for 3 years... Why haven’t you all just bounced? I mean, if you’ve found out the uncompromising truth, why do you waste your time here?

It’s non-sensical how you can be so resigned to a view, yet argue it with people who will never agree with you.

I’d honestly say peace out if you’ve got no faith in FX trading... Or have I missed something?
  • #618
  • Oct 12, 2019 10:59am Oct 12, 2019 10:59am
Quoting letsride
Bit confused. If it’s your view it’s not possible to be profitable for 3 years... Why haven’t you all just bounced? I mean, if you’ve found out the uncompromising truth, why do you waste your time here? It’s non-sensical how you can be so resigned to a view, yet argue it with people who will never agree with you. I’d honestly say peace out if you’ve got no faith in FX trading... Or have I missed something?
That's precisely the reason why they can't make it work... They don't bounce because they are worried about missing out on something (same reason why they jump on a trade they shouldn't because they are worried about missing the move, they don't take profit where they should worried about missing on extra move and same reason why they move their stops worried about missing out on the market turn in their direction that is about to happen)....
  • #619
  • Oct 12, 2019 11:14am Oct 12, 2019 11:14am
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} Is that so? From a newbie here you sound like you know a lot????? Some systems are solid (based on few things). These make profit. Then people develop them. Then people go fully automated (figure of speech maybe ) I know few guys, including myself, nice consistent profits. Nowadays less profit, much less loss. Overall can't complain. Took me about 5-6 years..... Yeah.


yes I believe avg time to start making profit is 4-6 years in general
  • #620
  • Oct 12, 2019 11:20am Oct 12, 2019 11:20am
Quoting GEfx
Jeesh, you guys haven't figured out that recent GPB moves have been caused by fundamentals? You really dont get that? Unbelievable...

if it works for you but your entries will always be late but main thing is making money. So if I were to tell you gj is going to 238.. I can’t for tell anything fundamental wise because the event hasn’t happened. However charts tell the story before the event happens. If you have time watch the news and the correlating chart and see which moves first. It’s an algorithm that makes you chase every opening candle on every time frame. But again if you are making money that’s all there is to it. Cheers. *not meant to sound disrespectful by the way. Just sharing some knowledge. Cya
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