USD/JPY Discussion

You and I have a love hate relationship lol

108.437 on H1 & H4, I'll wait for the next candle to commit since it's Friday

Numbers out at 8:30 EST. We will either finally sell, or pixie some bear accounts. Yen still has a further low of .009245 to hit for symmetry.

If it double tops I think it will be on the 15m chart. 830 import prices report (amidst a trade war). Fundamental reason to reverse this shot up.

Edit. I may stand corrected. Little down movement, and NY open coming up.

price finally got here.

Let's enjoy the bear party.

The sell has been confirmed by my Volume Adjusted Price (VAP) in the just concluded hour.

You can now load the boat if you wish!

i think now 109 is where it will go

your boat can sink

I don't think so sir.

I this one is gonna sell real hard!

I worked on this volume technique for over three years.

All the best guys and have a nice weekend! The Chinese won't give in to the D Liar demands, they won't play his games maybe small concessions for goodwill, so shorters, seat belts off, no worries! LOL!

Sell done 108.56

We finally hit that previous low, however something feels off on this one. The 4hr closed below the 61.8.



Also the EURUSD aka USDJPY's evil twin is moving up into an area of resistance. Unless they are hand in hand today when EU hits that cloud and retraces we could very well be on our way to 109 today. It would be a boon for the bank to rip all these shorts through their stop losses, and there is presidence on the Yen.

If we tap 109 things will still be ok. There is a possibility as it would be a good stop search to shake the sellers stops, and it will be a flash hit IMO. Rough waters yes, but no Bermuda triangle.

We are going to need to talk about this VAP technique of yours. You can't come out of the kitchen after three hours of cooking and tell people you have a bomb ass recipe and not at least bring a bowl sir. It just isn't right lol

Funny

Target for this sell is 104.75

Next week is going to be bearish.

13:59 News Bot: US-China partial trade deal, as of Thursday evening, included a pact on currency and a delay on tariffs due for October 15th, according to sources. Queue the bad news from the chinese side...

US/CHINA TRADE: US President Trump announced the US and China have come to a “substantial” Phase one trade deal, which might take up to five weeks to be signed. Trump announced a “deal” on intellectual property, financial services, and big agricultural purchases (for which China is said to purchase between USD 40bln-50bln of Ags.); adding that the sides had “agreed” on FX issues and made “progress” on tech transfers. Negotiations on Phase two are said to begin after Phase one is signed. The Trump administration is to delay the implementation of the October 15th tariffs, but has not yet made a decision on the December tariffs. Trump said US is working on enforcement currently, there is a provision for such, adding that “we are close to ending the trade war”. In regard to a signing, Trump said it could happen with Chinese President Xi at the APEC meeting in Chile next month, but caveated that he doesn’t think the deal will fall apart over the next few weeks, but a possibility it would (it is hard to infer whether this is typical give and take Trump commentary, or an ominous indication). Elsewhere under the hood, there was no decisions on the Huawei issue this time around – that will be included in the next phase; some IP aspects are said to be agreed in Phase two also; Hong Kong was discussed, where Trump played down the issue, saying things would sort themselves out in the region; Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the US would be evaluating whether to rescind the currency manipulation designation on China. Trump after said that the Fed should still cut rates despite the deal, with the situation “more important” than the Federal Reserve. CNN reported that the Chinese delegation had invited USTR Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and their teams for further talks in China ahead of the APEC summit in Chile next month.

that means there is not much to this "deal" and the tariffs are still on, which is bad for stocks and USD/JPY bulls

notice that there wasn't a rally after the press conference and 108.5 is still a strong resistance level

I agree absolutely. It was a bull trap. A few got caught in it because there was a slight uptick as if this level would form a bullish flag as they attempted to manipulate the news even more by having 45 get on the microphone and have a press conference, but even he tripped on his words and in the end divulged that we were not really any further than when we started. Fundamentally "the market" expected the tariffs to not go into effect as it is used to this game of chicken. Looks like centurion's prediction of rapid down movement may come to fruition next week. I believe it was Coggs who told us to look to last year, and the year before. Last week was up... next will be down. Technically my 4hr chart shows the downward trend (fig 1) being pierced three times with this being the third so it appears we will have another test to form the other side of this inverted head and shoulders after which 109 may finally be possible via a Fed announcement. On the 4hr chart 108.5 was tested this week three times, much as it was last week, however this attempt was slightly stronger because the pins pierced it. This could be a very good week for bears. Lots of honey and picnic baskets with rest stops at 108 and 107.5 before 107 is touched (fig 2). 107.5 has a previous bull trap which may be attempted again, and I will watch. The daily though still shows promise up above, so I will be looking for bear traps at the 107 level unless they gap up at the open on Sunday night which I REALLY hope they do as it would get 109 out of the way. A significant close (4hr candle, or daily) below 107 will signal BOHICA down to 104, but I don't see that until we finish this current "drawing" and make a fourth touch. Currently it lacks symmetry. With that said... Pipcenturion, who appears to be a voodoo priest from the Himalayas has predicted a 104.75. He has more experience than I, so I am not discounting it.

This is what I see, but I welcome anyone who's opinion differs as I am fallible as well as relatively new to this game. Please feel free to discuss. While my diction may be strong, I am somewhat malleable.

Fig 1
Fig 2

1hr chart for reference.