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Successful Trading & Determining the Probability of a Trading System 10 replies

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Attachments: has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?
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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

Quoting ionone
{quote} yes it states that they LOSE money but how many stay barely afloat ? that's the big of the bulk. Most traders don't have a good strategy, so it's 50/50 and they don't lose a lot so they don't fall into that "loser" category... how many makes 10% a month is what i'm interested in
Hi. When I start trading my initial plan was to make +33% per month. (edited: +33% as an average growth rate)
When you can see crazy TEs on FF making 500% a month, I thought 33% is not too much of a greedy plan
That's an easy doubling account in 3 months plan:
- start with $1000
- double it in 3 months -> 2000
- another double in the next 3 months (6) -> 4000
- 8000 after 9 months form the beginning;
- 16K after 12 months (that makes it 1600% per year)
- 32K after 15 moths;
- 64K after 18 months;
- 128K/21m ...256K/24m ...512K/27m ...1 million in 30 months, easy! Ta-daaa!
All you have to do is to make 33% every month and you're a millionaire in 30 months. ...sounds reasonable, huh?

But I was forcing my strategy and that greedy take got me at margin call in 3 months.
Then I lowed to +25%, got me in the same place ...now is working for 2 years undisturbed (no Black Swan) but I have never asked it for more than 15% per month... I guess we'll fkn see about it...

So you're interested in people who can make 10% per month? There!
But how do you think that can really help you? And how is that relevant without the Long Run factor?!?
................................
The trouble is the Time and the Black Swans (unexpected, untypically events for your strategy which can bust your ass right quick)
The solution is to accept small growth rate on short term in order to compensate the occasional drawdowns so you may have a slow but solid growth on the long run.

(low the growth rate on short term -> low the recurrent risk -> low but solid growth on the long run)
Member
You are not going to make a profit every month trading. That is if you do it right. You can push your risk to the right side but that's not an advisable strategy. People don't like to hear this and prefer believing in fantasy. You wont make money every month, get this straight. Your performance will go up and down, sometimes you feel like a God and other times like crap. It took me longer to learn to feel like crap than to learn how the market work. That's why I always advice this game is not for everyone.
When you see it, BET big.
Quoting Rennaissance
You are not going to make a profit every month trading. That is if you do it right. You can push your risk to the right side but that's not an advisable strategy. People don't like to hear this and prefer believing in fantasy. You wont make money every month, get this straight. Your performance will go up and down, sometimes you feel like a God and other times like crap. It took me longer to learn to feel like crap than to learn how the market work. That's why I always advice this game is not for everyone.
It's not a constant rate, come ooon! It's the average... one month you make +45, other month +5%, another one goes like -12%
...but the average goes to 15%
Forget it, you miss the point anyway..
Member
Quoting Rennaissance
You are not going to make a profit every month trading. That is if you do it right. You wont make money every month, get this straight.
Why not?
Necessity knows no law except to conquer
And at #548 I didn't meant constant distruption as a target value to achive, it's the result as an average...
Member
i think one of the profitable system in forex factory is beat the market.im still testing it,so far good.

you can find it here:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=938423
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} It's not a constant rate, come ooon! It's the average... one month you make +45, other month +5%, another one goes like -12% ...but the average goes to 15% Forget it, you miss the point anyway..
I get you now, sorry for the misunderstanding.
When you see it, BET big.
Quoting 5aztv88
i think one of the profitable system in forex factory is beat the market.im still testing it,so far good. you can find it here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=938423
nope. will quit forex if that thread is not going commercialized in the next 6months to one year.
Quoting Trubadur
There are no trading systems that work forever. Every system sooner or later breaks down and goes into drawdown. Some are recovering from this, some are not.
Is that so?
From a newbie here you sound like you know a lot?????

Some systems are solid (based on few things).
These make profit.
Then people develop them.
Then people go fully automated (figure of speech maybe )

I know few guys, including myself, nice consistent profits. Nowadays less profit, much less loss.

Overall can't complain.
Took me about 5-6 years..... Yeah.
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
See successful traders do exist! Here is one of the many retail forex trading millionaires I am sure

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...x-YouTube.html

No doubt this can't be fake it's from the DailyMail.
Quoting Mingary
See successful traders do exist! Here is one of the many retail forex trading millionaires I am sure https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...x-YouTube.html No doubt this can't be fake it's from the DailyMail.
Dude is low-key bro.

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Quoting josephcom
For over 3 years, I've been trying to find a long-term successful strategy in Forex, but in vain! When I say 3 years I am talking about something like 5 to 10 hours a day!!! In a way, I've wasted 3 years of my dear life that God has given to me.
Maybe not wasted. You now know a lot of things that do not work. Like indicators. In my opinion, indicators do not work consistently enough to be reliable. The reason they do not work consistently enough is not only because they time lag the price action, but also because the market spends at least half its time producing random noise.

However, if the market is always random noise, there is no possibility of any trading system ever working.

But market is not always random - at least this is what it seems to me. At times the madness of crowds causes large moves to occur. Perhaps you can study the signs and conditions that precede such moves? Maybe this would be helpful.

Just my opinions. Good luck.
Quoting Mingary
See successful traders do exist! Here is one of the many retail forex trading millionaires I am sure https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...x-YouTube.html No doubt this can't be fake it's from the DailyMail.
I believe the daily mail have done 4 of these stories the first guy went to jail for fraud the second guy went to jail for fraud and his Lamborghini turned out to be a ford focus with a fake exterior the third guy borrowed some money off a friend didn't pay it back and then run his friend over with a car when he asked for his money back face to face I wonder how things will work out for the fourth guy
Quoting Mingary
See successful traders do exist! Here is one of the many retail forex trading millionaires I am sure https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...x-YouTube.html No doubt this can't be fake it's from the DailyMail.
LUL
Quoting mrhelpful
{quote} Maybe not wasted. You now know a lot of things that do not work. Like indicators. In my opinion, indicators do not work consistently enough to be reliable. The reason they do not work consistently enough is not only because they time lag the price action, but also because the market spends at least half its time producing random noise. However, if the market is always random noise, there is no possibility of any trading system ever working. But market is not always random - at least this is what it seems to me. At times the madness of crowds...
You perfectly nailed it!

... although, either madness of big crowds (greed and fear), or strong fundamental moves from the big players
Quoting Ross88
{quote} I believe the daily mail have done 4 of these stories the first guy went to jail for fraud the second guy went to jail for fraud and his Lamborghini turned out to be a ford focus with a fake exterior the third guy borrowed some money off a friend didn't pay it back and then run his friend over with a car when he asked for his money back face to face I wonder how things will work out for the fourth guy
dailymail is full of BS.

they do these fake stories, to get click bait.

they carefully chosen the words in that article.
Quoting alphadude
{quote} dailymail is full of BS. they do these fake stories, to get click bait. they carefully chosen the words in that article.
I like your awareness
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
The secret of a Forex long term success is only MONEY MANAGEMENT.

Don't take a trade if you don't have a ratio Risk/Reward of 1:2

For instance:

Win 40% of the time and a 1:2 risk reward ratio on 20 trades

12 losses at $100 loss per trade and 8 wins at $200 profit per trade.

Net result: +$400 (net profit)

You can be a bad trader (win only 40% of trades) but if you follow this ratio you will be a long-term winner.
Guppy re-invented All Time Return: 30.4%
Quoting josephcom
{quote} Thank you for your contribution. Speaking of fundamental analysis, the only "true" fundamental factor, in my humble opinion, worth considering is interest rate because it provides an arbitrage opportunity for big boys. But here come a bunch of issues: There are many fundamental indicators leading to a change in Interest Rate (inflation, unemployment, GDP etc). This means each time a new figure is released by Central Banks, you'd have to interpret it in the bigger context and, from my experience, market reaction to these figures are often...


Zero fundamentals 100% technical and study how the algorithm moves. I was taught by a former central banker from Singapore in addition to no indicators except fib. And implement period separators. Stare at the chart as much as you say you study and it will click. If the majority is buying usually it means they are about to lose.. just like betting football underdogs. Don’t learn what the internet teaches you instead learn from those that don’t post results instead consistent analysis. Don’t expect much from results or curves all can be fake but analysis is legit. Hope that helps good luck buddy
Quoting Koogifx
{quote} Zero fundamentals 100% technical and study how the algorithm moves. I was taught by a former central banker from Singapore in addition to no indicators except fib. And implement period separators. Stare at the chart as much as you say you study and it will click. If the majority is buying usually it means they are about to lose.. just like betting football underdogs. Don’t learn what the internet teaches you instead learn from those that don’t post results instead consistent analysis. Don’t expect much from results or curves all can be fake...
Agree, fundamentals are waste of time, lets look at GBPJPY over the last two days. On Monday its worth 131, end of week 137. Last week it started at 126 and by mid week it was 135.

Manipulation is all it is, to make money for the big players.
So its 100% technical moved by the algorithm that has a code. Study the chart closely and you may just see whats really happening.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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