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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #81,721
  • Oct 8, 2019 11:15am Oct 8, 2019 11:15am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Agreed says the bullish Bat Harmonic. {image}
Target for this buy ought to be around 108.38 region
  • #81,722
  • Oct 8, 2019 11:31am Oct 8, 2019 11:31am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Sharing code is not permitted. YouTube is your friend.
That’s what they said in my university computer science courses
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #81,723
  • Edited 12:05pm Oct 8, 2019 11:42am | Edited 12:05pm
[quote=pipcenturion;12547891]{quote} Target for this buy ought to be around 108.38 region[/quote


108.2 is where I am at with eyes on 107.40 (it is a 61% fib off an FOMC drop.) that snagged us last night.

Powell "nice speak" caused a stop hunt to the south. Shaking off trailing stop people, and grabbing the sellers. That should be it for now barring a twit, or other news. Showed a nice support line too.

14:54 News Bot: Fed Chair Powell says there is no reason why the expansion cannot continue


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Support invalidated by more Powell speak. ouch @ that wick
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,724
  • Oct 8, 2019 12:58pm Oct 8, 2019 12:58pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Some coders permit their code to be shared by others and some prefer to share their code themselves. Some coders only share ex4 and some coders share mq4. The main thing is they are sharing their code so the trading community should respect each of their wishes.

OHHHHH.. ok. I got it. I was under the impression the work was yours. Thanks for the clarity.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,725
  • Oct 8, 2019 1:01pm Oct 8, 2019 1:01pm
Looks like we are going to pretend today never happened. 106.815 anyone? Perhaps 106.925?

Jk.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,726
  • Oct 8, 2019 2:46pm Oct 8, 2019 2:46pm
It sounds like I am going to be the one contrarian here in taking a short position. From a large scope to more narrow, this pair has been on a downtrend since June 2015.

Bond yields are also trending down, not to mention Powell's recent statements - "...The Fed will use rate cuts, forward guidance, and QE as appropriate...". To me this sounds like the Fed is comfortable flooding the market with more money, devaluing the dollar.

Lastly, on the H4 chart, i can trace the most recent downtrend and see almost to the point that the market is correcting up only to certain Fib lines before continuing down again. Most recently it reached close to the .38 line before falling. I am not saying that the pair is going to fall in a straight line, but it does appear overall price is heading down. At its lowest, it could reach the 104.5 range before the pattern ever reverses. The pair has been ranging between 104.56 to 114.7 as far back as mid-April.
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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #81,727
  • Oct 8, 2019 4:54pm Oct 8, 2019 4:54pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Can they be shared without an Alien probe? i don't mind a mind meld, but I draw the line at probing.
HAHAHA!!!! Good One!
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #81,728
  • Edited 7:47pm Oct 8, 2019 7:01pm | Edited 7:47pm
The FED wants 2%, will the FED still remain a follower of bond yields? Or will the FED try to maintain 2%, with QE?

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https://www.forexfactory.com/news/95...f-t-bills-wont

I've been under this suspicion, that the FED may act, with QE, to maintain the 2% but the FED has never acted outside the purpose of the FED's mandate. Other then after 2008, when bonds collapsed and 2 weeks ago. When the FED cut rates again. This is why I hold this suspicion.


But then you ask, why would the FED start now, price remains above the Powell speech zone of 106.8-106.93 with bonds down.

IF PRice breaks 106.8, its going to 105,

I think the FED will say what they have to, "possible rate cut", and price respond according, as it has over this full year, whenever the FED has said that.


EDIT*****for the past 5 years look at this week and next week, notice anything? SHould help with bias, I would think.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #81,729
  • Oct 8, 2019 7:46pm Oct 8, 2019 7:46pm
edit***
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #81,730
  • Oct 8, 2019 7:49pm Oct 8, 2019 7:49pm
Quoting COGSx86
EDIT*****for the past 5 years look at this week and next week, notice anything? SHould help with bias, I would think. {image}
More than 80% of the time, next week (week number 41) closes with a BEARISH body.
  • #81,731
  • Oct 8, 2019 8:13pm Oct 8, 2019 8:13pm
There is a probable bearish butterfly being set up on USDJPY H1 time frame.

Price is currently above the Volume Adjusted Price (VAP).

VAP for the just concluded hour closed ABOVE the day's open.

All these have BULLISH implications.

I expect rather strong buying within the next few hours.
  • #81,732
  • Oct 8, 2019 8:17pm Oct 8, 2019 8:17pm
Quoting warrensapp
It sounds like I am going to be the one contrarian here in taking a short position. From a large scope to more narrow, this pair has been on a downtrend since June 2015. Bond yields are also trending down, not to mention Powell's recent statements - "...The Fed will use rate cuts, forward guidance, and QE as appropriate...". To me this sounds like the Fed is comfortable flooding the market with more money, devaluing the dollar. Lastly, on the H4 chart,...

I agree with you that it appears on a decline when looking at the daily. Even the 4 hour, but go wider. Go to the weekly.


Weekly....
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If it follows the previous pattern shouldn't it create a new upright head?

I only know that since I have started observing and working with head and shoulders patterns I have had better success than any fundamentals. I am a bit of a conspiracy theorist, so I have always felt like the "keys to the caslte" were out in the open like most good things. I always point out that I am a babe in the woods here though so please feel free to educate me.
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,733
  • Oct 8, 2019 8:24pm Oct 8, 2019 8:24pm
Quoting COGSx86
The FED wants 2%, will the FED still remain a follower of bond yields? Or will the FED try to maintain 2%, with QE? {image} https://www.forexfactory.com/news/95...f-t-bills-wont I've been under this suspicion, that the FED may act, with QE, to maintain the 2% but the FED has never acted outside the purpose of the FED's mandate. Other then after 2008, when bonds collapsed and 2 weeks ago. When the FED cut rates again. This is why I hold this suspicion. But then you ask, why would the FED start...

Hmmm first week down, second up... ranging... Last week was definitely down.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,734
  • Oct 8, 2019 8:33pm Oct 8, 2019 8:33pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} I agree with you that it appears on a decline when looking at the daily. Even the 4 hour, but go wider. Go to the weekly. Weekly.... {image} If it follows the previous pattern shouldn't it create a new upright head? I only know that since I have started observing and working with head and shoulders patterns I have had better success than any fundamentals. I am a bit of a conspiracy theorist, so I have always felt like the "keys to the caslte" were out in the open like most good things. I always point out that I am a babe in the woods here...
I don't have a crystal ball or know all the answers myself, but to me in order for this to be an upside down head-and-shoulders pattern like you have drawn, then there needs to be an uptrend that continues above current resistance - which it still could. For now though, the most recent "shoulder" is stuck in a range between 104.56 and 114.7, with no clear direction.

I also saw an ambiguous triangle pattern on the daily that ended up breaking down after the pair was squeezed towards the end:
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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #81,735
  • Oct 8, 2019 9:39pm Oct 8, 2019 9:39pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
A story of greed gone wrong..... A friend of mine (no really.. a friend, not me) took 150$ up to 6900 in 6 days of trading. Won 2k on one trade alone yesterday trading the ripple vs USD. When the trade closed his first thought was to stop trading for the day. Having hit his desired mark, but the chart called to him, so he placed another trade with the new found balance as leverage. He is currently at $300. In closing. LISTEN to that little voice. Don't let your ego and greed pull you back in. This is a cautionary tale, not only for you, but for...

Good story. I've done this sort of thing many many times. I thought consistency meant consistency with trading triggers ie best set ups to trade, however now I know consistency should relate to EMOTIONAL STATE. It never ceases to amaze me that the market can seem like a crazy critter, but still simpler than the complexity of human emotions when trading.
Cheers helena
  • #81,736
  • Oct 8, 2019 10:24pm Oct 8, 2019 10:24pm
Ok something cool and from the past.

July 9th, 2014, the FED meeting minutes release:

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/49...rket-committee

July 13th, 2014 this was written in response to the FED minutes:


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https://www.forexfactory.com/news/49...y#post12548662



How the market reacted, after. 11 Months:

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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #81,737
  • Edited 10:43pm Oct 8, 2019 10:31pm | Edited 10:43pm
For the harmonic pattern trader

Probable bearish butterfly

The 127% Fibonacci expansion level is also a probable target.
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  • #81,738
  • Oct 9, 2019 4:09am Oct 9, 2019 4:09am
It appears we are double tapping our way up. On the one hour at least. Excuse the diff colors. All they mean is that i just woke up.

Gm.

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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,739
  • Oct 9, 2019 4:11am Oct 9, 2019 4:11am
Quoting pipcenturion
For the harmonic pattern trader Probable bearish butterfly The 127% Fibonacci expansion level is also a probable target. {image}

YES!!! That is exactly my thinking. I am glad you think the same. Encourages my naivete.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,740
  • Oct 9, 2019 4:24am Oct 9, 2019 4:24am
Quoting warrensapp
{quote} I don't have a crystal ball or know all the answers myself, but to me in order for this to be an upside down head-and-shoulders pattern like you have drawn, then there needs to be an uptrend that continues above current resistance - which it still could. For now though, the most recent "shoulder" is stuck in a range between 104.56 and 114.7, with no clear direction. I also saw an ambiguous triangle pattern on the daily that ended up breaking down after the pair was squeezed towards the end: {image}

I don't know for triangles, but this looks like a clear upright head and shoulders. Remove the triangle and this should have banked down IMO. I really feel like there are two sets of rules out there. One they teach to the cheetahs, and the other more complicated they pass on to the antelopes. Humans are inherently lazy. IF as we suspect people are in control they aren't spending time drawing too many lines in my opinion. I feel like this is going to the 109 level we have been looking for. All this bouncing was to trip up the antelopes. It will hit around some form of news, or perhaps around the time the tarrifs hit the market in December to make it explainable. For now a 108.1 to 108.45 tap. The only reason I trust Fibs, (and Harmonics because they are based ON fibs,) is that Fib numbers appear in nature and we are drawn to them unconsciously. Everything other professed trick i have looked at has failed more than it worked, and the best place to hide something is out in the open. Don't worry. I know i sound crazy. lol
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
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