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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #541
  • Oct 8, 2019 12:19pm Oct 8, 2019 12:19pm
Quoting Viktory
{quote} Do you actually have any consistent profitable edge in FX, allowing you to gain more than 50% ROI per year, with less than 10% DD?
50% per year, year after year with 10% max DD? No. Not possible for the average trader. Not possible even for most of the traders in top 1%.

Maybe if you're REALLY good trader, and with a bit of luck maybe you can do it for 2-3 years MAX if the market is good! (too many if's and maybe's)

But then comes the question - if you really have such edge why risk only 10% DD ? It does not make any sense!

With such high edge you should be risking at least 50%DD and you will get much better RR due to compounding.
You can start with 10 times less capital and still make more money compared to the low risk strategy.
  • #542
  • Oct 8, 2019 12:31pm Oct 8, 2019 12:31pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} 50% per year, year after year with 10% max DD? No. Not possible for the average trader. Not possible even for most of the traders in top 1%. Maybe if you're REALLY good trader, and with a bit of luck maybe you can do it for 2-3 years MAX if the market is good! (too many if's and maybe's) But then comes the question - if you really have such edge why risk only 10% DD ? It does not make any sense! With such high edge you should be risking at least 50%DD and you will get much better RR due to compounding. You can start with 10 times less capital...
Well, so only talking about retail traders... Are you within that "TOP" inside the 1%? Or do you currently know anyone active in today's market conditions?
  • #543
  • Oct 8, 2019 12:47pm Oct 8, 2019 12:47pm
Quoting Viktory
{quote} Well, so only talking about retail traders... Are you within that "TOP" inside the 1%? Or do you currently know anyone active in today's market conditions?
If you want to manage OPM then yes, it makes sense to keep the risk low despite the good edge because you want to look good for the investors.
But if you manage only your own capital you should go full blast as long as the strategy is working.

In regards to my situation, currently I'm definitely not in the top 1% of FX traders. (ignore my red diamond ). I made some money here and there with different strategies some manual, some automated, but nothing spectacular.

In the last 2-3 years Forex is just side thing for me. I keep my fx risk low because the conditions are not good right now. The volatility is too low, and there are no significant trends to play with. Mean reversion is the only thing that works "consistently" now but it's not very sustainable long term. So you can't take high risks.

Now I'm more and more interested in stocks and other alternative markets. For example we had some good hits with bitcoin. And there is still more potential there to the downside.
  • #544
  • Oct 8, 2019 12:50pm Oct 8, 2019 12:50pm
Quoting BubaYaga
{quote} It perhaps matters a little bit, without liquidity orders can't get filled. If orders can't get filled commissions can't be gained, and worse of all you deprive retail traders the opportunity of losing money.
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #545
  • Oct 8, 2019 6:09pm Oct 8, 2019 6:09pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} 50% per year, year after year with 10% max DD? No. Not possible for the average trader. Not possible even for most of the traders in top 1%. Maybe if you're REALLY good trader, and with a bit of luck maybe you can do it for 2-3 years MAX if the market is good! (too many if's and maybe's) But then comes the question - if you really have such edge why risk only 10% DD ? It does not make any sense! With such high edge you should be risking at least 50%DD and you will get much better RR due to compounding. You can start with 10 times less capital...
so true.
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #546
  • Oct 8, 2019 10:28pm Oct 8, 2019 10:28pm
interesting topic.
don't go very far, look at the ASIC Australian Securities and Investments Commission paper and reports.. recently they published some numbers

  1. 80% of clients who trade binary options lose money
  2. 72% of clients who trade CFDs lose money, and
  3. 63% of clients who trade CFD over currency pairs lose money.

https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-...-sale-of-cfds/
https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resou...atives-sector/

Now, with these authentic numbers in hand, you can infer that YES there are successful people in forex. The point is, the successful ones don't come to forums to post, they are busy themselves.

another point is, yes it takes years to understand forex.. like any other profession.. doctors take anything between 5 to 10 years.. lawyers take years to get good.. so. if you take forex as a profession and treat it like that .. takes years to master one's own psychology and to understand the market behaviour.. (i really don't want to talk about technical and fundamental side of forex).. no one can teach psychology.

cheers

A new journey in life ...
  • #547
  • Oct 8, 2019 11:12pm Oct 8, 2019 11:12pm
it's been a long time i replied to a forum like this..

yes there are success traders out there (not gonna point fingers). but i know they gonna spend more time with their family, community and their free time doing what they like the most rather than answering forum like this. They gonna hide themselve from the public and stay private I guess.
  • #548
  • Edited 4:51am Oct 9, 2019 1:27am | Edited 4:51am
It seems very interesting that the losers of all brokers reports - always exceed 50%

At individual level it's interesting too. Some folks lose money whatever they do !!!
...although statistically they should stick to 0% gain/loss on the long run.
0% gain/loss on long term is what happens if you blindly toss the coin to pick a trading direction.
So the stupidest startegy possible (toss coin) doesn't actually produce loss at all ...but not any gain either
But they still lose money even they reverse the losing strategy, and that's interesting ! They are unable to stick at least to 0% gain/loss whatever they do !
How is that possible ?

Let's consider this minimal bounce, a trivial, simple trend continuation sort of strategy :
- buy for 10 pips when the price pulls back and hits the EMA20 on H1, RR 1:1 (EUR/USD recommended)
- sell for 10 pips when the price rallies and hits the EMA20 on H1, RR 1:1

Let's say you have test it on multiple financial instruments for an year and you get a positive account growth result. Good. Go on!
But what if you get a negative account growth result ?
Logically, you should do the other way round in order to get a positive result
(hence vice versa, sell those pull backs and buy the rallies, simple counter-trend!)
But you'll find that doesn't work ...can anyone here explain why ?

..............................
Ok, this is The Lesson One for all the technical traders before start with real money
Whatever your strategy is, you have to create a constant disruption of the 50-50 balance... if you think it's that easy to do it on the long run
Remember, direction doesn't matter. Just break the balance one way or another ...and do it consistently!

Lesson Two
Your work was in vain, because the distruption of that balance you just created is not relevant at all.
Because there is no guarantee that it will be repeated ever again...

Lesson Three
Work, experiment, work, experiment, test, experiment, test, work, test... for a couple of years.
You will find that only your individual experience can give you the answer if you should continue or not.

Conclusion: There is no such thing as Holy Grail in trading. It's just individual experience ...and is not exportable

(Warning: all those smart trading robots you'll find on the internet are exposed to Black Swans all the time, even you change time frame, instrument, or settings,
...ok, you can be lucky, but don't you imagine is that easy to buy one of these and sit back while the robot enriches you! )
Member
  • #549
  • Oct 9, 2019 1:33am Oct 9, 2019 1:33am
Quoting tincog
interesting topic. don't go very far, look at the ASIC Australian Securities and Investments Commission paper and reports.. recently they published some numbers 80% of clients who trade binary options lose money 72% of clients who trade CFDs lose money, and 63% of clients who trade CFD over currency pairs lose money. https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-...-sale-of-cfds/ https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resou...atives-sector/...
i am here
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #550
  • Oct 9, 2019 1:34am Oct 9, 2019 1:34am
Quoting TudorIoan
It seems very interesting that the losers of all brokers reports - always exceed 50% At individual level it's interesting too. Some folks lose money whatever they do !!! ...although statistically they should stick to 0% gain/loss on the long run. 0% gain/loss on long term is what happens if you blindly toss the coin to pick a trading direction. So the stupidest startegy possible (toss coin) doesn't actually produce loss at all ...but not any gain either But they still lose money even they reverse the losing strategy, and that's interesting...
thank god for sane people
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #551
  • Oct 9, 2019 1:58am Oct 9, 2019 1:58am
Quoting tincog
interesting topic. don't go very far, look at the ASIC Australian Securities and Investments Commission paper and reports.. recently they published some numbers 80% of clients who trade binary options lose money 72% of clients who trade CFDs lose money, and 63% of clients who trade CFD over currency pairs lose money. https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-...-sale-of-cfds/ https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resou...atives-sector/...
yes it states that they LOSE money
but how many stay barely afloat ? that's the big of the bulk. Most traders don't have a good strategy, so it's 50/50 and they don't lose a lot so they don't fall into that "loser" category...
how many makes 10% a month is what i'm interested in
  • #552
  • Oct 9, 2019 5:15am Oct 9, 2019 5:15am
Quoting failinforex
Fake traders stop all the nonsense here, just take a look at Boulder, she is the best. She collects 10 pips numerous time in a day.
Fake Traders, take a look at Boulder, she just woke up took 2 positions and within 30 mins to an hour 20 pips.

Please stop all these long stories and learn from the pro
  • #553
  • Oct 9, 2019 5:23am Oct 9, 2019 5:23am
another useless thread
That which does not kill us makes us stronger
  • #554
  • Oct 9, 2019 5:45am Oct 9, 2019 5:45am
Quoting moneymove
another useless thread
Unfortunately ...

Just to give this thread a conclusion:

I've found this impressive statement here, on another thread.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.6 Snapshot.PNG Size: 63 KB


See the whole statement at 'Options: Join the real Professionals'.

This guy says it as it is: "Successful traders do not trade CFDs or are into daytrading, they sell puts on high liquid Blue Chip stocks."

- while retail traders are fighting for who has the better fx skills ;
  • #555
  • Oct 9, 2019 6:20am Oct 9, 2019 6:20am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} 50% per year, year after year with 10% max DD? No. Not possible for the average trader. Not possible even for most of the traders in top 1%. Maybe if you're REALLY good trader, and with a bit of luck maybe you can do it for 2-3 years MAX if the market is good! (too many if's and maybe's) But then comes the question - if you really have such edge why risk only 10% DD ? It does not make any sense! With such high edge you should be risking at least 50%DD and you will get much better RR due to compounding. You can start with 10 times less capital...
50℅ a year / max. 10% drawdown is possible, just with different assets.
  • #556
  • Oct 9, 2019 6:30am Oct 9, 2019 6:30am
Quoting ionone
{quote} yes it states that they LOSE money but how many stay barely afloat ? that's the big of the bulk. Most traders don't have a good strategy, so it's 50/50 and they don't lose a lot so they don't fall into that "loser" category... how many makes 10% a month is what i'm interested in
Good point. And how many will continue being winner the following year. Like I said before, those statistics are for one year only.
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #557
  • Oct 9, 2019 8:18am Oct 9, 2019 8:18am
Quoting josephcom
{quote} Good point. And how many will continue being winner the following year. Like I said before, those statistics are for one year only.
Jozephcom have you ever heard about Gregwilson?
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=88949
  • #558
  • Oct 9, 2019 9:01am Oct 9, 2019 9:01am
Quoting Fx-Gamer
{quote} 50℅ a year / max. 10% drawdown is possible, just with different assets.
Yes but with are discussing about Forex here.

And sure, anything is possible even with Forex. I mean, you can open only a few trades per year with high leverage and small stops, and you can get so lucky to such extend that you can have 10-20-30 and even more winning trades in a row. You can make 10 000% in a few years with small drawdown.....and more.
It is possible in theory and my tests and simulations show that such result can be achieved with completely random systems on random data.

But, what is the probability? Do you even know?
I will tell you - The odds are almost as bad as the odds for winning the lottery.
  • #559
  • Edited 1:04pm Oct 9, 2019 12:40pm | Edited 1:04pm
Look what the scammers are doing.

https://d.tube/#!/v/mt4-gets69d/QmdL...xjs9F7iFFHhf7K

These are the winners(3%), when people are giving you links to winning accounts, take this into consideration.

This is what your up against.
  • #560
  • Oct 9, 2019 1:31pm Oct 9, 2019 1:31pm
Quoting Fx-Gamer
{quote} Unfortunately ... Just to give this thread a conclusion: I've found this impressive statement here, on another thread. {image} See the whole statement at 'Options: Join the real Professionals'. This guy says it as it is: "Successful traders do not trade CFDs or are into daytrading, they sell puts on high liquid Blue Chip stocks." - while retail traders are fighting for who has the better fx skills ;
Not necessarily...

Contrary to Forex, I know some real consistent profitable Stock Options traders, using mainly either Interactive Brokers or TD Ameritrade. But with accounts bigger than $100K USD, it's not sustainable for the long run to pursue more than 30-60% returns per year on the whole account.

"Steady Options" is a great audited example of more or less how much you could make with medium-high risk in sub<100K accounts, mainly because of liquidity issues; and for something realistically achievable with bigger accounts, check their "Anchor Trades" & "Steady Momentum" performance.
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