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The Good, The Bad and The Ugly - A Real Trading Record

  • #201
  • Oct 6, 2019 4:42am Oct 6, 2019 4:42am
Hi Oldtraderman,

I hope you don't mind me posting some Observations?

Look for Levels and Observe how Price moves from these Levels and back to Test them.

Look at the Structure HLs - HHs / LHs - LLs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th oct 19 GBP:USD M1 Observations.png Size: 129 KB
  • #202
  • Oct 6, 2019 5:14am Oct 6, 2019 5:14am
Quoting stevepatt
Hi Oldtraderman, I hope you don't mind me posting some Observations? Look for Levels and Observe how Price moves from these Levels and back to Test them. Look at the Structure HLs - HHs / LHs - LLs {image}
Hi stevepatt,
Please do so! My views are just one of an infinite number of ways of observing and interpreting the price action, and no-one has a monopoly on wisdom. Different viewpoints presented for the same basic thing show that there is more than one way to boil an egg, and creates a fertile ground for each trader to develop their own personal style.

This last point is essential. You will not be able to trade a method with the necessary discipline and consistency through thick and thin if you don't fully believe in the ultimate validity of what you are doing. Losses and bad streaks are inevitable, you must find a way to get through them without becoming emotionally destabilised. We are all different so your method has to be tweaked and honed to fit your unique personality. Trying simply to copy another trader's method verbatim just won't work for you for long.
  • #203
  • Oct 6, 2019 8:12am Oct 6, 2019 8:12am
Quoting stevepatt
Hi Oldtraderman, I hope you don't mind me posting some Observations? Look for Levels and Observe how Price moves from these Levels and back to Test them. Look at the Structure HLs - HHs / LHs - LLs {image}
This is all Hindsight I know but it is a good way to learn how Price moves and use Market Structure to both get into and out of Trades.

Don't forget to move your SL to BE at the earliest sign of Price failing to do what "you expect to see"

Hope it helps!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th Oct 19 GBP:USD M1 Observations 2.png Size: 149 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th Oct 19 GBP:USD M1 Observations 3.png Size: 159 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: 6th Oct 19 GBP:USD M1 Observations 4.png Size: 178 KB
  • #204
  • Oct 6, 2019 12:14pm Oct 6, 2019 12:14pm
Oldtrader good thread.. All new traders want a fancy indicator or EA. Good to see a trader that's trading a naked charts. Are all of your trades 1:1?
  • #205
  • Oct 6, 2019 1:54pm Oct 6, 2019 1:54pm
Quoting focusonmoney
Oldtrader good thread.. All new traders want a fancy indicator or EA. Good to see a trader that's trading a naked charts. Are all of your trades 1:1?
Hi focusonmoney,
Welcome to the thread. I don't use indicators because I like simplicity and find the pure price action tells me all I need to know, the indicators don't add to my personal party. That said, if they work for a trader and help them understand better what is going on then, fine, use them.
As for EA, they are essentially black boxes built by someone else and you can quickly run into the problems of not having sufficient real confidence in them when the first poor patch comes along, as discussed briefly in post #202.

Regarding the 1:1 R:R, that is my default starting point in evaluating a potential trade. I think if you aim for less than 1:1 you are putting too much strain on the required trade success rate, so it is the minimum hurdle in my trade evaluation.
Should a trade be successful and approaches an open 1R profit I will at that point either take the 1R profit or run for more if things are looking strong, a purely subjective judgement by me at that moment.

I must also be honest and admit I am a cowardly and nervous trader who prefers to hear the till ring at 1R than risk going for the home run, by and large. It is my greatest weakness as a trader, I think, because I leave way too much extra profit on the table when I look back at my results. You will see in my posted trades I try to mention where more aggressive traders than me could easily play for >1R.
  • #206
  • Oct 7, 2019 12:56am Oct 7, 2019 12:56am
GBP/USD M1 Observations
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7th Oct 19 GBP:USD M1 Observations.png Size: 118 KB
  • #207
  • Edited 3:48am Oct 7, 2019 3:32am | Edited 3:48am
Hi all,
Trust you all had a good weekend.
We start this week with an excellent winner, and a good example that price structures in markets do indeed usefully repeat for us:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 30_20191007_09.01.png Size: 25 KB


The market opens at 8am with a big fall down, a big rise up, and then a fall again towards the big figure 12000 level. This chart is to me remarkably like that of last Friday, post #184 and this gives me a clue how to play it.

We see price unsurprisingly form a small box bouncing off 12000 before an attempted break up quickly fails and reverses. The chart feels like a short with the opening low at 11974 beckoning as a test after the failed run up towards 12050. Thus I am short at 12007 on the return to the top of the box, stop at top of break at 17 and initial 1R target at box low at 97. As price reaches 12000 I move the stop to breakeven for protection against a possible sharp bounce from there but today the market is friendly and continues down. I am tempted by the low at 74 so decide to run the trade past 1R at 97, finally taking a +26pt, 2.6R profit at 81 as it slides sharply toward the 80 level. I am not greedy for more than that though the test of the low is clearly a decent probability outcome, and indeed does happen.

So, a nice trade and one that benefited from having a reasonably functioning memory, even at my age!
Enough trading for today, back for more Tuesday

Trading to date: W3 L0 S1 +4.6%
  • #208
  • Oct 7, 2019 6:21am Oct 7, 2019 6:21am
Hi Everyone
Here is my trade for this evening. I feel it was a bit contrived but I'll take the pips none the less! As you can see plenty left on the table but I'm strictly going to stick with an RR of 1:1.5 so we can compare apples with bananas! I was quick to pull the trigger as soon as price reentered the box and then it promptly rejected!
Cheers
So far: W2 L0 +3%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_3535937_DE30_2019-10-07_18-36-09.png Size: 24 KB
  • #209
  • Oct 7, 2019 12:29pm Oct 7, 2019 12:29pm
Quoting stevepatt
GBP/USD M1 Observations {image}
GBP/USD M1 Observations

I wasn't around to take advantage of these setups.

Work commitments get in the way of the best setups.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 7th Oct 19 GBP:USD m1 Observations 3.png Size: 162 KB
  • #210
  • Oct 7, 2019 12:54pm Oct 7, 2019 12:54pm
Quoting Nikl
Hi Everyone Here is my trade for this evening. I feel it was a bit contrived but I'll take the pips none the less! As you can see plenty left on the table but I'm strictly going to stick with an RR of 1:1.5 so we can compare apples with bananas! I was quick to pull the trigger as soon as price reentered the box and then it promptly rejected! Cheers So far: W2 L0 +3% {image}

Hi Niki,

Nice Trade, here's my take on it for what it is worth.

Structure is always worth noting even on M1.

Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7th Oct 19 Ger 30 M1 Observations.png Size: 135 KB
  • #211
  • Oct 7, 2019 8:13pm Oct 7, 2019 8:13pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Niki, Nice Trade, here's my take on it for what it is worth. Structure is always worth noting even on M1. Cheers {image}
Hi Steve
Thanks for the tips, much appreciated. I always find your charts a great source of info!
cheers
Nick
  • #212
  • Oct 8, 2019 1:23am Oct 8, 2019 1:23am
GBP/USD M1 Long Trade

10 Pip SL
20 Pip TP
1% Risk
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8th Oct 19 GBP:USD M1 Long Trade.png Size: 154 KB
  • #213
  • Oct 8, 2019 1:46am Oct 8, 2019 1:46am
Quoting stevepatt
GBP/USD M1 Long Trade 10 Pip SL 20 Pip TP 1% Risk {image}

Price has reversed hard out for a (-7 Pip) Loss
  • #214
  • Oct 8, 2019 3:07am Oct 8, 2019 3:07am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Price has reversed hard out for a (-7 Pip) Loss
Hi stevepatt,
Good on you for being brave enough to post a loss. Many won't. It's not a sign of weakness or failure, rather an acceptance of what trading is really about and having the strength to set and respect stops.
  • #215
  • Oct 8, 2019 3:23am Oct 8, 2019 3:23am
Hi all,
Apologies in advance for straying from the path of rectangle false breaks this morning but I couldn't help trading what was in front of me today, so take this as a digression from the main event of this demonstration that I won't be counting in the rolling results.

You may have realised by now that the rectangle false break method is something of a reversal strategy, even if you do take trades with the prevailing flow (as you should try to), i.e. ideally, we enter on the failure of a weak countertrend break of a consolidation box.
However, sometimes the trend is so strong that you don't get meaningful consolidation boxes so you just have to go with the flow each time a rebound fails and rolls over.

The opening hour of the DAX today was exactly this, a powerful downtrend that provided three successive rollover trades I simply had to take, all conveniently on one chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 30_20191008_09.03.png Size: 33 KB


NB Apologies for trade #3 (red) on chart. Trade should have read: Short 53, Stop 63, Target 43. What is posted is 10pts out. Sorry.

I won't go into any real discussion of these trades, you can see easily enough how price successively collapses, rebounds weakly and then rolls over to crash down to new lows. Each time price rolls over it is a good probability trade as long as you keep the stop above the rebound high. Three trades are shown in black, green and red, essentially the same thing one after the other. Of course such a power move is comparatively rare but it can be good trading when it happens, as here

With all this excitement and profits in the book, I haven't got it in me to look for our rectangle false breaks today so no trading on the main front today, back tomorrow

Trading to date: W3 L0 S1 +4.6%
  • #216
  • Oct 8, 2019 5:20am Oct 8, 2019 5:20am
As an aside, I recently bought a nice Apple iMac thinking the big screen etc would be great fro trading. But it seems I might have been better off with a big screen Microsoft desk top. I have to trade via web based trading platform i.e. Corespreads ( Australia -no mesa - : or AMP Global ( Europe) Futures web based MT5 thingy ! Having said that the Micro Futures on the likes of Futures brokers such as AMP offer a good intro to Futures.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #217
  • Oct 8, 2019 6:45am Oct 8, 2019 6:45am
Quoting turnip15
As an aside, I recently bought a nice Apple iMac thinking the big screen etc would be great fro trading. But it seems I might have been better off with a big screen Microsoft desk top. I have to trade via web based trading platform i.e. Corespreads ( Australia -no mesa - : or AMP Global ( Europe) Futures web based MT5 thingy ! Having said that the Micro Futures on the likes of Futures brokers such as AMP offer a good intro to Futures.
Hi turnip15.
My old computer monitor recently died after a long and happy life and I replaced it with a 30 inch TV monitor. Excellent for a chart and very easy on my ageing eyes. Have to turn the background brightness down a bit though or you'd soon go snowblind with all the light!
  • #218
  • Oct 8, 2019 7:18am Oct 8, 2019 7:18am
Hi all,
Despite having said I was going to call it a halt earlier, after a break and a cup of coffee I was feeling dangerous so came back for another look. Two box trades resulted with mixed outcomes, a gain and a loss for an overall scratch on the day:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 30_20191008_13.12.png Size: 28 KB


With the DAX still going sharply south, I see the first box with a top around the 86 level. A spike up to 93 quickly reverse and I am short with the primary flow at 84, stop above spike at 94, target within box at 74. A solid setup and quickly rewarded with a +10pt 1R trade.

Perhaps a bit too keen now, I find a second box with top 70, then a spike to 81 reverses sharply and I am short again at 68. The 10pt stop this time is only 78, just below the spike high but I take the trade beause it is a sharp spike and because the trend has been unrelentingly down all morning.

However, this time the market shows some resolve at last, does not continue down and a quick jump up takes me out for -10pts -1R, even though the top of the spike is not breached. A greedy trade, should have passed on the opportunity - a touch of overconfident overtrading perhaps?!

Enough for today now

Trading to date: W4 L1 S1 +4.6%
  • #219
  • Oct 8, 2019 7:34am Oct 8, 2019 7:34am
Hi Everyone
Normal service resumed for me earlier with 2 losses on the Dax (-2%)
Came across an opportunity on GBPUSD. Once again it felt a bit contrived. This one I went against the trend as price had already breached a couple of (previous) daily lows and was very close to another (blue dotted line)
Cheers
W3 L2 +3%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_3580285_GBPUSD_2019-10-08_20-18-19.png Size: 31 KB
  • #220
  • Oct 8, 2019 8:14am Oct 8, 2019 8:14am
Quoting Oldtraderman
{quote} Hi turnip15. My old computer monitor recently died after a long and happy life and I replaced it with a 30 inch TV monitor. Excellent for a chart and very easy on my ageing eyes. Have to turn the background brightness down a bit though or you'd soon go snowblind with all the light!
I am not a techie but can you connect a TV monitor to a laptop !!?
( If so I could buy one and plug in the lap top ?)
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
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