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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #441
  • Oct 4, 2019 1:49pm Oct 4, 2019 1:49pm
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  • #442
  • Edited Oct 5, 2019 12:39am Oct 4, 2019 9:13pm | Edited Oct 5, 2019 12:39am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} You are doing very well, but you need a magic loser fund to bale out those damaged by your trading. From your posts, you have damaged your family, your neighbors, random people you’ve passed walking down the street, small animals living in nearby woods, etc. You’re fine, but others are hurting as a result of...you. They need a magic rescue fund, but you’re fine. And, as part of your efforts to rescue those that you’ve damaged, your magic rescue fund has the backing of the SEC, because of your magic powers of persuasion. Your life in Mingaryland,...
A somewhat desperate yet funny attempt at damage control ..
Let's stay on topic, the fact remains (95 % probability) that you are not making a living trading retail forex as your only source of income.
And if you are making any kind of money from some retail forex related activity it's from some sort of commercial activity (products and/or services)
The world of retail forex is divided into 2 groups (they can overlap to some degree)

1) Group 1: those who believe they can make money
2) Group 2: those who will enable Group 1 and/or sell them "a way to make money in retail forex"

The latter is by far the most shameful, because they know that the former is always fighting a losing battle.
More transparency is needed.
  • #443
  • Edited 10:17am Oct 5, 2019 9:56am | Edited 10:17am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} A somewhat desperate yet funny attempt at damage control .. Let's stay on topic, the fact remains (95 % probability) that you are not making a living trading retail forex as your only source of income. And if you are making any kind of money from some retail forex related activity it's from some sort of commercial activity (products and/or services) The world of retail forex is divided into 2 groups (they can overlap to some degree) 1) Group 1: those who believe they can make money 2) Group 2: those who will enable Group 1 and/or sell them...
5% winning traders is way way too optimistic. In most retail FX brokerages the long term (3+ years) failure rate is close to 100%.
Even the most "capable" and lucky traders will lose everything eventually, as long as they keep trading.
The inevitable negative expectation in the context of the law of large numbers is simply inescapable.

There is no such thing as long term profitable and successful retail traders! Only some lucky ones in the short and meadium term.
The is no such thing as trading for a living. You cannot make a career out of trading at home as a regular job. It a waste of time to go this route.
Trading as a main source of income is absolute mirage. Again, a complete waste of time, and a sure way to poverty.

There is only one correct way to approach Forex as a retail trader - use it like a high risk alternative investment and don't bet your life savings on it!
Spend minimum time, play small, and keep your risks at a minimum. Learn how to use the randomness in the market and search for the fat tails.

This way if you manage to survive long enough eventually, sooner or later you will hit some big winners and with these winners and with a bit of luck you can multiply your capital many times.
In essence Forex is a bit like small cap/penny stocks. You have to look, search and wait for the rare outliers.

Every year there are 3-5 big events and each of them can double your money with very little initial risk as long you apply the correct approach for such situations.
Usually it all comes comes down to pyramiding your way into a fat tail event.
As soon as you detect the event, you start with small lots and as the trend progresses further you keep adding new lots and each new trade must be larger than the previous. At the same time you trail your stop at BE or close to it.

This is very very hard way to trade psychologically, even if you do it with automated systems because over 90% of the time your account is in drawdown.
But in the end of the day this is what works.
There are other alternatives with mean reversion styles, but they are very unsustainable. They are very good money makers most of the time, but always break down and fail eventually with catastrophic losses due to systemic risk accumulation.
  • #444
  • Oct 5, 2019 12:20pm Oct 5, 2019 12:20pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} A somewhat desperate yet funny attempt at damage control .. Let's stay on topic, the fact remains (95 % probability) that you are not making a living trading retail forex as your only source of income. And if you are making any kind of money from some retail forex related activity it's from some sort of commercial activity (products and/or services) The world of retail forex is divided into 2 groups (they can overlap to some degree) 1) Group 1: those who believe they can make money 2) Group 2: those who will enable Group 1 and/or sell them...
I make a living trading the forex. I know about 100 people in my trading group that make a living trading the forex. You can go to my FF journal to read what I do. I dont provide "curves" or other bullshit to prove that I'm successful. I dont care if you or anyone else believes me or not. And as I've done many times, I'd be happy to post my trading plan, plus trades in real time, right here on this thread just to prove the point.

I absolutely do not work for anyone, especially a broker or whatever. Nor do I mentor people or take money for anything related to forex trading. I do spend about $400 a month on trading tools to manage my trading and my trades, but I dont comment or publicize where those tools come from.

I have stated in many threads on FF that nearly everyone who tries to trade will fail. Trading is very difficult, and most people, such as yourself, have no idea how much work is required, nor do most know what they need to know, nor do they know where to go to learn. Most fail and then go away. A few fail and then hang around FF where they drone on and on about their failure. A rare few become creative in their failure, dreaming of a world where a magic fund appears to help them recover their dignity.

The world of retail forex is divided into many groups, not just 2. Unfortunately a lot of those groups will involve losing. But many of those people will gain something in life from the experience. They gain knowledge about an interesting part of international finance, and I'd like to think they use that to achieve success in some other field of investing and personal finance. Most, upon reflection, gain a new and empowering perspective of themselves. And of course, some end up like you, Mingary: bitter, disillusioned, and psychologically paralyze.

I want this to be my last post on this thread. It became a waste of time a while back. My final message to anyone still reading this crap is this: you can listen to Mingary's narrative of doom and gloom, where he has convinced the US Securities and Exchange Commission to establish a magic loser fund to help you out of your losses, or you can get busy learning to understand and trade the forex market narrative. One of these two things is real, and it's up to you and what you do that determines which one is real for you.
  • #445
  • Oct 5, 2019 1:06pm Oct 5, 2019 1:06pm
Quoting josephcom
OK, it's time for me ...willing to show his/her results? Come on, please give us some hope WE NEED TO SEE A CURVE (doesn't have to have numbers on it, just a graphical (equity) curve) Thank you very much. {image} {image} {image}

There are not that many. about %1 not even %5
This dude for example

https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/597267

makes about $20000 monthly from signal memberships, winning rate is > %98, DD% about 10..I do not think successful traders will keep same broker (same records) for over 3 years. since the compounding profits makes anyone wants to leave small regular retail brokers to do business with better broker with better efficiency. instead.
  • #446
  • Oct 5, 2019 3:08pm Oct 5, 2019 3:08pm
I’ve been trading since 2007. I never had any consistent, long-term success until I started trading Equity (stocks) using the weekly charts a few years ago. I admire people who can successfully trade the minute and hourly charts, I would prefer to do that, but alas, I would rather make money. I believe there are successful Forex daytraders, I was just never able to do it.
  • #447
  • Oct 5, 2019 3:24pm Oct 5, 2019 3:24pm
Trade forex by all means but be aware



there is a saying amongst brokers
it is the 90% Rule
90% of traders lose 90% of their money in 90 days..

just saying..
  • #448
  • Oct 5, 2019 5:09pm Oct 5, 2019 5:09pm
If you want to be successful in Forex look at this picture and think about it really hard. Also think of accumulation, manipulation, expansion, and distribution as you're looking at the picture.
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  • #449
  • Oct 5, 2019 5:52pm Oct 5, 2019 5:52pm
Quoting AngieT
Trade forex by all means but be aware there is a saying amongst brokers it is the 90% Rule 90% of traders lose 90% of their money in 90 days.. just saying..
If you wanted to be a doctor, would you walk in off the street, pick up a scalpel and start to perform heart surgery in your first week.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #450
  • Oct 5, 2019 6:08pm Oct 5, 2019 6:08pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} If you wanted to be a doctor, would you walk in off the street, pick up a scalpel and start to perform heart surgery in your first week. {image}
That is a poor analogy... to be a heart surgeon... you have to do very well in undergrad, 3.0+ and do well on the MCAT. Then you have to get accepted by a med school, 4 years. For surgery, a residency of ~6 years. For cardiac surgery add a couple more years... So, nobody is walking in off the street to do heart surgery. If you are saying that trading currency is very complicated but anyone can open an account and do it then we are talking about different things.
  • #451
  • Oct 5, 2019 6:49pm Oct 5, 2019 6:49pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} If you wanted to be a doctor, would you walk in off the street, pick up a scalpel and start to perform heart surgery in your first week. {image}
Great post Rick!! So true.

I knew Aussi would like this one.
Empty your mind and let the market guide you
  • #452
  • Oct 5, 2019 10:27pm Oct 5, 2019 10:27pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} If you wanted to be a doctor, would you walk in off the street, pick up a scalpel and start to perform heart surgery in your first week. {image}
It's a big big mistake and tremendous sin that some people do to us. Keeping us hopeful all our lives. There's no chance trading in Forex.

I am 99.9999% sure after all those years I wasted to write computer codes, statistics, probability theories, learning about fundamental craps, ...

You know what? 5% of traders are losers in Forex? hahaha, another big lie from brokers and system sellers to make us think "OK, I'm gonna stand at 5% side". There's no such a thing. They only publish those figures for 1 financial year. If they expand the period to, for example 2 years, I assure you 99.5% are losers and in 3 years 100% of them will start reviewing Mark Douglas books to justify their losses

If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #453
  • Oct 5, 2019 10:51pm Oct 5, 2019 10:51pm
Quoting josephcom
{quote} It's a big big mistake and tremendous sin that some people do to us. Keeping us hopeful all our lives. There's no chance trading in Forex. I am 99.9999% sure after all those years I wasted to write computer codes, statistics, probability theories, learning about fundamental craps, ... You know what? 5% of traders are losers in Forex? hahaha, another big lie from brokers and system sellers to make us think "OK, I'm gonna stand at 5% side". There's no such a thing. They only publish those figures for 1 financial year. If they expand the period...
Wrong, the actual figures leaked out were 75% lose, 25% win by an American broker. They say 95% lose to make those winning traders think they are special.
More win than you think, check the facts rather than spinning this 95% bullshit stuff. Its all part of the lie to keep traders longer in the game.

However out of those 25% of winning traders, it is my belief that very few would be earning a wage.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #454
  • Oct 5, 2019 11:43pm Oct 5, 2019 11:43pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} But many of those people will gain something in life from the experience. They gain knowledge about an interesting part of international finance, and I'd like to think they use that to achieve success in some other field of investing and personal finance. Most, upon reflection, gain a new and empowering perspective of themselves.
this is a very good point, you learn a lot about yourself from trading, Many things you would of never discovered before and will help you in other areas of your life, I'm surprised not more has been written about this
life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #455
  • Oct 5, 2019 11:48pm Oct 5, 2019 11:48pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} 5% winning traders is way way too optimistic. In most retail FX brokerages the long term (3+ years) failure rate is close to 100%. Even the most "capable" and lucky traders will lose everything eventually, as long as they keep trading. The inevitable negative expectation in the context of the law of large numbers is simply inescapable. There is no such thing as long term profitable and successful retail traders! Only some lucky ones in the short and meadium term. The is no such thing as trading for a living. You cannot make a career out...
What he says.
  • #456
  • Oct 6, 2019 12:05am Oct 6, 2019 12:05am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} 5% winning traders is way way too optimistic. In most retail FX brokerages the long term (3+ years) failure rate is close to 100%. Even the most "capable" and lucky traders will lose everything eventually, as long as they keep trading. The inevitable negative expectation in the context of the law of large numbers is simply inescapable.
So where do all these losses go? Who wins all that cheddar? Surely SOMEONE is winning if there is such a mountain of losses piling up.
  • #457
  • Oct 6, 2019 12:11am Oct 6, 2019 12:11am
Quoting ArbitragAcid
{quote} So where do all these losses go? Who wins all that cheddar? Surely SOMEONE is winning if there is such a mountain of losses piling up.
Probably to Aussi


Big players always get most of the money, we are just trying to gets a few crumbs
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #458
  • Oct 6, 2019 12:27am Oct 6, 2019 12:27am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Probably to Aussi Big players always get most of the money, we are just trying to gets a few crumbs
Your "Aussie" still didn't show any stats to us, just pointing at his thread.... hahaha
high impact members are more at forex factory than at trading, we all know that.

You know what?!
Go trade stocks, cause the risk-reward ratio is higher than with forex.
  • #459
  • Oct 6, 2019 12:28am Oct 6, 2019 12:28am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Probably to Aussi Big players always get most of the money, we are just trying to gets a few crumbs
Mate i am sure you get a little more than you let on
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #460
  • Oct 6, 2019 12:34am Oct 6, 2019 12:34am
Here is what happens in my opinion:
1) You load your account with 1000$ (for example).
2) You start trading safely and patiently and start accumulating small profits.
3) Then either your patience give up or your built-in installed greed rises from the dead.
4) Now you are in a state that you start accumulating some good profits.
5) But then one day you face a good amount of loss too. Suppose your account went up from 1000$ to 1500$ and then you suddenly lost 400$ out of anxiety, greed, fear all all those negative thoughts.
6) Now you are in a situation where you are under more pressure and all that is in your mind is to somehow get back those lost 400$.
7) Guess what, more anxiety, more tension, more greed. You start abandoning your strategy and start loosing bigger lots.
8) You guessed it right, "WIPE-OUT".

There is no strategy in forex that work consistent. Its a blend of Global Market Situation, an eye on world economics, and control on your negative emotions. Coming up a strategy in my next post to overcome fear, anxiety, greed.
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