USD/JPY Discussion

below 107 can lead to a break of 106.5 towards 105, but bears need to be cautious since good U.S/China trade talk news can be positive for USD/JPY

i sold with a stop placed above 107, target 105 or lower

Yes !
Just shifted to Long

I am still learning harmonics and am a complete novice, so I didn't put much stock in this when it popped up on my Harmonics indicator, but... jeesh. Right to the target...

Dont you use stop loss

Do you think the NFP news tomorrow won't drag the UJ further down? I have a buy position as well 107.300, i opened it too soon, what is your indicator of going long?

Stop loss has ALWAYS done worse for me than helped. I have learned that stop loss is for greedy people. If your account is in good standing it can survive the waves. By that I mean that if you go for small steady gains, when the market goes against you it will also go against you in an acceptable amount. Case in point Last night I got scared. So I put in a stop loss. Guess where that money is now, and guess where it would be had I not put in that stop loss. I put it in "just in case". When in fact if I had those doubts I shouldn't have traded in the first place. With that said, The market is now proving my initial direction to have been the right one. It even validated my 106.8 support, yet when things didn't go exactly as planned I began to second guess myself and ... stop loss. As stated before. I am new. 3yrs into trading, and only 1 into forex, so my advice is to be taken with a grain of salt. But from what I have learned in discussions. The most successful of the traders don't use them. Amir is a beast and uses Harmonics. So when he enters a trade he has measured three times before he cuts. This is a leason I am learning, and having seen his gains as well as those of others, I encourage it greatly.



I apologize for answering his question, but frankly I needed to say/put that out there to admonish myself for the mistake I made.

106.8 is holding, and held the 4hr candle (closed at 108.21). The Dow is making a serious comeback. 400 point bounce. Lastly... I came accross a post a year or so ago that alluded to the 24%-42% fib levels being where the banks load up. After things settlesd and I was able to look at my charts look what I found... Keep in mind these two fibs were drawn independant of one another...





Yen

90% on buy train, pain will be delivered and bulls are going to get whipped hard.

FOMC was active today. Showing their hand? Or tomorrow will Powell lay down something else.

USD/JPY - Options Target Deeper Declines, But Bears Be Wary!

1. USD/JPY options positioned for a spot setback for weeks
2. Coming to fruition now amid haven demand, growth woes, USD weakness
3. 1-month implied vol new 4-week high 7.0 Wednesday , now 7.2
4. Renewed demand for low strike USD/JPY options today, downside protection
5. Buyers 2-week 106.50-00 and a 1-month 105 JPY calls bought amongst others
6. However, JPY bulls should beware China/US trade talks next week
7. Any interim deal would boost risk and USD/JPY, press back on option premium

Have more room to move down

Bounced off of 50fib maybe it goes to 109.20 area

Not yet I think, maybe next week after the trade talks

Yes I think so too. I think will be little movement today. Bearish usdjpy. Tough one

Powell at 2pm will shake things up. Bank loaded up overnight IMO, and the last of the orders seem to be being filled right now. We were waiting on news which is out. Now waiting on some nice speak from Powell to pop or drop. I am leaning towards pop unless we get some range before then.

We could be heading to 106.4 - 106.2

curious as to why you think this?

The chart tells 2 stories. First, the rate drop July 30th. 7 days of strong downward trend, afterward. News spike, comfort zone, FED minutes...........Powell Speaks, the market reverses the following monday. Even though bonds maintained a solid downtrend UJ wanted to recover. As it always does, thats why this pair is the only pair I trade. Its the best for exactly that. But soon I feel this range will end. Allowing Japans currency to continue the rise. This would push Japan to becoming a superpower as their economic model shifts into the new age, leading the way. This of course takes time but moments like these are at the turning points in history, before something big happens? Or will it be where the market just consolidates.

After Powell's speech, the market reverses last wednesday sept 18th within range of the HTF downward trend line, on the HTF. Another Rate Drop, right at the same location.

The market tries again to break the trend (not really just everyone loading up hahaha), right as Quarles FOMC member makes a public appearance, the market begins to see head winds.

And here we are now,

Highs and lows for NFP and FOMC days.

I still see a downtrend overall, though there maybe some correction in the next couple of trading days up to 107.5 or so. After which I feel the trend continues. Bond yields are also trending down.

H4: