Attachments: USD/CAD

USD/CAD

#15,341
Sep 29, 2019 2:04pm Sep 29, 2019 2:04pm

PatrickR
| Joined Feb 2019 | Status: Trader | 23 Posts

Quoting gespiri

Disliked

{quote} IMO, they use fundamentals (news) to explain the moves in the markets. Market trends and price actions are primarily driven by buyers'/sellers' emotions, manipulation by the big boys, and other factors. They try to explain the moves using fundamentals and if that doesn't work, they blame it on other things. I follow the trend, follow fib levels, and follow MM levels while keeping an eye on what news would come up during that time especially when PA is nearing one of these levels. For now, the trend is showing down. However, I expect to see...

Ignored

Fundamentals are statistical data collected on the economy, I don't even comprehend half of what you wrote. Clearly, If U.S employment numbers are rising thats going to get priced in and price will potentially weaken. this is just and example however I think you should understand what I mean.

#15,342
Sep 29, 2019 2:07pm Sep 29, 2019 2:07pm

gespiri
Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Lost.... | 2,384 Posts

Quoting PatrickR

Disliked

{quote} Fundamentals are statistical data collected on the economy, I don't even comprehend half of what you wrote. Clearly, If U.S employment numbers are rising thats going to get priced in and price will potentially weaken. this is just and example however I think you should understand what I mean.

Ignored

Understood. Take my comment with a grain of salt since I've been burned many times following fundamentals.

Lost....

#15,343
Sep 29, 2019 3:23pm Sep 29, 2019 3:23pm

goldencalf
Joined Apr 2019 | Status: Trader | 297 Posts

COT report shows decrease of open interest from 187 September 14, to 123 September 21...

#15,344
Edited 10:56am Sep 30, 2019 10:40am | Edited 10:56am

Unbiased
| Commercial User | Joined Sep 2019 | 249 Posts

CAD has shown strength against USD in last few days whereas all other major currencies have weakened against it.

On H4 time-frame:

1.3339 was not broken and now the bullish channel has already been invalidated.

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We need trend change confirmation on daily/D1 time-frame. Then we can target Fib.68.1 at least for a quick trade with invalidation point above today's high. We can target FIB78.6 as 2nd target.

FIB61.8 coincides with round no. 1.3200 and it is also support1 of weekly pivot . FIB78.6 is slightly above support2 of weekly pivot.

I am keeping targets small because USD/CAD has tendency to trade in short range for long time unless there is fundamental driving force.

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#15,345
Oct 2, 2019 4:39am Oct 2, 2019 4:39am

tatianah
Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Sniper Mode | 408 Posts

Going long on CAD

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#15,346
Oct 2, 2019 9:26am Oct 2, 2019 9:26am

Esysbot
| Joined May 2019 | Status: Trader | 3 Posts

Quoting tatianah

Disliked

Going long on CAD {image}

Ignored

Great call , T !

#15,347
Oct 2, 2019 9:55am Oct 2, 2019 9:55am

goldencalf
Joined Apr 2019 | Status: Trader | 297 Posts

NFP in 2 days... boys want to have better price to sell?

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#15,348
Oct 2, 2019 5:50pm Oct 2, 2019 5:50pm

Oc6oph
Joined Nov 2018 | Status: Trader | 4,643 Posts

Quoting Oc6oph

Disliked

Going to look to short above these tops {image}

Ignored

Going to start looking for shorts

ex nihilo

#15,349
Oct 2, 2019 5:53pm Oct 2, 2019 5:53pm

Oc6oph
Joined Nov 2018 | Status: Trader | 4,643 Posts

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ex nihilo

#15,350
Oct 3, 2019 2:22am Oct 3, 2019 2:22am

tatianah
Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Sniper Mode | 408 Posts

Quoting tatianah

Disliked

Going long on CAD {image}

Ignored

our BUY in CAD went awesomeeee!

≧◠‿◠≦✌
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#15,351
Oct 3, 2019 3:09am Oct 3, 2019 3:09am

Suj
| Joined May 2017 | Status: Trader | 760 Posts

Quoting tatianah

Disliked

{quote} our BUY in CAD went awesomeeee! ≧◠‿◠≦✌ ≧◠‿◠≦✌ ≧◠‿◠≦✌ {image}

Ignored

Trend to continue it's looking

#15,352
Oct 3, 2019 4:28am Oct 3, 2019 4:28am

Unbiased
| Commercial User | Joined Sep 2019 | 249 Posts

Quoting Unbiased

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CAD has shown strength against USD in last few days whereas all other major currencies have weakened against it. On H4 time-frame: 1.3339 was not broken and now the bullish channel has already been invalidated. {image} We need trend change confirmation on daily/D1 time-frame. Then we can target Fib.68.1 at least for a quick trade with invalidation point above today's high. We can target FIB78.6 as 2nd target. FIB61.8 coincides with round no. 1.3200 and it is also support1 of weekly pivot . FIB78.6 is slightly above support2 of weekly pivot. I am...

Ignored

USD/CAD had not continued to FIB61.8. Nevertheless, Tuesday's fall had given me chance to move SL to BE, later closed with +10.0 pips.

#15,353
Oct 3, 2019 4:32am Oct 3, 2019 4:32am

Unbiased
| Commercial User | Joined Sep 2019 | 249 Posts

CAD has turned to be the weakest currency since beginning of Wednesday. It seems like CAD (a risky currency) weakens the most when JPY (a safe heaven currency) gains the most in global economic tensions.
I don't see any trade setup on CAD pairs as of now.

#15,354
Oct 3, 2019 6:29am Oct 3, 2019 6:29am

Ziko9o8
Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,525 Posts

Quoting Unbiased

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CAD has turned to be the weakest currency since beginning of Wednesday.....

Ignored

- Then it is time to buy or at least scalping short USDCAD.

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#15,355
Edited 7:21am Oct 3, 2019 7:06am | Edited 7:21am

Unbiased
| Commercial User | Joined Sep 2019 | 249 Posts

Quoting Ziko9o8

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{quote} - Then it is time to buy or at least scalping short USDCAD. {image}

Ignored

USD has already been weakening against highly influential currencies like JPY and EUR. An upward pullback in USD/JPY and a downward pullback in EUR/USD may strengthen USD for that short span of time.

Another thing: When USD falls against JPY over global economic tensions, CAD starts to fall even more against JPY; that's why CAD is called risky currency and JPY is called safe heaven. As CAD falls more, USD/CAD gains for that span of time; recent gains in USD/CAD is result of this phenomenon.

Therefore, if USD/JPY pulls back and continue downtrend, we should look for selling CAD/JPY.

This is what happened in past whenever usd/jpy rose -
Betwen (dd/m) 25.6 - 9.7
cad>usd>jpy

19.7 - 31.7
usd>cad>jpy

10.9 - 18.9
usd>cad>jpy

Conclusion: Which one out of USD and CAD will rise more against JPY, it depends on USD/CAD scenario.

Therefore, now if USD/JPY will rise/pullback upward, CAD/JPY will rise more because CAD will bounce from oversold levels on H4 time-frame.
Then if USD/JPY resumes down movement, I will short CAD/JPY.
Note: this is valid if and only if/as long as there is no major economic factor coming from Canada or Crude Oil.

A short trade of USD/CAD is preferred if and only if CAD is driven by itself rather than global factors. If CAD strengthens due to crude oil prices or economic news/data from Canada, then I like to buy CAD vs USD (sell USD/CAD) and ignore JPY.

#15,356
Oct 3, 2019 7:19am Oct 3, 2019 7:19am

Unbiased
| Commercial User | Joined Sep 2019 | 249 Posts

Another probable scenario of shorting USD/CAD:

Recently NZD and EUR gained against USD. AUD is also trying. If EUR, NZD and AUD continue to gain against USD in same fashion (after small pullbacks) and if we see pull backs in JPY pairs, gain in CAD/JPY will be more than gain in USD/JPY because USD will be supressed by EUR, NZD and AUD.
Note that EUR/USD is most traded pair. It affects USD-index the most.

That will be the time to trade CAD in terms of sell of USD/CAD.

I will be monitoring it.

Note: As long as there is no news/data from Canada or Crude Oil, CAD pairs are driven by global factors and pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY because CAD is very less popular and less traded currency on its own.

#15,357
Oct 3, 2019 10:10am Oct 3, 2019 10:10am

Ziko9o8
Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,525 Posts

- Going to hold some till nfp tomorrow and close some @ 1.3300

- If I were to cover then 1.3287

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#15,358
Oct 3, 2019 10:47am Oct 3, 2019 10:47am

Unbiased
| Commercial User | Joined Sep 2019 | 249 Posts

If you have read about my probable scenario of buying CAD as scalp trade, you can understand why I bought CAD.

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If we look at the recent moves of USD/CHF in last two days, USD/CHF always erased fall and made a new high whereas USD lost against major currencies like EUR and JPY. This shows significant weakness in CHF, that's why I bought CAD/CHF instead of selling USD/CAD.

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