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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #81,641
  • Oct 1, 2019 11:31pm Oct 1, 2019 11:31pm
If you have read my previous analysis of USDJPY, you know that I was expecting a move to 107 again.
Yesterday's candle made a bearish engulfing as well as a stop grabber.
ABCD100 coincides with FIB38.2, that is the target.
Sell entry at 30% retracement of recent move down.
Setup will be invalidated if any daily/D1 candle closed above yesterday's high.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #81,642
  • Oct 2, 2019 12:41am Oct 2, 2019 12:41am
Quoting Unbiased
If you have read my previous analysis of USDJPY, you know that I was expecting a move to 107 again. Yesterday's candle made a bearish engulfing as well as a stop grabber. ABCD100 coincides with FIB38.2, that is the target. Sell entry at 30% retracement of recent move down. Setup will be invalidated if any daily/D1 candle closed above yesterday's high. {image}
Fundamental factors that support bearish move:

  1. USD/JPY rally flounders; US data disappoints, global recession fears return
  2. Undermined by worst US manufacturing data in a decade, US yields lurch lower
  3. Fed easing chances increase sharply to 75bps of cuts by Jan 2021
  4. USD downside limited, higher chances of BOJ easing negate Fed expectation
  5. Weak Japan confidence readings may spur BOJ to act

  • #81,643
  • Oct 2, 2019 1:02am Oct 2, 2019 1:02am
Quoting asgcorp
Societe Generale Research discusses the BoJ policy outlook and maintains its bias for short EUR/JPY and short GBP/JPY exposure. "The correlation between yen and the Japanese curve is something we are watching, but does a steeper and higher curve really undermine the currency? And is the BOJ really considering driving short rates much further below zero and causing more pain on the banking sector? In a country where the other side of the BOJ’s bloated balance sheet is a vast pile of excess reserves in the banking system," SocGen notes. "Maybe the...
The recent bond market activity raises many questions in my mind. Im not sure what these central banks are up too.
Japan's recent bond drop,
USD's recent bond drop
Then all these FED officials and even Kuroda's public appearances.........not sure the motives......if any

It's almost as if friday when Poweil speaks, the final boss will have his say on the direction of which way he believes the market should go. As we know the Feds push for 2%, has definitely changed over this past week, but also as traders we know how bad moving averages are at predicting direction. Imagine your the richest man in the world trying to control the direction of a market, using a moving average confined to the average volatility of the weekly timeframes.

Good luck...................for the short term, at least lol
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #81,644
  • Oct 2, 2019 8:44am Oct 2, 2019 8:44am
Quoting MrPresident
Bought around 107.7 stop under 107.5 target 108.5+
stopped out, I think it will go to 107 before a bounce higher
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #81,645
  • Oct 2, 2019 10:39am Oct 2, 2019 10:39am
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} stopped out, I think it will go to 107 before a bounce higher

If XAUUSD is still moving opposite to UJ, looks like quite a bit of room on the 4hr. The daily for UJ shows a nice range twixt 107 and 108.45, but IF the Gold chart is... err um Golden (sic) we could be on our way back to 104.5. A daily close below 106.8 will validate this. I am also watching the Dow which just cleared 500, and I think will go to -700 today. I used to trade it, and on days it ticked past 500 650 and 700 were usually on deck. Only mentioning the Dow because of it's correlation to UJ. 10 more pips and I hit my target for the day. Cross your fingers eyes n toes because I need a nap..
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,646
  • Oct 2, 2019 11:59am Oct 2, 2019 11:59am
Quoting Amir_Forex
{quote} Thanks Market ! ! {image}



TP (107.130) achieved
Patterns have an underlying mathematical structure.
  • #81,647
  • Oct 2, 2019 12:44pm Oct 2, 2019 12:44pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} If XAUUSD is still moving opposite to UJ, looks like quite a bit of room on the 4hr. The daily for UJ shows a nice range twixt 107 and 108.45, but IF the Gold chart is... err um Golden (sic) we could be on our way back to 104.5. A daily close below 106.8 will validate this. I am also watching the Dow which just cleared 500, and I think will go to -700 today. I used to trade it, and on days it ticked past 500 650 and 700 were usually on deck. Only mentioning the Dow because of it's correlation to UJ. 10 more pips and I hit my target for the...
i think that it could be a bear trap again

the U.S/China trade meeting is on October 10th and 11th, which could support USD/JPY if the news is good

how likely is it that Trump will not reach some sort of partial trade deal? does he want to crash the markets and not be re-elected?
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #81,648
  • Oct 2, 2019 1:09pm Oct 2, 2019 1:09pm
I think This Weekly Candle test area R > S 107.200, if it breaks, we can go back to 105.xxx or 104.xxx
if it can hold, we will back to 108.9xx area..
So, Daily Close candle in New York session has to make the decission this week.. maybe NFP can make it clear for us
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  • #81,649
  • Edited 2:43pm Oct 2, 2019 2:32pm | Edited 2:43pm
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} i think that it could be a bear trap again the U.S/China trade meeting is on October 10th and 11th, which could support USD/JPY if the news is good how likely is it that Trump will not reach some sort of partial trade deal? does he want to crash the markets and not be re-elected?

Hit my target so my short closed itself. I agree with you, with one caveat. The first 104 hit was in and out in a day. So we do have time. I do agree however that today won't be it, and the general consensus seems to agree for tomorrow as well. Yalla! 108.45




Edit. Dani22's Weekly chart shows a very clear inverted Head and shoulders (totally forgot about that post I put up weeks ago), so with that, my caveat goes out the window for the foreseable future. His chart may need your aforementioned October meeting to send it up and finish it off.

Love these discussions.


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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,650
  • Oct 2, 2019 2:37pm Oct 2, 2019 2:37pm
Quoting tonyb123
Going down to 106.95 {image}

Looks like a touch during Asian market to get bears excited then andiamo.. upwards
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,651
  • Oct 2, 2019 5:30pm Oct 2, 2019 5:30pm
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  • #81,652
  • Oct 2, 2019 5:34pm Oct 2, 2019 5:34pm
more then 60% means change rate, two days ago was 52%...and usd cad flying, maybe because also to many was shorting..two week ago COT open interest in usdcad fell about 50, whats happening?
  • #81,653
  • Oct 2, 2019 5:42pm Oct 2, 2019 5:42pm
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} i think that it could be a bear trap again the U.S/China trade meeting is on October 10th and 11th, which could support USD/JPY if the news is good how likely is it that Trump will not reach some sort of partial trade deal? does he want to crash the markets and not be re-elected?
isn't election 2020? a lot of time.. fed still got 2%, enough room to fight the war?
  • #81,654
  • Oct 2, 2019 8:05pm Oct 2, 2019 8:05pm
any chance one of my yen bros can draw up a bullish chart
  • #81,655
  • Oct 2, 2019 8:07pm Oct 2, 2019 8:07pm
The USDJPY is stuck in a range between the 107.00 level as support and the 200 day EMA zone as resistance around the 108.46 level. The pair may break in any direction, but to the upside, the 109.00 level may also act as resistance. Below the 107.00 level, its next support could be the 106.00 level.
  • #81,656
  • Edited 9:28pm Oct 2, 2019 8:40pm | Edited 9:28pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Looks like a touch during Asian market to get bears excited then andiamo.. upwards

Hmmmm. One more time before the morning. Looking like a triple crown on this head. If so I am looking for it to move up a bit.. dive down around 3am to fake us out then andiamo!
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,657
  • Oct 2, 2019 11:02pm Oct 2, 2019 11:02pm
Quoting tonyb123
Going down to 106.95 {image}
HIT again!

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1569960313
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MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #81,658
  • Oct 3, 2019 2:30am Oct 3, 2019 2:30am
Quoting Amir_Forex
{quote} TP (107.130) achieved
Amazing! Nice one Amir! do you open new positions today?
  • #81,659
  • Oct 3, 2019 6:44am Oct 3, 2019 6:44am
Quoting Unbiased
If you have read my previous analysis of USDJPY, you know that I was expecting a move to 107 again. Yesterday's candle made a bearish engulfing as well as a stop grabber. ABCD100 coincides with FIB38.2, that is the target. Sell entry at 30% retracement of recent move down. Setup will be invalidated if any daily/D1 candle closed above yesterday's high. {image}
This trade's been accomplished. I'll will be monitoring further development in the pair.
  • #81,660
  • Oct 3, 2019 9:19am Oct 3, 2019 9:19am
Yep... Gold told the tale. Inverted Head and shoulders. Looking for a 106.8 entry. Should retrace for the banks to get in on this dive. Unless the banks just bought in.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
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