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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #341
  • Sep 25, 2019 2:41am Sep 25, 2019 2:41am
I didn't read the threads but I will share an idea which could be executed on demo (only not live) as I am not a certified person to give a financial advice. Choose any 1 major currency such as EURUSD or GBPUSD. The Demo Deposit should be 5000 Dollars. Trade with 0.02 Lot and no Stop Loss. If the trade goes 70 to 120 pips against you, start averaging the sh** out of it. You should make 2% to 5% a month and some months will be floating losses.
Prince M. Golds
  • #342
  • Sep 25, 2019 2:43am Sep 25, 2019 2:43am
Quoting K40
the hardest part is to make your startegy take off ,after that is all expression of your knowladge of the market it self and you can paint the sky with any paint you like , and keep rinse and repeat . dont see it dont take it , dont feel good walk away for 1 or 2 days or even weeks , nobody will said FAGGOT . starter its as easy at it can get and te hardest it can get , make a blog just for your self to see how far you been doing hope these will halp ... {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
This is not really helping. Can you please explain a bit?
Thanks
  • #343
  • Sep 25, 2019 2:46am Sep 25, 2019 2:46am
Quoting princegolds
I didn't read the threads but I will share an idea which could be executed on demo (only not live) as I am not a certified person to give a financial advice. Choose any 1 major currency such as EURUSD or GBPUSD. The Demo Deposit should be 5000 Dollars. Trade with 0.02 Lot and no Stop Loss. If the trade goes 70 to 120 pips against you, start averaging the sh** out of it. You should make 2% to 5% a month and some months will be floating losses.
been there done that. The brexit destroy my acc. The worst new year i ever had.
  • #344
  • Edited 8:45am Sep 25, 2019 6:06am | Edited 8:45am
Quoting ArbitragAcid
The flow of shoe sales in a shoe store is random. No pattern analysis can predict for us whether a given SKU in a given size and colorway will sell at a given time in the future. But we can detect that given styles sell quickly and others do not. The manager can mark down slow sellers and reorder fast sellers and thus manage inventory. The flow for sales of currencies is just as random. No pattern can be detected to tell us when a big customer or group of customers will conduct a transaction or a group of transactions. But we like the shoe store...
Yes, there are patterns in any random time series.

Here is a good analogy to market data:
https://www.piday.org/find-birthday-...h=1&qyear=2019
The "winning" pattern you are looking for is a date.
Good luck. If you had bet on position 984 for date 1/1/19 you would have won ..

I am saying the analogy is similar to trading because it's all about finding patterns in random data ...
  • #345
  • Sep 25, 2019 6:11am Sep 25, 2019 6:11am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} No. That is wrong. People who know the market is not random also know that this is a stupid recommendation, and that you are drawing a conclusion about the forex using unrelated off topic subjects. Please, you've earned a reputation on FF as the guy who shits in the punchbowl so dont let me get in the way of your little show. I'd suggest, however, that everyone skip the punch this guy is serving.
The bar needs to be drastically raised. A high risk activity should not cause harm or injury to innocent bystanders.
In the long term, raising the bar will probably be good for the industry as a whole.
  • #346
  • Sep 25, 2019 7:20am Sep 25, 2019 7:20am
Quoting princegolds
I didn't read the threads but I will share an idea which could be executed on demo (only not live) as I am not a certified person to give a financial advice. Choose any 1 major currency such as EURUSD or GBPUSD. The Demo Deposit should be 5000 Dollars. Trade with 0.02 Lot and no Stop Loss. If the trade goes 70 to 120 pips against you, start averaging the sh** out of it. You should make 2% to 5% a month and some months will be floating losses.

WOW!! Thats genius!! Is that what YOU did on OIL in 2014, when YOU were long around the $100 level and it dropped to $40? what is that? 6000 points drop? Are you still averaging that? Give us a break Mr Prince!

Maybe you went long on the GBPUSD before brexit vote or before scottish referendum and you are still averaging those too?

Thats a recipe to disaster, don't give your ill informed advice to people who might not have a clue to what can happen to their account, under the disguise of "try this on demo"... it will work 2 months, they will do it live and get burned eventually
  • #347
  • Sep 25, 2019 8:50am Sep 25, 2019 8:50am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Yes, there are patterns in any random time series. Here is a good analogy to market data: https://www.piday.org/find-birthday-...h=1&qyear=2019 The "winning" pattern you are looking for is a date. Good luck. If you had bet on position 984 for date 1/1/19 you would have won .. I am saying the analogy is similar to trading because it's all about finding patterns in random data ...
Randomness is the lack of pattern or predictability in events.[1] A random sequence of events, symbols or steps has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random events are by definition unpredictable, but in many cases the frequency of different outcomes over numerous events (or "trials") is predictable.

You can still predict the markets because usually most of the time there is sequences of predictable randomness in the markets.
Your point is right.
I make perfect trades. But terribly manage it
  • #348
  • Sep 25, 2019 9:52am Sep 25, 2019 9:52am
Quoting ForestX
{quote} Randomness is the lack of pattern or predictability in events.[1] A random sequence of events, symbols or steps has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random events...
You are contradicting yourself. Most of you here are just gonna continue being fresh meat for the house.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #349
  • Sep 25, 2019 11:08am Sep 25, 2019 11:08am
Hi, I have not read this topic from the beginning, the following is my opinion about the market:
I spent 4 years technical analysis.
1 year for news and event analysis.
2 years for fundamental analysis, inter-market analysis: stock, bond, currency, commodity market (represented by gold)
I finally realized: it didn't really work .... !!!
The reason: there are random events that often happen that nobody knows in advance, inferred: the market is random.
In the last 3 months, my trading strategy has produced quite good results but there are still some errors that cause the account to stand still, more precisely to be greedy, to make the profit turn into a loss.
I have changed my view of the market, in fact it is: tricks.
practical examples:
before May 5, 2019: before US-China trade talks take place.
Dowjone moves up from January to March, then moves sideways until the end of April 2019.
Bond yield moves horizontally from January to the end of April 2019.
XAUUSD moves up from January to the end of February, moving sideways in March and April 2019.
The currencies when preferred risk such as GBP, AUD, CAD, NZD increased.
currency when risk aversion such as: JPY is falling
Now, I see a strange thing:
1 / dowjone increase, which means that risk concerns increase (demand for investment in production increases), the bond yield will increase (us bond 10y), but I do not see this.
2 / now I see GBPJPY, Dowjone ... increasing from January to March 2019 and moving sideways in March and April 2019.
=> This is the reason I believe that after the US and China talks, the market will turn down, XAU and JPY will increase.
And now, the trick has been started.
1 / I want to sell Stock, GBP, AUD, CAD, NZD, USD to buy XAU and JPY, and buy bonds.
2 / some people have the same idea, they buy XAU and JPY, bond. they buy and hold.
3 / Now, I think: if I buy JPY and push it up, who will be the last buyer ???
- I guess it is XAU or bond, when they see JPY rising too high, greed arises and starts buying. When they started buying the bigboy exited.
This is a psychological game. greed and fear. Bigboy never wants to be the ultimate buyer or seller.
Trading in the zone
  • #350
  • Sep 25, 2019 12:13pm Sep 25, 2019 12:13pm
Quoting hao
Hi, I have not read this topic from the beginning, the following is my opinion about the market: I spent 4 years technical analysis. 1 year for news and event analysis. 2 years for fundamental analysis, inter-market analysis: stock, bond, currency, commodity market (represented by gold) I finally realized: it didn't really work .... !!! The reason: there are random events that often happen that nobody knows in advance, inferred: the market is random. In the last 3 months, my trading strategy has produced quite good results but there are still some...
Learn to trade intraday effectively and you could have made money on all the assets you mentioned, in every period you mentioned, regardless of it going up, down or sideways.
Learn to trade momentum, follow what price is doing now, not what it has done in the past... Use the past as a guide... But remember that the small time frames build the big TFs... For H4 to start moving down M1 has to start moving down first, then M5, then M15 and so on..
Learn where the liquidity is likely to be in the chart..
Trading is not a set and forget business... Trading is a job... It takes time and effort. Trading full time is not an option for most people, and doing it part time or after work is not so easy.
Learn when NOT to trade...

This forum alone has enough material to make anyone a fortune, but a shit load of effort is needed. I am a fan of stochastics (spudfyre material is gold, learn how to do it and you are done for life, but it takes loads and loads of hours practicing, making notes, learning what not to do and so on) and supply and demand (this is probably the best bet for people with little time to trade, go for small risk high return setups from probable liquidity zones on higher tfs).. These are just my favorites but there is lots of gold in this forum.
And sure, trading is probably 70% emotions, learn to trust your setup, take the trades and follow the rules you've set for yourself. Be disciplined, as disciplined as one can be following the rules, forget what your brain is telling you, trade your system as it is designed to be traded.

My 2 cents
  • #351
  • Sep 25, 2019 2:26pm Sep 25, 2019 2:26pm
Fact: forex is a zero-sum game.
For the REALLY skilled 1%, it is completely against their interest to share their whole system. That would mean at least halving all their profits. "At least" is because trading costs. By the way, trading costs is the biggest obstacle along any trader's way.
Pension fund Return This Month: 2.2%
  • #352
  • Sep 25, 2019 2:40pm Sep 25, 2019 2:40pm
Quoting 5astelija
zero-sum game.

I'm not sure if it's zero sum.. central banks print money.....

certainly it's not "negative" sum


" The term negative-sum game describes situations in which the total of gains and losses is less than zero, and the only way for one party to maintain the status quo is to take something from another party."

https://www.britannica.com/topic/negative-sum-game

MM brokers are market participants!
  • #353
  • Edited 5:45pm Sep 25, 2019 2:42pm | Edited 5:45pm
Quoting 5astelija
Fact: forex is a zero-sum game. For the REALLY skilled 1%, it is completely against their interest to share their whole system. That would mean at least halving all their profits. "At least" is because trading costs. By the way, trading costs is the biggest obstacle along any trader's way.

Money is a zero-sum game.... For anyone to make any money on anything it needs to come from someone.
It is a zero-sum game but it is not necessarily someone in the game losing! If I go right now on my bank to make a wire to another country, say my currency is EUR and the wire is USD.... The bank adds a markup to my exchange, say the forex market rate is 1.09, the bank might charge me 1.11.... The bank is "making" 2 cents, if they put that order through the markets right away and say they can get it for 1.0920.... Maybe someone made 0.0020 (20 pips), the bank made 180 pips and the bank's customer paid 200pips more than the intrabanks market rate...
So you see the money was not paid up by any market participant, but by an outsider... This happens millions of times a day everyday, on cross country payments between large companies, credit card payments all over the world, currency exchanges shops throughout the planet and so on... That's what makes forex the largest market in the world... The whole economy is participating in it... The money is not necessarily coming from another trader... It might be coming from the spread Apple paid on the currency exchange of a payment it made to a chinese supplier or whatever other situation you might make up in your mind.
So yes, it is a zero-sum game, as is the whole economy... And it is not necessarily another trader paying for your profits.
  • #354
  • Sep 25, 2019 2:44pm Sep 25, 2019 2:44pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} I'm not sure if it's zero sum.. central banks print money..... certainly it's not "negative" sum " The term negative-sum game describes situations in which the total of gains and losses is less than zero, and the only way for one party to maintain the status quo is to take something from another party." https://www.britannica.com/topic/negative-sum-game MM brokers earn the spread and are market participants.
And that... Capitalism is not a phenomenon very easy to explain... the supply of money is constantly increasing as we produce more and more... otherwise we would only have the 2 first coins that were created way back when money was invented.. LOL
  • #355
  • Sep 25, 2019 3:03pm Sep 25, 2019 3:03pm
Thank you HeyYou and papamax for the insightful replies!
I have actually done a thesis on global currency markets, so I do grasp the very basics.
Central banks print the money, but both sides of the pair do it, the exchange rate doesn't change. So, in the long run, inflation difference does affect the rate.

The global GDP is some $0,2 trillion per day. Compare that to forex's roughly $4 trillion per day, and you see that international trade is hardly the biggest participant here. It has been estimated global trade accounts for some 10% of daily forex turnover. The rest 90% is something else, probably speculative.
I'm not trying to have a quarrel here, by any means, just stating my viewpoint

sources
World GDP: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.cd
Global trade as 10% fraction: research article: Orlov & Äijö, 2015, Benefits of wavelet-based carry trade diversification
Pension fund Return This Month: 2.2%
  • #356
  • Sep 25, 2019 3:20pm Sep 25, 2019 3:20pm
Quoting 5astelija
So, in the long run, inflation difference does affect the rate. n

hmmm MAYBE ?? but consider that speculators often trade short term
  • #357
  • Sep 25, 2019 3:23pm Sep 25, 2019 3:23pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} hmmm MAYBE ?? but speculators trade short term
very true, lol
In the long run, market is adjusted by money level, interest differential, trade balance, fiscal policy and many other factors - it is actually prett well understood. But in the short run, closer to white noise
Pension fund Return This Month: 2.2%
  • #358
  • Sep 25, 2019 4:08pm Sep 25, 2019 4:08pm
Quoting 5astelija
{quote} very true, lol In the long run, market is adjusted by money level, interest differential, trade balance, fiscal policy and many other factors - it is actually prett well understood. But in the short run, closer to white noise
I'm glad that someone with a thesis on global currency markets agrees with me
  • #359
  • Sep 25, 2019 7:50pm Sep 25, 2019 7:50pm
has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

Yes, mine.

3 key major components that made a massive and positive impact on my system & trading:

- watching the whole fx market:
at any time looking at the entire fx market (also with % changes)
- discretionary probability adjudication on MMs and Banks action:
understanding sessions, derivatives, price-levels & and their connection
- trading most likely what's cooking:
understanding & seeing bias (where the music plays)

Every other thing like economic impacts, news impacts, politics (CBs, governments etc) should be learned and understood by now.

Fore these reasons i only trade intraday because the playing field and money route change every day.
  • #360
  • Sep 25, 2019 7:52pm Sep 25, 2019 7:52pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} The bar needs to be drastically raised. A high risk activity should not cause harm or injury to innocent bystanders. In the long term, raising the bar will probably be good for the industry as a whole.
1. I'm gonna guess that you feel qualified to define how high?
2. There are no innocent bystanders harmed when you place a losing trade. Are we to believe that your neighbor feels pain when you take a loss?
3. The industry might disagree with you. By the way, which industry?
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