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Struggle to make a swing trading strategy

  • #21
  • Sep 23, 2019 6:35pm Sep 23, 2019 6:35pm
Quoting Jaricho313
Hi guys. I have decided to create this thread in hope that others will share there experiences and maybe i will learn from them.
Looks like you joined Forex Factory recently ( maybe you have been here for more time but didnt register an account), but hang around for some time you will be suprised in a few months by the pros here with talking charts and all the great things they come up with ( some of them are really creative).
By reading your post i will try to help you a little based on my little experience with trading, first you need to get a renko chart that talks to you and tells you when to buy and when to sell ( just joking ), now you say that you know the majority of price action and analysis and how to confirm entries. And you said this "Its like i need something to add to it, Maybe to narrow down the search for a perfect trade". I did the same you are doing, looked for the perfect trade spend lots of hours looking for it. Do you know what i have realised after lots of hours? Perfect trades, charts that talk and a lot of things you see around here are pure bullshit. A trader needs to have a perfect mindset, because he will need to deal with uncertainty everyday, things will never be perfect. when ever you look at a chart and start thinking this is a perfect entrie or a good entrie, the market will make you pay. So instead of starting to look for other things to add to your trading maybe you should look to improve yourself first. Get a renko chart that tells you, you are being greddy again you fucking idiot, it will help you a lot.
  • #22
  • Sep 23, 2019 10:37pm Sep 23, 2019 10:37pm
Quoting Jaricho313
My main ambition is to become a swing trader, using 4h / 1d time frames.
Totally doable.

I trade EURUSD from the 4H and I don't look at any other time frame. The only indicator I use is a 48 period simple moving average (which is an 8 day average that updates every 4 hours on the 4H chart).

I filter for direction with the most recent break of the 100 day price range (so that has had me taking shorts only since 2018-MAY-15).

I take entries at levels of 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, and 150 pips above the 8 day average with stops at 350 pips above the 8 day average. I take profits at levels of 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, and 150 pips below the average but I always leave some portion on to be taken out by stops groomed along the average. With that, I will stay in a trade if there is a prolonged move to the downside.

I don't pick tops or call bottoms, I don't take hundreds of losses on all the false breakouts, I don't babysit a screen, I simply adjust my orders a couple times a day or less as needed.

I arrived at this after years of whittling at my own ideas. Everyone has to get to their own workable implementation. Stay at it with a small account, keep as little on deposit with your dealer as you can, and use position sizes that will enable you to always survive even the worst disaster and you will eventually find the specific plan that is right for you.

Good luck.
  • #23
  • Sep 24, 2019 12:40am Sep 24, 2019 12:40am
Quoting STrading
{quote} Looks like you joined Forex Factory recently ( maybe you have been here for more time but didnt register an account), but hang around for some time you will be suprised in a few months by the pros here with talking charts and all the great things they come up with ( some of them are really creative). By reading your post i will try to help you a little based on my little experience with trading, first you need to get a renko chart that talks to you and tells you when to buy and when to sell ( just joking ),...
Hi, thanks for your input!
Yes i personally think it is me which is the problem now. I have learnt allot of the skills which could lead me to become a profitable trader, yet i just cant use them to become one. I agree i need to work on myself.
Last night i went to look at the charts and i felt like i was just looking at scribbles ( i think i must have been tired ) but that shows its not my knowledge, its me xD
However i did not understand the last sentance, were you trying to say a renko chart would stop you being greedy or?
Thanks.
  • #24
  • Sep 24, 2019 12:43am Sep 24, 2019 12:43am
Quoting ArbitragAcid
{quote} Totally doable. I trade EURUSD from the 4H and I don't look at any other time frame. The only indicator I use is a 48 period simple moving average (which is an 8 day average that updates every 4 hours on the 4H chart). I filter for direction with the most recent break of the 100 day price range (so that has had me taking shorts only since 2018-MAY-15). I take entries at levels of 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, and 150 pips above the 8 day average with stops at 350 pips above the 8 day average. I take profits at levels of 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, and 150...
Hi thank you for sharing
That sounds like you have got your strategy sorted!
So different to what you hear over the internet too, so well done!
Thanks.
  • #25
  • Sep 24, 2019 1:05pm Sep 24, 2019 1:05pm
Quoting ArbitragAcid
{quote} Totally doable. I trade EURUSD from the 4H and I don't look at any other time frame. The only indicator I use is a 48 period simple moving average (which is an 8 day average that updates every 4 hours on the 4H chart). I filter for direction with the most recent break of the 100 day price range (so that has had me taking shorts only since 2018-MAY-15). I take entries at levels of 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, and 150 pips above the 8 day average with stops at 350 pips above the 8 day average. I take profits at levels of 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, and 150...
Euro is a currency future option seller's darling because of the characteristics you describe. Sell both call and puts with a bracket of 200 pips on both sides and see the rainfall dropping after 3 months. Not earlier than that. 2017 and 2018 saw no need for any adjustment or risk management. 100% t0 150% returns based on margin amount. Now because of the fall in ADR range, the return is 60% to 75%. Four trades in a year. Less stress. 2016 did gave some headaches because of multi-year adjustment happening in that year but needed positions adjustment .
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #26
  • Sep 25, 2019 5:36am Sep 25, 2019 5:36am
Quoting simnz
{quote} Euro is a currency future option seller's darling because of the characteristics you describe. Sell both call and puts with a bracket of 200 pips on both sides and see the rainfall dropping after 3 months. Not earlier than that. 2017 and 2018 saw no need for any adjustment or risk management. 100% t0 150% returns based on margin amount. Now because of the fall in ADR range, the return is 60% to 75%. Four trades in a year. Less stress. 2016 did gave some headaches because of multi-year adjustment happening in that year but needed positions...
I heared of this; it is called butterfly effect (or something similar)...
So that means, that you had a minimum of risk, but an outcome of 60-75 (100-150)%?!
Do you know what the worst case scenario for this strategy is?!
thx.
  • #27
  • Sep 25, 2019 11:45am Sep 25, 2019 11:45am
Quoting Fx-Gamer
{quote} I heared of this; it is called butterfly effect (or something similar)... So that means, that you had a minimum of risk, but an outcome of 60-75 (100-150)%?! Do you know what the worst case scenario for this strategy is?! thx.
It is neither buttefly nor condor.
Option trading is a game of skill. You have to predict direction and target time right.

For instance had a trader expecting a breakout bought weekly option worth 4.5 pips (@$12.50) or $56.25 the trader would have controlled a contract value worth $125,000 or got a leverage of 2,222 per cent and loss capped at $56. 25 .Today the option price went up by 11.5 pips or 550%. Nett profit is 11.5 pips or $143.75
reward 1: 2.55 in just one day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Practice makes a person perfect
  • #28
  • Sep 25, 2019 12:19pm Sep 25, 2019 12:19pm
Quoting havo
{quote} Yes i read the Open/High/Low/Close with renko (with wicks obviously), and even that some principles still are valid with time based charts, there are some important differences that makes them different i use between 3 to 5 pips charts and watch whats going on at the price extremes and just react to what the market its telling me its going to do and thats it (of course there is more to that but im not going to derail this thread)
Why aren’t you using bigger bricks like 20-30 pips ?Also, do you trade renko naked or with some indicators ?
  • #29
  • Sep 25, 2019 1:56pm Sep 25, 2019 1:56pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} Why aren’t you using bigger bricks like 20-30 pips ?Also, do you trade renko naked or with some indicators ?
20 or 30 pips takes waaaayyyy too long to paint !!! thats easily a 2 day or more per brick, thats why i use 3 to 5 pips, thats easily intraday "time frames" i only trade new york session because the rest of the time im either sleeping or just living in general =) and as soon as i get a signal, i place the trade and i turn off the screen and move on, i HATE to be seating and waiting!! i trade naked BUT use some tools that helps me spot highs/lows or recent important prices mostly and thats it.. oh ! and i use line charts too with renko to see the picture clearly sometimes


EDIT: once you know how to read renko for real, you dont need too much of anything else, maybe 1 indicator and some tools and thats it, super clear and consistent trading 100% of the time
  • #30
  • Sep 25, 2019 2:53pm Sep 25, 2019 2:53pm
anybody know good renko builder,I cannot find any that works?
  • #31
  • Sep 29, 2019 6:21am Sep 29, 2019 6:21am
Quoting ficibald
anybody know good renko builder,I cannot find any that works?
So, did you find any?!..
  • #32
  • Oct 1, 2019 7:50pm Oct 1, 2019 7:50pm
Quoting havo
{quote} 20 or 30 pips takes waaaayyyy too long to paint !!! thats easily a 2 day or more per brick, thats why i use 3 to 5 pips, thats easily intraday "time frames" i only trade new york session because the rest of the time im either sleeping or just living in general =) and as soon as i get a signal, i place the trade and i turn off the screen and move on, i HATE to be seating and waiting!! i trade naked BUT use some tools that helps me spot highs/lows or recent important prices mostly and thats it.. oh ! and i use line charts too with renko to...
but if you apply the same principles on bigger boxes will it still work or the small boxes are more profitable ? If yes, will it also work on candlesticks ?
Also do you know anyone that trade similar to you, if not how did you discover yr way of trading.
  • #33
  • Oct 1, 2019 8:09pm Oct 1, 2019 8:09pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} but if you apply the same principles on bigger boxes will it still work or the small boxes are more profitable ?
Oh yea the principles are the same and they work because you are taking OHLC of a specific pip size boxes that are consistent and never change (the simmetry and construction obviously).. thats what renko gives you as an advantage


Quoting metta87
{quote}If yes, will it also work on candlesticks ?
Some principles yes, but not all because of the fundamental differences that the time axis introduces on the classic candlesticks time based charts.. Renko doesnt have this

Quoting metta87
{quote}Also do you know anyone that trade similar to you, if not how did you discover yr way of trading.
Similar to me.. i have seen something vaguely similar from traders that reads the REAL price action (and not the classic "formations" and all of that); with renko? none.. only 1 people that i know personally that trades in a similar way to me and still mix time charts for a gross analisys and use renko to place the trade for more accuracy on WTi (my wife lol)

there is 1 fundamental information with price charts that most people miss because they are focused 100% on a freaking "indicator" and they are IGNORING what the price its screaming at them right in front !! but thats a whole different history
  • #34
  • Oct 2, 2019 7:46pm Oct 2, 2019 7:46pm
Quoting havo
{quote} Similar to me.. i have seen something vaguely similar from traders that reads the REAL price action (and not the classic "formations" and all of that); with renko? none.. only 1 people that i know personally that trades in a similar way to me and still mix time charts for a gross analisys and use renko to place the trade for more accuracy on WTi (my wife lol) there is 1 fundamental information with price charts that most people miss because they are focused 100% on a freaking "indicator" and they are IGNORING what the price its screaming...
Definitely, i can tell you’re looking at rnko a bit different. I also have my own way of looking at it although I have not tested it yet. But it’s refreshing nonetheless to see someone Doing with rneko something other than the usual stuff we see here and on ff. but do you think your way of doing it is the most efficient ? And one thing im curious to know is HOW did you find this way of trading ? Luck-hard work-10.000 hours...? Cause i know lot pf people that’ve been using renko for years yet they re still stuck to the same old technical analysis they learned on candlesticks. Thx
  • #35
  • Oct 3, 2019 11:10pm Oct 3, 2019 11:10pm
I personally find no value in candlestick or price formations, oscillators, price mover theories, etc. I simply get in if the price hits my entry and take profit if it his my exit. I do not care how long it takes to get there, how long it stays there, or why it does so. I don't get paid for anything other than selling higher than my buying.
  • #36
  • Last Post: Oct 16, 2019 10:48pm Oct 16, 2019 10:48pm
Quoting havo
{quote} Yes i read the Open/High/Low/Close with renko (with wicks obviously), and even that some principles still are valid with time based charts, there are some important differences that makes them different i use between 3 to 5 pips charts and watch whats going on at the price extremes and just react to what the market its telling me its going to do and thats it (of course there is more to that but im not going to derail this thread)
hi havo,
if you feel ok could you please elaborate a bit how to read OHLC and get to understand "what market is telling me"? from your other posts you said you are always waiting for a specific pattern take place in proper context, is that some kind of pattern formation? if you are ok with that could you give some hint about it.

moreover it'd be nice if you can tell what renko generator you are using.

thx a lot from a newbie trader
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