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Struggle to make a swing trading strategy

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 21, 2019 12:56pm Sep 21, 2019 12:56pm
Hi guys.
I have decided to create this thread in hope that others will share there experiences and maybe i will learn from them.

Here is my story...
I am now 21 years of age, and started exploring the markets when i turned 18. I currently own a house outright and am in a stable financial condition. The first year i wasn't really taking it seriously just playing around with demo accounts and gave up for a few months. Then i came back and have been serious since. My main ambition is to become a swing trader, using 4h / 1d time frames. I have taken multiple courses, read a few books and spend countless hours every night looking at charts.
I know the majority of price action and analysis and i know how to confirm entries ( Looking into lower time frames for a trend line break or a 1-2-3 formation)

However, all of this time and effort and yet i cannot get a profitable strategy. Its like i need something to add to it. Maybe to narrow down the search for a perfect trade. I try to find a moving average dynamic resistance, yet i back test it and cannot find one which seems to be consistently profitable. I do not believe in having a load of indicators smothering your screen, yet maybe one or two is what my system may be lacking.

I have allot of money saved up which would be a very decent amount for a trading account if i can manage to get over this last hurdle.
Obviously i am still young and have many years to learn ahead of me so no rush, but id like to feel like i was getting somewhere.

Anyway feel free to give advice or tell me how you came across your working strategy. Maybe post links to things which helped you along the way.
Thanks in advance guys!
  • #2
  • Sep 21, 2019 9:15pm Sep 21, 2019 9:15pm
"My main ambition is to become a swing trader, using 4h / 1d time frames"

WHY ?!?!? give yourself a solid/logical reason to support that.. why exactly that timeframe? why "swing" trading?? all you need (or anyone really) its to learn how to read OHLC and look at certain places in the chart and just do what the price its telling you.. thats it

"Its like i need something to add to it" you are trying to pick tops/bottoms reversal and you want "something" that tells you when its that moment !! guess what?!?! it wont happen.. doesnt work that way.. period

i can bet 3 zillion bucks that its a "magic" indicator that WILL tell you when its the right moment (thinking that way its still a noob mentality, no ofense.. you need to pass that stage)


Look pal, all the charts are plotted using the price (doh!) and some other point of measure, be it time or price blocks (like price only chart, renko/range bars and stuff like that for example).. guess what all they have in conmon? OHLC.. some are "easier" to read for our minds because the way it prints the price action or moves; start from scratch with this in mind and go from there

for me the turning point was ditching timebased charts and jump to price charts (renko).. the charts were soooo cleeearrr for me that way that i was reading the market without almost any effort at all and i started to understand the "language" that is OHLC (for the first time i understanded what it was saying lol) and nailing first, the market direction and later, successful trades one after the other
  • #3
  • Sep 22, 2019 3:56am Sep 22, 2019 3:56am
Quoting havo
"My main ambition is to become a swing trader, using 4h / 1d time frames" WHY ?!?!? give yourself a solid/logical reason to support that.. why exactly that timeframe? why "swing" trading?? all you need (or anyone really) its to learn how to read OHLC and look at certain places in the chart and just do what the price its telling you.. thats it "Its like i need something to add to it" you are trying to pick tops/bottoms reversal and you want "something" that tells you when its that moment !! guess what?!?! it wont happen.. doesnt work that way.. period...
Thank you very much for your input. The reason i want to trade on those time frames is because i have a day job and can only check my phone say every few hours if need be.
By saying its like i need something to add to it, i only meant it feels like i need something to confirm the trend is strong.

So in your opinion would you say ditch candlesticks then?
I look and renko and i cant see how that could show you much information. Or how it could show you an entry confirmation.
Yes i agree with you i am still a 'noob' but i guess every trader had to start out like me.
Thanks allot.
  • #4
  • Sep 22, 2019 9:07am Sep 22, 2019 9:07am
Quoting Jaricho313
{quote} Thank you very much for your input. The reason i want to trade on those time frames is because i have a day job and can only check my phone say every few hours if need be.
See? thats a good reason behind that haha


Quoting Jaricho313
{quote}By saying its like i need something to add to it, i only meant it feels like i need something to confirm the trend is strong. So in your opinion would you say ditch candlesticks then?
if you want to "swing" trade you are trying to pick tops/bottoms wich in theory its the start of a trend (hate that word) or a move to the next level.. wich one is it then? you want to "swing" trade or "trend" trade?? think about it, they are different; and NO you dont need to "ditch" candlesticks, what you need to learn its to READ OHLC, all you need its there !!


Quoting Jaricho313
{quote}I look and renko and i cant see how that could show you much information. Or how it could show you an entry confirmation. Yes i agree with you i am still a 'noob' but i guess every trader had to start out like me. Thanks allot.
Again, when you know how to read OHLC, specially with renko, everything gets clear and the entry confirmation comes naturally because the price its literally telling you what it wants to do and where it wants to go next..


I could tell you that you need to read some more, BUT, i know that information about how to trade its mediocre at least, the internet its full of copy/paste of the same crap and myths you hear over and over again; thats biggest obstacle and one of the reasons actual traders lose in this game a lot: applying the wrong info right from the start to their trading methods..

Read the price man.. its all there: OpenHighLowClose, learn what it means and what they are telling you =)
  • #5
  • Sep 22, 2019 9:14am Sep 22, 2019 9:14am
Quoting havo
{quote} See? thats a good reason behind that haha {quote} if you want to "swing" trade you are trying to pick tops/bottoms wich in theory its the start of a trend (hate that word) or a move to the next level.. wich one is it then? you want to "swing" trade or "trend" trade?? think about it, they are different; and NO you dont need to "ditch" candlesticks, what you need to learn its to READ OHLC, all you need its there !! {quote} Again, when you know how to read OHLC, specially with renko, everything gets clear and the entry confirmation comes naturally...
Hi,
From the definition you have gave, it is trend trading i like then
Since i read your post, today all i have been doing is reading up on renko and trying to figure how to get it on a chart properly first! Might take me a few more hours to figure it out.
Once i get it on a chart i will begin to have a look and see if i can notice repeatable things. However i think i need to read a bit about it to get the general idea. I do see how renko makes it more simple.
When you say, read the price, do you mean looking for patterns? The way it pulls back? Or do you mean simply everything?
Thanks
  • #6
  • Edited 11:01am Sep 22, 2019 10:36am | Edited 11:01am
Having a day job and trying to learn how to trade is extremelly difficult you have to practice for many years, because you can spend only few hours on the screen, so you don't have to hurry up for anything yet, take this advice you will save a lot of money.

A good book for trading psychology is a must for a winning trader, just do a search on this forum, or google you will find many.

Also the thing you should give very importance is the micro and macro economics of the pairs you want to trade, if you know very well these last two, they will get you out of false entries at least the half times, buying against a fundamental trend is dangerous.

This is something I have read and will help you:

In the book ‘Outliers: The Story of Success’, Canadian author and journalist Malcolm Gladwell repeatedly mentions a rule called ‘10,000 hour rule’. According to this rule, to achieve world class expertise in any field, one should deliberately practice the required skills for 10,000 hours. 10,000 hours is approximately 417 days. If you spend 3 hours a day, it would take about 10 years to complete the 10,000 hours.

Good luck!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #7
  • Sep 22, 2019 10:45am Sep 22, 2019 10:45am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
Having a day job and try to learn how to trade is extremelly difficult you have to practice for many years, because you can spend only few hours on the screen, so you don't have to hurry up for anything yet, take this advice you will save a lot of money. A good book for trading psychology is a must for a winning trader, just do a search on this forum, or google you will find many. Also the thing you should give very importance is the micro and macro economics of the pairs you want to trade, if you know very well these last two, they will get you...
Hiya.
I have tried searching for places to learn some good fundamental understanding of forex but i never seem to get anywhere with it! Maybe you could suggest somewhere to get me started?
Ah yes the 10,000 hour rule! I have heard this multiple times and i believe it is something to be taken to be true. This is why i do not expect to be even a bit profitable for at least another year, let alone consistently profitable.
Thank you for your input
  • #8
  • Sep 22, 2019 10:59am Sep 22, 2019 10:59am
Quoting Jaricho313
{quote} Hiya. I have tried searching for places to learn some good fundamental understanding of forex but i never seem to get anywhere with it! Maybe you could suggest somewhere to get me started? Ah yes the 10,000 hour rule! I have heard this multiple times and i believe it is something to be taken to be true. This is why i do not expect to be even a bit profitable for at least another year, let alone consistently profitable. Thank you for your input
Welcome, this forum is a good place to start with the news. Above there is a tab "News" from there many websites leave their link and you will find many sources like, Bloomberg and Reuters, just click every link below any new and choose what you like. You also have to study how fundamentals work and this is the tougher, but I am sure you will done it, if you have the strength and patience.

This is a good start: link
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #9
  • Sep 22, 2019 11:09am Sep 22, 2019 11:09am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Welcome, this forum is a good place to start with the news. Above there is a tab "News" from there many websites leave their link and you will find many sources like, Bloomberg and Reuters, just click every link below any new and choose what you like. You also have to study how fundamentals work and this is the tougher, but I am sure you will done it, if you have the strength and patience. This is a good start: link
Ah! Thank you very much! I have always wanted to get to know the fundamental side of things
  • #10
  • Sep 22, 2019 11:51am Sep 22, 2019 11:51am
the best asset you have now is you are young, So you have a lot of time to perfect your trading strategy

the best thing we can help you with is what you looking for (holy grail indicator) do not exist, trust me kid you will save yourself a lot of time just accepting that

right now I think I know whats going on in your head, you want to quit your job and with the profits you make from trading to live in luxury.

while that's possible you need first to understand what is a "reasonable" profitable strategy, a strategy with 60% 50% or 40% monthly profit is pretty much non existence.

and finally always remember, trading is also about losing, in a pure chance system you have 50% profit 50% loss(more or less), what traders do is use their knowledge to make the trade chances 51% profit 49% loss and with time and more knowledge to increase your chances this will build your balance

so my advice is to keep learning and keep making mistakes (hopefully in a demo)
  • #11
  • Sep 22, 2019 3:12pm Sep 22, 2019 3:12pm
Quoting koloss
the best asset you have now is you are young, So you have a lot of time to perfect your trading strategy the best thing we can help you with is what you looking for (holy grail indicator) do not exist, trust me kid you will save yourself a lot of time just accepting that right now I think I know whats going on in your head, you want to quit your job and with the profits you make from trading to live in luxury. while that's possible you need first to understand what is a "reasonable" profitable strategy, a strategy with 60% 50% or 40% monthly profit...
Hello there! Thank you for your input!
In all honesty what is going on in my head is, if i can manage to get profitable within the upcoming years, by the time i get to lets say 40, i could have a good capital to start making some decent profit. I don't really want to quit my job, as i am lucky enough for my family to own a successful business and hope to one day own it. However I would still want to be able to make money trading, and have a fair capital i could fall back on.
If i had +10% a year on average ( which is high a high expectation ) i could create a huge capital for later in life.
Thanks
  • #12
  • Sep 22, 2019 6:52pm Sep 22, 2019 6:52pm
Quoting Jaricho313
{quote} Hi, From the definition you have gave, it is trend trading i like then..
.
Be careful how you act on other people's opinions. That definition of 'swing trading' he gave is incorrect. A swing trader does not pick tops or bottoms. In fact, a good swing trader makes the most of trending markets. You believe you need a renko chart? Far more important is learning and mastering price action and structure-based trading.

Trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #13
  • Sep 22, 2019 7:21pm Sep 22, 2019 7:21pm
[quote=KeenPips;12517624]{quote} Be careful how you act on other people's opinions. That definition of 'swing trading' he gave is incorrect. A swing trader does not pick tops or bottoms. In fact, a good swing trader makes the most of trending markets. You believe you need a renko chart?
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Far more important is learning and mastering price action and structure-based trading. Trade safe. KP

"swings" = a move from a level no the next one.. and for me "trends" doesnt exist, price just move from one level to the next.. as long as you pick a big enough impulse to win more than you risk, every single definition in this trading world doesnt matter.. and i was telling him that FOR ME renko was "better" since it is more clear than timebased candles, you dont "NEED" to ditch something or use XX thing, its all up to you and if its easier to read/comprehend one thing over another one

ALSO this:

Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Far more important is learning and mastering price action and structure-based trading. Trade safe. KP
i told him this several times that he needs to learn how to read OHLC at certain levels/places in the chart, you could elaborate more on that subject and help him out =)
  • #14
  • Sep 22, 2019 10:54pm Sep 22, 2019 10:54pm
Quoting havo
"swings" = a move from a level no the next one.. and for me "trends" doesnt exist, price just move from one level to the next...
It is not about what matters to you but how to help the OP. He talked about swing trading but you misled him. Swing trading means holdng trades for more than one day at the least. And for this purpose swing traders need to use reliable time frames, generally higher time frames like H4 and above. And in terms of strategies, while some use swing points to enter trades or add to their trades in order to ride a trend, rarely do they counter trade. Whenever any swing trader counter trades, he or she does so intraday for a brief profit.

Trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #15
  • Sep 23, 2019 12:48am Sep 23, 2019 12:48am
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Be careful how you act on other people's opinions. That definition of 'swing trading' he gave is incorrect. A swing trader does not pick tops or bottoms. In fact, a good swing trader makes the most of trending markets. You believe you need a renko chart? Far more important is learning and mastering price action and structure-based trading. Trade safe. KP
Hi thanks for your input!
I believe everybody who trades has their own belief of how everything works. Therefore i take in what everybody says and think on all of it.
Also about learning price action and structure based trading, i believe i have a good knowledge of price action however it don't seem to give me an edge, do you have somewhere you would suggest?
  • #16
  • Sep 23, 2019 1:10am Sep 23, 2019 1:10am
Quoting Jaricho313
{quote}...about learning price action and structure based trading, i believe i have a good knowledge of price action however it don't seem to give me an edge, do you have somewhere you would suggest?
Good that you are focussing on price action trading. I never said that it will give you an edge. And no specific system by itself will; something 'holy grail' searchers never know. However, it is key to gaining an edge. There are other factors, which include your trading skills and mindset. You develop them with practice and experience. At any rate, let us not deviate from the theme of your thread.

Trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #17
  • Sep 23, 2019 1:22am Sep 23, 2019 1:22am
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Good that you are focussing on price action trading. I never said that it will give you an edge. And no specific system by itself will; something 'holy grail' searchers never know. However, it is key to gaining an edge. There are other factors, which include your trading skills and mindset. You develop them with practice and experience. At any rate, let us not deviate from the theme of your thread. Trade safe. KP
Thank you very much
  • #18
  • Sep 23, 2019 2:41am Sep 23, 2019 2:41am
Quoting Jaricho313
{quote} Thank you very much
It's a pleasure.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #19
  • Sep 23, 2019 5:33am Sep 23, 2019 5:33am
Quoting havo
{quote} See? thats a good reason behind that haha {quote} if you want to "swing" trade you are trying to pick tops/bottoms wich in theory its the start of a trend (hate that word) or a move to the next level.. wich one is it then? you want to "swing" trade or "trend" trade?? think about it, they are different; and NO you dont need to "ditch" candlesticks, what you need to learn its to READ OHLC, all you need its there !! {quote} Again, when you know how to read OHLC, specially with renko, everything gets clear and the entry confirmation comes naturally...
Hi havo,
thank you for your information.
You say, you are using ohlc with Renko (solely)?!
Which pip steps do you use; Can you please explain it a little...
thanks.
  • #20
  • Sep 23, 2019 9:12am Sep 23, 2019 9:12am
Quoting Fx-Gamer
{quote} Hi havo, thank you for your information. You say, you are using ohlc with Renko (solely)?! Which pip steps do you use; Can you please explain it a little... thanks.
Yes i read the Open/High/Low/Close with renko (with wicks obviously), and even that some principles still are valid with time based charts, there are some important differences that makes them different

i use between 3 to 5 pips charts and watch whats going on at the price extremes and just react to what the market its telling me its going to do and thats it (of course there is more to that but im not going to derail this thread)
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