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Stop Hunting using Sentiment and Market Structure

  • #441
  • Sep 25, 2019 8:53am Sep 25, 2019 8:53am
Looking at USDJPY today - Am I correct in understanding your belief as follows: Buyers used to fill Liquidity Gap until around 107.500 then expect resumption of downtrend? I ask because % buyers is currently lower than your snap shot 11 hour ago, but is that what you'd expect?
i.e. Buyers drawn in (% and bubble increases) as gap fills, towards top of gap even retail become more cautious about buying (% and bubble reduces) then, it's time for the reversal / resumption of higher timeframe trend?
  • #442
  • Sep 25, 2019 9:35am Sep 25, 2019 9:35am
Quoting Pervaz
Hi I'll try this: USDCHF looks like it will fill this gapas the sentiment is >75% Ive put in SL, Tp and entry on hourly chart. Is this a correct reading {image}
USDCHF the target was first set of stops that was taken. Did you end up grabbing them?
  • #443
  • Sep 25, 2019 9:37am Sep 25, 2019 9:37am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} I see that USDJPY has dropped significant from the last week and the same for USDCHF pair.
Yes, dropped straight to market structure and reversed. The key for this trade was USDJPY crossing over the Y axis so we were able to get in it short before most realized it was a short trade and took profit at MS.
  • #444
  • Sep 25, 2019 9:41am Sep 25, 2019 9:41am
Quoting pipmunk
Looking at USDJPY today - Am I correct in understanding your belief as follows: Buyers used to fill Liquidity Gap until around 107.500 then expect resumption of downtrend? I ask because % buyers is currently lower than your snap shot 11 hour ago, but is that what you'd expect? i.e. Buyers drawn in (% and bubble increases) as gap fills, towards top of gap even retail become more cautious about buying (% and bubble reduces) then, it's time for the reversal / resumption of higher timeframe trend?
The LG was completely filled at 107.36.

Structurally if UJ makes a new high here strongly then the Market Structure itself will have been changed.

Have to keep an eye on the sheep positioning and Market Structure here for guidance.

USDCHF is at the border of a strong sell and structurally it has been breached to the downside.
  • #445
  • Sep 25, 2019 2:50pm Sep 25, 2019 2:50pm
Hi Sentifx,
I like your work, I track sentiment and it's change over time as well and get order flow wise a confirmation for trend continuation.
You stated that market structure is quite important for you. Can you elaborate here a bit? Does this mean you look for higher highs and higher lows before taking a trade in the uptrend. Or let's say you don't want to see a new lower low despite of a stop hunt?
Thanks a lot
  • #446
  • Sep 25, 2019 8:21pm Sep 25, 2019 8:21pm
Quoting stef241
Hi Sentifx, I like your work, I track sentiment and it's change over time as well and get order flow wise a confirmation for trend continuation. You stated that market structure is quite important for you. Can you elaborate here a bit? Does this mean you look for higher highs and higher lows before taking a trade in the uptrend. Or let's say you don't want to see a new lower low despite of a stop hunt? Thanks a lot
Thanks for the kind words Stef.

Higher Highs and Higher Lows and vice versa are just 1 aspect of Market Structure. I want to see how Retail is positioning and changing their positioning, then look for Market Structure to guide me on entries and exits.

Does that make sense?
  • #447
  • Edited 9:18pm Sep 26, 2019 7:58pm | Edited 9:18pm
What a profitable week. Had the UJ Short, then the UJ Long, then the AU Short. So many signals, sorry didn't have much time to post here.

A guy was asking about scalping in the Asian session using the tool. For many years I enjoyed scalping the Asian session. I learned to play their games and the easiest way to play is to have a strong directional bias and buy/sell the stops.

Here is how we work a zone of BUYING stops when we have seen retail shift their positions.

Seeing the Sentiment Animations and understanding the signals is so important. It brings the confidence you need to BUY every STOP and turn a profit.

This is the true Essence of Stop Hunting - aligning Sentiment and Market Structure to Buy where the Sheep are Selling and Sell where the Sheep are Buying.

The best price that you can get in is where someone else is wanting to exit. We will gladly take their inventory if we have a belief that they are wrong.

If you want to see the signals that we use over and over again to turn profit using Sentiment Analysis - check out the new guide now:
https://sentifx.com/sentiment-analysis-tool-guide/


Scalping this was too simple. When scalping, it's better to work a zone.

It may have seemed scary for some to Buy the stops, but have you tried it when you had directional conviction? We've been watching the USDJPY flow all week and it just entered the Fresh Buy - crossed down the X axis, and crossing over the Y. That is directional conviction.

This week was Money Money Money on all Time Frames.

Exited +18 pips x leverage.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ_SCALP.PNG Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ_SCALP2.PNG Size: 103 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ_SCALP3.PNG Size: 101 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ_SCALP4.PNG Size: 101 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ_Sentiment.PNG Size: 116 KB
  • #448
  • Sep 27, 2019 6:55am Sep 27, 2019 6:55am
Anyone have a chart showing what happened next in UJ?
  • #449
  • Sep 27, 2019 7:37am Sep 27, 2019 7:37am
Quoting SentiFX
Anyone have a chart showing what happened next in UJ?


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 36 KB
  • #450
  • Sep 27, 2019 8:31am Sep 27, 2019 8:31am
Quoting ricki72
{quote} {image}
That's right, all targets hit.

I was only trying to get a quick scalp (and did).

All of the targets were in high probability locations and all 3 hit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ.JPG Size: 101 KB
  • #451
  • Sep 27, 2019 10:47am Sep 27, 2019 10:47am
Quoting SentiFX
{quote} That's right, all targets hit. I was only trying to get a quick scalp (and did). All of the targets were in high probability locations and all 3 hit. {image}
May I ask you, how did you come with these fibo numbers?
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #452
  • Sep 27, 2019 11:08am Sep 27, 2019 11:08am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} May I ask you, how did you come with these fibo numbers?
Looks like percentage-of-range.
  • #453
  • Sep 27, 2019 11:15am Sep 27, 2019 11:15am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Looks like percentage-of-range.
That's correct. You dont really want to get in less than 30% unless you have a very good reason and any move 80% or more means youre likely wrong so take an early stop. Thinking in percentages of a move is much more useful than fibs.

The 1.27 to 1.618 extensions are the only fibs I care about because its been quantitatively proven to be a limiting zone the majority of the time.
  • #454
  • Sep 27, 2019 11:16am Sep 27, 2019 11:16am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Looks like percentage-of-range.
Interesting, it is missing 0.1.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #455
  • Sep 27, 2019 11:26am Sep 27, 2019 11:26am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Interesting, it is missing 0.1.
By design, that would literally be buying the top or selling the bottom. Never... ever want to do that. 0.2 would also be, just havent ever removed it.
  • #456
  • Sep 27, 2019 11:28am Sep 27, 2019 11:28am
Quoting SentiFX
{quote} By design, that would literally be buying the top or selling the bottom. Never... ever want to do that. 0.2 would also be, just havent ever removed it.
This still working on bigger timeframes as well?
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #457
  • Sep 27, 2019 11:32am Sep 27, 2019 11:32am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} This still working on bigger timeframes as well?
Yes, markets are fractal. Same concepts apply all time frames. Ive used this on 1min charts, 10 sec charts, 15min, 1H, 4H. Concepts of market structure, stop hunting, orderflow, all the same. Sentiment changes guide my direction then I look to the other stuff to get in and get out.
  • #458
  • Sep 28, 2019 7:51am Sep 28, 2019 7:51am
Quoting bfx17
{quote} Hi Rick, Very good post, thanks. I have one question regarding Side A and Side B. What are they, could you please expand? Cheers, Bogdan
Hi bfx17

This is how I see it from my experience in Trading the M1 chart.

Liquidity Gaps are created when price extends with great effort to consume orders within large liquidity pools. We see a long ranging candle but the reality is its full of missed orders and SPACE. Price has just fractured the market in this move so we see a Wide ranging candle A.
Because there is gaps in the market and little orders within candle A, price finds no resistance when it returns to hunt down those missed orders. So it just mopping up orders and therefore is not created any more new gaps. The market is now balanced and we guess all gaps are closed so CANDLE B.
I don't trade Candle B for these reasons.
I see this happen every single night trading the market. I often have limit Buy or Sell Orders missed in this large move to consume a large pool of orders on 4 of the last 5 trading days so I know price hunts DENSITY of orders, not single orders first.
Trading M1 around liquidity pools is the key to understanding price action. Here it has purpose and precision.

Good Luck, don't look left, look up and down.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #459
  • Sep 28, 2019 9:17am Sep 28, 2019 9:17am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi bfx17 This is how I see it from my experience in Trading the M1 chart. Liquidity Gaps are created when price extends with great effort to consume orders within large liquidity pools. We see a long ranging candle but the reality is its full of missed orders and SPACE. Price has just fractured the market in this move so we see a Wide ranging candle A. Because there is gaps in the market and little orders within candle A, price finds no resistance when it returns to hunt down those missed orders. So it just mopping up orders and therefore...
Thank you very much Rick for your answer. I think I understood now what you meant by candles A and B. It makes a lot of sense.

I will go now and check that on the M1 charts.

Thanks again and have a great rest of the weekend.

Cheers,
B
On ignore list of scammers, deceivers and low IQ individuals. Exclusively
  • #460
  • Sep 29, 2019 3:09pm Sep 29, 2019 3:09pm
Sentiment Video Analysis covering last week and upcoming weeks:

Inserted Video
1 trader viewing now