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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #321
  • Sep 23, 2019 11:47am Sep 23, 2019 11:47am
I toyed with different approaches until last year when I settled on what I think fits me the best. Since then I have been able to trade with fairly consistent profitability. We'll just have to see how things go over then next year. Managing loses/drawdowns is my focus at this point.
  • #322
  • Sep 24, 2019 2:57am Sep 24, 2019 2:57am
Quoting 3ndlessHope
{quote} Entry level is much higher for futures Most retail traders dont want trade a $20k account at the beggining when they can choose to trade forex with a $2k account The new micros can be the answer
You can trade the CFDs of those futures if that's the issue and make use of the same volatility, if you look hard enough you will find brokers that will offer you amazing spread on them, as good as on the futures market. I only trade Gold and Indices these days.
  • #323
  • Sep 24, 2019 11:01am Sep 24, 2019 11:01am
Anyone who believes that the markets are not random really really really needs to have a look at these two concepts:

Pareidolia
Apophenia

A little taste:

Gambler's fallacy[edit]
Apophenia is well documented as a rationalization for gambling. Gamblers may imagine that they see patterns in the numbers that appear in lotteries, card games, or roulette wheels.[9] One variation of this is known as the "gambler's fallacy".
  • #324
  • Sep 24, 2019 11:32am Sep 24, 2019 11:32am
Quoting Mingary
Anyone who believes that the markets are not random really really really needs to have a look at these two concepts: Pareidolia Apophenia A little taste: Gambler's fallacy[edit] Apophenia is well documented as a rationalization for gambling. Gamblers may imagine that they see patterns in the numbers that appear in lotteries, card...
It is a bit of a logical fallacy to assume the markets are random because of such concepts. Do you believe bookmaker odds are random due to 'gamblers fallacy'?

To what extent are markets random? All of them (bonds, shares, etc) or just forex? How do central banks go about pegging a currency, or buying back bonds? Surely their participation in markets has no effect, if the markets are indeed random.

You could equally argue that the idea of god and omnipotence suggests humans also have a propensity for ignoring obvious laws and instead consoling themselves instead with 'random' acts of god.
Hypocrite lecteur, mon semblable, mon frere!
  • #325
  • Sep 24, 2019 11:34am Sep 24, 2019 11:34am
Quoting Mingary
Anyone who believes that the markets are not random really really really needs to have a look at these two concepts: Pareidolia Apophenia A little taste: Gambler's fallacy[edit] Apophenia is well documented as a rationalization for gambling. Gamblers may imagine that they see patterns in the numbers that appear in lotteries, card...
I thought the gamblers fallacy was based on the math related to a fair game !

The forex market can hardly with the most perverse mind set be considered a fair game.

Hence. That is were opportunity lies
  • #326
  • Edited 1:02pm Sep 24, 2019 12:41pm | Edited 1:02pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} No one is making money long term in retail forex It's all half lived half lied at best And should not be taken seriously It's entertainment like going to the casino
Making a statement like that is pointless since you can't prove that people make or lose money over the long run trading forex unless they personally share their bank statements with you.

Those who take it as entertainment are usually the ones that complain later on because they fail to treat it like a business. And like any other, there's risk attached to it and factors that are out of your control. Then again, some people make trades under the false assumption that the outcome is under their control when it's really not.

Let's say you have a medium~ business. Do you know what's going to happen tomorrow / next week / month? No, you don't. You might think you know what could happen and make decisions around what usually happens through observation, trial and error. This is the safer choice, since you're not large enough to change people's behaviour on a larger scale. They might lose interest in your products, a competitor might rise, the market for your product might change, and so on. The truth is you have very little control in the grand scheme of things.

In reality you just play your cards around the idea that things might happen a certain way and have a backup plan in case they don't. Forex is no different.

---

And about the "rationalization" thing. I believe this happens because there's some sense of entitlement among some traders like the market owes them something; then the frustration comes and they try to justify why things happened like "oh I got fucked over in this trade because this and that, this is rigged wah wah".
They lost the trade and that's all there is to it.

The market doesn't give two craps about you, but that doesn't mean you can't make money out of it.
  • #327
  • Sep 24, 2019 1:38pm Sep 24, 2019 1:38pm
Quoting tinnitus
{quote} It is a bit of a logical fallacy to assume the markets are random because of such concepts. Do you believe bookmaker odds are random due to 'gamblers fallacy'? To what extent are markets random? All of them (bonds, shares, etc) or just forex? How do central banks go about pegging a currency, or buying back bonds? Surely their participation in markets has no effect, if the markets are indeed random. You could equally argue that the idea of god and omnipotence suggests humans also have a propensity for ignoring obvious laws and instead consoling...
Exactly this.

Forex charts can be described by fat-tailed distributions, definitely a sign of non-randomness. To exploit this property is different story.

Of course people tend to commit apophenia, but that does not somehow prove a fully random market.
  • #328
  • Sep 24, 2019 2:49pm Sep 24, 2019 2:49pm
Quoting Mingary
Anyone who believes that the markets are not random really really really needs to have a look at these two concepts: Pareidolia Apophenia A little taste: Gambler's fallacy[edit] Apophenia is well documented as a rationalization for gambling. Gamblers may imagine that they see patterns in the numbers that appear in lotteries, card...
tell that to Jim Simons.

he has given few interviews over the years, you can find them on youtube
  • #329
  • Sep 24, 2019 3:26pm Sep 24, 2019 3:26pm
have you seen the paradox system here.. the guy have shown his account.. guess what? his success rate is 100% and I totally believe him

I'm also using his system on a bonus account where I didn't pay anything in it.. I might come back and post my results when it looks good
  • #330
  • Sep 24, 2019 4:01pm Sep 24, 2019 4:01pm
Quoting tinnitus
{quote} It is a bit of a logical fallacy to assume the markets are random because of such concepts. Do you believe bookmaker odds are random due to 'gamblers fallacy'? To what extent are markets random? All of them (bonds, shares, etc) or just forex? How do central banks go about pegging a currency, or buying back bonds? Surely their participation in markets has no effect, if the markets are indeed random. You could equally argue that the idea of god and omnipotence suggests humans also have a propensity for ignoring obvious laws and instead consoling...
If you think this world is created based on any principal other than "randomness" you're not a deep thinker.
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #331
  • Sep 24, 2019 4:41pm Sep 24, 2019 4:41pm
Quoting josephcom
{quote} If you think this world is created based on any principal other than "randomness" you're not a deep thinker.
If you think the world is created then you should stay well away from the fire.

And if you think the movement of objects in the world is random you should try playing snooker.
Hypocrite lecteur, mon semblable, mon frere!
  • #332
  • Edited 8:46pm Sep 24, 2019 6:33pm | Edited 8:46pm
Quoting tinnitus
{quote} If you think the world is created then you should stay well away from the fire. And if you think the movement of objects in the world is random you should try playing snooker.
I hope traders read your last post and also think to ask the question

WHY?

There is a purpose to hitting the red ball next, but WHY not the black ball first.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #333
  • Sep 24, 2019 9:07pm Sep 24, 2019 9:07pm
Quoting Mingary
Anyone who believes that the markets are not random really really really needs to have a look at these two concepts: Pareidolia Apophenia A little taste: Gambler's fallacy[edit] Apophenia is well documented as a rationalization for gambling. Gamblers may imagine that they see patterns in the numbers that appear in lotteries, card...
No. That is wrong. People who know the market is not random also know that this is a stupid recommendation, and that you are drawing a conclusion about the forex using unrelated off topic subjects. Please, you've earned a reputation on FF as the guy who shits in the punchbowl so dont let me get in the way of your little show. I'd suggest, however, that everyone skip the punch this guy is serving.
  • #334
  • Sep 24, 2019 9:26pm Sep 24, 2019 9:26pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} No. That is wrong. People who know the market is not random also know that this is a stupid recommendation, and that you are drawing a conclusion about the forex using unrelated off topic subjects. Please, you've earned a reputation on FF as the guy who shits in the punchbowl so dont let me get in the way of your little show. I'd suggest, however, that everyone skip the punch this guy is serving.
No doubt! Great post GE. How is this thread even still going? There are no successful traders anywhere ever...haha what a joke.
  • #335
  • Edited 11:24pm Sep 24, 2019 10:56pm | Edited 11:24pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} https://www.theatlantic.com/business...arkets/381456/ I am really interested in his conversion of tick data into music. Any musicians have any idea how it can be done? I am guessing one constant background continuous sound to represent trend. Then maybe different notes for up and down and maybe the pitch could represent candle length? IDK, I am no musician. Anyone?
Yeah, I suppose something could be done. Change pitch for ticks per second, different sound for up and down tick and I guess you could define trend whether price is above or below a moving average or something basic like that.
Order flow futures trading I know this concept is nothing new, price squawk is one that comes to mind, but that makes sounds based on orders on the DoM.

Inserted Video
  • #336
  • Sep 24, 2019 11:43pm Sep 24, 2019 11:43pm
The flow of shoe sales in a shoe store is random. No pattern analysis can predict for us whether a given SKU in a given size and colorway will sell at a given time in the future. But we can detect that given styles sell quickly and others do not. The manager can mark down slow sellers and reorder fast sellers and thus manage inventory.

The flow for sales of currencies is just as random. No pattern can be detected to tell us when a big customer or group of customers will conduct a transaction or a group of transactions. But we like the shoe store inventory manager can cut our losers short and let our winners run.

So in markets there is randomness, but there are also patterns.
  • #337
  • Sep 25, 2019 12:26am Sep 25, 2019 12:26am
the hardest part is to make your startegy take off ,after that is all expression of your knowladge of the market it self and you can paint the sky with any paint you like , and keep rinse and repeat . dont see it dont take it , dont feel good walk away for 1 or 2 days or even weeks , nobody will said FAGGOT .
starter its as easy at it can get and te hardest it can get , make a blog just for your self to see how far you been doing
hope these will halp ...
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  • #338
  • Sep 25, 2019 1:09am Sep 25, 2019 1:09am
It is not about the money , as a TA it is your Mandatory Obligation to analyze the Market as Best and Vast of your knowledge .
Money , well ... find the one who print it .
  • #339
  • Edited 2:13am Sep 25, 2019 2:01am | Edited 2:13am
I had a brief experience a few years ago in sports betting. Thank God I learned my lesson quick back then. Well I have forex to thank for that, didn't want to dive deep into it cause I Knew I might never get out. The first blown account is the only chance you have to get out of this kind of schemes. Coming to my point, when talking with my buddies who had been betting for years prior to that, they all told me they won on average. I don't think they were lying, some said I used to loose but I corrected my mistakes and now I m killing the betting houses. Everyone thought he was really onto something. We all know the end of this story.

Moral is, most people here have the same pattern: since I use this indicator I win. Since I learned money management I win. Since I learned to focus on my chart I win. Bla bla bla. I m pretty convinced they really believe their own stories until the house shows them who is boss. For me there is no evidence to prove that successful trading is possible. Even past performance could just be the outcome of randomness.

Being no evidence of success, I recommend every person reading this that still have a sound mind to stop trading. Or if you like the casino so much, bet for fun not to chase blur dreams. I hope I save a life with this or a marriage. Take care Y'all.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #340
  • Sep 25, 2019 2:15am Sep 25, 2019 2:15am
Hey ya i feel you but trading the markets is not abt any system or any indicator. The only and most profitable consistent strategy is trading with the trend. To identify that correctly takes the right knowledge and time with practice.
Its my first time posting anything anywhere. If you need further help you can msg me
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