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Stop Hunting using Sentiment and Market Structure

  • #381
  • Sep 20, 2019 9:00am Sep 20, 2019 9:00am
Even though I dont like to trade on Friday or hold the weekend... this trade was too good to pass up.

Sheep piling in on the wrong side... orderflow was down. Market structure sell side.

One of my limit orders was a few pips pips from triggering but at least Im in 3 and can look to scale out now.

This is the exact kind of trade I want to be in!! Taking some off because we just ran some stops.
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  • #382
  • Sep 20, 2019 9:08am Sep 20, 2019 9:08am
I'm in as well, I've been watching AU all week
  • #383
  • Sep 20, 2019 9:55am Sep 20, 2019 9:55am
Quoting SentiFX
Even though I dont like to trade on Friday or hold the weekend... this trade was too good to pass up. Sheep piling in on the wrong side... orderflow was down. Market structure sell side. One of my limit orders was a few pips pips from triggering but at least Im in 3 and can look to scale out now. This is the exact kind of trade I want to be in!! Taking some off because we just ran some stops. {image}
Why you didn't take the long side to fill that gap?
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  • #384
  • Sep 20, 2019 10:34am Sep 20, 2019 10:34am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Why you didn't take the long side to fill that gap? {image}
Because retail on the wrong side and the bubble didnt pop. Which means they are still in pain.

Right now just holding a core and scalping around it sell side. I took some off and added on a pullback.
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  • #385
  • Sep 20, 2019 10:45am Sep 20, 2019 10:45am
This is where I closed out all remaining open AUDUSD positions based on time. Dont want to chance Friday profit taking that may happen in 15 min and prefer not to hold into weekend
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  • #386
  • Sep 20, 2019 6:17pm Sep 20, 2019 6:17pm
Quoting SentiFX
This is where I closed out all remaining open AUDUSD positions based on time. Dont want to chance Friday profit taking that may happen in 15 min and prefer not to hold into weekend {image}
Good trades, sad that I have to view the commercial section to find people who can trade well.
  • #387
  • Sep 20, 2019 9:07pm Sep 20, 2019 9:07pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
{quote} Good trades, sad that I have to view the commercial section to find people who can trade well.
Thank you for the kind words Pip-Miner
  • #388
  • Sep 21, 2019 3:02am Sep 21, 2019 3:02am
It was a good week, with many central banks and thats the reason I don't mention great, because big news may stop a market from falling/advancing and change the sentiment.

AUD finished down like, NZD it followed the same path and gave some pips, because these two pairs are very well correlated each other, congrats to SentiFX nice trades, I was out of these trades, because of Friday and because my focus was on other markets like, EUR which is my favorite.

I also tried to trade the daily options levels I find on many websites every day and they where very helpful on EURUSD which didn't went further the last three days above 1.10500 and it looked easy for me to sell against the sentiment, something that I think we should focus too.

So, I am not so new trading options levels, but I think I will stick to them and incorporate them to my every day trading.

Do you trade these futures levels SentiFX and please, if you have used them with sentiment, or without share some stories, it would be helpful and I would appreciate.

Have a great weekend.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #389
  • Edited 12:56pm Sep 21, 2019 12:44pm | Edited 12:56pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
It was a good week, with many central banks and thats the reason I don't mention great, because big news may stop a market from falling/advancing and change the sentiment. AUD finished down like, NZD it followed the same path and gave some pips, because these two pairs are very well correlated each other, congrats to SentiFX nice trades, I was out of these trades, because of Friday and because my focus was on other markets like, EUR which is my favorite. I also tried to trade the daily options levels I find on many websites every day and they where...
Definitely a great week! Lots of opportunities and I managed to take most of them using the sentiment analysis tools. I believe those who have been following and acting on information in this thread should have profited very well also. Haven't had a losing trade yet in weeks (but statistically that's coming )

Yes AUD / NZD are typically closely correlated due to similar economies. You will also find that USDCHF and USDJPY as safe have currencies also track similar.

Yes I've traded futures and options and we can have a whole discussion on trading all types of styles and markets. After all of my experiences - trials and errors - and experimentation... I can simply say: stick to something that works and has edge.

Can you use these concepts with other markets? Absolutely.

Using Sentiment Analysis (especially change over time) along with Market Structure and Oder Flow - you really don't need much else. I like to double check basket strength and seasonal patterns but I am more than confident with the first 3 in place to take a trade. I prefer to trade opposite the sheep (it's easier and more profitable) and with Market Structure / Order Flow.

I like spot FX because it is very scaleable. Also FX is really just pairs trading (one currency against another) and the patterns and behavior that you can exploit happen time and time again. It's very repeatable. I stick to the majors for a multitude of reasons and there is MORE than enough opportunity every week to bag pips on pips.

You don't need 50 trades a day to make money or 20 markets or 5 different styles. You can have 1 good trade per week and compound a fortune. Following this thread alone you'd be a few hundred pips richer by now.

Our job is to stalk the market for opportunity and strike when the chance of winning is much greater than the chance of losing. Then we hold on and let it play out.

I know it's easier said than done and I'm showing lots of ways to do that here - in real-time with commentary and true results from my live account. Not hindsight.
  • #390
  • Sep 21, 2019 12:48pm Sep 21, 2019 12:48pm
Also - the DEMO is almost ready for launch.

For those of you who sincerely took time to fill out the demo form (at the bottom of our homepage https://sentifx.com) - we are aiming to have it available around market open tomorrow so that you can start seeing the power for yourself and start aligning your trades with the market manipulators.

We will send out an email w/ instructions when it's ready.
  • #391
  • Sep 21, 2019 1:08pm Sep 21, 2019 1:08pm
Quoting SentiFX
Also - the DEMO is almost ready for launch. For those of you who sincerely took time to fill out the demo form (at the bottom of our homepage https://sentifx.com) - we are aiming to have it available around market open tomorrow so that you can start seeing the power for yourself and start aligning your trades with the market manipulators. We will send out an email w/ instructions when it's ready.
Waiting for it and curious to put it at work
  • #392
  • Sep 21, 2019 6:14pm Sep 21, 2019 6:14pm
There are two trades that the stars are aligned to make lots of pips this week.

Who wants to find it, analyze, and draw up some charts of entries / exits / reasons?

P.S. GFX you aren't allowed to participate in this one


Current Sentiment Snapshot:
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  • #393
  • Sep 22, 2019 1:10am Sep 22, 2019 1:10am
Btw a line graph of sentiment change over time would be pretty useful
Necessity knows no law except to conquer
  • #394
  • Edited 9:46am Sep 22, 2019 8:21am | Edited 9:46am
I am questioning the value of any analysis before the market opens as it can always open with a gap of 100 pips or more in any direction which will change everything right from the start.

BUT for AUDUSD: at some point, early into the week, the price will go up to hit seller's stops that are positioned above the double top at 0.6810 and then will drop from there. That is what I will be selling to about 0.6730 area.
  • #395
  • Sep 22, 2019 9:59am Sep 22, 2019 9:59am
Quoting nonameatall
I am questioning the value of any analysis before the market opens as it can always open with a gap of 100 pips or more in any direction which will change everything right from the start. BUT for AUDUSD: at some point, early into the week, the price will go up to hit seller's stops that are positioned above the double top at 0.6810 and then will drop from there. That is what I will be selling to about 0.6730 area.
It is good that you are questioning pre-market analysis. Here is my take:

There is the saying "If you fail to plan, then you plan to fail."

What is the value of planning in advance? The same value that you get when you plan for a holiday/vacation. You can't predict what the weather will be like, or if you will get in a wreck, or if the train will go off the track, or if the plane crashes, or if places will be closed, or if you credit cards will work. Anything can go wrong - in life and trading.

We cannot get caught up in all the worst case scenarios.

But you can have a vision - a goal. You can define your risk. You can outline what is most likely to happen and be prepared for that and adjust based on changes in circumstance.

If you go on vacation and it is going to rain everyday - you adjust accordingly. If you have a plan going into the week and market gaps up or down, you adjust accordingly.

That is the value in being in control of the things you can be in control of .....and embracing change for the things you can not control (like market gaps - or if the market will go in the direction you want it to).
  • #396
  • Sep 22, 2019 10:02am Sep 22, 2019 10:02am
Quoting 3ndlessHope
Btw a line graph of sentiment change over time would be pretty useful
It is a possible addition in the future - but seeing the bubbles animated in real time simply gives all the info that is needed to make trading decisions quickly.
  • #397
  • Sep 22, 2019 10:46am Sep 22, 2019 10:46am
Quoting SentiFX
There are two trades that the stars are aligned to make lots of pips this week. Who wants to find it, analyze, and draw up some charts of entries / exits / reasons? P.S. GFX you aren't allowed to participate in this one Current Sentiment Snapshot: {image}
A silly question, but I need to do this:

Can a bubble from the bottom left move above the midle line of the graph and reach the top without passing the right side of the graph and the opposite for the sell bubbles. What this could mean for a pair?
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #398
  • Sep 22, 2019 12:16pm Sep 22, 2019 12:16pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} A silly question, but I need to do this: Can a bubble from the bottom left move above the midle line of the graph and reach the top without passing the right side of the graph and the opposite for the sell bubbles. What this could mean for a pair?
Not a silly question at all - It would mean that retail isn't as aggressively buying as they were selling initially.
  • #399
  • Sep 22, 2019 12:52pm Sep 22, 2019 12:52pm
Quoting SentiFX
{quote} Not a silly question at all - It would mean that retail isn't as aggressively buying as they were selling initially.
So the price should move up, right!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #400
  • Sep 22, 2019 1:08pm Sep 22, 2019 1:08pm
Quoting SentiFX
There are two trades that the stars are aligned to make lots of pips this week. Who wants to find it, analyze, and draw up some charts of entries / exits / reasons? P.S. GFX you aren't allowed to participate in this one Current Sentiment Snapshot: {image}
@SentiFX
To me AUDUSD is not right now in a good selling area.
I will wait in the highlighted area before starting to look at selling opportunities.
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