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Stop Hunting using Sentiment and Market Structure

  • #361
  • Sep 19, 2019 3:24am Sep 19, 2019 3:24am
Quoting SentiFX
{quote} whenever you see retail loading the boat opposite of that view... you scale into a position in the direction of your view and hold. I can't not emphasize enough how strong of an edge this...
Exactly, it is a great edge and you have all the chances with your side - retail fuel and banks, taking profits and banks that like the supply/demand game to fill their orders.

A good trade was NZDUSD which another one member pointed out some times in this thread, I was watching that trade for around 10 days from the start of its advance, before it started droping.

Fundamentals move the market and then it is the flow, very simple, thanks for the tool!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #362
  • Sep 19, 2019 4:18am Sep 19, 2019 4:18am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Exactly, it is a great edge and you have all the chances with your side - retail fuel and banks, taking profits and banks that like the supply/demand game to fill their orders. A good trade was NZDUSD which another one member pointed out some times in this thread, I was watching that trade for around 10 days from the start of its advance, before it started droping. Fundamentals move the market and then it is the flow, very simple, thanks for the tool!
I’m glad you liked the nzdusd example.
There is one more entry on h4, a trailing sl makes it no risk.
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  • #363
  • Sep 19, 2019 7:43am Sep 19, 2019 7:43am
Quoting Pervaz
Hi Sentifx Can you give answers to the questions you set earlier - how would you define a liquidity gap and identify it Thanks
Hi Pervaz, I covered a lot of it in the blog post: https://sentifx.com/liquidity-gap-fill-trade

I highlighted the liquidity gaps and explained the basic concepts there.

You will have to take time going through those charts so that you can get a deeper understanding.

If you have any specific questions let me know.
  • #364
  • Sep 19, 2019 7:56am Sep 19, 2019 7:56am
Quoting Yoges
Hi SentiFX and other members of this thread, I am not a forex trader because of limitations in my country but trade futures market and I have been trying to understand the concepts you guys have been discussing. I guess same approach is applied to every markets that are traded but I have yet to arrive at a point of clarity. Kindly correct me if I am wrong and guide me for a better understanding. So, we arrive at our biasness of market direction through sentiment analysis and place our trades on the basis of market structure and orderflow. How is...
Yes - you can use this to trade Currencies in futures ( 6E 6A etc.. or other futures markets like GC 'gold' etc).

The advantage that you have in futures in general is that if you know how to read orderflow on the price ladder you can get even another layer of edge applying the methods of Sentiment, Order Flow, Market Structure - and Stop Hunting. You'll actually see the stops in futures without actually seeing the charts based on resting orders clumped together and you can see absorption happening or not happening where you think it should.

The disadvantage of the futures market for most retail is the high leverage to start out with. With spot fx, you can scale your trades however you like. This is great for working a zone. In Futures, doing the same would really put small accounts in a way over leveraged position. Which is pretty much guaranteed disaster sooner or later.

How is sentiment analyzed? We are discussing that throughout this thread and I've already mentioned ways you can use it to get an unfair advantage (that's what edge is all about - if it was 50/50 or less then it would be gambling).

As far as market structure - some basics were covered in the previous mentioned blog post and you'll learn from watching this thread. It's difficult to spell it all out in a single reply.

If you have specific questions as we go over different things, feel free to ask.
  • #365
  • Sep 19, 2019 8:23am Sep 19, 2019 8:23am
Thank You! I trade mostly GC but I do not have the choice to see the price ladder you pointed out because of limited developments in this field in my country.

Well, I have been following this thread closely and tracked prices accordingly. It has been acting like the way it is being explained in this thread, sometimes more or less. However there are times I get really unclear on what is happening or will happen. I know it will take time to understand in better than now.

Please do go with your flow of explaining. I will observe markets and apply what i have learned. I guess there is lot more to come by. Thanks a lot!
  • #366
  • Sep 19, 2019 8:33am Sep 19, 2019 8:33am
Current Sentiment Snapshot - I added Gold in there XAUUSD (not much happening there).
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  • #367
  • Sep 19, 2019 8:36am Sep 19, 2019 8:36am
Quoting SentiFX
Current Sentiment Snapshot - I added Gold in there XAUUSD (not much happening there). {image}
Thanks a lot! Might happen sooner or later!
  • #368
  • Sep 19, 2019 9:17am Sep 19, 2019 9:17am
Quoting Yoges
Thank You! I trade mostly GC but I do not have the choice to see the price ladder you pointed out because of limited developments in this field in my country. Well, I have been following this thread closely and tracked prices accordingly. It has been acting like the way it is being explained in this thread, sometimes more or less. However there are times I get really unclear on what is happening or will happen. I know it will take time to understand in better than now. Please do go with your flow of explaining. I will observe markets and apply what...
Can you get SierraChart in your country? Absolutely best futures trading platform in the world. Affordable and you can customize to suit your style.

I had some awesome order flow charts that I created and used 10 sec charts and volume charts.

Also GC was my favorite market of choice to trade as it adhered very well to rotations (I havent talked about that in this thread and probably wont beyond this).

Thanks for the kind words. Yes it takes time to understand especially if you have to learn it all the hard way like I did.
  • #369
  • Edited 9:37am Sep 19, 2019 9:24am | Edited 9:37am
This is just for those who are curious - circa 2017 (When I very actively traded GC - Gold Futures Contract)

Here are some pics of some custom charts I created and used. As you can see I have a UJ chart in there as well from that time period. I've always had an affinity for the Spot FX market because of the flexibility it provides with scaling.

What you see in these are the resting orders (Limit Orders) as well as the aggressive orders (Market Orders). The change over time in orders is very important.

Order flow - Order flow - Order flow. Countless hours trading and studying. The same ideas can be applied in spot FX even without seeing the order data if you know where to look and the games that are likely played.

That is why we use the sheep positioning and change of their positioning - i.e. how has retail positioning changed over time - to make our decisions.

That is our main source of edge in spot FX. We know where their stops are from both directions - so we hunt them.
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  • #370
  • Sep 19, 2019 9:41am Sep 19, 2019 9:41am
Quoting SentiFX
{quote} Can you get SierraChart in your country? Absolutely best futures trading platform in the world. Affordable and you can customize to suit your style. I had some awesome order flow charts that I created and used 10 sec charts and volume charts. Also GC was my favorite market of choice to trade as it adhered very well to rotations (I havent talked about that in this thread and probably wont beyond this). Thanks for the kind words. Yes it takes time to understand especially if you have to learn it all the hard way like I did.
The problem is with capital outflows from my country. So, paying for services and funding account to brokerages from other countries is near to impossible. I have also gone through quite hard times while trading. Now I am very nimble and taking the process as my learning curve.
  • #371
  • Sep 19, 2019 10:33am Sep 19, 2019 10:33am
Quoting SentiFX
Current Sentiment Snapshot - I added Gold in there XAUUSD (not much happening there). {image}
AUD has a big buble, it may break.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #372
  • Sep 19, 2019 10:52am Sep 19, 2019 10:52am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} AUD has a big buble, it may break.
Mark up a 1H chart, tell me what you see
  • #373
  • Sep 19, 2019 10:58am Sep 19, 2019 10:58am
Quoting SentiFX
{quote} Mark up a 1H chart, tell me what you see
It is taking stops already
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #374
  • Sep 19, 2019 4:57pm Sep 19, 2019 4:57pm
Quoting SentiFX
{quote} Mark up a 1H chart, tell me what you see
Ok. I’ll give this a go. Based on mostly retail buyers, we’re looking to sell next retrace higher which looks like it’ll take Friday to accomplish and into early next week to be sold lower by MM’s
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  • #375
  • Sep 19, 2019 5:04pm Sep 19, 2019 5:04pm
Quoting pipmunk
{quote} Ok. I’ll give this a go. Based on mostly retail buyers, we’re looking to sell next retrace higher which looks like it’ll take Friday to accomplish and into early next week to be sold lower by MM’s {image}
I like your thinking here. When you have a directional bias you sell the rallies if short side and buy the dips on the long side. Banks do the same thing - they specifically say so in their research papers.

Also Sentiment aside, this is great sell side market structure and order flow. So knowing the sheep are on the wrong side of this is all the extra confirmation we need.
  • #376
  • Sep 19, 2019 5:10pm Sep 19, 2019 5:10pm
Quoting pipmunk
{quote} Ok. I’ll give this a go. Based on mostly retail buyers, we’re looking to sell next retrace higher which looks like it’ll take Friday to accomplish and into early next week to be sold lower by MM’s {image}
And it looks like you're a pivot point trader - so one strategy with this bias and knowledge of how the sheep are piling in is this.....

At each Resistance level R1....R5 etc if you don't like taking full heat from getting in too early... you could scale into a sell position using 1:1 or 2:1 or 5:1 leverage (etc) at each R line and then scale out at key levels.

This is working a zone and one of the huge benefits of Spot FX. Many people get caught up in just 1 position thinking linearly of 1 entry, 1 stop, 1 take profit.
  • #377
  • Sep 19, 2019 5:49pm Sep 19, 2019 5:49pm
I
Quoting SentiFX
Current Sentiment Snapshot - I added Gold in there XAUUSD (not much happening there). {image}
Adding dax would be great. I’m now on Audusd and off nzdusd, the circle is small. The nzdusd trade had multiple entires scaled in on a high time frame.
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  • #378
  • Sep 20, 2019 7:03am Sep 20, 2019 7:03am
Quoting ozziedave
Missed the webinar on 19 Sept 2019. Do you have a recording as I am interested in your methodology.
What webinar?
If it happened I missed too
  • #379
  • Sep 20, 2019 7:09am Sep 20, 2019 7:09am
Anyone short AUDUSD?
  • #380
  • Sep 20, 2019 7:57am Sep 20, 2019 7:57am
how about long GA?
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