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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #81,481
  • Sep 19, 2019 2:23pm Sep 19, 2019 2:23pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} there's a thread somewhere at FF with Q&A done by former institutional traders. None of them used fibs in their trading. Kind of says a lot about it, imo.
I agree they are not using the commonly known fibs, but they really are using the correct ones. Which are not fib numbers at all, except 3.
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #81,482
  • Sep 19, 2019 5:46pm Sep 19, 2019 5:46pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} the trouble with that Dow theory is that we got a strong DB on weekly TF + an open gap @ 111. {image}
Each bottom is at support around 104.56 for a third time now (the most recent accumulation phase),but each top has been lower than the one previous. So, to your point, maybe we are not at the distribution phase yet - price could go up to the trend line between 109 and 110. If we are going to look at the weekly however, then this looks like a down trend to me...

...Just how I see it - I could be wrong. I am often.
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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #81,483
  • Sep 19, 2019 6:39pm Sep 19, 2019 6:39pm
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Using the high/low of NFP and FOMC days. Trade at the line with daily candle color.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #81,484
  • Sep 20, 2019 4:43am Sep 20, 2019 4:43am
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/repo-rate

I wonder what will happen to the Forex markets once there is a liquidity freeze. I would assume that over-leveraged positions will blow up.
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #81,485
  • Edited 8:19am Sep 20, 2019 7:40am | Edited 8:19am
Yeesh.. Gandalf the Grey hanging out at 108. We need more orcs! Perhaps a running start off 107.8 will help.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,486
  • Sep 20, 2019 8:22am Sep 20, 2019 8:22am
this is interesting

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...l-says-veteran

Quote
This is a wholly unfair treaty that seeks to colonise China’s economy. If this is accepted, then it is giving up China’s development path

I don't think that the market will like this news since President Trump wants to only negotiate a great deal, which might not be possible

Quote
“It’s almost 2020 and the US is trying to bully China. The US is trying to get what it cannot get in economic competition through a piece of paper … it’s absurd. The Chinese government and the Chinese people will never agree!” Li wrote.
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #81,487
  • Sep 20, 2019 9:17am Sep 20, 2019 9:17am
Quoting MrPresident
this is interesting https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...l-says-veteran {quote} I don't think that the market will like this news since President Trump wants to only negotiate a great deal, which might not be possible {quote}
What's so great about unfair trade with a country that does not reciprocate? China does not even abide by the current agreements.

There is no Great deal here to be made, just one that brings the parties closer to par.
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #81,488
  • Sep 20, 2019 9:56am Sep 20, 2019 9:56am
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} What's so great about unfair trade with a country that does not reciprocate? China does not even abide by the current agreements. There is no Great deal here to be made, just one that brings the parties closer to par.

45 Comment. China stuck on intellectual property issue.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,489
  • Sep 20, 2019 10:31am Sep 20, 2019 10:31am
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These are JPY pairs, see something?

jpy is very strong, dragging all down!

only CHF is fighting it.

EUR and USD are squaring off, JPY is bending them down slowly.

Will likely succeed to bend them lower, but for how long, who knows. probabilities!

looking for a CHFJPY, LONG. It is actually a trade of strong vs strong, not ideal. The pair moves slow, also not ideal but I like the pair! I want to buy and hold it for like 3 months minimum. There are some trades I make not just for money, but to have fun. This CHFJPY, BUY is one! Again, not making sense but I like it.

Again, all this may go very wrong, trading is filled with uncertainty! Just my take!
  • #81,490
  • Sep 20, 2019 12:19pm Sep 20, 2019 12:19pm
Guys, don't short USDJPY just yet. It might be a decent trade later, but it ain't ready yet.
I'm not trading UJ directly, but my plan is going long some UJ crosses early next week.
Take care and have a nice weekend, everyone!
  • #81,491
  • Sep 20, 2019 12:20pm Sep 20, 2019 12:20pm
Quoting danasa
These are JPY pairs, see something? jpy is very strong, dragging all down! only CHF is fighting it. EUR and USD are squaring off, JPY is bending them down slowly. Will likely succeed to bend them lower, but for how long, who knows. probabilities! looking for a CHFJPY, LONG. It is actually a trade of strong vs strong, not ideal. The pair moves slow, also not ideal but I like the pair! I want to buy and hold it for like 3 months minimum. There are some trades I make not just for money, but to have fun. This CHFJPY, BUY is...
My broker shows a negative swap rate for the CHFJPY, both long and short. Perhaps swap rate is not one of your considerations.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #81,492
  • Sep 20, 2019 12:22pm Sep 20, 2019 12:22pm
Quoting MrPresident
this is interesting https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...l-says-veteran {quote} I don't think that the market will like this news since President Trump wants to only negotiate a great deal, which might not be possible {quote}
possible bigger gap over the weekend if Trump starts tweeting again...
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #81,493
  • Sep 20, 2019 12:22pm Sep 20, 2019 12:22pm
not trying to be a total asshat, but if you short UJ now, get ready for decent DD next week.
Wait for a better entry into end of month.
  • #81,494
  • Sep 20, 2019 12:26pm Sep 20, 2019 12:26pm
Quoting asgcorp
not trying to be a total asshat, but if you short UJ now, get ready for decent DD next week. Wait for a better entry into end of month.
markets can change direction quickly, have to be prepared to take profits off the table and then look to either buy or sell again for more profit
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #81,495
  • Sep 20, 2019 12:29pm Sep 20, 2019 12:29pm
true. But I see UJ/gold as inversely correlated atm. I got this in gold and looking to short sell next week @ resistance.
UJ downside likely limited, imo.
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  • #81,496
  • Sep 20, 2019 12:30pm Sep 20, 2019 12:30pm
I could be wrong also. So do what works for you and stick to your own trade plan, always. Just sharing some insights, that's all.
  • #81,497
  • Edited 1:12pm Sep 20, 2019 12:59pm | Edited 1:12pm
Quoting asgcorp
Guys, don't short USDJPY just yet. It might be a decent trade later, but it ain't ready yet. I'm not trading UJ directly, but my plan is going long some UJ crosses early next week. Take care and have a nice weekend, everyone!

I agree. Gap back down to 107.4, and we start this week

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But I'm a noob so..
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,498
  • Sep 20, 2019 1:35pm Sep 20, 2019 1:35pm
Quoting scalperdebes
short 108.23 TP 107.42 50% close 106.880 SL 108.60
SL adjusted to 107.91

have a great weekend everyone!
  • #81,499
  • Sep 20, 2019 2:37pm Sep 20, 2019 2:37pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} My broker shows a negative swap rate for the CHFJPY, both long and short. Perhaps swap rate is not one of your considerations.
nope, not in this case! Just wanna trade this market. The geometry of the chart is too beautiful, that is why. There are markets that looks beautiful, and I just wanna trade it for fun, on reduced risk. Steve Kovna, if I am right, once said he opened a small account to play. maybe i should do same, let my little demons play on that. In a world where everyone is so serious, I found out once I started relaxing and playing with market , of course with rules bent not broken, I make money and settled.
  • #81,500
  • Sep 22, 2019 12:55pm Sep 22, 2019 12:55pm
Quoting asgcorp
not trying to be a total asshat, but if you short UJ now, get ready for decent DD next week. Wait for a better entry into end of month.
gap up at open

pre-market

 

  1. EUR/USD 1.1020
  2. USD/JPY 107.71
  3. GBP/USD 1.2468
  4. USD/CHF 0.9912

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