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Stop Hunting using Sentiment and Market Structure

  • #321
  • Sep 17, 2019 1:28pm Sep 17, 2019 1:28pm
Update: I cancelled my order fill before price got there.

Why?

Because retail sentiment has shifted. The bubble popped and is headed towards the strong Buy Zone.

We don't know what will happen but this got me out of a potentially losing trade before the trade ever took place. I want as many stars as possible to be aligned in my trades.

By having a limit order that wasn't hit and monitoring the change in sentiment - I can make informed decisions about if the trade is still valid before it actually triggers.

A Market order would not have given me that opportunity.

If I wasn't monitoring sentiment then I would also not have the opportunity to cancel if circumstances change like they did.

Here is the current sentiment snapshot.
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  • #322
  • Sep 17, 2019 1:33pm Sep 17, 2019 1:33pm
If you are in the trade at the prior entry point - this could be a good time to re-evaluate without much pain.

This is how I do real time analysis even if in a trade. My number 1 reason for being in a trade is to trade opposite the herd. If that changes, I have to take that into consideration.
  • #323
  • Sep 17, 2019 1:41pm Sep 17, 2019 1:41pm
This is the trade I am definitely MUCH more interested in.

Retail is trying to short USDCHF. Not only is it in the BUY ZONE - but the Market Structure is in an "up-trend".

This one is much more clear to me and much higher probability. It's also a HTF trade.
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  • #324
  • Sep 17, 2019 2:04pm Sep 17, 2019 2:04pm
Does anyone want to give a go at where all the BUYERS stops are? Let's see them charts.
  • #325
  • Sep 17, 2019 2:19pm Sep 17, 2019 2:19pm
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Here's my take on it, but why are we concerned with buyers stops when retail is shorting it?
  • #326
  • Sep 17, 2019 2:29pm Sep 17, 2019 2:29pm
Quoting Profitgrowth
{image} Here's my take on it, but why are we concerned with buyers stops when retail is shorting it?
This is a great question.

The reason you want to be concerned about buyers stops are the same reason you want to be concerned about seller stops.

You need to always be cognizant where the stops are likely to be because MMs, Algos etc purposely create these zones for retail to pool their liquidity so when the time comes - they can grab it either to go long or short.

We want to have reasons for a direction but we NEVER want to be blinded by that reason and brute force the trade with that bias. i.e. I was looking to short EURUSD but the situation changed and so did my short term bias on it.

We want to ALWAYS keep an open mind for both directions.

Those Liquidity Pools are much greater than the Sell side Liquidity pools at this point.
  • #327
  • Sep 17, 2019 2:35pm Sep 17, 2019 2:35pm
Can you also mark up sell side liquidity on a higher timeframe?
  • #328
  • Sep 17, 2019 3:03pm Sep 17, 2019 3:03pm
Huh, yes there is only one pool on sell side now, rest is already taken out. So... that kind of tells me it will need to drop down and pick up those buyer pools to get enough gas before it can rise higher.

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  • #329
  • Sep 17, 2019 3:41pm Sep 17, 2019 3:41pm
Quoting Mtinifx
And UP eurusd goes - back to 1.1050 probably by this afternoon! Unfortunately sentiment changes from day to day even from hour to hour. The market will go where it wants to go I'm afraid!
Well thank you Mtinifx - you were 100% right!!!
  • #330
  • Sep 17, 2019 4:33pm Sep 17, 2019 4:33pm
Quoting Profitgrowth
Huh, yes there is only one pool on sell side now, rest is already taken out. So... that kind of tells me it will need to drop down and pick up those buyer pools to get enough gas before it can rise higher. {image}
So if you wanted to become a Seller, what do you need to see?
  • #331
  • Sep 17, 2019 4:52pm Sep 17, 2019 4:52pm
Quoting SentiFX
{quote} So if you wanted to become a Seller, what do you need to see?
Retail buyer sentiment, so now there isn't any, so we only take buys on any stop hunts lower.
  • #332
  • Sep 17, 2019 5:02pm Sep 17, 2019 5:02pm
true, as a retail "herd" trader I would wait for the next higher low to buy...
  • #333
  • Sep 17, 2019 6:25pm Sep 17, 2019 6:25pm
SentiFX, how about the crosses? Do you have another snapchart for them?
  • #334
  • Sep 17, 2019 6:40pm Sep 17, 2019 6:40pm
Quoting nonameatall
SentiFX, how about the crosses? Do you have another snapchart for them?
The tool does have crosses as well.

We should have a limited demo available by next Sunday.

If you're interested in test driving it - go to sentifx.com - scroll all the way down and fill out the form.
  • #335
  • Sep 18, 2019 1:41am Sep 18, 2019 1:41am
Quoting SentiFX
{quote} The tool does have crosses as well. We should have a limited demo available by next Sunday. If you're interested in test driving it - go to sentifx.com - scroll all the way down and fill out the form.
Thats great, I have completed the form, I hope it is ready soon for a trial.

How many times the sentiment can move from buyers to sellers in a day, week, or month?

P.S. I bought some EURUSD after I saw a change in sentiment, but didn't manage to take too much, just scalped 7 pips, excluding spread and closed, because I saw the market pushing more of sell orders up, but no change in EURUSD's price - exhaustion.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #336
  • Sep 18, 2019 6:33am Sep 18, 2019 6:33am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Thats great, I have completed the form, I hope it is ready soon for a trial. How many times the sentiment can move from buyers to sellers in a day, week, or month? P.S. I bought some EURUSD after I saw a change in sentiment, but didn't manage to take too much, just scalped 7 pips, excluding spread and closed, because I saw the market pushing more of sell orders up, but no change in EURUSD's price - exhaustion.
Retail Sentiment shifts every week. Ocassionally a pair will stay the same for a week or more....

But most retail are trying to scalp or swing trade for a few hours to a few days. The minority is position traders and that can clearly be seen when playing back sentiment.

There are 3 main sentiment setups that I use from the tool alone. One of them is the shift that occurs on Tuesday or Wednesday (sometimes Thursday).
  • #337
  • Sep 18, 2019 6:36am Sep 18, 2019 6:36am
With this information you can scalp or swing trade.

Im sure it could be used for positional trading also but Ive always fluxuated between scalp and swing styles so I can only express expertise with those methods.
  • #338
  • Sep 18, 2019 7:03am Sep 18, 2019 7:03am
Quoting SentiFX
{quote} Retail Sentiment shifts every week. Ocassionally a pair will stay the same for a week or more.... But most retail are trying to scalp or swing trade for a few hours to a few days. The minority is position traders and that can clearly be seen when playing back sentiment. There are 3 main sentiment setups that I use from the tool alone. One of them is the shift that occurs on Tuesday or Wednesday (sometimes Thursday).
I am very interesting in the shift trade I try to get into these trades too when I see a shift in sentiment and it is a very good skill to have, for this I prefer using just the direction of the chart from a bigger view (Daily) example I would trade AUDUSD only down, because it drops. Also Fundamentals like rates and trade wars help very much.

Maybe you could make a blog the next time with your set-up.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #339
  • Sep 18, 2019 12:20pm Sep 18, 2019 12:20pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} I am very interesting in the shift trade I try to get into these trades too when I see a shift in sentiment and it is a very good skill to have, for this I prefer using just the direction of the chart from a bigger view (Daily) example I would trade AUDUSD only down, because it drops. Also Fundamentals like rates and trade wars help very much. Maybe you could make a blog the next time with your set-up.
If I understand what you're saying is that you like to incorporate higher timeframes and fundamentals?

Yes that is very possible. The timeframes are setup to handle monthly, weekly, daily since market open, and specific sessions. This is very powerful.

How do you use it to trade along fundamental lines?

If You have a bias based on fundamental data .... whenever you see retail loading the boat opposite of that view... you scale into a position in the direction of your view and hold.

I can't not emphasize enough how strong of an edge this gives. You have to experience it for yourself.
  • #340
  • Sep 18, 2019 2:14pm Sep 18, 2019 2:14pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} EURUSD short just got triggered at 1.106. Let's see how it will end up.
In the end the trade worked out nicely
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