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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #61
  • Sep 16, 2019 4:17pm Sep 16, 2019 4:17pm
I have seen successful traders,blind can not guide the blind.You have to pay for it.There are courses called BTMM,supply demand,agimat and ICT.They all work but you have to learn it and know the secrets as how to use it properly by a mentor and use the tactics of probability.

Trading cant be 2+2=4,otherwise everyone can be millionair.Dealers are smarter than retail traders and they don't make any strategy or system run successfully for long time,they meant to bring confusion and distrust in any system.
  • #62
  • Sep 16, 2019 4:32pm Sep 16, 2019 4:32pm
Quoting josephcom
OK, it's time for me to ask the big question! For over 3 years, I've been trying to find a long-term successful strategy in Forex, but in vain! When I say 3 years I am talking about something like 5 to 10 hours a day!!! In a way, I've wasted 3 years of my dear life that God has given to me. I am one of the best computer programmers you can see in your life; I'm absolutely good when it comes to mathematics and statistics/probability theories. I have tested hundreds of different strategies (both maniacal and manual). I know all the possible answers...
Hi Josephcom

You will find it hard to see a great curve because many good traders uses multiple accounts and trade a few systems. Generally what worked well last year may not work well this years so as a experienced trader, my Equity grows every year WHEN I run a few strategy's at the same time. A strategy that performs really well this year generally covers another one that is performing poorly.

I believe the best way to become profitable is to run strategy's on EA's because you can't be trading all day and all night. There is a whole Australia based network that can help you break into EA trading if you want to do the work. With your background, you would have EA's running in a few months. If you don't want to run EA's, scalping the market is the best policy because you can jump in, take 5-10 pips and get out, about 30-50 times a night. This method is totally mechanic and works every night without fail.

I drive past Morningside almost every day, let me know if you want me to drop in some time and show you how the mechanics of price action really work.
You would need to have a open mind and throw away your trading manuals where they belong, in the rubbish bin.

Cheers Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #63
  • Sep 16, 2019 5:28pm Sep 16, 2019 5:28pm
Quoting josephcom
has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?
Sure man, I saw a few of them here:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=866901
There were a few sexy equity curves shown there, before it devolved into LDFX vs everyone else with a profitable live account.
So, why you be asking effectively the same question less than a year later?
  • #64
  • Sep 16, 2019 6:06pm Sep 16, 2019 6:06pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Josephcom You will find it hard to see a great curve because many good traders uses multiple accounts and trade a few systems. Generally what worked well last year may not work well this years so as a experienced trader, my Equity grows every year WHEN I run a few strategy's at the same time. A strategy that performs really well this year generally covers another one that is performing poorly. I believe the best way to become profitable is to run strategy's on EA's because you can't be trading all day and all night. There is a whole Australia...
Rick, you are alwaus welcome to keep on driving up the M1 to the Sunny Coast.
Lunch and coffees would be on me and perhaps you already know how open my mind is.
Empty your mind and let the market guide you
  • #65
  • Sep 16, 2019 6:34pm Sep 16, 2019 6:34pm
Quoting RickM
Generally what worked well last year may not work well this years
Hey RickM, quick question


Do profitable edges vanish because market conditions change wildly from year to year? or is it a case of enough people figuring out the edge and then dogpiling into one specific area with obscene amounts of money, inevitably making themselves a juicy candidate for stop hunting?
  • #66
  • Sep 16, 2019 8:08pm Sep 16, 2019 8:08pm
Yeah there are plenty of successful traders out there. Three years is a good start, I'll bet you have a solid foundation to build on. The choice is yours of course but I would stay at it. Your success is likely right around the corner.....
  • #67
  • Sep 16, 2019 8:48pm Sep 16, 2019 8:48pm
Trend is your friend
  • #68
  • Sep 16, 2019 9:05pm Sep 16, 2019 9:05pm
How many strategies have you tried? Have you done any self development on your mind as a trader? That is equally as important as a strategy
  • #69
  • Sep 16, 2019 9:07pm Sep 16, 2019 9:07pm
Quoting Striped
{quote} Hey RickM, quick question Do profitable edges vanish because market conditions change wildly from year to year? or is it a case of enough people figuring out the edge and then dogpiling into one specific area with obscene amounts of money, inevitably making themselves a juicy candidate for stop hunting?
Hi Striped,

Strategy’s are optimised over a three or four year period on purpose during a few different changes in market conditions. The idea is the model must be robust enough to be able to handle these different market conditions and come out in profit at the end of the period. For example let’s look at a reversal trading system on GBPUSD. Over a three year period leading up to the drama Brexit, this pair would have been nicely profitable on say a Bollinger band reversal system. The following year this system system would have lost money during the start of the drama but the following year, its profitable is doing well again.
So five years out of six, it’s a good model but we would have taken a loss on year four.
That is a good result in my books because if we trade 5-6 different models at the same time, a nice trending strategy would have covered the losses from The Bollinger band system and our folio of strategy’s will produce a rise in equity every year.

I believe we need to trade strategies that are proven to be profitable over a period of a few years and just trade them till the expiry date. Accurate back testing is the key or you are trading blind.

Lastly you can also use the MT4 back tester, it actually offers information on your strategy that you will get no will else. While the accuracy of this tester is questionable, you will still learn enough to become profitable in the future.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #70
  • Sep 16, 2019 9:30pm Sep 16, 2019 9:30pm
Quoting Ladd
Trend is your friend
Hi Ladd

THE TREND IS NOT YOUR FRIEND

Its a trap lead by the whole professional trading community to trap retail traders into losing money.

Why would you trade a trend when 80% of the time the market is in a ranging market condition. The market preys on retail traders by creating false breakouts that look real and disguising real breakouts to look like false ones. If you trade the trend, you never know if this breakout is real or not till it’s too late.

No trader is able to pick the correct breakouts with any accuracy period. The odds are stacked against you.

A few traders like myself choose to trade against the breakouts and against the trends with great results every day without any losing trading days.
It just takes practice and knowledge about price mechanics.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #71
  • Sep 16, 2019 9:45pm Sep 16, 2019 9:45pm
In my personal perspective, it's an ongoing battle within yourself. You mature over the years and see the market differently, yet the game remains the same. We make trades instinctively and tend to have emotions over the decisions we make. We tend to look for clues and try to envision the market... Over time you adjust yourself with the trade lots, you actually withdraw profits, yet lose some more. Deep thoughts go through your mind and the battle begins.
Are we hooked? Is this really a ''gig'' we can accomplish?

- The answer is simple yet uncontrollable as you cannot be taught.

Every one of us has the power to adapt and evolve.

The simple answer for the average is to seek advice, in which the advice should come within yourself for you to level up. And make bank.

Cheers
It's always part of a bigger plan
  • #72
  • Sep 16, 2019 10:29pm Sep 16, 2019 10:29pm
What's wrong with the ones posted at https://www.forexfactory.com/trades.php? Some of those accounts are into the 1000% range over more than a year. What level of success is good enough for you? What level of proof? I have to wonder if some of the people who say they have been trading for years and 'never found a successful system' actually found a successful system but demanded too much from it.
"This system occasionally loses and sometimes loses multiple times in a row!!!" SWITCH. Etc.
  • #73
  • Sep 16, 2019 10:40pm Sep 16, 2019 10:40pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Striped, Strategy’s are optimised over a three or four year period on purpose during a few different changes in market conditions. The idea is the model must be robust enough to be able to handle these different market conditions and come out in profit at the end of the period. For example let’s look at a reversal trading system on GBPUSD. Over a three year period leading up to the drama Brexit, this pair would have been nicely profitable on say a Bollinger band reversal system. The following year this system system would have lost money...
Interesting

Thank you for the detailed reply. I think I'm going to spend the afternoon backtesting around that era to see if my strategy was even remotely viable back then.
  • #74
  • Sep 16, 2019 11:02pm Sep 16, 2019 11:02pm
Quoting Striped
{quote} ... I think I'm going to spend the afternoon backtesting ...
Not meaning to be critical over a seemingly small issue, but: If something should be done, then decide you WILL do it, then make it happen.

Success depends on a determined mental attitude.
  • #75
  • Sep 16, 2019 11:10pm Sep 16, 2019 11:10pm
Quoting Striped
{quote} Interesting Thank you for the detailed reply. I think I'm going to spend the afternoon backtesting around that era to see if my strategy was even remotely viable back then.
Hi Striped

If you go back too far, say 2010, your results will be different now. Back then the market was very different. The market since 2012 seems to mirror today’s actions (GBP pairs excepted).

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #76
  • Sep 16, 2019 11:17pm Sep 16, 2019 11:17pm
Quoting josephcom
OK, it's time for me to ask the big question! For over 3 years, I've been trying to find a long-term successful strategy in Forex, but in vain! When I say 3 years I am talking about something like 5 to 10 hours a day!!! In a way, I've wasted 3 years of my dear life that God has given to me. I am one of the best computer programmers you can see in your life; I'm absolutely good when it comes to mathematics and statistics/probability theories. I have tested hundreds of different strategies (both maniacal and manual). I know all the possible answers...
I have not seen or heard of anyone becoming a successful trader in less than 4 years. Not too many make it in less than 5 years unless they are paid to trade OPM and have a manager counting the losses and pulling them out when they are taking too much risk or trading in the wrong way.

Why does everyone think that trading is something easy and you need no experience? People ask me all the time "can you teach me how to trade?" Even my doctor asked me to teach him to be a trader. So I asked him to teach me to be a doctor! He had serious look, then came the aha moment, and he laughed.

Do you know what type a person you are? 3 years is enough time for you to learn what your trading personality is. Now find or create a system that matches your personality. And if you are trading so that you can quit your full time job, I would suggest something easier like flipping houses or starting a niche online business. You have to want to be a trader as trading is not easy and most will fail.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #77
  • Sep 16, 2019 11:26pm Sep 16, 2019 11:26pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Josephcom You will find it hard to see a great curve because many good traders uses multiple accounts and trade a few systems. Generally what worked well last year may not work well this years so as a experienced trader, my Equity grows every year WHEN I run a few strategy's at the same time. A strategy that performs really well this year generally covers another one that is performing poorly. I believe the best way to become profitable is to run strategy's on EA's because you can't be trading all day and all night. There is a whole Australia...
Multiple strategies with multiple accounts in different instruments. It was not until I started doing it that I became successful.

Quite often, my scalping accounts are trading against my long term accounts account day after day.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #78
  • Sep 16, 2019 11:35pm Sep 16, 2019 11:35pm
Maybe you're not capable of trading. It's YOU who's caused the problem.

You have the answer it but you don't know what this mean.Not everybody have the mentality to be a merchant.that's why you work day job
Don't mind me.. i'm crazy
  • #79
  • Sep 16, 2019 11:36pm Sep 16, 2019 11:36pm
Been doing this for about 7 years now, I have a system that has been developed using the ol' noggin, if market ranging... I scalp, if trending... jump on the pullbacks. If I get it wrong I let it ride and eventually the market will swing back and hit the target. I don't use any technical indicators as these are usually misleading and confusing. The only indicator I do use is the contrarian, counter-intuitive indicator, I made using a deck of cards. works best when stoned. Hope this helps.
  • #80
  • Sep 17, 2019 12:03am Sep 17, 2019 12:03am
Quoting josephcom
take a look at the following three charts and guess which currency-pair they are AND which time-frame? Please do it right now and see the attachments.
There are no possible way to guess which currency pair it is and which time frame, from your introduction I can guess that you are and exact person (means everything have to be precise like mathematics or statistics). But in trading there are no 100% sure fire system, even the master they can not say they have found the holy grail.

I myself have been trading for 10 years, and just recently by recently I mean this year I have a manage to find my own strategy and a survival account (hopefully by the end of this Oct). One thing about trading is.. It always change, Imagine it like a Battlefield, situation is always changing in the battlefield. Example: who in earth can predict the rise in oil prices yesterday before the attack (Unless the attacker themself). Even until today, I still make mistakes here and there.

I think your questions should not be what currency pair and the time frame, but rather ask yourself what you do when the market against you ? the reason why a good trader is good because they know how to cut loss and let their profit running. If forex trading is a gambling table, there are no one to force you to gamble, and you can leave anytime you want (either when winning or losing).
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