has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system? | Forex Factory

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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Oct 23, 2019 3:40am Sep 15, 2019 6:23pm | Edited Oct 23, 2019 3:40am
Update 13 Oct 2019: Please, after reading this post (the first post) take a look at this post too (click on the link) to better understand what I mean. Thank you...


OK, it's time for me to ask the big question!

For over 3 years, I've been trying to find a long-term successful strategy in Forex, but in vain! When I say 3 years I am talking about something like 5 to 10 hours a day!!! In a way, I've wasted 3 years of my dear life. I am one of the best computer programmers you can see in your life; I'm absolutely good when it comes to mathematics and statistics/probability theories. I have tested hundreds of different strategies (both mechanical and manual).

I know nearly all the possible answers that you or other members may come up with:

  1. Maybe you're not capable of trading. It's YOU who's caused the problem.
  2. Trading is an art. You can't measure it with computer programs.
  3. You're just another loser looking to find excuses.
  4. I've seen millions of successful strategies on the Internet
  5. This is not the right forum to discuss it. Go somewhere else.
  6. ...

Before I further explain my point, take a look at the following three charts and guess which currency-pair they are AND in which time-frame? Please do it right now and see the attachments.

I will let you know the answer at the end of this post.

One of the most frustrating (I would use a different adjective!) answers I've ever heard is that you're not supposed to ask Forex teachers to see their trades. This is probably the most strange/unfair argument I can imagine. This is not a joke! This is about students precious life. It's their RIGHT to know, beforehand, the path they're stepping into has been ended in success before. Otherwise it's like buying a car by only listening to the seller's words and not actually seeing and driving the car! If the problem is their privacy, they can simply blur/disappear the numbers and show us the equity curve itself.

And now the final part, why showing their results for anything less than 3 years is useless? Because market condition changes all the time. in some years you could win big money only by flipping a coin! For example a given currency-pair could trend for the whole year 2017 in which case even the most ridiculous trend-following strategies would result in some amazing trades. But, this doesn't count. We need to see the results of a strategy AT LEAST FOR THREE YEAR to call it a successful strategy. You don't believe my words? OK, see the next paragraph.

Did you manage to guess which currency pairs AND which time-frame the attached images are showing? Ladies and gentlemen, they are nothing but a series of absolutely random numbers produced by Google Sheet! You can successfully insert Stochastic, RSI, trend lines, Fibonacci etc on it and they all work!!! Look how in some parts you could say "the chart is reacting to Support/Resistance levels"! What does this mean? like I said, even flipping a coin can produce a chain of successful trades, which is why I said we cannot call a strategy/trader successful until we see the results at least for 3 years.

I am not going to be a negative-energy-emitting person ruining your dreams and hopes. All I am saying is IT'S YOUR RIGHT TO KNOW, IT'S YOUR LIFE YOUR SPENDING. I would be more than happy (actually carried away) to see the results of trading a real account and for three years in a row here in this forum in which case I will start to study all the forum's posts word by word, taking notes of them, even if it takes a year or so.

Is there anyone on this forum who is willing to show his/her results? Come on, please give us some hope

WE NEED TO SEE A CURVE (doesn't have to have numbers on it, just a graphical (equity) curve)

Thank you very much.

Attached Images
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #2
  • Sep 15, 2019 7:08pm Sep 15, 2019 7:08pm
My best advice, take what Is left of your time, money and energy and run. Before it goes to 7,10+ years.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #3
  • Sep 15, 2019 7:10pm Sep 15, 2019 7:10pm
1. No one has any obligation to reveal their success or otherwise. Demands to do so are really based in some sort of perverted sense of entitlement to know. You are free to accept or deny anyone's claims. There are managed accounts with publicly published results.
2. Learning to trade is a deeply personal endeavor, painful, frustrating and not done in 2 or 3 years.
3. Three years of "learning" how to trade is nothing. Most professionals with a degree spend a minimum of 4 years obtaining their degree in their chosen profession. The belief that one can open an account with a few hundred bucks while trading a demo on the side to learn how to trade and achieve success is not really offensive but rather more thought of as ridiculous by real traders. They're all just laughing at this forum. Few if any successful traders are going to voluntarily post their method because they don't need to. They make money trading and not selling BS trading methods.
4. Price action is fractal so your question about which pair or time frame is really pre-K in nature.
5. You'll not find anyone willing to post a verifiably profitable trading method here in this forum.
6. Haven't you yet figured out this is just another social media format.
Freedom is not free
  • #4
  • Sep 15, 2019 7:18pm Sep 15, 2019 7:18pm
Quoting josephcom
OK, it's time for me to ask the big question! For over 3 years, I've been trying to find a long-term successful strategy in Forex, but in vain! When I say 3 years I am talking about something like 5 to 10 hours a day!!! In a way, I've wasted 3 years of my dear life that God has given to me. I am one of the best computer programmers you can see in your life; I'm absolutely good when it comes to mathematics and statistics/probability theories. I have tested hundreds of different strategies (both maniacal and manual). I know all the possible answers...
Its 99% random. Finding the times when it isn't is like looking for a niddle in a haystack. There are other better pursuits...
When you see it, BET big.
  • #5
  • Sep 15, 2019 7:22pm Sep 15, 2019 7:22pm
Quoting Abe16
1. No one has any obligation to reveal their success or otherwise. Demands to do so are really based in some sort of perverted sense of entitlement to know. You are free to accept or deny anyone's claims. There are managed accounts with publicly published results. 2. Learning to trade is a deeply personal endeavor, painful, frustrating and not done in 2 or 3 years. 3. Three years of "learning" how to trade is nothing. Most professionals with a degree spend a minimum of 4 years obtaining their degree in their chosen profession. The belief that one...
Like I said, I'm not a bit surprised to receive such an answer.

By the way, I didn't say I'm expecting people reveal their method/strategy. Neither did I say I want to see people's private account size ets. The only thing I need to see is a "curve". Doesn't have to have any numbers in it, just dates.

And thank you for your contribution. If I may, I'd like to kindly request you not to argue with me here in the forum cause I believe others aren't interested. You can PM me and you'll be more than welcome. I appreciate your understanding.
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #6
  • Sep 15, 2019 7:29pm Sep 15, 2019 7:29pm
I am watching probably more then 10 years what you looking for and not find one , which I can lean on , only when I trade by myself and looking on price chart behavior I can see a moment to jump in trade and make some profitable trade .
  • #7
  • Sep 15, 2019 7:37pm Sep 15, 2019 7:37pm
Quoting vladzu
I am watching probably more then 10 years what you looking for and not find one , which I can lean on , only when I trade by myself and looking on price chart behavior I can see a moment to jump in trade and make some profitable trade .
That's a good thing. May I ask for how long you've been doing this? Thank you
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #8
  • Sep 15, 2019 7:42pm Sep 15, 2019 7:42pm
they are a few on forex factory worth looking at
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #9
  • Sep 15, 2019 7:44pm Sep 15, 2019 7:44pm
What have you done in the way of neural net programming under any learning methodology? You appear to have a background good enough to make it work if it can be done.

This is an abstract question since I do not use NN methodology, but as an engineer (retired), I have been very curious about it. I would give that a try if I thought it had a good chance of being profitable.

I understand the comment by vladzu--I have streaks when doing well, which requires staying away from FF.
  • #10
  • Sep 15, 2019 7:44pm Sep 15, 2019 7:44pm
Quoting josephcom
OK, it's time for me to ask the big question! For over 3 years, I've been trying to find a long-term successful strategy in Forex, but in vain! When I say 3 years I am talking about something like 5 to 10 hours a day!!! In a way, I've wasted 3 years of my dear life that God has given to me. I am one of the best computer programmers you can see in your life; I'm absolutely good when it comes to mathematics and statistics/probability theories. I have tested hundreds of different strategies (both maniacal and manual). I know all the possible answers...
I have been in this market for more than 10 years. Have seen profitable accounts. I define an account a profitable one, if at the end of the year, after all cost deductions (including your salary) it shows some profit or at least gets break even.

The accounts I’m talking about don’t use big leverages (less than 5) and mostly trade on fundamentals.

for example, when US fed started to increase the interest rates while almost all other central banks were cutting rates, many of the traders I know, long traded USD, and held it for more than a year. By this not only they receive interest because of financing, also after they close the position, they make a lot of profit as well.

i have to say I have not seen any single day-trader who trades based on news or technical analysis (such a joke) being profitable in a long run, not even one. Long run can be three years in a row as you suggested.
  • #11
  • Sep 15, 2019 7:44pm Sep 15, 2019 7:44pm
Quoting Aussi
they are a few on forex factory worth looking at
That's awesome. Would you share with us their names/profiles?

A warm thank you from Morningside, Brisbane
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #12
  • Sep 15, 2019 7:59pm Sep 15, 2019 7:59pm
Quoting umbrella man
{quote} I have been in this market for more than 10 years. Have seen profitable accounts. I define an account a profitable one, if at the end of the year, after all cost deductions (including your salary) it shows some profit or at least gets break even. The accounts I’m talking about don’t use big leverages (less than 5) and mostly trade on fundamentals. for example, when US fed started to increase interest rates while almost all other central banks were cutting rates, many of the traders I know longer USD, and he’d it for more than a year. By...
Thank you for your contribution. Speaking of fundamental analysis, the only "true" fundamental factor, in my humble opinion, worth considering is interest rate because it provides an arbitrage opportunity for big boys. But here come a bunch of issues:

There are many fundamental indicators leading to a change in Interest Rate (inflation, unemployment, GDP etc). This means each time a new figure is released by Central Banks, you'd have to interpret it in the bigger context and, from my experience, market reaction to these figures are often mixed.

Many times, the moment the interest rate is changed, is the last Higher High/Lower Low that the chart has already made!!! Meaning it's already priced in and you even have no idea when it started!!!

Finally the change in interest rate is not frequent. Once in a blue moon, planets align and a central bank decides on a change.
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #13
  • Sep 15, 2019 8:03pm Sep 15, 2019 8:03pm
Quoting timingchain
What have you done in the way of neural net programming under any learning methodology? You appear to have a background good enough to make it work if it can be done. This is an abstract question since I do not use NN methodology, but as an engineer (retired), I have been very curious about it. I would give that a try if I thought it had a good chance of being profitable. I understand the comment by vladzu--I have streaks when doing well, which requires staying away from FF.
Never involved in NN since I needed something to give the system to optimise! I don't know of any good input yet, do you!!!

Did Fourier analysis though. It was a waste of time too.
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #14
  • Sep 15, 2019 8:12pm Sep 15, 2019 8:12pm
Excellent question, should be more of these! Honest eval of retail traders attempts at this should be out in the open! Too many charlatans claim a rosy path to riches if only you buy their plan for $400 or more, real results should be looked at! (If there are any positive ones I would like to hear them as well!)
  • #15
  • Sep 15, 2019 8:16pm Sep 15, 2019 8:16pm
Quoting josephcom
{quote} That's awesome. Would you share with us their names/profiles? A warm thank you from Morningside, Brisbane
digger1 ced74 are two , yes know it well i used to live on sunshine coast mate before we came to vic to do some gold prospecting
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #16
  • Sep 15, 2019 8:37pm Sep 15, 2019 8:37pm
Quoting Aussi
{quote} digger1 ced74 are two , yes know it well i used to live on sunshine coast mate before we came to vic to do some gold prospecting
Thank you mate for your contribution. And guess what! I may have a job interview in Melbourne soon. You'd be my first Forex mate there ...
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #17
  • Sep 15, 2019 9:14pm Sep 15, 2019 9:14pm
Does this qualify as a successful system?

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/fxc...harger/1744841

what about this one? https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/236802
  • #18
  • Sep 15, 2019 9:21pm Sep 15, 2019 9:21pm
Quoting Aussi
{quote} digger1 ced74 are two , yes know it well i used to live on sunshine coast mate before we came to vic to do some gold prospecting
and if I may add.... mr. Aussi belongs in the same group as well...
  • #19
  • Sep 15, 2019 10:23pm Sep 15, 2019 10:23pm
Quoting josephcom
OK, it's time for me to ask the big question! For over 3 years, I've been trying to find a long-term successful strategy in Forex, but in vain! When I say 3 years I am talking about something like 5 to 10 hours a day!!! In a way, I've wasted 3 years of my dear life that God has given to me. I am one of the best computer programmers you can see in your life; I'm absolutely good when it comes to mathematics and statistics/probability theories. I have tested hundreds of different strategies (both maniacal and manual)...
Based on my experience (5 years) ...no methodology, strategy or a system works in every instance . . . I have never seen anything so consistent either” ─just like what I am using personally... That, I even shared here at FF but it won't gain traction as it depends on the level of understanding from trader-to-trader. Meaning, too difficult to process with a KISS trader mindset ; )─ ...Hence, it will end up just my own system and no one else. And that's perfectly fine to me. ; )─
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #20
  • Sep 15, 2019 10:48pm Sep 15, 2019 10:48pm
v2vboni has it! I have gained tidbits here and there from many touted systems and books and lectures but non of them are going to work for anyone else they way they worked (if they ever really did) for the author. They could not possibly transmit everything that goes on in their brains and have it received in identical manner to anyone else ergo, study, try, experiment and find what works for you. Start and probably stay small in each position, loading the boat usually ends up like the Titanic. Trying to buy a system or even subscribe to any of the bunch of "mentors/educators" out there mining the miners is not the road to success. They are all a bunch of unregulated single shingle hangers cherry picking examples of some catch phrase crossover whatever. Entry/exit rules are one small part, psychology of the trader, capital management and many other tools play critical parts. Don't think you are going to become a brain surgeon by going to a weekend lecture or buying any single book. In my experience it has been caution in this high risk game and determination that are the most important aspects and those reside within the trader, you can't "buy" them!
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