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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #81,401
  • Edited 7:49am Sep 13, 2019 7:38am | Edited 7:49am
Quoting b4rhep
{quote} 108,125 closed on H1 Daily target: 108.50 - Beautiful number for the bulls. Maybe I'm on the wrong side ... H4 - 107,900 {image} {image}
Closed at H4
I bought at 30 because it had an open (now closed) and I will hold up to 108,50.
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  • #81,402
  • Sep 13, 2019 8:11am Sep 13, 2019 8:11am
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} 108.5 is possible today

my target is 109 and now stop is at 108,02 no risk
  • #81,403
  • Sep 13, 2019 8:36am Sep 13, 2019 8:36am
Quoting b4rhep
60 hours, only 2 gaps open. What does that mean? That price will come back to 108,125 in the next few hours. And if it comes strong back to 107,815. We will see Note: if there are any errors, we will fix {image}

huh?
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,404
  • Sep 13, 2019 8:57am Sep 13, 2019 8:57am
Quoting Tekin
{quote} my target is 109 and now stop is at 108,02 no risk

its stopped at be
  • #81,405
  • Sep 13, 2019 9:26am Sep 13, 2019 9:26am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} huh?
Since September 5, all gaps have been closed, with the exception of these 2 in blue.

According to Al Brooks, a good breakout leaves gaps open, as we can see in the UJ Daily. Indicates a strong movement.

In H1, although the trend is strong, 99% were closed. This can help us determine targets and stops.

This last bar of H1 he closed a gap that was open and now goes towards 108.50 without having to "back to close".

And red are indicated important gaps that have been closed.
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  • #81,406
  • Edited 11:11am Sep 13, 2019 10:50am | Edited 11:11am
Quoting b4rhep
{quote} Since September 5, all gaps have been closed, with the exception of these 2 in blue. According to Al Brooks, a good breakout leaves gaps open, as we can see in the UJ Daily. Indicates a strong movement. In H1, although the trend is strong, 99% were closed. This can help us determine targets and stops. This last bar of H1 he closed a gap that was open and now goes towards 108.50 without having to "back to close". And red are indicated important gaps that have been closed. {image}
Chris Pulver uses the same technique and I do too.

I also use the open price of the bar that creates the gap. (bar 2)
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MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #81,407
  • Sep 13, 2019 11:23am Sep 13, 2019 11:23am
Nice

It's just that we're used to the empty gaps. But if we were to draw, it would be like a big bar. That's why Brooks says that any spacing between bar -1 and bar +1 is a "can be closed" gap.
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  • #81,408
  • Sep 13, 2019 11:48am Sep 13, 2019 11:48am
Quoting b4rhep
Nice It's just that we're used to the empty gaps. But if we were to draw, it would be like a big bar. That's why Brooks says that any spacing between bar -1 and bar +1 is a "can be closed" gap. {image} {image}
Right, this is what I was talking about, open of the gap bar. Crappy drawing, lol.
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MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #81,409
  • Sep 13, 2019 11:49am Sep 13, 2019 11:49am
Quoting b4rhep
{quote} Since September 5, all gaps have been closed, with the exception of these 2 in blue. According to Al Brooks, a good breakout leaves gaps open, as we can see in the UJ Daily. Indicates a strong movement. In H1, although the trend is strong, 99% were closed. This can help us determine targets and stops. This last bar of H1 he closed a gap that was open and now goes towards 108.50 without having to "back to close". And red are indicated important gaps that have been closed. {image}

Ahh, ok. I don't see gaps though. Those look like candles to me. Some parabolic, but candles none the less
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,410
  • Sep 13, 2019 10:27pm Sep 13, 2019 10:27pm
The only gap I see is up there around 111.00 on May 6.
  • #81,411
  • Sep 15, 2019 2:04am Sep 15, 2019 2:04am
JPY: BoJ On Hold Next Week; USD/JPY Still Likely To Decline Into 105 Before Year-End - Danske

Danske Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and its expectations around next week's BoJ policy meeting.
"We expect the BoJ to keep its ‘QQE with yield curve control’ policy unchanged at the next monetary policy meeting ending on Thursday, 19 September. The economy is still going strong, which calls for patience considering the limited tools left at the BoJ’s proposal. The global economy is the most important driver of deflationary pressures in Japan. The VAT-hike and global political uncertainty pose risks to the economy and upward pressure on the yen. The probability of further easing has risen," Danske notes.

"USD/JPY has moved up to 108s as expectations have been building for positive outcomes in global fiscal policy, monetary policy, US-China relations and the global industrial cycle. We remain rather cautious of such pricing and expect USD/JPY will continue to stay in a downward drift. We target 105 in 3M and still see substantial potential for going below that target," Danske adds.
  • #81,412
  • Sep 15, 2019 6:08am Sep 15, 2019 6:08am
#USDJPY / Weekly & H4 / Three Ideas
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  • #81,413
  • Sep 15, 2019 3:06pm Sep 15, 2019 3:06pm
What does a rate cut by the federal reserve mean for USD/JPY next week? source

My assessment is that the value of US currency decreases and thus will short the pair.

Am I interpreting that correctly?

I know we usually talk technicals in here, but am trying to follow the news too.
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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #81,414
  • Sep 15, 2019 3:47pm Sep 15, 2019 3:47pm
Quoting warrensapp
What does a rate cut by the federal reserve mean for USD/JPY next week? source My assessment is that the value of US currency decreases and thus will short the pair. Am I interpreting that correctly? I know we usually talk technicals in here, but am trying to follow the news too. {image}
I agree, with one cautionary piece of advice. It may be seen as a stabilizer to the dollar. Also the Yen has been driving this pair recently. Independent of the dollar. So while your logic is sound, there are other factors imho
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,415
  • Sep 15, 2019 4:13pm Sep 15, 2019 4:13pm
  •  chisi
  • | Joined Dec 2014 | Status: Consistency leads to mastery | 53 Posts
Huge gup on the USDJPY..Hope you guys are safe
Experiments All Time Return: -32.4%
  • #81,416
  • Sep 15, 2019 4:59pm Sep 15, 2019 4:59pm
Quoting warrensapp
What does a rate cut by the federal reserve mean for USD/JPY next week? source My assessment is that the value of US currency decreases and thus will short the pair. Am I interpreting that correctly? I know we usually talk technicals in here, but am trying to follow the news too. {image}
Now, do not be hasty, this one is a dicey one! Let's exam the facts not hopes...
1. US Macroeconomic data keeps getting better
2. China looks and act co-operative, too co-operative on converging to this US policy rate day, maybe they are feigning it to lift sentiment so that FED will have an extra reason to NOT cut rate. From all angle, China is buying time with Trump. I nefariously suspect they are keeping their omega strategy for Trumps election time to remove him from office. These if followed, means, equities will linger longer before the predicted/expected/potential decline.
3. Trump has been really insulting FED Chair and his boys, to the extent of calling them "bone heads"
4. FED insist on being data independent, if they follow through, then there will be no rate cut, plus, things got rosier of recent!
5. NZD, AUD are setting up for decline vs dollar, NZD already leading!
6. Gold is due for correction after hitting the previous important high, look at weekly chart, it has started, and I shorted it already in 4 locations. This correction if correct will only happen upon strength of dollar. so if dollar weakens, I will unwind my gold shorts, at least they are all already in paper profits with breakeven stops.

So, I thinking in this perspective, even if FED cut, the dollar is likely to be stronger as Save Haven status along with JPY and CHF.

Just my FA take, but, heck, I read charts for clues after all the FA juggling. I found out knowing the fundy backs my tape reading setups!
  • #81,417
  • Sep 15, 2019 7:13pm Sep 15, 2019 7:13pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} I agree, with one cautionary piece of advice. It may be seen as a stabilizer to the dollar. Also the Yen has been driving this pair recently. Independent of the dollar. So while your logic is sound, there are other factors imho
Quoting danasa
{quote} Now, do not be hasty, this one is a dicey one! Let's exam the facts not hopes... 1. US Macroeconomic data keeps getting better 2. China looks and act co-operative, too co-operative on converging to this US policy rate day, maybe they are feigning it to lift sentiment so that FED will have an extra reason to NOT cut rate. From all angle, China is buying time with Trump. I nefariously suspect they are keeping their omega strategy for Trumps election time to remove him from office. These if followed, means, equities will linger longer before...
I will consider both your points - I am still leaning towards shorting this pair, obviously we will know more after Wed and Thurs.

Thank you for your input.
If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #81,418
  • Edited Sep 16, 2019 8:34am Sep 15, 2019 7:22pm | Edited Sep 16, 2019 8:34am
Weekly closed and opened above near it to pop above the trendline. This appears to be a retest of the trend line.

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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,419
  • Sep 15, 2019 11:25pm Sep 15, 2019 11:25pm
Quoting warrensapp
{quote} {quote} I will consider both your points - I am still leaning towards shorting this pair, obviously we will know more after Wed and Thurs. Thank you for your input.
FA is for grounding not setup. Technically, and order flow wise, this pair is weak. Given nature of currency pair, the strength of two currency matching each other, dollar could be strong or weak and the strength or weakness of Yen screws your short plan, that is for you to determine via VSA or order flow or tape reading; they are all the same thing, demand and supply.

The analysis is my FA opinion. Green pips...
  • #81,420
  • Sep 16, 2019 1:25am Sep 16, 2019 1:25am
it was a good starting of the day. gap might close but i closed trade with +10 pips waiting picture to be clear my 110 target still valid but its about h4 and can take more time as long as price 107,30 i will keep buying dips
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