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Stop Hunting using Sentiment and Market Structure

  • #141
  • Sep 8, 2019 1:57pm Sep 8, 2019 1:57pm
Retail Positioning going into this week.

What do you see?
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  • #142
  • Sep 8, 2019 2:22pm Sep 8, 2019 2:22pm
Quoting SentiFX
Retail Positioning going into this week. What do you see? {image}
I will be looking at price action to sell USDCAD here
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  • #143
  • Sep 8, 2019 3:14pm Sep 8, 2019 3:14pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} I will be looking at price action to sell USDCAD here {image}
Where will you Enter? Exit?
  • #144
  • Sep 8, 2019 3:25pm Sep 8, 2019 3:25pm
hi, I am very much interested in this software.. I know some guys even knows about retail traders stop loss levels tooo,, i know its too much to ask but it will give real advantage to me ,,, making 100% weekly will not be a dream for me ..
  • #145
  • Sep 8, 2019 3:30pm Sep 8, 2019 3:30pm
Quoting SentiFX
{quote} Where will you Enter? Exit?
Enter is H1 supply marked in above picture.
Exit is before H4 demand marked in this picture below
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  • #146
  • Sep 8, 2019 3:55pm Sep 8, 2019 3:55pm
This is how I am trading it - each order LOW Leverage.

Leaving plenty of breathing room for stops and adding to get a better price.

Reasons for the trade:
1. Retail positioned on wrong side
2. Orderflow is to the sell side
3. Market Structure is to the sell side

This is before the market opens - I have no idea what will happen. Market could open gap up, take my orders and stops immediately.

Again any kind of news can change the trade so if Order Flow changes then I'll exit before the stops get hit.

Win/Lose - doesn't matter. Embrace the variance of the edge!

Probabilities of walking away with profit are on my side here.
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  • #147
  • Edited 5:48pm Sep 8, 2019 5:28pm | Edited 5:48pm
I don't scalp as much as I used to, but if you have an understanding how the market works and what is likely to happen - you can play both directions.

Just keep in mind because of the reasons I mentioned above - on a lower time frame like 1M, this is a much lower probability trade - but still trade-able.

For scalping, I like build up pressure because it works the same as on the higher TFs. So triangles, pennants, flags, etc are usually good because it's creating a lot of trapped traders thinking price is going to break out in their direction.

When price finally breaks - positions on the 1M and lower Time Frames are exited pretty quickly and those that aren't get pushed to the Higher Timeframe patterns.

So in this example, if I wanted to scalp long, I'd look for some break upward and then a pullback for entry.

Will this play out at all like this? No idea. Price could just sell off from here and not even hit my limits. It could go up and go to the moon. But if I were scalping - this would be my play.

Just wanted to show that you can make money up and down in the market if you know how to trade. More risk is going long here no matter what Time Frame, but it is possible to trade both directions.

To hone my entry/exit skills - I used to try to play both sides even when I had a directional bias. The against the flow trades were stampeded more often than the with flow trades.
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  • #148
  • Sep 8, 2019 5:32pm Sep 8, 2019 5:32pm
As I was posting that, look how price continues to compress.

Like a spring it should BOOM in one direction.
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  • #149
  • Sep 8, 2019 5:44pm Sep 8, 2019 5:44pm
Even on 1M time frame, Day Traders have their stops at the obvious places.

Short and Long Stops Marked.

Liquidity Building in BOTH directions.

Whichever direction has MORE liquidity (that we can't see like Banks/MMs) will greatly influence short term direction.

Over leveraged retail with 100:1 positions in those areas - providing lot's of liquidity.

Let's see how it plays out.
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  • #150
  • Sep 8, 2019 5:57pm Sep 8, 2019 5:57pm
Where was the most liquidity? Below First Swing (now taken out).

We saw that retail was heavily Long USDCAD, so if you were taking a trade in the triangle and didn't want to wait for the breakout - the High Probability trade was to look for opportunity (top of triangle line) to go short.

The long shot was the trade I would have liked to see happen (mostly because I want my higher time frame limit order to get filled) - but it was low probability as mentioned before and I would HAVE to see some sort of impulse move upward beyond that triangle to get excited. I will leave the limit orders on over night. If I wake up and price has made new lows - I will close them out.

Lesson here: It is possible to trade against flow but you must know what to look for and when to do it. You have to have clear direction and reasons for it.

It is MUCH easier to trade WITH flow - and AGAINST retail - even on the small Time Frames using Price Action for entries and Stops for Exits.
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  • #151
  • Sep 8, 2019 6:05pm Sep 8, 2019 6:05pm
Liquidity Pool #2 Taken.
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  • #152
  • Sep 8, 2019 6:17pm Sep 8, 2019 6:17pm
And Last, what I'd like to see is Shorts that just got on board thinking it's going down now to get stopped out - to fuel price to my short entry.

This sort of PA would also be an against the flow - short term trading ops.

Circled Areas would be trapped Shorts.
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  • #153
  • Sep 8, 2019 6:40pm Sep 8, 2019 6:40pm
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  • #154
  • Sep 8, 2019 6:53pm Sep 8, 2019 6:53pm
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  • #155
  • Sep 8, 2019 8:32pm Sep 8, 2019 8:32pm
Good Evening All.....
Thanks for the Valuable Lessons Sentifx,
Please continue to Teach Sir......

failinforex, may ask where did you get that useful tool at Sir???......
  • #156
  • Sep 8, 2019 8:38pm Sep 8, 2019 8:38pm
As mentioned before, if you had a directional bias - i.e. USDCAD is a Sell because of Sentiment - Higher Time Frame Order Flow - and Market Structure...

You could have sold every stop on the way up - with a 1 Min chart and bought the stops at the bottom.

Using lower leverage you have the ability to work a zone.

This is a repeatable phenomenon that you can exploit at whatever time frame that you choose.

Full Disclosure: I didn't take these trades - just watching. I'm swing trading this from a Higher Time Frame. But if I were to scalp under these conditions - the above is a solid way to trade with high probability.
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  • #157
  • Sep 9, 2019 3:24am Sep 9, 2019 3:24am
Quoting SentiFX
This is how I am trading it - each order LOW Leverage. Leaving plenty of breathing room for stops and adding to get a better price. Reasons for the trade: 1. Retail positioned on wrong side 2. Orderflow is to the sell side 3. Market Structure is to the sell side This is before the market opens - I have no idea what will happen. Market could open gap up, take my orders and stops immediately. Again any kind of news can change the trade so if Order Flow changes then I'll exit before the stops get hit. Win/Lose - doesn't matter. Embrace the variance...
Great strategy, limit orders are the best option from my trading experience, they give you bigger chances for profit, because they create more space for better risk management, but as you have mentioned the price may never fill your orders and miss your chance/s, is here a line in the sand, would you trade with any other way (sell stops) and why if?
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #158
  • Sep 9, 2019 4:43am Sep 9, 2019 4:43am
Quoting SentiFX
If you've traded the markets for any amount of time, you will likely feel like someone is out there hunting your stops. You may feel like your trades are constantly being targeted. But are your stops really being hunted? By who? Why does this seem to keep happening only fores against you the market to go in the direction you originally intended? You hear that 90-95% of retail traders fail, but have you asked why? Is there something about the way that retail traders think that is causing consistent losses over time? I believe so. Is it possible to...
Yea! Thanks!! Really in that fix. That kind of scenerio where you dont want to have a tight stop because of being stopped out quickly after which price goes your initial intention, in contrast to having a wider stop with the intention of not to be stopped out but you kinda screwing up your Risk:Reward and id the trade finally goes against you, you've lost a lot.
  • #159
  • Sep 9, 2019 10:49am Sep 9, 2019 10:49am
Good Day Traders,

Closed open orders for USDCAD - price continued to move south. (Surprise surprise).

I couldn't get in at those Retail levels - it went against the way that I trade. I prefer to enter wholesale. Less risk - more reward.

I placed the orders..... They didn't get filled... and Price keeps moving south (as per-determined before market open Sunday).

That particular trade is off the table for me right now. Looking for the next trade.
  • #160
  • Sep 9, 2019 11:54am Sep 9, 2019 11:54am
Quoting SentiFX
Good Day Traders, Closed open orders for USDCAD - price continued to move south. (Surprise surprise). I couldn't get in at those Retail levels - it went against the way that I trade. I prefer to enter wholesale. Less risk - more reward. I placed the orders..... They didn't get filled... and Price keeps moving south (as per-determined before market open Sunday). That particular trade is off the table for me right now. Looking for the next trade.
Anyone that could trade NFP's at Friday should have made a good amount of pips that time, I opened a demo trade just to watch how the price will behave and it moved +19 pips in my side and now it is near my entry again.
Anyway when someone is able to day trade using correlation can see that AUDUSD and NZD moved south as they are very opposite correlated with USDCAD. Also the sellers of the last two pairs could have wait for a better entry.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
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