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Stop Hunting using Sentiment and Market Structure

  • #121
  • Sep 6, 2019 5:51pm Sep 6, 2019 5:51pm
Quoting SentiFX
If there is enough interest, I'll put together a weekly animation of how sentiment changed from Sunday to today. Let me know if interested.
Hi Sentifx

I'll be waiting for it.

Thank you
  • #122
  • Sep 7, 2019 12:07am Sep 7, 2019 12:07am
Quoting SentiFX
If there is enough interest, I'll put together a weekly animation of how sentiment changed from Sunday to today. Let me know if interested.
Yes please
  • #123
  • Sep 7, 2019 12:11am Sep 7, 2019 12:11am
Quoting SentiFX
If there is enough interest, I'll put together a weekly animation of how sentiment changed from Sunday to today. Let me know if interested.
I am interested, but it would be better if you posted a day to day image for the past week, I find these GIFS heavy.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #124
  • Sep 7, 2019 2:22pm Sep 7, 2019 2:22pm
Quoting SentiFX
If there is enough interest, I'll put together a weekly animation of how sentiment changed from Sunday to today. Let me know if interested.
It would be nice to see that
  • #125
  • Sep 7, 2019 7:48pm Sep 7, 2019 7:48pm
Good evening traders, the ones who responded and the 5 who liked the idea.. I'll DM you the playback tomorrow before the market opens.

Those who participate in this thread will benefit.
  • #126
  • Sep 7, 2019 8:04pm Sep 7, 2019 8:04pm
Hi Sentifx.....I just joined because of you Bud

I'm interested in your opinions
  • #127
  • Sep 7, 2019 8:46pm Sep 7, 2019 8:46pm
Quoting SentiFX
Good evening traders, the ones who responded and the 5 who liked the idea.. I'll DM you the playback tomorrow before the market opens. Those who participate in this thread will benefit.
Count me in!
  • #128
  • Sep 8, 2019 4:05am Sep 8, 2019 4:05am
Quoting Richard Ong
Hi SentiFX Can you share with us where can i get the sentimental data. Thank a lot.
I think SentiFX and Djamal (aka FractalFreak) are using the same data that is already available to us - that is price. So if that is the case their custom made systems are based on Price Action.

I am currently studying the RSI and SMA for the Sentiments purpose. Perhaps when you started trading you used the standard indicators and you found yourself trapped at many times (and stopped out) and then later the price would go your way. Have a look at the attached image and think about it (indicators on the EURUSD hourly chart: 14 RSI, 50 SMA and Pitchfork) - please note this is just an after the fact example or illustration.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1 (2019-09-08).png Size: 74 KB
  • #129
  • Sep 8, 2019 4:12am Sep 8, 2019 4:12am
Quoting Pumi
{quote} I think SentiFX and Djamal (aka FractalFreak) are using the same data that is already available to us - that is price. So if that is the case their custom made systems are based on Price Action. I am currently studying the RSI and SMA for the Sentiments purpose. Perhaps when you started trading you used the standard indicators and you found yourself trapped at many times (and stopped out) and then later the price would go your way. Have a look at the attached image and think about it (indicators on the EURUSD hourly chart: 14 RSI, 50 SMA...
What is HMV?
To validate your theory is necessary a live analysis I guess.
Thanks
  • #130
  • Sep 8, 2019 4:25am Sep 8, 2019 4:25am
Quoting Merka
{quote} What is HMV? To validate your theory is necessary a live analysis I guess. Thanks
HMV = Herd Mentality Validation. You can check George AUS's thread.

In terms of validating my theory as I said I just started the research by making use of the tools that are already available for us (using standard settings first). Part of my study is to use Djamal's uploaded setups (for comparison purposes - this will help me at adjusting the settings). Of course to do that you have to understand Djamal's concepts and terminology. Note the use of these indicators will form probably 1% to 3% of my trading. I still trade George's Targets Method (of which SentiFX's method is closely related).

I do not mean to deviate from SentiFX's thread. I am just answering that part of the software that he uses - if he can't share it is understandable as trading is not for the lazy.
  • #131
  • Sep 8, 2019 5:00am Sep 8, 2019 5:00am
I think the OP is looking at situations when the retail market is heavily long or short in their positioning and then focussing on the market structure to look
for possible entries in the opposite direction. Any markets that are 50/50 or 60/40 are to be avoided.

I am not sure what percentage he would consider as heavily one sided ?

There are plenty of brokers that offfer market sentiment / order book positioning of their clients such as IG, Dukascopy, Oanda etc. often delayed by 15-30 minutes. Although you could also see that by zooming out the chart & look at higher timeframes from the bigger picture.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #132
  • Sep 8, 2019 5:05am Sep 8, 2019 5:05am
Quoting Shabs19
I think the OP is looking at situations when the retail market is heavily long or short in their positioning and then focussing on the market structure to look for possible entries in the opposite direction. Any markets that are 50/50 or 60/40 are to be avoided. I am not sure what percentage he would consider as heavily one sided ? There are plenty of brokers that offfer market sentiment / order book positioning of their clients such as IG, Dukascopy, Oanda etc. often delayed by 15-30 minutes. Although you could also see that by zooming out the...
15 min delay isnt a problem imo - looking at FF most trading systems are using 15m+ charts
Necessity knows no law except to conquer
  • #133
  • Sep 8, 2019 5:39am Sep 8, 2019 5:39am
Quoting SentiFX
Liquidity Gap Fill to... the... tick... Look at the horizontal line on the cross hairs. Will mark up later. Scalpers could have grabbed quick pips on the fill. Swing traders would have caught most of the move. {image}
Market pulled back slightly, then to continue the trend up. It all depends which is your trading timeframe, market structure imo did not indicate selling pressure.

I would be interested to know what sentiment was at that time for EURUSD at US market close. (4th Sept 22.00 GMT)
Was it extremely retail bullish ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #134
  • Sep 8, 2019 6:05am Sep 8, 2019 6:05am
Hi Sentifx,

Please count me in also. Thank.
  • #135
  • Sep 8, 2019 8:19am Sep 8, 2019 8:19am
pls count me in, thx
  • #136
  • Sep 8, 2019 9:06am Sep 8, 2019 9:06am
I just recieved a mail containing the previous weeks analysis, and it was really open minding, did you?

Thanks for sending it, Charles!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #137
  • Sep 8, 2019 9:08am Sep 8, 2019 9:08am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Market pulled back slightly, then to continue the trend up. It all depends which is your trading timeframe, market structure imo did not indicate selling pressure. I would be interested to know what sentiment was at that time for EURUSD at US market close. (4th Sept 22.00 GMT) Was it extremely retail bullish ?
As you can see from the Timestamp - at that moment EURUSD was basically neutral at that point. However it was more of a "Buy" because of positioning since the beginning of the week (i.e. Retail was selling). That's why it is more to the left in the image than dead center.

Why did I take the trade long? The big bubble from last week's retail positioned Long had "popped" - i.e. it went from very large to very small - In other words stops were taken.

Since the liquidity pool of the long stops were removed - new liquidity pools started forming above price. WHY???

Because Retail started shorting at the wrong time as usual (AFTER LONG STOPS WERE TAKEN).

Wrong play by retail - easy trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.PNG Size: 101 KB
  • #138
  • Sep 8, 2019 9:12am Sep 8, 2019 9:12am
Hi Sentifx

My PM still unavailable due to my status as junior member...
  • #139
  • Sep 8, 2019 10:17am Sep 8, 2019 10:17am
Quoting SentiFX
{quote} As you can see from the Timestamp - at that moment EURUSD was basically neutral at that point.
Would it be right to say Horizontal division line is at 50% retail sentiment and the vertical division line retail positions Buy to the left & Sell on the right ?
The size of the disc is the retail trade volume ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #140
  • Sep 8, 2019 11:17am Sep 8, 2019 11:17am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Would it be right to say Horizontal division line is at 50% retail sentiment and the vertical division line retail positions Buy to the left & Sell on the right ? The size of the disc is the retail trade volume ?
Correct!
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